Every Capper is a dart thrower (diverted Service Plays)

[Greed Is Good]

Airtroop-
Do you do that for all the games? Or is there games you can look at and say right off the bat the books have it right and I'm not going to waste my time.

It is another full time job which I would never have the time for. I would rather just pay for someones abilities just like any other service. It's tough to weed through all the dishonest BS in this industry. There is always someone trying to get ya. I guess you could say I enjoy being a capper of the cappers. LOL

[TheProdigy8199]

Air troop's way of handicapping a game is his own personal way of doing it. Everyone does it differently it's all about finding what works for you. Me personally I think the fact that I'm a sports junkie and sports bettor myself helps me when I handicap games. By knowing the sports you cap you see things that stats don't tell you. Air troop says college football is the hardest I find it the easiest. Pro sports are the toughest in my option only because it is a job to most of these guys and that's it. In college kids play the ge Formosa paychecks and actually put their all into the games. Privation and heart have a lot to do with sports and especially handicapping. I think once a player gets to the pro level they lose some of that drive. That's why people all the time in this forum say that the NBA is rigged. A lot of the time it has to do with a te being tired or unmotivated for the game

[Anunnaki]

8-2 so far...Hoopsgoofy

[Anunnaki]

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[AirTroop]

Airtroop-
Do you do that for all the games? Or is there games you can look at and say right off the bat the books have it right and I'm not going to waste my time.

It is another full time job which I would never have the time for. I would rather just pay for someones abilities just like any other service. It's tough to weed through all the dishonest BS in this industry. There is always someone trying to get ya. I guess you could say I enjoy being a capper of the cappers. LOL

I do all games at first then whittle it down to anywhere from 0-7'ish picks per week. When I first look at the lines, yeah, I jump to conclusions such as "No way!" or "Right on!". After I get to work however; I put all of those things I listed and much, much more into play and frankly; when it's all over and done with, I have a VERY tough time accepting many of my own FINAL conclusions... I release them with more doubt than confidence when it's time to pull the trigger. I just try and remind myself that my system works and bite my fingernails until the final whistle and who-lah -- I won.

It's a very strange field. As the other poster mentioned, we all have a different way of doing it; especially when it comes to pros versus amateurs (in football once again -- I'm halfa$$ed at B-Ball at best and I don't do any other sports). Take the Detroit @ the Packers last year for example. No matter what I did, I kept coming up with the Pack blowing the Lions out even without Aaron Rodgers in the mix but the books at one point, a few minutes before kickoff had Detroit up from 3.5 to 6! I am NEVER confident until the game's over as I mentioned - on ANY game - but I'm telling you, this is just ONE of a hundred examples each year I go thru. I kept wondering what Vegas knew that I didn't know with that game. Turns out (as we all know now), I was right, the public was wrong and so was Vegas.

I wonder if any other cappers out there release plays based on their systems when they're brain is telling them "No way!" and their system is saying "Yes way!"?

[andywend]

Green Bay locked up the #1 seed and any analysis you might do for each game is not relevant due to the situation.

Vegas wasn't wrong and you weren't right unless you handicapped that the GB QB backup would have this kind of game:

GB: M. Flynn 31-44, 480 yds, 6 TDs, 1 INT

The only reason why GB won the game or even stayed within a touchdown was due to Flynn's far better than expected performance.

It is another full time job which I would never have the time for. I would rather just pay for someones abilities just like any other service.

If you don't have the time to handicap the games in the manner you want to, then adjust your bets accordingly.

Paying a handicapper for his supposed abilities is INSANE because if the handicapper truly has ability, the line will move as soon as his pick is released thus eliminating any possible edge the pick might have had.

[heleanth]

I don't agree that every handicapper is a dart thrower. They are not. Some are coin flippers. Some are "draw a card out of the deck"ers. Others simply close their eyes and point at the sheet and see what comes up. Certainly, they are not all dart throwers.

[TheProdigy8199]

Green Bay locked up the #1 seed and any analysis you might do for each game is not relevant due to the situation.

Vegas wasn't wrong and you weren't right unless you handicapped that the GB QB backup would have this kind of game:

GB: M. Flynn 31-44, 480 yds, 6 TDs, 1 INT

The only reason why GB won the game or even stayed within a touchdown was due to Flynn's far better than expected performance. If you don't have the time to handicap the games in the manner you want to, then adjust your bets accordingly.

Paying a handicapper for his supposed abilities is INSANE because if the handicapper truly has ability, the line will move as soon as his pick is released thus eliminating any possible edge the pick might have had.

I like that you brought up the Matt Flynn point. That just goes to show that handicapping is not an exact science and things don't always work according to plan....just as Vegas isn't always right with the lines they put out either. Vegas compensated for the absence of Rodgers and expected Flynn to have a sub-par / mediocre performance at best...Nostradamus himself couldn't have predicted that Flynn would break the franchise record. There are flaws to every system that is used, whether your making the lines or trying to handicap the lines, thats just the way it is...if it was that easy to handicap a game and conisistantly produce winners then everyone would be doing it and they wouldn't be trolling around here looking for an edge.


I don't think it's insane to pay for a handicappers services and I think it's pretty hypocritical of you to say that sitting in a forum geared towards providing picks that someone else has paid for. Not all handicappers opinions move lines...line movement has nothing to do with what side someone is picking, it all has to do with the amount of money on each side.

Take this into consideration....if there is only 1 game on the board for the day and all of the money is say on the favorite to cover, then they will move the line up in order to get more action on the other side in order to even out. If there are alot of small bets on the favorite and a handful of bettors go out and risk say 1 million dollars on the underdog to cover, the line will shift in the opposite direction ( RLM ) even though a majority of the bettors ( percentage wise ) are on the favorite, the big money is on the underdog. If a handicapper has clients who are betting big money on games then yes in theory their plays could move lines, but I don't know of anyone who when they release a play the lines move based solely on their pick. I think it has more to do with the influx of money coming in on that one team than it does with the actual pick. You can usually find some kind of value in almost any game on one side or the other...granted their are some games that are sharply lined but if you are any good at handicapping you will be able to tell the difference between a hard and soft line.

[AirTroop]

Re: the Green Bay-Lions-Flynn analogy -- I agree in principle that nobody could've predicted a record breaking performance by the backup QB. On the other hand, I had the luxury of watching Flynn subbing in the 2nd half the previous game & there was no noticible dropoff in play at that skill position; perhaps even a BOOST. I could tell the team enjoyed playing with this guy and had confidence in him... thus the 15%-20% situational vs the stats stuff I alluded to earlier -- that was the game-changer to me when I mailed the pick.

To another point -- I don't understand how a capper can say "GOTW!", "GOTY!", etc. After decades of doing this stuff on an amateur/semi-pro basis, I've learned the hard way everytime I lay the $$$ and encourage others to do so on a play I feel ULTRA-confident about, I'm wrong less than I'm right. It's frustrating but on the other hand, I've noticed the same with the so-called "big boys" who tout the same. Money management is overrated in my opinion. I bet the same amount on EVERY play I predict, even if I feel I should wager more. It took me a VERY long time to realize how important that approach really is... at least... to MOI.

[EASY_MONEY72]

26-13 and up 14 units. yeah thats dart throwing

[Blackroc78]

26-13 and up 14 units. yeah thats dart throwing

Who's 26-13 lover of tout?

[Hurls]

Thanks to everyone that is posting stuff that we can all read and get info from, how come every thread that is like this that we all talk in somehow turns into people shilling for someone. Annuki- you only post Hoopsguru and do nothing else here, whoever they are picks the whole card almost everyday and I have looked most days doesnt even hit 50%. Thats fine that he/she might be on a mini streak right now but it is obvious that you have some sort of connection or something to gain from the Goofu and thats fine. If you have something to add that might help us fine but just to say he is great helps no one. Post some stats, records?

[chunk]

It's truly refreshing to see that there are those that understand that the edge is small and what it takes to gain an edge in the first place. There are many in this forum who need to take much of the info in this thread seriously. There are just so many who do not have realistic expectations when it comes to wagering on sports.

[PLF]

Well said.

[WILLIE]

Airtroop-
Do you do that for all the games? Or is there games you can look at and say right off the bat the books have it right and I'm not going to waste my time.

It is another full time job which I would never have the time for. I would rather just pay for someones abilities just like any other service. It's tough to weed through all the dishonest BS in this industry. There is always someone trying to get ya. I guess you could say I enjoy being a capper of the cappers. LOL

I agree, most handicappers I've ever seen will have hot and cold streaks (I said most, because a few have never seen a winning streak in their life). But the long time decent 'cappers are good to follow after 4-6 bad picks days in my oppinion.

[EASY_MONEY72]

no - the problem is - most people on this forum are cynical, follow the big name cappers that are terrible, and just want free picks.

When they see a good Capper, or they are told that someone is a good capper - rather than research it, they just bitch and moan....or accuse people of shilling or (as I have been the past couple days) being the actual frikking tout....lol. despite the fact that the tout cut me off from his very picks.

Most of you are too blind to see the forest for the trees....that is where the real problem is.

I am not going to "tout" anyone here....but I could give you one capper that is up 45 units to date. and second capper that has won 7 days in a row (that I have followed for a year and I know he is ALWAYS solid....especially in baseball

There is a third capper posted here fairly regularly that gets NO PLAY at all - no one even hardly follows him despite the fact that he is posted here regularly...and he is pretty good as well.

Yet - the typical moron here would rather fade Lang or Quinn or bitch about the cappers on covers and vegasinsider etc etc etc (i wonder why cappers coming from a site that advertises sportsbooks always loses....hmmmmmmmmmmm you would think those sites want the best cappers - right?)

Yes, you see there are very good cappers - you people dont want good cappers though. you want free picks and you want them to win every single day....lol

ah eff it lets all just keep fading quinn and lose.

[bettilimbroke999]

I average 80% winners, just buy my subscription for 500 bucks a month and my unbelievable priceless talents can be yours

[SFGiants93]

I average 80% winners, just buy my subscription for 500 bucks a month and my unbelievable priceless talents can be yours

Ya, but you don't give an extra month of plays for free like I do when my clients don't win.

This gets all the suckers to buy everytime. Just because I offer an extra month, they think they're getting a great deal. What they fail to realize is that if a capper can't win, what good is another month of losing?

[WILLIE]

no - the problem is - most people on this forum are cynical, follow the big name cappers that are terrible, and just want free picks.

When they see a good Capper, or they are told that someone is a good capper - rather than research it, they just bitch and moan....or accuse people of shilling or (as I have been the past couple days) being the actual frikking tout....lol. despite the fact that the tout cut me off from his very picks.

Most of you are too blind to see the forest for the trees....that is where the real problem is.

I am not going to "tout" anyone here....but I could give you one capper that is up 45 units to date. and second capper that has won 7 days in a row (that I have followed for a year and I know he is ALWAYS solid....especially in baseball

There is a third capper posted here fairly regularly that gets NO PLAY at all - no one even hardly follows him despite the fact that he is posted here regularly...and he is pretty good as well.

Yet - the typical moron here would rather fade Lang or Quinn or bitch about the cappers on covers and vegasinsider etc etc etc (i wonder why cappers coming from a site that advertises sportsbooks always loses....hmmmmmmmmmmm you would think those sites want the best cappers - right?)

Yes, you see there are very good cappers - you people dont want good cappers though. you want free picks and you want them to win every single day....lol

ah eff it lets all just keep fading quinn and lose.

You've hit the nail on the head. Too many on here want a magic formula for winning EVERY day, but are not happy to only win 5 to 15% per month over the long haul. That's 60 to 180% for a year. It always amazes me to hear that someone has sent their money to a stock broker and are very pleased to make 10-20% every year and even except the down year like this past one where it was only up 5.5%, but raise hell when the 'lousy tout' that they use or follow for free on here is only up 5% for the month...How dare him!! Here is a little chart to show some 'reality.'

Five Best One Year Performances (in %) of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

1933, +63.74%
1954, +43.96%
1935, +38.53%
1975, +38.32%
1958, +33.96%

And yes there is a lot of money made off Sportsbooks' advertising and affliliates' programs off of the losers, not the winners.

[UZI Suicide]

Yet - the typical moron here would rather fade Lang

So fading a guy that makes me a nice profit every fukking year is considered moronic? If that's the case call me King of the Morons!

P.S. Lang is currently on a 4-17 run.

[TheProdigy8199]

So fading a guy that makes me a nice profit every fukking year is considered moronic? If that's the case call me King of the Morons!

P.S. Lang is currently on a 4-17 run.

Fading Lang or following a decent capper are pretty much the same thing. UZI apparently fades the same guy each and everyday and it has shown in the past to be profitable. He found a system that works and pays out in the long run...good for him. It's the same as following a descent handicapper ( one who hits at least 53%/yr ) each and everyday. It's all about discipline. UZI fades a guy he dislikes not only cause it pays, but because he gets to make fun of the capper as well. It's easy for him to go against his plays.

Most people don't have the discipline to only play a certain capper's plays. They like to troll around forums like these in order to jump from capper to capper looking for the "best play", the HUGE dime plays...the GOY, GOM, GOW type plays.

[EASY_MONEY72]

So fading a guy that makes me a nice profit every fukking year is considered moronic? If that's the case call me King of the Morons!

P.S. Lang is currently on a 4-17 run.

UZI - actually no - I have no problem with the "FADE LANG" option although - I dont think it is anywhere as good as you make it out to be unless the units are posted (which SBR DOES NOT ALLOW)

And LANG was quite hot there for a while - which YOU ALWAYS CONVENIENTLY FORGET TO MENTION. IF I AM A SUPPOSED TOUT OR SOME OF THESE OTHER GUYS ARE FOR OTHER CAPPERS - Then I would have to wonder why you push the LANG FADE so hard? It could be argued that you are lang, and your marketing play is just a different one for as much as you push fading this guy and that it is the best thing since sliced bread.

I am not saying that is the case but i think it's funny that no one consideres that possibility just because you are pushing an agenda for some reason.

All that said, I think the LANG FADE is a great addition to using a solid capper (IF YOU CAN FIND ONE).

Again, I would take any capper that hit at 55-65% or better along with Lang as great options for capping games.

i personally follow Lang on here just to make sure that the cappers I like are not on the same side as him because I dont want him jinxing my cappers plays

The whole point is that no one wants to research and find someone good. There are good ones out there, and as I said, there are three I have followed closely here for months, and they are all consistently good. Again - I wont mention the three because I will suddenly somehow become a "tout" for all of them, I am sure.

[UZI Suicide]

And LANG was quite hot there for a while - which YOU ALWAYS CONVENIENTLY FORGET TO MENTION. IF I AM A SUPPOSED TOUT OR SOME OF THESE OTHER GUYS ARE FOR OTHER CAPPERS - Then I would have to wonder why you push the LANG FADE so hard? It could be argued that you are lang, and your marketing play is just a different one for as much as you push fading this guy and that it is the best thing since sliced bread.

First of all, Einstein, I'm not pushing anything. I post Lang's plays and people ask me questions on how I fade Lang, and I answer. If that is "pushing Lang so hard" your perception is funny.

As for LANG BEING HOT AND ME CONVENIENTLY FORGETTING TO MENTION IT, that is utter nonsense. I post Lang's records at the end of each and every day in the thread. Nothing is hidden. Lang was hot last month, but all that he won he has already given back and more.

The rest of your post about how I might be Lang is just fukking retarded.

[bettilimbroke999]

Ya, but you don't give an extra month of plays for free like I do when my clients don't win.

This gets all the suckers to buy everytime. Just because I offer an extra month, they think they're getting a great deal. What they fail to realize is that if a capper can't win, what good is another month of losing?

I offer a bonus, if I tank the first month they get a coupon for the next 3 months for the price of 1. My customers never feel like losers bc they're always winning bonuses

[Greed Is Good]

Most people don't have the discipline to only play a certain capper's plays. They like to troll around forums like these in order to jump from capper to capper looking for the "best play", the HUGE dime plays...the GOY, GOM, GOW type plays.

That seems to be more than a few peoples problem: Over betting highly marketed plays as if they are guaranteed to win. There is a reason every successful capper has a system, be it flat or Kelly betting. The system needs to be followed to produce the results they claim. If players pick and choose the plays they want because of the marketing, or a feeling, or even based off the cappers past record, they are taking a lot of the skill out it and relying on luck which is not the side to be on even if they have hit 75% of their last GOY's. I know a lot of the really successful people on here claim people should only follow a play if it "makes sense". The thing is I don’t have the many hours it takes to dedicate to capping on my own and figure these things out. I research the tout, I pay for their service, I play there system exactly as told, I play every pick as told, I track all plays. If things get off track for a while and the capper goes on a losing streak I take a break and let them get it out of there system before I jump back on board. I also diversify between at least 2-3 cappers in each sport much like a stock portfolio. I know I could do better, especially if I didn’t have to drop $500 for a season worth of picks. But in the end I make a profit and I get the action I love.

[WILLIE]

that seems to be more than a few peoples problem: Over betting highly marketed plays as if they are guaranteed to win. There is a reason every successful capper has a system, be it flat or kelly betting. The system needs to be followed to produce the results they claim. If players pick and choose the plays they want because of the marketing, or a feeling, or even based off the cappers past record, they are taking a lot of the skill out it and relying on luck which is not the side to be on even if they have hit 75% of their last goy's. I know a lot of the really successful people on here claim people should only follow a play if it "makes sense". The thing is i don’t have the many hours it takes to dedicate to capping on my own and figure these things out. I research the tout, i pay for their service, i play there system exactly as told, i play every pick as told, i track all plays. If things get off track for a while and the capper goes on a losing streak i take a break and let them get it out of there system before i jump back on board. I also diversify between at least 2-3 cappers in each sport much like a stock portfolio. I know i could do better, especially if i didn’t have to drop $500 for a season worth of picks. But in the end i make a profit and i get the action i love.

ditto