-
Comment -
my favorite ending in cinematic horror history!..
...best horror movie of all-time "Phantasm" 1979...BOY!!!!
Comment -
I have 9 ATS/ML Fund plus and 15 Totals Fund plays today. I’m a scorer at the regional science bowl today, going to be a long day. My betting volume us been very high these last two weeks. Good Luck if you’re betting today.Comment -
“My eyes are up here.”
Comment -
I would love to go a couple of rounds with her.
Or just put it in her butt.Comment -
Comment -
need a good laugh, fellas?...read this from the archives!...
Why Athletes Can't Have Regular Jobs…
1. Chicago Cubs outfielder Andre Dawson on being a role model:
“I want all dem kids to do what I do, to look up to me. I want all the kids to copulate me."
2. New Orleans Saint RB George Rogers when asked about the upcoming season:
“I want to rush for 1,000 or 1,500 yards, whichever comes first.”
3. And, upon hearing Joe Jacoby of the Skins say:
“I'd run over my own mother to win the Super Bowl,”;
Matt Millen of the Raiders said: “To win, I'd run over Joe’s Mom, too.”
4. Torrin Polk, University of Houston receiver, on his coach, John Jenkins:
“He treats us like men. He lets us wear earrings…”
5. Football commentator and former player Joe Theismann:
“Nobody in football should be called a genius. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein.”
6. Senior basketball player at the University of Pittsburgh :
“I'm going to graduate on time, no matter how long it takes.”
(Now, that is beautiful!)
7. Bill Peterson, a Florida State football coach:
“You guys line up alphabetically by height…” And, “You guys pair up in groups of three, and then line up in a circle.”
8. Boxing promoter Dan Duva on Mike Tyson going to prison:
“Why would anyone expect him to come out smarter? He went to prison for three years, not Princeton .”
9. Stu Grimson, Chicago Blackhawks left wing, explaining why he keeps a color photo of himself above his locker:
“That's so when I forget how to spell my name, I can still find my clothes.”
10. Lou Duva, veteran boxing trainer, on the Spartan training regimen of heavyweight Andrew Golota:
“He's a guy who gets up at six o'clock in the morning, regardless of what time it is.”
11. Chuck Nevitt , North Carolina State basketball player, explaining to Coach Jim Valvano why he appeared nervous at practice:
“My sister's expecting a baby, and I don't know if I'm going to be an uncle or an aunt.”
(I wonder if his IQ ever hit room temperature in January)
12. Frank Layden , Utah Jazz president, on a former player:
“I asked him, ‘Son, what is it with you? Is it ignorance or apathy?’;
He said, ‘Coach, I don't know and I don't care’”
13. Shelby Metcalf, basketball coach at Texas A&M, recounting what he told a player who received four F’s and one D:
“Son, looks to me like you're spending too much time on one subject.”
14. In the words of NC State great Charles Shackelford:
“I can go to my left or right… I am amphibious.”
15. Amarillo High School and Oiler coach Bum Phillips when asked by Bob Costas why he takes his wife on all the road trips.
Phillips responded: “Because she is too damn ugly to kiss goodbye.Comment -
CHICKEN BOB
Bob came home drunk one night, slid into bed beside his sleeping wife, and fell into a deep slumber. He awoke before the Pearly Gates, where St. Peter said, "You died in your sleep, Bob." Bob was stunned. "I'm dead? No, I can't be! I've got too much to live for. Send me back!" St. Peter said, "I'm sorry, but there's only one way you can go back, and that is as a chicken." Bob was devastated, but begged St. Peter to send him to a farm near his home...The next thing he knew, he was covered with feathers, clucking and pecking the ground. A rooster strolled past. "So, you're the new hen, huh? How's your first day here?" "Not bad," replied Bob the hen, "but I have this strange feeling inside. Like I'm gonna explode!" "You're ovulating," explained the rooster. "Don't tell me you've never laid an egg before?" "Never," said Bob. "Well, just relax and let it happen," says the rooster. "It's no big deal." He did, and a few uncomfortable seconds later, out popped an egg! He was overcome with emotion as he experienced motherhood. He soon laid another egg -- his joy was overwhelming. As he was about to lay his third egg, he felt a couple of hard smacks on the back of his head, opened his eyes and heard..."BOB, wake up! You shit the bed!"Comment -
Comment -
Comment -
Comment -
Comment -
Up over 30 units in NBA and Hoops over the last couple of weeks, none of it posted.
I apologize.Comment -
Comment -
I love donuts.Comment -
NBA overs are a tough cookieComment -
The ATS/ML Fund that was up when I posted early season, then pulled back earlier this year, is the Fund that shot up the last couple of weeks on high volume.
The Technical Value Fund had far less plays and isn't off much unit wise from the tracking here. Going to at least get these out each day...
The KVB NCAAB Technical Value Fund has picked up...
I do have 4 here but 3.5 is everywhere now.865 25-Feb KANSAS ST +3.5 (-105)
Let Jerry "sing you 100 versus in ragtime..."
Comment -
I was bitching before about those NBA UNDER failing over and over again.
We could be seeing a shift in those give and take markets. The efficient guys will tell you the line is catching up from the rule change, and it is.
But there is also a forced give and take. Might generate some evidence to show here in a couple of minutes.
Comment -
It's true. It's been a volatile season. I now wish I had been able to post it all.
NBA Contrarian Fund, which has ATS/ML and Totals, here's the Total Units at the extremes:
Jan 8th: +9.2 units, Feb 5th: -5.1 units, Now +9.3 units.
NCAAB ATS/ML:
Nov 27th: +10.8 units, Feb 8th -26.7 units, Now -12.8 units
NCAAB Totals Fund which had very few early season plays so this is the real travesty:
Feb 8: +.5 units, Now: +12.8 units.
Oh well, don't need the credibility like Cash said, and probably wouldn't have had any time to make examples so it would have felt like mindless posting.
It is what it is. I'll get back into gear soon.
Jerry is like 48 here, looks much older.
Comment -
By the way, the Visiting Value Fund is currently -19.3 units, with the early bet strategy -7.5 units and the bets that wait for more info are -11.8 units.
The Technical Value Fund is currently +11.1 units.
So it's not like everyone's winning here, but the Tech Fund has been consistent and not volatile.
Current "market metrics"...lol...indicate that the visiting value fund that can be made at market open should do well the rest of this season ( I expect it to go positive) and I will try to post those too.
Remember the Weekday Under Basket? I stopped betting that when it was down about 12 units. It's still down 9.8 units this year.
Comment -
CashFlow, it's time we talk at length and I might be needing a file from you.
There may be a setback with the space, may be. Fuk if there is.
Comment -
-
So let's talk NBA OVERS.
Yeah, today Feb 24th, OVERS were 1-2 but over Feb 22nd and 23rd, betting the OVER gave you a 16-5 record.
The great run couldn't last forever. But that's very short term. Let's play snapshot again.
If you bet the Closing Over your Total Units at the extremes have been (I am estimating because my data is vig specific)...
Nov 1st: +19.5 units but by Nov 7th: -1 unit, Nov 14th: -4 units, Nov 27th: +13.5 units.
By Dec 8th it's -1 unit, Dec 21st -16 units.
By January 5th we're looking at back to even and at Feb 3rd: -25 Units. After that last little run...Feb 23rd: -8.5 units.
Then there was today.
So, from +20 units to -25 units through Nov, Dec, and Jan. with two stretches of +9.5 and +15 units.
Right before the Break, the market did it again...Feb 12th: -23 units, Feb 13th: -15.5 units, Feb 14: -14.5 units
Season to date I have OVERS at 446-432-15, not counting tonight. Not enough to overcome the vig.
The Overs took the market by surprise early. There was an adjustments and it was drastic. Then we settled into "normalcy."
But this is every game. What about data with betting patterns through that time. What about where the money was on those overs. What about whether the money placed was respected? Line movement, reverse line movement? If the market had to move on sharper action, maybe that action was ahead of the market.
In the end it seems like a lot of noise, but don't be afraid to break it down into a couple of weeks at a time. Seems like 2 weeks was natural in the dates I posted above.
I haven't really said much and it's taken forever here. Graph it, not just in rotation order, but by daily results. Watch how each trading day plays out and look at peaks, higher highs and higher lows, etc. When combined with known efficient capping, this a dangerous tool. The more specific you graph, like down to conference division and team performance, the more enhanced the capping will be. Obviously, narrowing down to the team level is important.
Speaking of a couple weeks. Remember Nov 1st to the 7th, to the 14th above? The drastic drop to even took only 1 week.
Two weeks later, Nov 19, 20, and 21, saw a 10 unit rise in 3 days. We saw a 10 unit rise Feb 22nd and 23rd as well.
I think I'll run some reports here and add some of that other info to see if including the line movement as layers over these numbers and see if there are any extremes.
Clearly the general OVER advantage came and went quick and there was a drawn out draw down during the month of January. That week (or almost 2 weeks) during the New Year got the public interest renewed, and all those late to the party trying to make an easy buck with OVERS paid a dear price over the next month. No matter what daily spurt they got, their bankroll headed lower.
Since I haven't said much, let me give you this...
The units were at a season low about two weeks before the All Star Break and it would be more telling if it were actually at the All Star Break. If so, I would have predicted OVERS to be profitable even if you bet every game from here on out. The problem, is that right before the break, there was a near 10 unit surge for the OVERS. Then, after the 4 unit loss on the 21st, another 10 unit surge.
That could be the highest we'll see it for the rest of the year and tonight's games may be no surprise. Should OVERS gain 8 more units on this little upward trend, then that's it, it will fall from there. Personally, I think it fall again from here.
This may end up an UNDER heavy year after all.
Now, if the market had not seen the sharp rise before the break, but was at that low at the break, then we would see a rise, possibly to positive units to overcome the vig. That would have given us 20 units to work with, but now half of the units are already made up, so quickly, you can guess what will happen from here.
It doesn't matter if it's an OVER or UNDER heavy year, an extreme at the break usually gives us a change of direction thereafter.
We almost had it this year but guess is that the short term rises stick in the minds of the bettors while the long term bleed outs do not. There's a way to figure a potential bottom, but I suppose we should look at two weeks at a time and let that figure evolve.
Also, while OVERS are about -8.5 units betting UNDERS is more like -35 units to date. That might seem like a lot, but when you consider the 446-432 records, you can see how it can shift quickly within only a 14 game spread.
While the OVERS are winning the season, winning with the OVERS may be over, for the season.
Enough.
Last edited by KVB; 02-25-19, 12:11 AM.Comment -
have some thinking to do tomorrowComment -
Comment -
Comment -
Have to look at the journey not the destination
First half could have accurate lines based on the pregame parameters but the outcomes are swayed to one direction, then the book could adjust in the second half. the first half predictions might have been sharp with no pregame value, they just happened to land on one side of the coin. then when they adjust the value might be created in the pregame lineComment -
Check this out Doves...
Maybe the answers are right in front of us.Comment
