Puking
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Who's everyone got in the masters?Comment -
Did I get censored by SBR?Comment -
Dude, I made like 100 posts last night.
Was crushing!
Is SBR turning into CNN?Comment -
Fidel's?Comment -
damn SBR and their editing format!...
...back to the drawing board!...
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Hate it when that happens!...
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I wonder what they see?...
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Sorry KVB but I'm scratching Vandy...truth be told, they are dog shit and I simply don't trust them...alright KVB...I'm kind of rolling with this in addition to the wagers that I've already placed...Heritage gives you damn good odds and payouts on college teasers...so far I've got a 4TM 9PT teaser that pays (+225) or something close to that...
...for some reason I'm loving Arkansas, Wake, and BC...How do you feel about those teams with the generous points?...should I add another?...I was thinking about Colorado (+16.5) and Army (+14.5) in addition to these:
Arkansas(+26.5)
BC (+22.5)
Wake (+22.5)
Vandy (+26.5)
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Don't keep your feet on the dashboard
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The KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund has picked up...
143 14-Nov FLORIDA ST +10 (-105) 167 ILLINOIS +7 (-105) 173 CAL +3.5 (-102) 213 SC +11 (-103) 215 S ALABAMA +15.5 (-103) 
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The KVB NCAAF Totals Fund has added up...
162 14-Nov WISC/MICH UNDER 54 (-107) 198 BAYLOR/TTECH 57.5 (-105) 206 PENN/NEBRASKA UNDER 56.5 (-104)
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The KVB NFL ATS/ML Fund has picked up...
I've chosen not to take the -1 (-122) line and went for the -2 instead.122 12-Nov TENN +1 (-104) 268 15-Nov ARI -2 (-105)
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The KVB NFL Totals Fund has picked up...
Like the almost even money here.268 15-Nov BUF/ARI UNDER 56 (-101)
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I've had Vandy in the Visiting Dog Fund two other times this year, at +30.5 on Sep 26th and +18.5 last week. Both won.
Going 7-1 last week and hitting Vandy twice already this year there I can see hesitation, but for these spread plays I do not consider passing, a trigger is a trigger, even if I think it's due to lose, or even if I think the whole Fund is due to lose in a given week.
Visiting Dog Fund pending (21-13-1 ATS this year, 22-6-7, +121 vs the close)...
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Ok ok I see herComment -
LMAO that cheerleader really shat her pants mid air.
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There are a lot of positions that I take each week but the more cyclical Funds I do rotate more into at times. I divide the bankroll because there really are different strategies used.
Be careful here, don't just tail everything, expecially the that haymaker Fund, as it pays big odds and can survive a much smaller win percentage.
But be careful in general. The sharpest Fund, The Visiting Dog Fund has some red flags, like going 7-1 last week. It's a game of give and take.
The buys at the open and through the week, and also new buys if the market calls for it, are the Visiting Dog Fund, UPSET Basket, and haymaker.
The ATS/ML and Totals Fund are bought as the market matures. Sometimes the ATS fund crosses the Visiting Dog Fund, we like those plays. Sometimes it's a whole new set of plays and know this, sometimes it contradicts plays.
These two later Funds are riskier, they can have less predictability as they are not cyclical and they are not as sharp as the opening sharp spread fund as the target circle here is not only wider, but there are also different strategies involved, different criteria are used.
The there's the Contrarian Fund, almost always gameday and it tracks our contrarian market at a specific level.
All Funds use my stacking percentages forecast but how they develop and the adjustments that get made differ from there.
Don't try to tail everything, especially this week. Protect your roll, we never know when a storm comes.
I like that UPSET Basket this week and TCU and Cal are strong plays.
Manster doing a good job of forcing me to root out some kind of favorite out of some batches...lol.
I hope that clears some of it up for you, it's all about narrowing down to that psotive universe of plays then maybe choosing from there. If you notice, there is a definite emphasis on road dogs, taking out half of the entire universe to begin with, then we go from there.
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Army +167 at BAS, probably should have just posted that since I was amost an hour late to post. It's possible there is manipulation here in the market trying to bait soem groups. It happens and in fact happens a lot. If we break the UPSET Basket into the openers, lines only at the close, and those that "float" in, out, or in and out, we can see how this affects the real time, real life feasable examples I'm giving.
We'll see what happens.
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Kvb I'm going to give you my liens for tonight as long as you promise you won't sell them!Comment -
Colts -1
O48.5Comment -
Some of best cappers stack percentages. They find edge after edge in micro areas and then stack them together to fight a profile that we then compare to the market to seek value. It works, but it can be fooled as well.
I make many forecasts, and they are all made independant and without knowledge of the line being offered. For Baylor, my stacking percentages forecast shows Baylor winning the game outright with 31 or 30 points to Texas Tech's 21 or 23 points. That's a 7, 8, 9, or 10 point game forecasted, with a 7 or 10 point marging being a bit more likely than the others. It also shows a 51, 52, 53 or 54 point game with 51 and 52 beign far more likely. Not to mention, with 55 being literally the most common NCAAF Total in the last 15 years and being captured in my Forecast, you can see the initial market lean on the UNDER 57.5 here.
Those numbers are a bit away from the market and for some perspective, know that the stacking forecast, over the last 100 plays, is 55-43-2 against the open and 50-46-4 against the close ATS, and 54-45-1 vs open and 50-46-4 vs. the close with Totals.
I also make a non predictive public gauge that is an assessment of the public's assessment of the game. That has Baylor winning 31-27.
I see Baylor's team Total at 28.5.
That's important as 28 is one of the top Team scores by frequency in NCAAF over the last more than 11,000 games and 15 years. 30 is notable but the next stop real stop is at 31 and is even more frequent than 28.
Notice the Forecasts both seeing Baylor at 31 points, and then note the line of 28.5. The books know what's going on here with the team Total, added the hook, and have a pretty sharp line here. While they show a pick spread, most think T Tech gives up one score and Baylor picks it during the game.
I'm not going to lie, and this something I've written about in the past, when the forecasts line up like this, they can be wrong. I think the Team Total is a pretty sharp line, forcing bettors to gamble but I also think it's set at 28.5 to bait the public on the team and perhaps give the bettors (the sharper market watchers, even by simply understanding key numbers) a shot here.
I'm always looking over my shoulder and gun to my head I'd take the UNDER 28.5 down to 28 because of the spot, not only with my under expectation for the whole game, which differs from the public, but I think the team Total spot I just described would call for it.
I hope that makes some sense.
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Yeah I used talk to text so a lot of shit gets misspelled, like the difference between leans lines and doing blow of all kindsComment -
I'm fading that line move tonight, bettors who have gone with that move so far this season have done very well and I expect a sharp, short term, turn there.
Now it's a Thursday night with a move crossing zero, I don't buy it, it's Tennessee.
It's a perfect time for that give and take market to take a little back as it has been very generous to the those guys chasing that movement, especially the underdog bettors.
Welcome to the second half of the season mutherfukkers...lol.
That's part of my spot analysis for tonight's game.
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