All-Brazil Thread

nyyanks773 · 10-05-12, 12:40 PM

looking forward to it, like your analysis on the games! keep up the good work

silvap · 10-05-12, 01:06 PM

Ok, so here are my plays for tonight's Serie B action, with 5 games going on:

America RN -1 vs CRB (1.87) - América is a much better home team than overall, as they stand 6th in the Home Standings and only 10th overall. They also fare exceptionaly well against the bad teams, having won all 7 of their matches against the bottom half of the standing team, where CRB sits at 16th (17th in the away standings, with 9 losses in 13 road games.) CRB's only positive results on the road have been against teams ranked 14th or bellow. Although America struggles to get large wins (only 3 of their 9 home wins have been by multiple goals), CRB excells at getting beaten by many, with 6 of their 9 losses being by multiple goals, including 4-0 losses to 9th, 11th and 12th ranked teams - remember, America is 10th. While a push is certainly possible, a win for us is much more likely than CRB scrapping a draw or a win, so there is value on our play here.

Críciuma -0.5 vs Ceára - 1.5 units (1.95) - Excelent price for Críciuma here: They are 2nd overall and the best home team in the league, having won 12 of their 13 home games (!). Criciuma will be motivated to know they can claim the top spot in the rankings and put pressure on leader Vitória, who plays tomorrow. Now, Ceára is not a bad away team at all - they are actually better on the road - 8th overall and 7th in the away standings, but when we look at their results closely, we notice that only one of their 5 road wins has been against a team in the top half of the standings and the other four against teams ranked 15th and bellow (read: bad teams). Playing a unit and a half on this one.

B-O-A vs Paraná - Over 2.5 goals (1.93) - Here we have B_O_A, a team that floods goals both ways, against Paraná, a much tighter team that actually tends towards Under games. On the road, only 38% of Paranás games have seen 3 or more goals (although their last one had 4), but it is hard to overlook the fact that a stunning 77% (!) of B_OA's home games have gone over 2.5 goals and every single one of their last 10 overall games had at least, with B_O_A scoring in 9 of those and also conceding in 9 of those, showing that that can get the goals on both ends rather easily.

Ok guys, that is it for tonight, 3 plays for a total of 3.5 units, best of luck on your plays as always. Cheers

onacloud · 10-05-12, 01:39 PM

Love the BkofAma over and Criciuma

BOL tonight!

JESSE1014 · 10-05-12, 02:10 PM

Originally posted by silvap

Ok folks, some of you know that i have been posting my picks for Brazil's Serie A and B (top 2 divisions) for a couple of weeks. I have now decided to do a single thread from now on with all the picks in here.

Now, i can't promiss results as i am still relatively new to capping (only been doing my own for a few months) and Brazillian leagues are particularly swingy. What i can tell you is i put quite some work into the picks, doing statistical analysis, reading news about injuries and key information and watching as many games as i can.

Last two posts have resulted in 5 units up, so hopefully we can keep the profits in.

All plays are for one unit unless otherwise stated and prices are in brackets, european style, at pinnacle.

Best of luck on your plays

Will post some Serie B games in a few minutes.

Cheers

Glad you started a thread Silva! I can totally Vouch for the man, he does great write ups and knows every team in the brazilian leagues to a T. Will follow you a lot and provide insight/opinion as well!

Good Luck tonight bud!

silvap · 10-05-12, 02:27 PM

thank you for the kind words Jesse, hopefully we'll get off on a good start tonight.

note - Edited the post because autocorrect corrected B-O-A to "BkofAma" for whatever reason...

dk70 · 10-05-12, 03:32 PM

silvap, what are your thoughts on Joinville -103 @ Gremio Barueri?

Joinville's a top team (5th place) but they are awful on the road. Thankfully, they are playing a bad team who happens to be bad at home. A good spot to get a much needed win. Any leans or thoughts about the lineups? THanks

silvap · 10-05-12, 04:25 PM

hey dk70, had looked into that one but felt value was sort of borderline, i guess joinville should get the win there, but they are pretty bad on the road, with 4 losses in their last 5 away matches, so didn't feel that trigger happy to jump on their bandwagon. Even against "bad teams", Joinville only has one win in 7 matches against teams in the bottom half of the standings.

Omaga · 10-05-12, 04:36 PM

Silvap all three match-ups look strong. Good Luck tonight! Its a beautiful night here!

dk70 · 10-05-12, 04:59 PM

Thanks for the info Silvap.

Bluedragon · 10-05-12, 07:25 PM

fukkin america screwed my parlay with ml and the over in BkofAma, which hit in like 2 and half minutes...fuuuukkkkkk.

nice picks though man

nyyanks773 · 10-05-12, 07:53 PM

1-1 so far, lets go criciuma!

swordsandtequila · 10-05-12, 09:28 PM

Nothing like a late goal winner

silvap · 10-05-12, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by swordsandtequila

Nothing like a late goal winner

Tell me about it man! Was only able to watch the last 10 minutes (1-1 at the time), with Criciuma pressing hard for the win but Ceára looking dangerous on the counter. Last second goal to get the win was great, good to start the thread with some profit and good mojo.
Some strangeness all around in these games, with America going up 1-0, allowing mediocre CRB to turn the game to 1-3 and fight back to tie it 3-3, unfortunatly losing our bet. Also, B-OA match cashing the over in 15 minutes with 3 early goals and then not a single one after that, not that i am complaining.

So we go with 2 wins and a loss for the day, cashing our 1.5 unit play and profiting therefore a unit and a half for the nice, so we'll take it.
Plenty of games tomorrow, with 7 Serie A and 2 Serie B matches taking place, will look into them tomorrow and post the plays i find.

Cheers guys

pokerwhiz90 · 10-05-12, 11:57 PM

nice!

mbcoutinho · 10-06-12, 12:14 AM

Originally posted by silvap

Tell me about it man! Was only able to watch the last 10 minutes (1-1 at the time), with Criciuma pressing hard for the win but Ceára looking dangerous on the counter. Last second goal to get the win was great, good to start the thread with some profit and good mojo.
Some strangeness all around in these games, with America going up 1-0, allowing mediocre CRB to turn the game to 1-3 and fight back to tie it 3-3, unfortunatly losing our bet. Also, B-OA match cashing the over in 15 minutes with 3 early goals and then not a single one after that, not that i am complaining.

So we go with 2 wins and a loss for the day, cashing our 1.5 unit play and profiting therefore a unit and a half for the nice, so we'll take it.
Plenty of games tomorrow, with 7 Serie A and 2 Serie B matches taking place, will look into them tomorrow and post the plays i find.

Cheers guys

2-1 (+3.86 units)

TheSportsAnalyst · 10-06-12, 06:36 AM

Originally posted by mbcoutinho

2-1 (+3.86 units)

???

silvap · 10-06-12, 08:52 AM

Yeah, it's not actually that much, only up 1.5 units from last night, basically from cashing the bigger play and splitting the two others. Will look into tonight's games in a little while and post what i find

silvap · 10-06-12, 10:24 AM

Ok guys, as I said, plenty of games today, will try not to force any plays and just go with the ones that feel right.

Série B:

Atlético PR vs America Mineiro - Under 2.5 goals (2.09) - 62% of Atletico's home games have gone under as well as 69% of America's away games. In fact, Atletico is tied for the best home defense in the league, with only 7 goals conceded in 13 home matches. At the same time, they have struggled to score at home, with 17 goals (very little for a 6th place team, considering teams like Bragantino (18th ranked) and ABC (17th) have over 20 goals each. As for America, they have the top away defense as well, with 14 road goals conceded. Should be a tight match, i expect Atletico to get the win but did not like to the price.

Only liking this game in Brazil's second league, now looking into Serie A matches.

best of luck guys

silvap · 10-06-12, 11:43 AM

Serie A games:

São Paulo -0.5 vs Palmeiras (2.060) - São Paulo is an excelent home team, 3rd in the home standings with 10 wins in 13 matches and all the non-wins (2 losses and one tie coming against top 6 teams). Palmeiras is showing a lot of progress with their new coach, having won their last two matches - a home win to Ponte Preta (14th) and an away win against 19th Figueirense - neither a team of São Paulo's strenght. On the road this season, Palmeiras has 10 losses in 13 games. São Paulo has key striker Luis Fabiano back from injury and will play Lucas and Jadson, both rested after not playing in the national game vs Argentina that got canceled midweek. Palmeiras will surely put up a fight, but São Paulo's better team should get them all 3 points in this one.

São Paulo vs Palmeiras - over 2 and 2.5 goals (1.84) - Being conservative here and taking the possibility of pushing on a two goal match, but i believe we we'll see some goals tonight. Although only 46% of Sao Paulo's home games have gone over 2.5, 4 of their last 6 did have at least three goals. Having the offsence in full strenght with the players mentioned (Luis Fabiano, Lucas and Jadson) should help their chances of scoring as well. As for Palmeiras, a whopping 69% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals and they have scored 3 themselves in each of their 3 games with the new coach.

Náutico pk vs Corinthias (1.71) - Despite being only 13th overall, Náutico's home campaign has been splendid, as they sit 5th in the home standings, with only 2 losses in 13 matches. They have 6 wins and one tie in their last 7 home games. Corinthias is 8th overall and 9th in the home standings, with only 3 wins in their 13 away matches, all against bottom half of the standings teams. They will also miss Romarinho tonight, their emerging star and important offensive piece, suspended for tonights game. Although it is possible we see a tie here, and therefore a push, it will be very hard for Corinthias to get all the points in this one.

Fluminense pk/-0.5 vs Botafogo (1.84) - Once again being slightly conservative for what should be a great game. League leaders and probable champions Fluminense (they are now 6 points off struggling Atletico Mineiro) will host Botafogo (7th overall and 4th in the away standings). Fluminense has been on fire, winning 5 of their last 6 matches. Botafogo has struggled a bit recently, with no wins in their last 4 overall. There has also been talk of internal problems in the team, with Seedorf not happy with some team-mates. Altough Botafogo has a good away record, they have lost all their 3 matches against top 5 teams in the standings.

Gremio -1 vs Cruzeiro (1.94) - Staying on the conservative side here. Gremio sits 3rd in the brazillian league with the second best home record, with 10 wins in 13 matches, showing they are terrific in their own stadium. Although Cruzeiro sits in a decent 7th spot in the away standings (9th overall), with no wins in their last 6 overall and 6 losses in their last 8 away matches (their two wins in that span being against 12th Bahia and 20th Atletico GO). Tinga will miss the game for Cruzeiro. 7 of Gremio's 10 home wins were by multiple goals and 4 of those 6 recent away losses by Cruzeiro were also by more than one goal, so hoping Gremio can get this expected win by at least two here.

Atlético Mineiro -1/-1.5 vs Figueirense (1.87) - Atletico has struggled a lot lately but i think this is the game that sets them back on track. Still 2nd in the league and still with the best home record in Brazil - 10 wins and no losses in 13 home games, they will host Figueirense, one of the worst teams in the league, 19th both overall and in the away standings. Knowing they cannot afford to drop any more points and let Fluminense escape even further, Atletico should go hard for the win here. In their 5 wins against teams in the bottom half of the standings, 4 were by multiple goals for Atletico. Caio, one of Figueirense's key players this season, has fractured his toe and will not play.

These are my plays tonight guys, best of luck on yours. Cheers

krimmer2 · 10-06-12, 12:00 PM

good luck with these great write ups as well, looking to follow someone good with the footy!

JESSE1014 · 10-06-12, 02:54 PM

Good Luck today Silva made a little parlay with sao, vasco and atheletico, sao looking good, vasco has extra player so hopefully should notch one in soon, good luck!

Unsteeled101 · 10-06-12, 03:17 PM

Sao lookin good

agree with jese vasco might score ht

JESSE1014 · 10-06-12, 03:21 PM

Originally posted by Unsteeled101

Sao lookin good

agree with jese vasco might score ht

Hey Unsteeled good to see you, Palmerias red card is very nice to so that should help with the over, Vasco yet to score yet so hopefully second half they can put one in!

Unsteeled101 · 10-06-12, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by JESSE1014

Hey Unsteeled good to see you, Palmerias red card is very nice to so that should help with the over, Vasco yet to score yet so hopefully second half they can put one in!

Agree

Unsteeled101 · 10-06-12, 03:35 PM

3:0 mate !

JESSE1014 · 10-06-12, 03:41 PM

Very nice, i need vasco to score!!!!!!!!!!!!

silvap · 10-06-12, 03:42 PM

São Paulo cashes the over and barring something bizarre will cash the moneyline as well, good to get these two after the best home defense and best away defense in Série B combined for a 9 goal game on our under. Náutico was up 1-0 but is now tied with half an hour to go

JESSE1014 · 10-06-12, 04:04 PM

WTF Vasco, same thing happned to me early on a french ligue 2 game, dijon vs angers, dijon had two red cards in 50th minute and angers couldnt even score, game ended 0-0 ugh!!!!

JESSE1014 · 10-06-12, 04:08 PM

Went to change and vasco goal!!!!!!!!!!!!1

JESSE1014 · 10-06-12, 04:09 PM

Silva hope your here need quick advice, no way Atheletico doesnt beat fig right see parlay below

2) BET ID=392338152

Parlay (3 Teams)	10/06/12 14:58 ET
bet 200.00 to win 775.00	Result: Pending

(3508) - Brazil Serie A - Draw No Bet & Adjusted Line - 90 Minutes Only
Atletico GO Vasco da Gama	10/06/12(15:20 ET) Vasco da Gama -200

(3508) - Brazil Serie A - Draw No Bet & Adjusted Line - 90 Minutes Only
Atletico ** Figueirense	10/06/12(17:30 ET) Atletico ** -1200

(3508) - Brazil Serie A - Draw No Bet & Adjusted Line - 90 Minutes Only
Sao Paulo Palmeiras	10/06/12(15:00 ET) Sao Paulo -1.5 (+200)

silvap · 10-06-12, 09:12 PM

Sorry Jesse, i was out with friends, but I see you cashed your very nice parlay easily there ; )

Excelent night in Brazil, as our plays went 5-1-1 for a total profit of 3.23 units on the day.

After getting off on the wrong foot with the Serie B bet, pretty much everything went right in Brazil's top division:

Sao Paulo got the easy 3-0 win against Palmeiras, cashing both our over and moneyline bets

Nautico got the 2-1 win against Corinthias

Atletico steamrolled Figueirense for a 6-0 win

Gremio went down 0-1 to Cruzeiro but managed to turn the game around and get us a push at 2-1

and Fluminense got their expected though win at home versus Botafogo by 1-0

All in all i think we can say a pretty good night for the bankroll in a though league to keep a profit.

No games in Brazil for the next couple of days, 3 Serie B games on Tuesday and then some Serie A games on wednsday.

Best of luck on all your plays guys

Omaga · 10-06-12, 10:23 PM

Silvap good night..hope you keep posting, you've got good write-ups.

krimmer2 · 10-07-12, 04:08 AM

yes silvap fabulous stuff i will keep following you, i was cross matching your picks with a british forum and the sao paulo over 2.5 was the most popular banker of the day , well done.

pokerwhiz90 · 10-08-12, 03:39 AM

nice! keep it up