Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**KVB** · 10-23-16, 11:47 AM

No forecasts in this post, just a Basket O' UNDERS...

					Short Description
					Football - 463 Oakland Raiders/Jacksonville Jaguars under 47½ -108 for Game
					Football - 453 Minnesota Vikings/Philadelphia Eagles under 38½ -105 for Game
					Football - 457 Washington Redskins/Detroit Lions under 50½ -105 for Game
					Football - 465 Indianapolis Colts/Tennessee Titans under 48½ -106 for Game

**KVB** · 10-23-16, 11:48 AM

**KVB** · 10-23-16, 11:58 AM

I also opened another 4 pick parlay...

				To Win	Short Description

					Football - 465 Indianapolis Colts/Tennessee Titans under 48½ -106 for Game
				Open	Football - 455 New Orleans Saints/Kansas City Chiefs over 49 -156 buying 2½ for Game

The UNDER is from the last post.

Why 49, it's not even a significant Total? True, but's the early opening line...and for this call, that matters.

**KVB** · 10-23-16, 12:00 PM

**KVB** · 10-23-16, 12:05 PM

**KVB** · 10-23-16, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...The only UNDER I'm outright avoiding is NO/KC, I put that OVER in BTP...

Minnesota vs Philadelphia Under 38.5 (-110)NFL [General]
10/23/16 01:00 PM ET
New Orleans vs Kansas City Over 51.5 (-112)NFL [General]
10/23/16 01:00 PM ET
Washington vs Detroit Under 50 (-110)NFL [General]
10/23/16 01:00 PM ET

I may have jumped the gun with so many early plays, that doesn't show patience...

Fawk, after 1 quarter KC/NO has 21 points and no scores in the other two.

When you aren't patient, things often look good from the outset, but tend to turn. I always say, I hate to lead early.

Ever notice how undefeated teams tend trail early and then comeback in later stages of the streak. Or teams without a win tend to take a lead, only to lose in the end.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it and patience is a virtue.

**KVB** · 10-23-16, 03:55 PM

Fuk it, final BTP play...

San Diego vs Atlanta Under 53 (-115)NFL [General]
10/23/16 04:05 PM ET

Still trying to crack that top 10.

Also buying the UNDER 55.5 and 56.5 for this game in Atlanta.

Tom Morello on guitar...

**KVB** · 10-23-16, 06:04 PM

I hope some of these hold, couldn't get anymore, the first two already gone...lol

				Short Description
				Golf Futures - 2016 Golf Events - Senior - Senior Italian Open - Odds to win - Seniors Senior Italian Open - Field (Any Other Golfer) +500
				- Game Total: Under 56.5 -122.222 - Sun Oct 23 2016 15:58EST: SD Chargers @ ATL Falcons
				- Game Total: Under 55.5 -117.172 - Sun Oct 23 2016 15:58EST: SD Chargers @ ATL Falcons
				Football - .ATLANTA FALCONS vs SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - Game - Total 58.5 (Including OT) Under 58.5 -106
				- Game Total: Under 68.5 -122.222 - Sun Oct 23 2016 15:58EST: SD Chargers @ ATL Falcons
				- Game Total: Under 67.5 -107.071 - Sun Oct 23 2016 15:58EST: SD Chargers @ ATL Falcons

**KVB** · 10-23-16, 06:05 PM

**KVB** · 10-23-16, 07:18 PM

Not quite the UNDERS I was expecting today...lol.

Trying to upload a pic to show you a graph of the account balance in Hertg. over the last 107 plays, so you can see the slow uptrend in my risky style trading...like a pogo stick going a driveway...lol. I can't upload the pick but the chart looks interesting...Grapes.

Some of my prediction and betting performance charts can be read like stock charts, it can helpful with macro and micro views of the markets.

Anyway, I'm taking Zona -2 in that account. And opening a 4 pick with Zona to win at -128. No forecasts being posted at this time, I have no time and need put more lap dances in this thread anyway...

**PerfectGrape** · 10-23-16, 07:32 PM

az can't score

**KVB** · 10-23-16, 07:42 PM

I thought about the UNDER but wanted to see tonight's total for a possible play tomorrow. I need to shape up and not worry about posting, but getting the markets straight. Being gone yesterday threw me off...I feel used.

Maybe we'll start some open parlay quality only action. Bring the high chance winners.

but that lap dance though

**KVB** · 10-23-16, 10:25 PM

lol at the blatant UNDER tonight.

**KVB** · 10-23-16, 10:33 PM

30-30 OT and 3-3 OT.

Well played.

**KVB** · 10-23-16, 10:39 PM

Anybody remember me mentioning a TOTALS rift? lol.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it. Once you understand the first part, you can appreciate the second part.

**PerfectGrape** · 10-23-16, 11:53 PM

what a hilarious game

**KVB** · 10-24-16, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by PerfectGrape

what a hilarious game

Yeah, if I had been writing more about that rift and what was happening since last week with the Totals and the scoreboard you would probably see a little bit more humor in what we saw. It's just overwhelming to write like the CFL for the NFL.

Missing Saturday threw me off a bit and just couldn't write anything. Like I said, it's best to show by example and this week had a good showing, I just posted with too narrow of focus to show it.

I let a good opportunity pass and all I can do is laugh at the game being shown.

I'm trying to get this thread in a "had to be there" moment, because that's how you can see what's really happening...what's really behind the results. I was close, with all that talk of TOTAL rifts and then that equalizing game of last night. Again, missing Saturday prevented me from getting to it for posting.

The "had to be there" moment is necessary because looking back at final stats means we get a story without the context at which the stats took place. Models can win doing this, but understanding the context of the markets can be very helpful. That CFL thread was more than CFL and a winning forecast, it was about examples playing themselves out on the field.

At this point, some get what I'm saying and some don't. At some point, hopefully everyone will. Here's a valuable tip to make up for my irresponsibility this Sunday...

Despite a limitation to it's value, we still have to go historical at some point but try hard to avoid any bias. Map the NFL out by breaking it into conference and even divisions. Divide the games, spreads and totals this way. Look what happens over any given couple of weeks paying attention to divisions by themselves and also inter-division play.

Look at it with the eye that each game is it's own issue yet also part of a broader market context. Don't forget the give and take nature of the markets.

Better yet, forget the past and look at the league this way going forward.

I'll try to stay on top of live examples, but it's tough, there's a lot of deception in the NFL and this thread may not be the best place to have all that writing. I've already written too much.

I'm a bit disappointed in myself for not following through with the TOTALs story and just posting plays.

**KVB** · 10-24-16, 03:47 PM

**PerfectGrape** · 10-24-16, 06:21 PM

thanks for the tips KVB, will keep it in mind when i start looking at the numbers more. my approach is old school methods, new school stats still

i have a mantra i repeat over and over all day: "what is thinking? change how you think"

is thinking an autonomous process? do you have free will to think what you want or are you likely to repeat the same thinking patterns? thinking is a resource that you can harness and direct towards achieving your goals. it is like a giant hose that is constantly spraying, instead of spraying all over the place, you need to aim it.

**PerfectGrape** · 10-24-16, 06:29 PM

hawks over +107

MNF under too

Landmark Cash ™ | Evolution of the $100 Dollar Bill

https://www.landmarkcash.com/100-dollar-bill.html

Infographic showing the evolution of the $100 bill in the United States. Visually see how the 100 dollar bill has changed over the past 150 years.

**KVB** · 10-24-16, 06:57 PM

Originally posted by PerfectGrape

...do you have free will to think what you want or are you likely to repeat the same thinking patterns?...[/video]

Both. In fact, this at the very essence of the sports markets. The repeating of thinking patterns is one of the reasons sports is said to be so 50-50.

As far as changing the way you think, Grapes, how far are you willing to go? Culture and surroundings contribute so much to how we think that, to break down those root barriers, is impossible to many.

For one small example, you often hear it said that to win at sportsbetting (or even stocks), you can't be a fan. You can't fall in love with a stock or team as you will find yourself holding them when you shouldn't, or not letting go when you should.

Fandom, whether a college or hometown team, is just one of the many barriers that have to be broken down.

Plato's parable of the cave becomes relevant to the discussion at one point.

Liking this screw...smoove...

**KVB** · 10-24-16, 06:59 PM

Originally posted by PerfectGrape

hawks over +107

MNF under too

https://www.landmarkcash.com/100-dollar-bill.html

Yikes, I took UNDER 10.5 (+110) for the Salami, but only for the value, not all that convinced.

Thinking of putting First score Denver or Interception as first turnover in that stupid azz 4 pick open parlay that already has a fuggin push.

A fuggin push.

Sheeesh.

**KVB** · 10-24-16, 07:16 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...Thinking of putting First score Denver or Interception as first turnover in that stupid azz 4 pick open parlay that already has a fuggin push...

They won't let me put it in the parlay.

**PerfectGrape** · 10-24-16, 07:22 PM

Always bump screw/htown, Parlayin got me hooked. I lost the magic of fandom when rose went down in 12. Got it back this weekend at Wrigley. You can still be a fan and crush totals, you can get better reads from all the games you watch. Hawks were still on summer vacation, dont give a F first few games. Everyone watching the cubs, don't have to try. Cubs don't play tonight, they'll amp up the scoring.

nfl total creeping up a little

**KVB** · 10-24-16, 07:32 PM

"You can still be a fan and crush totals."

lol...I stand corrected...you got me there.

I went to a Giants game with a large group from my kids' elementary school. Of course everyone's a Giants fan but I made a bet on the OVER before I left town. I was rooting for any scores and clapped when the other team generated offense...lol.

The Giants won in an OVER so all was well.

**KVB** · 10-24-16, 07:34 PM

lol, no score first period of NHL game. So much for my UNDER on the Salami...lol.

At least there will be room for some Blackhawk goals.

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 10-24-16, 09:54 PM

that Cardinals debacle last night cost me thousands of sbr free points in BTP

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 10-24-16, 09:57 PM

New York Knicks over 40 wins this year (-110)

8 units

**KVB** · 10-24-16, 10:01 PM

That's crazy, earlier todayI thought about posting for you to check in CashFlow, then like an ass I forgot all about it.

That sucks about BTP, I had a nice hit in week 4.

Now I'm gonna smoke all y'allz azzez in the Smoke 'em contest!!!!!!!

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 10-24-16, 10:02 PM

Have to get another jaw surgery tomorrow @ 1pm , please wish the best for your brother Clint
These are trying times with the severe jaw discomfort and nerve damage.
They are hoping the screws and plates they put in were too close to the nerve canal
and this provides some kind of relief in the long term

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 10-24-16, 10:04 PM

Originally posted by KVB

That's crazy, earlier todayI thought about posting for you to check in CashFlow, then like an ass I forgot all about it.

That sucks about BTP, I had a nice hit in week 4.

Now I'm gonna smoke all y'allz azzez in the Smoke 'em contest!!!!!!!

Im learning to live with disappointment it seems.
Hope you do well in the contest.
We are forced to do the surgery with that screw coming out
Although 10 weeks is a bit too early to take out hardware, this is where we are unfortunately

**KVB** · 10-24-16, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

...They are hoping the screws and plates they put in were too close to the nerve canal
and this provides some kind of relief in the long term

Those nerves bounce back and any inflammation makes it hard. They could be right. I hope they are.

Take it easy for recovery.

**KVB** · 10-24-16, 10:22 PM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

Im learning to live with disappointment it seems...

Nonsense, you will bounce back. To this comment I say PoppyCock...

**gauchojake** · 10-25-16, 12:01 AM

Fidel have you tried doing some guided meditation? PM me if you're interested in some of the tools I use. It's helped me a lot.

**KVB** · 10-25-16, 02:11 PM

Here's to a CashFlow recovery...