Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**BrickJames** · 08-14-18, 03:29 PM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

It’s always so cold in there.

Sweet baby Jesus

**KVB** · 08-14-18, 04:51 PM

Alright, we've got two more conclusions for the Contrarian Fund.

N.Y. Mets vs Baltimore Orioles Under 9.5 (-102)MLB [General]
08/14/18 07:05 PM ET

Ch White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Under 9 (+100)MLB [General]
08/14/18 07:10 PM ET

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Under 7.5 (-102)MLB [General]
08/14/18 10:05 PM ET

Philadelphia Phillies +116MLB [General]
08/14/18 07:05 PM ET

CH White Sox +115MLB [General]
08/14/18 07:10 PM ET

**KVB** · 08-14-18, 05:20 PM

Added another Total, an Under in Houston...

N.Y. Mets vs Baltimore Orioles Under 9.5 (-102)MLB [General]
08/14/18 07:05 PM ET

Ch White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Under 9 (+100)MLB [General]
08/14/18 07:10 PM ET

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Under 7.5 (-102)MLB [General]
08/14/18 10:05 PM ET

Philadelphia Phillies +116MLB [General]
08/14/18 07:05 PM ET

CH White Sox +115MLB [General]
08/14/18 07:10 PM ET

Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros Under 7 (-106)MLB [General]
08/14/18 08:10 PM ET

**KVB** · 08-14-18, 05:32 PM

**KVB** · 08-14-18, 05:40 PM

Man TB, at least the runline, looks pretty good tonight, just outside the circle.

**KVB** · 08-14-18, 05:46 PM

Seeing some strong contrarian and RLM moves indicating an Under in TB/NYY.

So TB, and the Under, not a bad two pick. Wrong, a bad two pick, Under is a better bet.

**KVB** · 08-14-18, 05:50 PM

I'll tell you what, Philly shows a lot of promise here, but many on the board are thinking about it.

It sure does scream, almost one of those too good to bet games.

Often when one bet sticks out as "best bet" when all you are trying to do is grind, it's a loser.

**KVB** · 08-14-18, 05:54 PM

Walking down the card here, the Over in Mia/Atl is attracting what I see as sharp moves. There are too many different types hitting at once, sounds like a take down.

It is outside the circle, but I pick this Over to be a loser, one we're glad we don't have, let's see if they stay Under in Atl.

**KVB** · 08-14-18, 06:44 PM

Let's see how these WNBA plays go.

I see a sharp move on that NY/LA game. That +15 went to +14 and we basically have a public spread percentage on LA that is at notable level and we see sharp moves against. Over more than 200 plays we are approaching 59% for the dog here with NY +14. It is only 6-5 on the season.

The other game has a visiting Chicago with about even public support but that big 9.5 line is out there. If we got more public support, this might even be a better play than it looks. We have it at about 64% over more than 160 plays, 11-8 on the season, for Chicago +9.5.

It's so late in the year but some automation has helped me here.

Will be interesting to see how they go tonight.

Let's see what happens.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 08-14-18, 07:41 PM

I would love to eat her pie.

**turtledoves** · 08-14-18, 07:56 PM

gross, who would want the pie after her tongue was in it with all her girl cooties?

**turtledoves** · 08-14-18, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by KVB

I don't know, why the drop in JD

Seems solid, but I just don't know about playing China right now.

It is my price range.

Check the Total Return Fund latest posts.

I am building a cash position to make a move.

Why JD Doves.

Sell it to me. Don't want to hear about how analysts around you like it, unless you are clear on their time frames.

eating some cereal and the saw the letters J D in my spoon

i like the company, it is big and they sell a lot of shit according to some Chinese guy I know. baba went on a big run, thinking #2 might be overlooked by some and have more room for a rally. one day drop seemed too big, nearing 52 week low, trade fears fuel pessimism. they're investing to get the footing, already have a big footing. cut into profits short term but seems like a long term winner which is good for a short term trade. friday's calls had a breakeven price around 35, maybe pricing in a good earnings report or shrugging off the dip? maybe i should've sold a naked call. got a little profit, maybe walk away before the earnings if things go well tomorrow.

**KVB** · 08-14-18, 10:29 PM

Made chicken, Italian style, in the oven yesterday, good shit still today.

Son is a purple belt, and growing fast.

Stock wise still selling shit myself, building a cash position, and putting some of that sitting cash into STWD, for a bit.

I sold AMZN, MSFT, CELG and PFE, there will be no regret, it's now time to find the next ones to pop.

JD does seem like the right price and the right kind of stock and company. I am looking at it, really looking to find a few good trades over the next few weeks.

May be picking up more natty gas plays.

**KVB** · 08-14-18, 10:31 PM

All that volatilty in some of those tech stocks and stocks like JD, subject to major drops. Not sure I want to involved short term, but long term is a different story.

It looks I got push in one of the Totals, I would imagine my Under 7.5 in Oakland is toast.

**turtledoves** · 08-14-18, 11:49 PM

mini markets

there are markets everywhere

even markets in.....your thoughts

major drops, minor rewards is what I'm looking for

**KVB** · 08-14-18, 11:53 PM

Event Base Trading, excellent.

**KVB** · 08-14-18, 11:55 PM

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund since inception, through 124 plays, with SBR contest prices...

14-Aug	CHW/DET under 9 (+100)	0
	CHW +115	1.15
	SEA/OAK UNDER 7.5 (-102)	0.98
	PHI +116	-1
	NYM/BAL UNDER 9.5 (-102)	0.98
	COL/HOU UNDER 7 (-106)	0.94

	Tue	3.05

	Week 1	3.64
	Week 2	4.73
	Week 3	-5.88
	Week 4	2.15
	Mon	-0.45

	Total	7.24

**KVB** · 08-14-18, 11:59 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Let's see how these WNBA plays go.

I see a sharp move on that NY/LA game. That +15 went to +14 and we basically have a public spread percentage on LA that is at notable level and we see sharp moves against. Over more than 200 plays we are approaching 59% for the dog here with NY +14. It is only 6-5 on the season.

The other game has a visiting Chicago with about even public support but that big 9.5 line is out there. If we got more public support, this might even be a better play than it looks. We have it at about 64% over more than 160 plays, 11-8 on the season, for Chicago +9.5.

It's so late in the year but some automation has helped me here.

Will be interesting to see how they go tonight....

Chicago an outright winner and NY covered.

**KVB** · 08-15-18, 10:24 AM

Two totals so far this morning in the MLB Contrarian Fund...

Ch White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Over 9 (+102)MLB [General]
08/15/18 01:10 PM ET

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins Under 8 (-102)MLB [General]
08/15/18 01:10 PM ET

**turtledoves** · 08-15-18, 10:43 AM

mega markets

**KVB** · 08-15-18, 10:56 AM

Moved much of the Total Return Fund to cash, taking profit over the last couple of days.

I even sold AAPL, hoping to buy that an AMZN on a dip.

Markets pulling back today.

Seems like decent timing.

**KVB** · 08-15-18, 10:58 AM

The MLB Fund is starting to heat up again as well.

I'm telling you, those are winning picks and I hate when we get rained out, cancelled, delayed, or even a push.

Yeah, even a push. It was a winning pick (win or lose) and a push takes it away.

**KVB** · 08-15-18, 11:18 AM

Originally posted by KVB

Chicago an outright winner and NY covered...

Market situations change but I absolutely have to tell you this, Doves.

We have a third WNBA play under these circumstances, as the market stands. It's a swing game Doves, I think.

Further, it's a repeat team.

We have NY as +12 openers to Vegas and the line has ticked down to 11, even 10.5.

This is a mini market in your mega market.

What do you think the answer is in this game? Think we see a sweep? Think we see a bounce? Think we see an upset? A blowout? Perhaps a tough issue to settle? A comeback for one side?

**KVB** · 08-15-18, 11:35 AM

Fuk Doves, energy pulling back.

Glad I have cash now, may look to pile in the natty gas...CQP.

**KVB** · 08-15-18, 12:23 PM

Added a moneyline with Seattle...

Ch White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Over 9 (+102)MLB [General]
08/15/18 01:10 PM ET

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins Under 8 (-102)MLB [General]
08/15/18 01:10 PM ET

Seattle Mariners +112MLB [General]
08/15/18 03:35 PM ET

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 08-15-18, 12:55 PM

**KVB** · 08-15-18, 01:02 PM

Doves, remember that indication for Wrigley field posted a few days back?

We have it again today. On top of that, to no extreme the public (tickets) is on the Over while the bigger money is on the Under, from my samples and what I can see. The line has moved from 10.5 to 9.

Let's see if the Under pays. In the last 14 games, it has paid 5 straight twins, then 4 straight losses, then win, loss, win and finally a loss.

We're looking at 63% over more than 250 plays.

Wind out to left field, not a contrarian Fund play, but a strong play for sure. With that line move, expect a dirty ass 10 point game in Wrigley.

The Fund did well yesterday.

**KVB** · 08-15-18, 01:21 PM

Added another contrarian Under to the Fund....

Ch White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Over 9 (+102)MLB [General]
08/15/18 01:10 PM ET

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins Under 8 (-102)MLB [General]
08/15/18 01:10 PM ET

Seattle Mariners +112MLB [General]
08/15/18 03:35 PM ET

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Under 8.5 (-102)MLB [General]
08/15/18 03:35 PM ET

**turtledoves** · 08-15-18, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Market situations change but I absolutely have to tell you this, Doves.

We have a third WNBA play under these circumstances, as the market stands. It's a swing game Doves, I think.

Further, it's a repeat team.

We have NY as +12 openers to Vegas and the line has ticked down to 11, even 10.5.

This is a mini market in your mega market.

What do you think the answer is in this game? Think we see a sweep? Think we see a bounce? Think we see an upset? A blowout? Perhaps a tough issue to settle? A comeback for one side?

we see an under, pound it

cubs pound was a mistake, this is a guaranteed winner

**KVB** · 08-15-18, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by turtledoves

we see an under, pound it

cubs pound was a mistake, this is a guaranteed winner

Watch those guys in Wrigley hold, then hit 10 late, like I said, dirty ass 10 point game. Let's see if they can hit 11.

Don't pound these, only Fund plays, these are to watch. Don't cross to WNBA here either, keep them separate.

Wrigley Unders not a function, but the market knows the conditions so it can be treated as such.

I have another for MLB, another tie into Under and it's contrarian. Problem is that these have been hitting.

Three in a row, in fact. These are metrics we look at, these extremes (track your bets and why you made them).

Here it is, function mentioned before as well.

... ...We are talking about Under in Boston/Philly.

Not a fund play, yet. Sharon came through but it's a previously mentioned metric that hits the solid...

Under is a strong indication, but it has paid 3 times in a row.

**KVB** · 08-15-18, 02:59 PM

Always watching the market and it's functions.

**KVB** · 08-15-18, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by turtledoves

we see an under, pound it

cubs pound was a mistake, this is a guaranteed winner

Smart money on NY here, but that same money cleaned up yesterday.

It's a market of give and take.

**KVB** · 08-15-18, 03:15 PM

Sharon may have come through too soon, but it doesn't matter, you know basically what we're watching.

Sitting on 9 in Wrigley.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 08-15-18, 03:22 PM

**KVB** · 08-15-18, 03:51 PM

/\ /\ /\ No Bra Club /\ /\ /\