Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

[Shute]

KVB

How do you pay bills and feed the family when you have a bad month?

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Don’t worry about it Shute, things are being set up to where Mr Kevin Van Bullwinkle
will never have to worry about financial stresses again

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Man , I loved this guy

everyone from my childhood ....Everyone...

[DiggityDaggityDo]

KVB

How do you pay bills and feed the family when you have a bad month?

Obviously Fidels is paying him for sexy vids.

I know how to put 2 and 2 together

[Fidel_CashFlow]

we are survivors Daggles

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[KVB]

Alright, posting plays as I get back in the groove.

NCAAB Visiting Value Fund has picked up...

613		3-Jan	WRIGHT ST -4.5 (-105)
623			WILLIAM & MARY -1 (-105)
645			YOUNGSTOWN ST +12.5 (-105)

NCAAB Technical Value Fund has picked up...

605		3-Jan	IOWA +8 (-105)
612			MIAMI +3 (-105)
682			MANHATTAN +3.5 (-105)
685			MERCER +8 (-105)
707			JACKSONVILLE ST +7.5 (-105)

No longer posting Weekday UNDER basket, no longer betting it. It didn't lose as much as what was posted as I started posting it late, but it will go down a loser this year. It's lost its edge for sure.

[KVB]

KVB

How do you pay bills and feed the family when you have a bad month?

Simple, if I'm down, I just make a really big bet on the 30th or 31st.

No, just kidding.

To do this as a business, aside from growth, you have to plan better.

I could have several bad months, nothing will affect my family until I decide to take my pay, which could be quarterly or yearly.

I have to plan the money further out than a month to insulate from that variance.

Also, while most people shouldn't gamble with the rent money, it's best for me to not pay bills with the gambling money as it hurts the profit potential rolling through the year.

Can't let bills suck away the bankroll, so you really have to plan, even for emergencies.

I was going to have an extra little bonus this year, until the Rams shit the bed over the Eagles. Now I'll be taking less than I figured...lol.

I got greedy.

As long as I have a bankroll, we will be fine.

Looking to expand and invest though, to help reduce that variance some more.

But as long as there is a bankroll, then nothing else matters, for now.

[KVB]

Obviously Fidels is paying him for sexy vids.

I know how to put 2 and 2 together

Like I said, investing and expanding.

These vids are a breeze and the money is consistent.

Unlike the Rams and Eagles.

[KVB]

I wonder how much I'll get for my next vid.

I'll just post a screenshot so I don't ruin the surprise at the end...

[KVB]

Woke up, checking the screens, I missed two plays on the sheet.

The NCAAB Visiting Value Fund picked up...

659			ST MARY'S +3 (-111)
685			MERCER +8 (-105)

Mercer is in both funds. Missed the +3 earlier with lower vig, had to settle for -111.

Good Night.

[turtledoves]

It is what I do, Shute. Trading stocks too.

Having a big year, college football was a good season for me. There was a lot riding on it.

Sometimes it's tough to get and process information, act on it, then share it with the Forum before lines move.

It was a nice break.

May take a different approach to the Forum this year.

Maybe we start a video show, interview posters via skype or phone and drop some gambling knowledge at the same time.

bosses back home are not gonna like this

[turtledoves]

The “stacking percentages” forecast, as I call it, is basically determining a bunch of small edges, small percentages, and stacking them on top of each other to create a traditional black box type model. It’s fairly simplistic but accumulates a lot of relevant factors to achieve its results. Remember, I make many lines and some are made from pieces of the stacking forecast to gauge where the market is with certain factors in play.

For these forecasts a rating is generated for each team and then a predicted score calculated. Regressions are used and the goal is to get a low line error. The goal is try to get a more realistic score than the bookmaker can put out. One test of the stacking forecast is to compare its difference from the final score to the difference between opening and closing lines and the final score.

Say the stacking forecast predicts Pittsburgh to win by 7 points and the market is showing Pittsburgh -3. If Pittsburgh wins by 10 points the market was off of reality by 7 points. The forecast was off by 3 points. In this case, the forecast was closer to reality than the line. In my opinion, crossing key numbers can affect this error so the difference between 7 and 10 is relatively smaller than 3 points when compared to the line crossing through 4, 6, and 7 in its error. In that case the book ends up being off by more than 7 points, relatively speaking. Does that make sense?

The goal of the stacking forecast is to match or beat the market error at any given time. Having a lower line error is not necessary to beat the market. Remember, when I track the stacking forecast in threads, I use as little as half a point discrepancy against the lines. I track every play, not just triggered plays (like the sharp forecast in the NFL).

But we don’t bet every game and a subset of games is usually looked at, not every game. I am tough on myself when tracking at SBR, in the CFL thread the sharp forecast is also put up against a half point discrepancy. You can test the line error at any interval or margin predicted, not just a half point difference. This is where I mentioned in the past that a larger margin doesn’t always equal a better win rate. There’s a cap and it represents a danger to teams whose ratings are pushing highs for the season.


Think tank this shit.

setting up capabilities inspired by this post

[turtledoves]

Should I bet baseball tonight
Should I bet baseball tonight
Should I bet baseball tonight
Smokenjoke is a midget bitch
Should I bet baseball tonight


these are the thoughts running through my head

Gonna go grab a bottle of Bacardi
pray, like seriously even if you are not religious
go down to a knee and pray I dont come back on here later on drunk
cuz if i come back im going to be handing out ass whoopings left and right
then pick you fukks back up and sppon feed your already lifeless bodies another ass kicking

here are some examples of the worthless contributions by poster Fidel_CashFlow....what a drunken loser

[turtledoves]

ok ok ok

Ive been a good drunk up until now tonight

love me or hate me , at least give me that

but now (after finishing tha t last drink)

im ready to fight

Please walk through these doors(make a post)

and im going to swing blindly

[KVB]

[KVB]

Wow Doves, that post was a throwback for sure.

9-13-17.

Wow.

A reminder of why I was posting to begin with.

Just trying to get plays off is so dry, it seems.

I might have needed that...lol.

[KVB]

The NCAAB Visiting Value Fund has picked up...

609		3-Jan	MARSHALL +7.5 (-105)
615			ILLINOIS +11 (-105)
633			APP ST +1.5 (-105)
665			CAL +10.5 (-105)

I have missed the line movement on virtually all of these plays. Part of the reason is a lag on my part the other part deals with how and when I get certain information. I may choose to take that subset of plays and record them in a separate fund as it will likely ave a different record against the closer.

It's like a different season of sports and I may just separate pre conference and conference hoops play for SBR tracking.

Already, spending too much time thinking about tracking at SBR, maybe we narrow down to one teachable fund and write more about the game. Thinking this Fund is a food one...

The KVB NCAAB Technical Value Fund will track NCAAB plays derived from a stacking percentages forecast that is enhanced by a few technical, statistical tweaks. The forecast with these adjustments, when compared to the market, give us another decent spread opportunity throughout the seasons.

This Fund will also be comprised of underdogs, exploiting some of the public thirst for favorites, but gets its plays mainly from focusing more on the weightings of a few specific areas. These areas include defensive stats like field goal %, forced turnovers per game, opponents free throws, etc, and combine them with things like pace to find those teams that are just better than the number indicates and control the game more than the betting market realizes....

Wouldn't want to upset Sharon too much.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Awful nice of SBR to give me this trivia badge

i must of did something bad ass

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[KVB]

Awful nice of SBR to give me this trivia badge

i must of did something bad ass

Not me, I fukked up the easy question. I knew the ORE vs ORE ST was the civil war, and I still missed it.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

got some more vids for you my nigggggga

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Shute]

Fidels
I’m gonna sing the lyrics tomorrow and see what happens
I will be walking down the streets of Portland

[turtledoves]

[KVB]

The game is not far from me and tickets are going at a 90% discount from last year.

I don't think anybody from Bama or Clemson want to make the trip out, and those that would have seen this show before, more than once.

https://www.stubhub.com/2018-college-football-playoff-tickets/grouping/1496845/

That's pretty cheap.