The SAD Math behind Sportsbetting......why u usually will always lose long term

[PAULYPOKER]

The difference is that the sports wager is not a coin flip.

The odds are set by humans and they are dynamic. What is -110 can be -150 in the next minute. You have to successfully identify odds that are mispriced - you must exploit market inefficiencies, that certainly do exist. It is not impossible, but if you don't see how it's not impossible then it certainly is impossible for you and you should quit.

You must explot

This.

There's plenty of games where a +130 underdog should be -120 or so.
Exploit those games,

U2 care to matriculate a couple examples' for me on that there situation of matriculating?

[Okieirish]

I am ranked #300 out of #1423. I am 50% right now. I am down a fraction of 1 unit. That should tell you something. If it were real money, less than 300 would be winners and about 1100 , losers. That is why they call it "gambling". If not, it would be called "winning".

[TheMetsSuck]

I’ve turned 100 into 20+k more times than I can remember. Can’t bet with scared money. Find your niche

[dlowilly]

A smart progressive betting scheme (not Martingale) puts the odds in your favor.

No combination of -ev bets produces a +ev result

[stevenash]

U2 care to matriculate a couple examples' for me on that there situation of matriculating?

I've been showing examples for a decade now.

[Sanity Check]

No combination of -ev bets produces a +ev result

[winkyyy]

Thanks for all the excellent constructive posts Very Good

Thanks!!!!


I was watching the NFL Brady/Rodgers game....and after Roders scored 2x and led 10-0 I tried to put in a live bet on Rodgers...Luckily the Odds changed and I was unable to get the bet in...which I would have been
crushed on.


My 2 team ML Parlay Tenn and Miami NFL won...at less than even money and Tenn barely made

it to overtime....

How does a 4-0 team lose or almost lose to a team that is 1-4 ???


Last week I had a nice parly and I included KC ML and they LOST ...!!

Today they play Buffalo..-5 ?? any thoughts?

[winkyyy]

themetssuck $100 into 20k? Holy Mackeral...that is incredible....how can this be possible

[dlowilly]

???

[KVB]

Thanks!!!!


I was watching the NFL Brady/Rodgers game....and after Roders scored 2x and led 10-0 I tried to put in a live bet on Rodgers...Luckily the Odds changed and I was unable to get the bet in...which I would have been
crushed on.


My 2 team ML Parlay Tenn and Miami NFL won...at less than even money and Tenn barely made

it to overtime....

How does a 4-0 team lose or almost lose to a team that is 1-4 ???


Last week I had a nice parly and I included KC ML and they LOST ...!!

Today they play Buffalo..-5 ?? any thoughts?

I see your new to the NFL.

You seem surprised at what us bettors know as business as usual.

I suggest you write down your conlusions, and why you made them, and track whether they win or lose without betting money.

If you have to bet money, keep it small until you've watched some more NFL and aren't surprised by some of things you posted above.

After a while, hopefully, you'll recognize when it's time to start betting more.

Good Luck.

[d2bets]

Thanks!!!!


I was watching the NFL Brady/Rodgers game....and after Roders scored 2x and led 10-0 I tried to put in a live bet on Rodgers...Luckily the Odds changed and I was unable to get the bet in...which I would have been
crushed on.


My 2 team ML Parlay Tenn and Miami NFL won...at less than even money and Tenn barely made

it to overtime....

How does a 4-0 team lose or almost lose to a team that is 1-4 ???


Last week I had a nice parly and I included KC ML and they LOST ...!!

Today they play Buffalo..-5 ?? any thoughts?

Whatever you are thinking you want to do....do the opposite. Instant winner.

[KVB]

Whatever you are thinking you want to do....do the opposite. Instant winner.

I've found that your suggestion is valid but my process for him to reach your conclusion is so much better served by being played out.

Some things you just have to learn on your own. So I gave him a roadmap, he just has to stay on the road.

It's good to teleport him to the next stop, but then where does he go from there? You can only opposite yourself so many times before you opposited your opposite.

Then he's back to square one. I think you, d2, understand what I mean there...lol.

It gets confusing quick.

[Sanity Check]

???

Your winnings can earn compounding interest.

While your losses cannot.

It allows a combination of -ev bets to produce +ev results.

[The Kraken]

This guy must be a Ganchrow alt

[mjsuax13]

I see your new to the NFL.

You seem surprised at what us bettors know as business as usual.

I suggest you write down your conlusions, and why you made them, and track whether they win or lose without betting money.

If you have to bet money, keep it small until you've watched some more NFL and aren't surprised by some of things you posted above.

After a while, hopefully, you'll recognize when it's time to start betting more.

Good Luck.

Good advice. The difference between a 4-0 to and a 1-3 team in the NFL is very small.

[slewfan]

I see your new to the NFL.

You seem surprised at what us bettors know as business as usual.

I suggest you write down your conlusions, and why you made them, and track whether they win or lose without betting money.

If you have to bet money, keep it small until you've watched some more NFL and aren't surprised by some of things you posted above.

After a while, hopefully, you'll recognize when it's time to start betting more.

Good Luck.

Excellent advice.