Every Capper is a dart thrower (diverted Service Plays)

[Hurls]

Its just a fact

[King B]

I'm beginning to believe it more and more !! Actually, i think if they threw darts they'd win about 50% of the time !! Some crappers are a lot worse than 50% even !!

[Joe Dogs]

More marketing then ability,for the most part.

[Hurls]

not a knock on any one capper but this time of year and especially and most of the other time it is just so much about luck and nothing else. BO LUCK everyone tonight we will need it

[Hurls]

More marketing then ability,for the most part.

you are 100% correct

[King B]

Well, they marketed the Ferringo GOY well, now deliver the WIN !!

[Hurls]

Well, they marketed the Ferringo GOY well, now deliver the WIN !!

I like Ferringo's play I think its a good pick IMO

[TheProdigy8199]

Its just a fact

I know what you mean but I completely disagree. Granted there are so called "cappers" out there that are simply salesmen and nothing else but there are a few guys who actually handicap games and come up with plays that actually make sense. You can't expect to win every play there is a lot of luck that goes into it. Anything goes in the last 2 mins of a basketball game. All you can expect is that your handicapper gives you the plays that offer the best chance to win. If you are falling for GOY GOW type plays than you are just as much to blame for falling for those kind of marketing ploys.

[Renegades]

everybody and their sister is on Missouri though

[King B]

I like Ferringo's play I think its a good pick IMO

Time will well my friend, time will paint the picture !!

[Hurls]

I know what you mean but I completely disagree. Granted there are so called "cappers" out there that are simply salesmen and nothing else but there are a few guys who actually handicap games and come up with plays that actually make sense. You can't expect to win every play there is a lot of luck that goes into it. Anything goes in the last 2 mins of a basketball game. All you can expect is that your handicapper gives you the plays that offer the best chance to win. If you are falling for GOY GOW type plays than you are just as much to blame for falling for those kind of marketing ploys.

Who are the guys that you have had followed or had dealings with that you trust/play? Any info helps, I agree with the GOY ploy thing but when one of your cappers has bigger play you just stay at the same level? you always flat bet?

[Hurls]

everybody and their sister is on Missouri though

I know I hate when there is a ton of people on the same game. Vegas and the line makers always know how to make a line tough especially with the major conferences, so unless it is a small conf in middle of the year a game where all the cappers think it is huge value and big play there is something we are missing.

[Game70681]

I have always had success with the animal and he's been in business for over 30 years.

[TheProdigy8199]

Who are the guys that you have had followed or had dealings with that you trust/play? Any info helps, I agree with the GOY ploy thing but when one of your cappers has bigger play you just stay at the same level? you always flat bet?

I tend to cap my own games but I will look at 2 or 3 "cappers" plays here to see what they have an opinion on. I like jimmy Boyd. I think he's a good capper. Robert ferringo even though he likes to play every game on the board he does know what he's doing. And I've recently been following Lee Earnest, he's new but seems solid... Doesn't hide or pad his record and actually bets the plays he puts out. People like demarco, budin and them aren't really cappers so I don't even pay attention. If one of the guys I'm following has a bigger than normal play I'll look at it but I never just blindly follow a play. If it makes sense to me I'll play it and accept what happensWin or lose. It's when people just blindly follow or fade that they seem to get upset over a play. A play should makes sense to you. The whole point of handicapping is trying to put the person in the best position to win. The rest is out of anyone's hands

[Vegas Jake]

Just out of cuirousity do you guys know what a top handicapper over 1,000 plays would be at percentage wise?

How about even slightly lower than that, not the very best but the long term percentage of a solid winning capper especially in top pro sports like the NBA or NFL over the longterm? Like what Billy Walters tells Michael Konik in the book Smart Money that he wants to win at what rate?

[HoulihansTX]

Just out of cuirousity do you guys know what a top handicapper over 1,000 plays would be at percentage wise?

RAS/end thread

[skjjb4]

look at Dwaynd Bryant

[Blackroc78]

I tend to cap my own games but I will look at 2 or 3 "cappers" plays here to see what they have an opinion on. I like jimmy Boyd. I think he's a good capper. Robert ferringo even though he likes to play every game on the board he does know what he's doing. And I've recently been following Lee Earnest, he's new but seems solid... Doesn't hide or pad his record and actually bets the plays he puts out. People like demarco, budin and them aren't really cappers so I don't even pay attention. If one of the guys I'm following has a bigger than normal play I'll look at it but I never just blindly follow a play. If it makes sense to me I'll play it and accept what happensWin or lose. It's when people just blindly follow or fade that they seem to get upset over a play. A play should makes sense to you. The whole point of handicapping is trying to put the person in the best position to win. The rest is out of anyone's hands

only way to do it!

[soxwin]

Just out of cuirousity do you guys know what a top handicapper over 1,000 plays would be at percentage wise?

How about even slightly lower than that, not the very best but the long term percentage of a solid winning capper especially in top pro sports like the NBA or NFL over the longterm? Like what Billy Walters tells Michael Konik in the book Smart Money that he wants to win at what rate?

54-56% based on -110 lines. Short term(100-250 plays) , you can win at a higher rate. but overall 54-56% is going to be the best you will find. If anyone tells you otherwise, they are lying or playing a chase system.

[AirTroop]

54-56% based on -110 lines. Short term(100-250 plays) , you can win at a higher rate. but overall 54-56% is going to be the best you will find. If anyone tells you otherwise, they are lying or playing a chase system.

That's a FACT. If you can find someone who consistently averages 54%-plus longterm in any sport, you've found yourself a real capper who puts in long hours and not a dart thrower.

[Dan Kelly]

Here is the simple fact that most guys who follow touts forget - If someone is doing real, good work and coming up with a high percentage of winners, shortly after they bet themselves the line will have moved enough to make the picks worthless. Marketers, masquerading as handicappers, try to grab enough new fools every day to stay in business and pay their bills - that is their goal, if they get lucky and pick a couple of winners it helps their business incrementally and temporarily, until they regress back to line.

[Greed Is Good]

54-56% based on -110 lines. Short term(100-250 plays) , you can win at a higher rate. but overall 54-56% is going to be the best you will find. If anyone tells you otherwise, they are lying or playing a chase system.

56% over 1,000 plays with the right unit system (or even flat betting) = Serious

[Vegas Jake]

Good answers here. It's even probably actually closer to 54% or 53ish even but these are fine and I agree. Funny thing is people come on here and flip out after a bad night, etc... It gets real bad when a capper loses a bigger play which in reality it still only holds a 55% edge longterm.

I have no idea what these people think when they see a bigger selection, that it's not suppose to lose? or that it's suppose to win at a 70% rate? That will never happen ever. No one is that smart and for sure it's not going to happen in these main stream sports or this late in a year either. No one has the secret formula to win at that rate over the longterm but the good news once again is you don't need to win 70% to be ahead either.

Bottom line even the best cappers and best plays all end up losing 45 times out of 100. Most need to remember that the next time a guy they follow has an 0-3 night because everyone that does have them, it doesn't mean the guy sucks or is a dart thrower it's just called variance just like a 3-0 doesn't mean anything either.

In fact it's almost impossibile to tell a winning player from a losing one unless you are watching very closely and keeping records, etc... It amazes me how emotional people get over a few picks. It's all one long game at the end of the day. The edge is so small that you must do things almost perfect just to have one. All about having realistic expectations of 54% winners. Treat it like a longterm investment and it makes this all less stressfull also. Just my opinion.

[Hurls]

Good answers here. It's even probably actually closer to 54% or 53ish even but these are fine and I agree. Funny thing is people come on here and flip out after a bad night, etc... It gets real bad when a capper loses a bigger play which in reality it still only holds a 55% edge longterm.

I have no idea what these people think when they see a bigger selection, that it's not suppose to lose? or that it's suppose to win at a 70% rate? That will never happen ever. No one is that smart and for sure it's not going to happen in these main stream sports or this late in a year either. No one has the secret formula to win at that rate over the longterm but the good news once again is you don't need to win 70% to be ahead either.

Bottom line even the best cappers and best plays all end up losing 45 times out of 100. Most need to remember that the next time a guy they follow has an 0-3 night because everyone that does have them, it doesn't mean the guy sucks or is a dart thrower it's just called variance just like a 3-0 doesn't mean anything either.

In fact it's almost impossibile to tell a winning player from a losing one unless you are watching very closely and keeping records, etc... It amazes me how emotional people get over a few picks. It's all one long game at the end of the day. The edge is so small that you must do things almost perfect just to have one. All about having realistic expectations of 54% winners. Treat it like a longterm investment and it makes this all less stressfull also. Just my opinion.

thats was the point of this thread to see what people had to say, everyone always has all these comments about how no game is a lock and whatever, everyone knows that. The point is that I just would like to know who people have had dealings with and who is a legit capper not a hype guy. Everyone always talks about the 55% win rate but not many do it consistently. Who do you use and follow? Do they hit the percentage? Any thoughts would help.

[AirTroop]

(Mods, PLEASE don't punish me - I'm not mentioning names or trying to self-promote - I am a capper but not a tout -- I just believe this will add to the conversation! I will NEVER tout myself here -- I promise!!! If I'm breaking one of your rules, I'm unaware and I totally apologise!!!) -

Put it this-a-way: this year I tried out for one of the most famous (didn't say the best -- just one of the most famous) cappers in the biz for NFL only -- something I've been doing for fun and my own betting only for years and years. I was to email my NFL picks by 5 PM on FRIDAYS (of all days) to their office. In other words, I had no luxury of taking last minute injuries or other important nuances into consideration between 5 PM on Friday and kickoff time.

Bottom line is, it looks like I *might* be hired by the firm because I turned in a LEGIT 53.9% winning percentage and the firm told me "53.6% makes money for us and our clients" and the main guy is meeting with me in August, hopefully to discuss a contract. Part of the reason, I'm sure, is because all thru December and the postseason, I heated up and averaged over 60% ATS, which should tell you how crappy my percentages were prior to Week 11.

I hope this DID add to the behind the scenes part of the business and this discussion? And believe me -- to hit those numbers, I studied and worked probably and average of 60 hours per week just to SLIGHTLY beat the bookie and again, I've been capping NFL (only) since I was a young boy... started out just for fun and family contests and to date -- I'VE NEVER MADE A DIME selling my picks... just barely beating the bookies with my own betting.

It's a marathon, not a sprint.

[AirTroop]

Another point - I really, really believed I sucked because all of these other NFL cappers were touting their 65-75% records. Then I noticed I made more money betting on myself than following others over the years. And last year (53.9%) was by no means my best year -- normally I hit more like just around 55% but then again, I don't have to place my own bets by Friday afternoon every week either. Imagine how it felt when the day before the Bears game it was announced the FBI was investigating the team for major drug trafficking charges, just for example? Think I'd have changed my personal line? YOU BETCHYA!

[TheProdigy8199]

In the long run a capper needs to hit 53% in order to be profitable. That's all anyone can really ask for. There will be weeks where someone may hit 80% but the next week they may only hot 40%. That's just variance at work. With there being so many variables and so many things that can change the outcome of a game it's unrealistic to expect someone to hit vast majority of their plays. People on this site get upset over a losing day or week. Those are the people who tend to jump around following different cappers on different plays. In order to be profitable betting on sports you need to either cap the games yourself and accept the outcome or follow one or two cappers for the entire year. Jumping around will only put a strain on your bankroll.

[Hurls]

In the long run a capper needs to hit 53% in order to be profitable. That's all anyone can really ask for. There will be weeks where someone may hit 80% but the next week they may only hot 40%. That's just variance at work. With there being so many variables and so many things that can change the outcome of a game it's unrealistic to expect someone to hit vast majority of their plays. People on this site get upset over a losing day or week. Those are the people who tend to jump around following different cappers on different plays. In order to be profitable betting on sports you need to either cap the games yourself and accept the outcome or follow one or two cappers for the entire year. Jumping around will only put a strain on your bankroll.

To anyone that caps their own games seriously(like actually spends some time doesnt just pick for fun) what goes into your capping, I dont know if people guard this info or what but anything will help. Do you have a system, computer program? or do you just watch a ton of sports and use that for knowledge? thx

[TheProdigy8199]

Anyone can handicap a game. It takes work though. But yeah it helps if you watch the sport and know the teams you are working with. Stats will only tell you so much. There are other things that new to be taken into consideration. Line movement, certain situations Trends etc all need to be considered. There are no fancy programs or formulas to come up with the right play. You can put all the information in front of you but what it ultimately comes down to is personal opinion

[PLF]

Some really good posts here.

Enjoyed reading them and I agree with TP and Vegas Jake. Air Troop, you made some good points too. Best of luck to you.

[Hurls]

Anyone can handicap a game. It takes work though. But yeah it helps if you watch the sport and know the teams you are working with. Stats will only tell you so much. There are other things that new to be taken into consideration. Line movement, certain situations Trends etc all need to be considered. There are no fancy programs or formulas to come up with the right play. You can put all the information in front of you but what it ultimately comes down to is personal opinion

thx

[Anunnaki]

Hoopsgooroo throwing some lucky darts!!!

[Hurls]

Hoopsgooroo throwing some lucky darts!!!

who are you kidding you are hoopsgoofy

[AirTroop]

To anyone that caps their own games seriously(like actually spends some time doesnt just pick for fun) what goes into your capping, I dont know if people guard this info or what but anything will help. Do you have a system, computer program? or do you just watch a ton of sports and use that for knowledge? thx

We're all different and all sports are different. I cannot cap college football at all because there are so many situational things to bring into consideration (i.e., locker room material, rivalries, inconsistencies and so many other items). In the NFL, these are professionals and the stats themselves make up MUCH more - maybe around 80% - of the formula versus, I'm guessing, the opposite of the college game. Professional football players are more likely to act like a professional in any genre, which means they are more likely to shrug off items that would affect a college kid.

You are correct that we who are successful cappers - REAL cappers who put in REAL hours will never give away all of our secrets but I'll give you a few things I keep focused upon before kickoff each week. I assign a certain pt-partial-pt value on each -- fluidly:

*Weather reports -
*Offensive stats -
*Defensive stats -
*Injuries (I assign a pt/partial pt value to each player & position using many variables) -
*Ticket sales for home team - blackouts, empty home stadium equals very little advantage for home team -
*The referee team and their tendencies -
*Insider team blogs; lotsa good info in those (i.e., inner disruptions, disputes, individual leadership, etc.) -
*Travel from East to West, West to East, # of time zones, etc. Example: is the visiting team playing at a time they're used to having their 2nd cup of coffee and morning donut? -
*Stats, stats, STATS!!! Up to you to decide... all cappers use different ones to different degrees -
*The line movements and where the public is leaning... in general, I feel I'm better at winning than the general public is -
*Different PK? Different long-snapper? Different HOLDER even? All VERY important things to pay attention to -

Things I largely ignore or pay very SMALL attention to (maybe somewhere around 15-20% at most):

*Trends ATS; W-L records (They're PROS! Any given Sunday!); anything from prior years and most stats from the first few games... no team is the same from year to year -
*Locker room crap -- unless it's REALLY bad (i.e., all the NYJ "guarantees" -- they WERE a pt/partial-pt factor in many gms!) -
*Winning & losing streaks - they're important SOMETIMES but not as important as most feel they are -

Hope this gives some insight - obviously I've not given all my "secrets" but I most certainly don't use a spreadsheet to make my picks - I pretty much use a pen, a calculator and 10 sheets of paper (front AND back) and read, read, READ - making adjustments to my line all week long. It could go from +1.7 to +1.9 from one of these factors & I make personal notes for each one so if circumstances change I can go back. Notice no .5's? That's because I don't round up or down to a .5 or a whole number until my capping is finished for the week. Example: Center's injured and he's a Pro Bowler; taking his place is a rookie -- maybe that's worth a .2 pt adjustment one way or the other depending upon what I know about that rookie, see?

Sounds like a lot of work, huh? Well, I make a lot of money during the NFL season and it's worth the 40-60 hours + or - to me, PLUS I have the luxury of actually having the hours to spend doing it, which is why it's a valuable service to offer to those who don't... as long as you are straight up about it.

Hope this helps a bit :-)

[Hurls]

We're all different and all sports are different. I cannot cap college football at all because there are so many situational things to bring into consideration (i.e., locker room material, rivalries, inconsistencies and so many other items). In the NFL, these are professionals and the stats themselves make up MUCH more - maybe around 80% - of the formula versus, I'm guessing, the opposite of the college game. Professional football players are more likely to act like a professional in any genre, which means they are more likely to shrug off items that would affect a college kid.

You are correct that we who are successful cappers - REAL cappers who put in REAL hours will never give away all of our secrets but I'll give you a few things I keep focused upon before kickoff each week. I assign a certain pt-partial-pt value on each -- fluidly:

*Weather reports -
*Offensive stats -
*Defensive stats -
*Injuries (I assign a pt/partial pt value to each player & position using many variables) -
*Ticket sales for home team - blackouts, empty home stadium equals very little advantage for home team -
*The referee team and their tendencies -
*Insider team blogs; lotsa good info in those (i.e., inner disruptions, disputes, individual leadership, etc.) -
*Travel from East to West, West to East, # of time zones, etc. Example: is the visiting team playing at a time they're used to having their 2nd cup of coffee and morning donut? -
*Stats, stats, STATS!!! Up to you to decide... all cappers use different ones to different degrees -
*The line movements and where the public is leaning... in general, I feel I'm better at winning than the general public is -
*Different PK? Different long-snapper? Different HOLDER even? All VERY important things to pay attention to -

Things I largely ignore or pay very SMALL attention to (maybe somewhere around 15-20% at most):

*Trends ATS; W-L records (They're PROS! Any given Sunday!); anything from prior years and most stats from the first few games... no team is the same from year to year -
*Locker room crap -- unless it's REALLY bad (i.e., all the NYJ "guarantees" -- they WERE a pt/partial-pt factor in many gms!) -
*Winning & losing streaks - they're important SOMETIMES but not as important as most feel they are -

Hope this gives some insight - obviously I've not given all my "secrets" but I most certainly don't use a spreadsheet to make my picks - I pretty much use a pen, a calculator and 10 sheets of paper (front AND back) and read, read, READ - making adjustments to my line all week long. It could go from +1.7 to +1.9 from one of these factors & I make personal notes for each one so if circumstances change I can go back. Notice no .5's? That's because I don't round up or down to a .5 or a whole number until my capping is finished for the week. Example: Center's injured and he's a Pro Bowler; taking his place is a rookie -- maybe that's worth a .2 pt adjustment one way or the other depending upon what I know about that rookie, see?

Sounds like a lot of work, huh? Well, I make a lot of money during the NFL season and it's worth the 40-60 hours + or - to me, PLUS I have the luxury of actually having the hours to spend doing it, which is why it's a valuable service to offer to those who don't... as long as you are straight up about it.

Hope this helps a bit :-)

It does thank you very much