[KVB]

I bought KC/PITT OVER 50.5 earlier today, and now it's at 53.

lol

[Fidel_CashFlow]

lmao at Carr

[Fidel_CashFlow]

thanks for the sure win Carr

unbelievable brain fart LOL

[Fidel_CashFlow]

I guess thats how to make up for a bad loss is a easy win

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF UPSET basket has picked up the following moneylines...

113 UMASS +165 over FL INT

131 RUTGERS +140 over KANSAS

145 BOISE ST +135 over OK ST

I am looking at Duke over Baylor but can't find a moneyline I like and am also looking at E Mich over Buffalo but market forces may keep us off of that play.

The NCAAF UPSET Basket is currently up 3.44 units. When it takes a downturn, I will move it into the Total Return Fund. I should have put it in there from the beginning...

I have added to the NCAAF Upset Basket...

169 HOUSTON +110 over TEXAS TECH

179 OREGON ST +155 over NEVADA

201 USC +145 over TEXAS

207 FRESNO ST -102 over UCLA

E MICH continues to elude us as a play in this basket.

[KVB]

[KVB]

forgot about that angle...

Angle?

Surely you jest. I fear you don't realize what you have and how it can both hurt and help you.

But mostly that you don't realize what you have.

A couple of states come to mind, like Arizona and New fukkin York.

Angle?

Sharon is literally insulted and just called you a nasty name, not one appropriate for turtledoves.

She's fuming and I sent her to watch a nice PG movie, like...

[turtledoves]

week 2

[turtledoves]

movers vs nonmovers, live for both? how can you tell one adjustment from another without making your own fair line? how can you tell what the peers are doing without data sources/contacts/data insights into the action?

maybe the analysis will answer some of these questions. seems to be the same old song year after year for things I've been looking into so far

[KVB]

would rather not use it and watch than misuse it. prioritizing building capabilities to support this before others so i am betting my time analyzing it. been watching manually for now.

Was thinking herm after the htown stomp, but got confused when i saw you on mich st. is that why they moved mich st causing you to take them? did you take them for other reasons? is the approach to watch for over adjustments related to that? moving because action was coming on asu after earlier result?

passed the "angle" along to my associate who is looking at it and aware of it. don't mind losing every play this season if i can learn to fish. look at Motown?

cat is heating up, gonna ride it for week 2

I understand the confusion with Mich St, made the same error with Det but didn't post it.

The rule and what to watch is more important than what I bet, as you'll see...lol. I don't mind losing a couple of bets to prove a point.

Passed along to your associate? Surely you jest.

cat? I think you lost me there.

[KVB]

movers vs nonmovers, live for both? how can you tell one adjustment from another without making your own fair line? how can you tell what the peers are doing without data sources/contacts/data insights into the action?

maybe the analysis will answer some of these questions. seems to be the same old song year after year for things I've been looking into so far

Always making a line always. It always starts with a forecast, but if you can get to 50-50 with that forecast, you are just steps away from a winning one.

It seems I've gotten to a point where forecasts abound, it's just about shifting as the markets do between methods.

They really do the same thing every year, it really is the same old song and that analysis will prove it.

It even gets old. I've started compiling baskets to see where which bettors stand, including book bets and moves that we can id as sharper than others.

[KVB]

I bought KC/PITT OVER 50.5 earlier today, and now it's at 53....

Picked up Miami +3 today as well.

That's 2 NFL plays this week. I'm not tracking though.

I was thinking starting an NCAAF Road Teams Fund that holds plays that aren't in the UPSETS Basket.

I already have LSU, but I have 10, I may need to get 9.5 if I post.

[turtledoves]

[KVB]

The problem is, with that factor, you will never find any value scraping anything from the net. It's not the information, but how we use it. We can create info from the info we can get.

You would only be able to find a historical by creating your own record starting now. Even then, there you need to know what's relevant to track. That changes. So you need to know them all. You need to track until the cycle repeats itself.

Even then, it's some dirty shit. And even then, the only way to get something useful would be to hand input from my notebooks. Years worth, but it could be done. It's been done, info gleaned, then it was destroyed. These are live, dynamic markets, I can now track track the info in a more broad fashion, and we are adding volume, a whole new dynamic.

Think about this, and maybe I posted it, but say you take every game where...

...You know what, there are three teams on the field the player teams and the ref, just like there are Protons, neutrons and electrons.

I think we go there now.

I have things to do today, a light day made busy, but I will make sure we can chat soon.

Also, you are right, we are running in circles. We can alter a little and make it a spiral outward over time, but I can't emphasize enough the patience that is needed.

I have control over most of the obstacles that psychologically hurt a bettor. I have that because I've identified them and worked on them over time.

I hinted years ago about a new one when I was posting in the CFL thread and even in this thread.

It's how posting at SBR leads you to force a play when there should be patience. I am good about sticking to edges, but when it comes to reading the market, there is a pull to force plays at SBR.

That needs to be squashed and has been as I've tried to restrict posting to Funds.

By the way, I have a third NFL play with Atlanta -5.5....lol.

Patience is what is key. It is daunting to track the whole market and will get worse with winter coming.

Winter is coming.

Patience is key and it is why we are running in circles.

[turtledoves]

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF UPSET basket has picked up the following moneylines...

113 UMASS +165 over FL INT

131 RUTGERS +140 over KANSAS

145 BOISE ST +135 over OK ST

I am looking at Duke over Baylor but can't find a moneyline I like and am also looking at E Mich over Buffalo but market forces may keep us off of that play.

The NCAAF UPSET Basket is currently up 3.44 units. When it takes a downturn, I will move it into the Total Return Fund. I should have put it in there from the beginning...

I have added to the NCAAF Upset Basket...

169 HOUSTON +110 over TEXAS TECH

179 OREGON ST +155 over NEVADA

201 USC +145 over TEXAS

207 FRESNO ST -102 over UCLA

E MICH continues to elude us as a play in this basket.

The NCAAF UPSET Basket adds...

139 OHIO +135 OVER VIRGINIA

Grinding.

[KVB]

BTP X2 Play...

Boston College vs Wake Forest Under 53.5 (-110)NCAAF [General]
09/13/18 05:30 PM ET

[turtledoves]

The problem is, with that factor, you will never find any value scraping anything from the net...

[turtledoves]

[KVB]

I should restate, you may be able to scrape useful info, but you won't be able to relive that day's market.

That becomes a much more difficult task to back test.

[turtledoves]

      

[KVB]

can definitely relive the market to a certain degree

have some tricks up my sleeve, so secret i can't even post here

I agree, we can relive that market to a degree, but we are adding more information daily. Also, I need to explain what to relive and it needs to be discussed, thought out and built into a line.

Or maybe just make a "system" out of it, after all, you can do that with things that do not change from year to year. But man it takes patience.

I was supposed to email you, I passed out late this afternoon with ipad in my face...lol, was tired. Will send you info.

Fukkin neck knocking me around a little. Time for radio frequency burns.

[KVB]

Really thinking about starting an NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund. This shit is all about tracking. I am really getting focused here. The over/under baskets are too much, there are 21 potential plays there already.

The Under basket took a nice drop early here, if it moves lower I will throw it into the Total Return Fund, just in time for shitty winter weather. It might bounce back now. I actually used a loophole to get that BC/WAKE UNDER into the Return Fund, making it a market read.

I think these Funds give a positive field to pick from, it's not arrogance, but the long haul is long and the margin is there. I feel like the road dog fund will do well and when it does move into the Return Fund, the tracking can show what is happening.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

KVB getting destroyed in the comments of smokenjokes MLB contest

[Fidel_CashFlow]

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[Fidel_CashFlow]

Freaking Awesome

[Fidel_CashFlow]

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