-
Comment -
so you won't answer my question as expected... now please, just stfu with this nonsense.Comment -
After the first quarter, the selections were 7-2-1.
After the second quarter, at mid season, the total record was 26-14-1.
Here’s a link to the first quarter review of plays…
Here is a detailed review through week 10, similar to the above review.
Like last time, I have broken this down into the all bold plays I’ve listed as well as just the first buy point for each game. On the left is my record per game. If you just entered the market once, on my first play posted, then that would be an issue.
You can see the results per $100 bet for each bold play and each issue.
There is also a crude review of the closing line and whether it was beat.
There is also a column where you can see whether I, or the models being worked with, predicted the line movement.
Like the first quarter, I didn’t always get the best line, but there were no unpredictable movements on these plays.
Issue $100 Bet Closing Beat the Predict Record Play Result Per Bold Per Issue Price Closer? Movement? 0-1 30-Jul BC -200 L -100 -100 -140 - Y 0-2 BC -4.5 (-110) L -100 -100 -2.5 - Y BC -2.5 (-110) L -100 BC -4.5 (+107) L -100 BC -155 L -100 BC -2.5 (-105) L -100 BC -3 (+107) L -100 BC -135 L -100 BC -127 L -100 1-2 31-Jul SSK/Edm UNDER 48 (-108) W 92.59 92.59 47.5 + Y 2-2 Edm -10 (+100) W 100 100 -9.5 - Y Edm -9.5 (-105) W 95.24 Edm -10 (+105) W 105 Edm -10 (+107) W 107 Edm -9 (-108) W 92.59 3-2 Edm 2nd -3.5 (-106) W 94.34 94.34 = 4-2 1-Aug Cal -200 W 50 50 -220 + Y 4-3 Mon/Cal OVER 47.5 (-105) L -100 -100 48 + Y 5-3 Cal 2nd -210 W 47.62 47.62 -210 = Y 6-3 3-Aug Ham -3.5 (-106) W 94.34 94.34 -3.5 = Y 6-4 Tor/Ham OVER 53.5 L -100 -100 53.5 = Y 7-4 6-Aug Edm/BC OVER 47 (-106) W 94.34 94.34 46.5 - Y 8-4 7-Aug Mon/Ott OVER 46.5 (-106) W 94.34 94.34 46 - Y Mon/Ott OVER 46.5 (-102) W 98.04 Mon/Ott OVER 46.5 (-103) W 97.09 Mon/Ott OVER 46.5 (-110) W 90.91 Mon/Ott OVER 46.5 (+100) W 100 Mon/Ott OVER 46.5 (-101) W 99.01 Mon/Ott OVER 46.5 (-105) W 95.24 Mon/Ott OVER 46 (-105) W 95.24 = Y 8-5 9-Aug Win/Ham OVER 52.5 (-105) L -100 -100 52 - Y 9-5 13-Aug Edm +2 (-107) W 93.46 93.46 1.5 + Y 10-5 Edm +115 W 115 115 105 + Y 11-5 Edm LIVE +9.5 (-110) W 90.91 90.91 11-6 15-Aug Ham -7.5 (-145)/Ott +8.5 (-110) L -100 -100 =/- Y 12-6 BC/Ham Over 50 (-105) W 95.24 95.24 50 = Y 12-7 20-Aug BC -135 L -100 -100 -135 = Y 12-8 BC -3 (+108) L -100 -100 -2.5 = Y 12-9 BC 2nd -3 (+116) L -100 -100 -3 = 13-9 21-Aug Ham -2 (-110) W 90.91 90.91 -2 = Y 14-9 Ham -130 W 76.92 76.92 -130 = Y Ham -125 W 80 -130 + Y 15-9 Ham/Edm OVER 49 (+109) W 109 109 48 - Y Ham/Edm OVER 48.5 (+103) W 103 48 - Y 15-10 22-Aug SSK +240 L -100 -100 +195 + Y 15-11 23-Aug OTT +380 L -100 -100 +340 + Y 16-11 OTT 2nd +3.5 (-110) W 90.91 90.91 3.5 = 17-11 27-Aug Mon +450 W 450 450 +450 = 18-11 Mon +9.5 (-103) W 97.09 97.09 11 - Y 19-11 28-Aug Tor/Edm OVER 48.5 (-105) W 95.24 95.24 49.5 + Y Tor/Edm OVER 49 (-103) W 97.09 + 19-12 30-Aug SSK/Ott OVER 50.5 (-105) L -100 -100 51 + Y 19-12 1527.7 872.25 7-2-1 1st Quarter Results 424.05 437.52 26-14-1 Total 1951.75 1309.77
For the second quarter I was 19-12 on individual issues and overall I am 26-14-1. Of those 26 wins and 14 losses, 9 wins and 5 losses are Totals.
Also, of that 26-14 record, 6 wins and 4 losses were from moneyline bets.
That leaves an 11-5 overall record against the sides.
If you bet the just the first buy point listed in bold for each game you would be positive 8.72 units weeks 6-10 and positive over 13.09 units overall. The 6-4 moneyline record shows profit and accounts for about 4.09 of those 13.09 units.
A bettor betting each bold play posted would be up 15.28 units this quarter and 19.51 units overall.
We were at 20 Units on the trading side until the last Total, a loss.
Comment -
still can't answer my simple question...
i've never encountered a tout with a losing record. but never met their clients claiming they got rich from the picks.
you're in the same category.Comment -
The CFL thread was never, at any point, behind.
I don't bump my winners, I have bumped many losers for teaching points or to slam the emoticon against the brick wall.
I am not at all pleased that Kahn has forced me to bump this winning record. I simply don't post like that.
I suppose I was forced.Comment -
like i said, when posters that follow your analysis lose their ass while you claim the thread is a winning thread. something doesn't add up.Comment -
After the first quarter, the selections were 7-2-1.
After the second quarter, at mid season, the total record was 26-14-1.
After the third quarter, the total record was 44-25-2.
I mentioned we would try to beat the CFL one quarter of a season at a time and here is a basic review of the betting during the third quarter of this season.
Here is a link to the detailed record of the 2nd quarter wherein there is a link to the details of the first part of the season:
Again, the review is like last time. It is broken down into all the bold plays I’ve listed as well as just the first buy point for each game, which wasn’t always the best line or price. On the left is my record per game. If you just entered the market once, on my first play posted, then that would be an issue.
Like always, you can see the results per $100 bet for each bold play and each issue as well as the crude review of the closing line and whether it was beat.
There is also a column where you can see whether I, or the models being worked with, predicted the line movement.
There were no unpredictable movements on these plays but there is an improvement over the first half of the season as far as getting the best line, or better than the closing line.
$100 Bet Closing Beat the Predict Play Result Per Bold Per Issue Price Closer? Movement? 1-0 3-Sep BC +5 (-107) W 93.46 93.46 5 = Y 2-0 6-Sep SSK/Win OVER 50.5 (-102) W 98.04 98.04 50.5 = Y 3-0 SSK/Win 2nd OVER24.5 (-106) W 94.34 94.34 24.5 = 3-1 7-Sep Edm 1st +2.5 (-110) L -100 -100 2.5 = 3-2 Edm +5 (-106) L -100 -100 +4 + Y 3-3 Edm +180 L -100 -100 +160 + Y 4-3 Edm 2nd pk (+107) W 107 107 pk = 4-4 12-Sep SSK -1 (-105) L -100 -100 -1 = Y 5-4 SSK/Win UNDER 50.5 (-106) W 94.34 94.34 50.5 = Y 6-4 Edm -106 W 94.34 94.34 -115 + Y 7-4 Edm -1 (+102) W 102 102 -1 + Y 8-4 13-Sep Ott/BC UNDER 50.5 (-106) W 94.34 94.34 49.5 + Y 8-5 18-Sep BC/Cal UNDER 47 (-105) L -100 -100 46.5 + Y 9-5 Cal -11.5 (-115) W 86.96 86.96 -11.5 = Y Cal -11 (-105) W 95.24 10-5 19-Sep Edm +6 (-112) W 89.29 89.29 +6 = Y Edm +5.5 (-101) W 99.01 11-5 Edm +230 W 230 230 +210 + Y 12-5 Ott/Ssk OVER 50.5 (-108) W 92.59 92.59 52 + 12-5-1 25-Sep Cal/Win OVER 48 (-105) P 0 0 47.5 + Y 12-6-1 26-Sep BC/Edm UNDER 46 (-103) L -100 -100 46.5 - Y BC/Edm UNDER 46.5 (-107) L -100 12-7-1 Ott -2.5 (-106) L -100 -100 -2.5 = Y Ott -2 (-105) L -100 12-8-1 Ott -120 L -100 -100 -140 + Y 13-8-1 Ott 2nd -4 (-120) W 83.33 83.33 -5 = 13-9-1 27-Sep Mon -120 L -100 -100 -130 + Y 14-9-1 Mon/Ssk OVER 49 (-104) W 96.15 96.15 49 = Y 15-9-1 1-Oct Ott -130 W 76.92 76.92 -130 = Y 16-9-1 2-Oct Cal/Ham UNDER 49.5 (-107) W 93.46 93.46 48 + Y 17-9-1 3-Oct Win +6 (-102) W 98.04 98.04 6 = Y 18-9-1 Win 2nd +2.5 (+105) W 105 105 2.5 = 18-10-1 Ssk/BC UNDER 51 (-105) L -100 -100 51 = Y 18-11-1 Ssk/BC 2nd UNDER 26 (-110) L -100 -100 26 = 18-11-1 723.85 729.6 7-2-1 1st Quarter Results 424.05 437.52 19-12 2nd Quarter Results 1527.7 872.25 44-25-2 Total 2675.6 2039.37
For the third quarter, weeks 6 through 10, I was 18-11-1 on individual issues and, including the 1st and 2nd quarters, am 44-25 overall. Of those 44 wins and 25 losses, 16 wins and 9 losses are Total bets.
Also, of that 44-25 record, 9 wins and 7 losses were from moneyline bets.
That leaves a record against the sides of 19 wins and 9 losses.
If you had just bet the first buy point listed in bold for each game you would be positive nearly 7.3 units this quarter and 20.39 units overall. The 9-7 moneyline record shows profit and represents about 5.10 of those 20.39 units.
A bettor betting each bold play posted would be positive 7.24 units this quarter and 26.76 units overall.
A bettor betting 2% of starting bankroll, not adjusting the bet size, would be up over 40% or over 53% of that bankroll since July 9th, depending on the strategy employed...
Comment -
still can't answer my simple question...
there's a good reason why you make your analysis ambiguous, now i know.
now i also know why you went crazy on me. it all makes sense.
i know the truth...Comment -
I have no idea why my name is involved so much with this. For the record I did not follow every play or lose my ass. The casino does that easily enough without the occasional loss I incur from tailing a poster on here. Honestly I don't think I would feel right literally betting every play someone posted on here like a robot even if it were for my benefit.
LT was profitable last year and is doing well this year but if I had followed along the entire way I would've felt like I owed the guy and without the ability to thank him I don't think that would sit well with me personally..like at least would want to buy him a beer.
Same with KVB but it was more critical thinking and looking at a football market I'd never looked at before. I felt like I could keep up with his analysis but frankly I wasn't able too. His record is also largely irrelevant to me because I would enjoy reading some more like that this year but that does not mean I would necessarily wager on every analysis.
So sometimes I randomly tail and other times I make my own plays but the amount I've lost is largely irrelevant because I lose way more to 21 and the like and also I prefer to have many different types of analysis available rather than just hold everyone to a standard "play NYK's +7". Some enjoy that style and it certainly is easy to fade or follow but Nash, KVB, some subforum add a little something that is good.Comment -
I think KVB got a little over zealous in this pursuit and I certainly have no ill will towards Kahner other than he likes UCLA (39 made me do it). You are both cali dudes right...just end this thing already.Comment -
2 things
1. Im rolling up a blunt with a very fine blend of Sensi Star X Sour Diesel
2. This place needs more guys like Ra77er
Comment -
Glad I went to UCSB
Comment -
Ah, fond memories of Cali myself.... the two years I spent in Newport Beach in the early 90's were some of the best times in my life....
Hated to leave to come back to Texas.....
Particularly when I ran into this totally decked out babe at the bar where we were having drink as part of my going away party, and she comes up to me and says "I know you.... you're _____." I didn't recognize her at all, so I say "how?" She says I work at your firm (bigger cali firm with offices in La, SF, SD, and Costa Mesa (right next to the performing arts center)), and that she's the f'n mail girl....
Sure, I'd seen her around the office, dressed down, looking rather unnoticable, plus, I was married... This night she's in a tiny miniskirt, awesome c cups on display, and looked like a f'n supermodel..... the regret comes in here: after we talk for a while, and she's clearly buzzed, she lays this shit down on me: tells me that she has to be at work each day at 6:00 am. to deliver all the shit to our offices before we get in..... she says, "you wanna know I secret?" I say sure, she says "I've sat in your chair and masturbated lookin' at you in the photo of you and your wife, you're so f'n hot I don't know why you married her".... she says a bunch of other very laudatory things, tells me how wet her pussy is just talkin' to me, is ready to f'k my brains out, etc.....
I didn't break my marital vows that night despite her beggin' to go back to my office (now emptied of my shit on its way to Austin) to close the deal.... If I'd known how things were gonna go in that f'n marriage, I'd probably still be practicing law in Cali and married to that babe!!!!!Last edited by Auto Donk; 05-27-16, 09:43 AM.Comment -
i bring up your name because i thought you were tailing him. can you at least admit that when i was participating in that thread i was winning and his analysis was losing?
he can't seem to understand why i called that thread a losing thread. every time he made an analysis and i faded his analysis, i won my wager and he lost. now he's saying his record was 7-2. that's impossible. that means i only won 2 bets.
trust me this isn't a big deal to me. i've said it many times. i said he needed to move on, no one cares but him. even now this isn't a big deal, it's just that when a grown ass man is trolling and stalking you for a month even when being ignored, it gets annoying.
i really think he went crazy on me since i foiled his plans of becoming a cfl tout this year. that's the only logical explanation on why he would make such a big deal on my nonchalant statement about his cfl thread being a loser.
honestly, the difference between lt's baseball thread and the cfl thread is lt clearly states his plays and w-l record. kvb is ambiguous about what he bets and at the end he cherry picked his record. there's no way he went 7-2 when i was involved.
jury isn't still out, i know i wasn't making up shit. he really needs to stop telling me to come clean. i know what i know. i rest my case. i'll repeat this isn't a big deal. kvb is just blowing this up for no fukking reason.
the end...Comment -
-
And this is what's wrong with you. Still defiant, even after Ra77er himself and the most detailed record keeping of any kind at SBR contradicts what you say.
Once you have your shit pushed in so far you can taste it, you like to claim it's no big deal.
Still calling me a tout and names I see, with no base whatsoever.
Kahn you have been obsessed with KVB for a while now, obsess all you want but quit making an alternative reality.
I wasn't going to post again, but your defiance is ridiculous.
This burial is so one sided that it reminds of that guy who complained about gay ads on SBR when the mods explained that those ads were based on that posters internet history.
Kahn, you don't "know what you know" the results have been the same, very clear and concise for nearly a year.
It's all there, for everyone to see.
Kahn, I felt bad for you with this last night, but you just keep digging yourself a deeper hole, you keeping thinking you have some legitimate reason to attack me.
You have an agenda Kahn, or you would have stopped lying and attacking some time ago.
This is getting pathetic as you are flying in the face of facts posted here.
Stop lying Kahn, it's unreal how far you've gone.
Your post has been reported.
Comment -
I suppose I could let any number of Forum members call this as bullshit.
To say this above is ludicrous. Every play was made in bold for that very reason and every play posted is listed in order, for anyone to verify.
To say what you say, Kahn, implies you have a dirty agenda.
What other reason could you have for such blatant misrepresentations of posters, posts, threads, and results? And to do it over and over again.
Something isn't right with you Ghenghis Kahn.Comment -
i foiled your plans of going tout. this is what it's all about...Comment -
I could fill this page with quotes from Kahn trying to discredit me, spread over several threads and several days.
Not one of those quotes will be true or based in fact. These have been re quoted already in other threads.
It's a false smear campaign with full intent to discredit me.
Despite all truth end evidence laid out, he's still doing it in this thread; just read his posts.
Calling my posts bullshit, for whatever reason, is fine but to lie about my results to support that assertion will not be tolerated.
The results speak for themselves.
I would think Kahn would get tired of tasting his own shit, but he just keeps going.
The desperation in this thread becomes very obvious.
Do the right thing Kahn, we're all watching.
Comment -
This post has been reported.
Here is the text:
I'm only reporting this because of the use of the word tout.
At SBR this carries a strong connotation and in this case is clearly used to once again falsely discredit KVB.
It is this deliberated campaign of what amounts to libel, outright defamation, that I am protesting.
Whatever his motive, it is nonetheless harmful to the SBR Forum as a whole, in my opinion.
Comment -
Id still like to see some sort of hadicapoing contest, whether one of you leaves or not, it would be fun.Comment -
another note, how can anyone take this guy seriously? c'mon people, wake the fukk up.
it's actually getting comical.Comment -
How about 1000 betpoints.
No one leaves.
MLB only.
Ill hold the points!!!!
Comment -
jay, you're missing the whole point of my challenge.
kvb is accusing me of lying. he's been trolling and stalking me for a month. i've been ignoring him for a month.
i was nice enough to post plays in the afl thread. it went 4-0.
then he makes accusations of my picks originating from a tout.
he says he knows the afl market very well. hence, i challenged him.
i'm not the one that's making up shit and lying. the one you look up to is the liar.
he won't accept my challenge because he knows he'll get his ass kicked and doesn't want to leave sbr and lose $1000.
you know for a fact that i was kicking ass in cfl and while i was there he was losing. there's no way when i was fading his picks, the guy could have gone 7-2.
now tell me who's the liar?Comment -
I agree with his posted record.
I also agree that someone could potentiallt tail him and lose at the rate you claim to have lost at.Comment -
so tell me jay, am i lying? am i making shit up?
do you finally understand what's going on?Comment -
Too much to read, start a new thread so I can follow alongComment -
Yap Yap Yap
Comment
