Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

[stevenash]

Dallas Mavs
Money Line +225 reduced juice 5Dimes

Want some? Go get some.

Pay 'da man.

[PerfectGrape]

nice hit. was gonna tail DAL but fell asleep. woke up and got over 205 in

[PerfectGrape]

anyone know where to find single game flagrant fouls/technical fouls on a box score/team stats page besides espn?

[stevenash]

nice hit. was gonna tail DAL but fell asleep. woke up and got over 205 in

You think Yogi is a keeper?
Cuban is loving him

[stevenash]

anyone know where to find single game flagrant fouls/technical fouls on a box score/team stats page besides espn?

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nba/stats/team-flagrant-fouls/2016/

[PerfectGrape]

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nba/s...nt-fouls/2016/

haven't seen this Yogi cat much, is he the real deal or one hit wonder?
thanks for the effort, should've been more clear, i'm looking for only individual game technical fouls/flagrant fouls.

scraping espn box scores/individ game team stats page but they are missing a game. was trying to scrape a secondary source that has TF/FF but hard to find one. i guess i'll have to go through the play by play and update the missing records manually


if you try to click this game, it takes you nowhere Tue, Nov 20 @ Philadelphia L106-98

http://www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/tor/year/2013

[stevenash]

haven't seen this Yogi cat much, is he the real deal or one hit wonder?
thanks for the effort, should've been more clear, i'm looking for only individual game technical fouls/flagrant fouls.

scraping espn box scores/individ game team stats page but they are missing a game. was trying to scrape a secondary source that has TF/FF but hard to find one. i guess i'll have to go through the play by play and update the missing records manually


if you try to click this game, it takes you nowhere Tue, Nov 20 @ Philadelphia L106-98

http://www.espn.com/nba/team/schedul.../tor/year/2013

Yogi is a shooter, not much defense, Indiana U hotshot, he'll be an OK pro, probably nothing more, think Lin when he was in New York, burst on the scene, then settled into just an OK pro.

[stevenash]

Griz money line +167

Even without Gasol on the bench and 74 year old Vince Carter in the starting line up.
T-Wolves hate playing for Tibs, bang the +4.5 and hammer the +167

[PerfectGrape]

whistle wetting with wiz o216.5, boston PL

[PerfectGrape]

Griz money line +167

Even without Gasol on the bench and 74 year old Vince Carter in the starting line up.
T-Wolves hate playing for Tibs, bang the +4.5 and hammer the +167

lets get it

[stevenash]

whistle wetting with wiz o216.5, boston PL

Wiz are always my go to bet the over team.
Whole team is under rated.
Wall is a top 5 point guard (sorry I don't consider the Greek Freak and Harden point guards)
Beal is a rock solid SG, I love the Polish Hammer in the middle and you better put a man on Otto or he'll scorch you all night.

I got a small play on that over myself.
Go get some Grape-man!

[PerfectGrape]

OT is coming

[PerfectGrape]

trying to run up acct before all-in play on pats

4-1 toronto oh shit

[PerfectGrape]

looking like an "it's only money" type of night

[stevenash]

looking like an "it's only money" type of night

Griz going to make me major bank tonight.
Like 1800 and change bank.
Got Griz +167 on money line for 500, and got +4.5 for a dime.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[PerfectGrape]

only one thing is guaranteed in life

[PerfectGrape]

... patriots victory

[PerfectGrape]

Griz going to make me major bank tonight.
Like 1800 and change bank.
Got Griz +167 on money line for 500, and got +4.5 for a dime.

saved my ass

[PerfectGrape]

[PerfectGrape]

when is the best time to bet NE? this line isn't budging

[KVB]

lol at the buy in the orange/rd shirt a the top. He jumps over to help, the guy doesn't need it, but he's determined to lend a hand to someone.

[KVB]

No timing this one grapes, just get it if you want it.

Took a trip to Nevada, Tahoe area, for Hoops. I didn't get a chance to keep writing about golf, but you can see one of those pairs pairs (Hun An) in the lead, a clear dog, with a favorite golfer in Matsuyama threatening.

This has significance.

On Friday, One of my golfers and one of those pairs was in the lead, I would have had the sharks out if I were posting.

So from the looks of things, we see a lot of dogs winning and covering and top teams losing yesterday. One thing you don't have the benefit of knowing from yesterday, the single best day to bet hoops all year (Sat before the Super Bowl), are how the forecasts did. I wasn't around to post them.


We have a long shot golfer in the lead Saturday night and put it all together we see a lot of underdog "persuasion" in the marketplace.

Golf is still not decided, and because that golfer has a 2 stroke leas early in the round, it's worth watching further. The moment we think we know the answer, it is likely not the answer.

I feel a bit rushed, I haven't had a chance to go over those pairings and golf positions with the thread. Either way, the picture I was painting in those last posts is showing a bit.

And right now, it looks like an underdog in golf. Mickelson may still inject himself into the picture.

I took some UNDER for the Superbowl in Tahoe, but the trading account is down to 57.5. I haven't given a bold play for the Superbowl, but I'll try to talk something out here.

It's tough to see Atlanta AND the UNDER coming in this game.

[KVB]

...I could write some lengthy posts on juggernaut franchises (a bit of a Tiger Woods effect), the spoiling OVER score, and how these seem to come into play here...

So many know the Tiger Woods effect as him being so favored in golf tourneys that the other golfers were all at great “value.”

But I’m talking about a different, related effect. I’m talking about how many professional bettors, and those who analyze the market to bet, often find themselves rooting for the UNDER, or even against the public “darlings.”

Many bets were lost trying to go against Tiger Woods, and some could say that’s one of the reasons he did so well. Likewise, pro bettors and analyists have often found themselves on the wrong side of history. It’s a characteristic of the marketplace.

Whether you are trying to get the Browns to win a game or the Patriots to lose a game, market signals send bettors that way week after week, only to see history being made against them. Those riding those streaks only rarely become a long term threat to the markets, mostly because of their decision making process.

I can see bettors this SuperBowl hoping for Atlanta and the UNDER, only to find a late splash of the pile with NE and an OVER.

While everyone cheers on the Greatest of All Time with one of the best games of all time, the long term bettors may just be grumbling a little, knowing they had the numbers, but just chalking it up to a loss.

It seems to happen that away a lot, it’s a behavior of the marketplace.

Truthfully, this topic deserves more detail and evidence for the thread, but time is short and it’s something I wanted to get out as something to think about.

[KVB]

...Also, notice the split on the TOTALS. Sharp forecast is high, stacking forecast is low, and the public gauge is right on the line. While the sharp forecast has looked good with lines at these levels (even though no bet was triggered), the stacking forecast has lost seven straight against the totals. In six of those games it predicted an UNDER. The famous Pittsburgh vs. KC settlement game had the stacking forecast wrongly predicting the OVER.

So these are the forecasts. Initially, I like the UNDER...

...The stacking forecast has Atlanta winning 28-21. This result was very close to having Atlanta scoring 28 or 31 points with equal probability. In the objective end, and consistent with my posting, we must go with 28 points for Atlanta. This is the same forecast that was 9-1 ATS and 8-1 against the moneyline for the playoffs....

I do want to say something about the stacking forecast and it’s TOTAL prediction. While I use any discrepancy when measuring against the line, it’s a strict method.

The stacking forecast, at 49, or even the potential 52 is still a very high score. And when an algorithm may try to determine whether or not there is a bet, it may pass on the UNDER here.

It’s similar to the sharp forecast being high, but the line being too high to trigger a bet. Because of the nature of the 50’s and low 50’s, evidence doesn’t always show many advantage plays here. If the stacking forecast was predicting 47.5, on the other hand, buying would clearly be triggered.

So even though the stacking forecast is low, it certainly doesn’t reflect the kind of buying that it seems. I think we’ve seen this same principle earlier in the thread with spread, where a 14 point win shows much more than a 13, 11 or even 10 point win…maybe it was the National Championship game.

The line movement, down to 57.5, has not, in my opinion, been significant here, and what I’m saying is that I think the UNDER could be a good buy here given the lack of enthusiasm, if you will, for the bet.

[KVB]

...If we think New England covers, then look for a longer shot in golf. If we think Atlanta covers, then look for a favorite in golf...

...we don’t just have to figure the Super Bowl, we can work on indications from golf. Because of this fact, expect some ambiguity in the golf result right before the Superbowl. If it’s obvious (like Atlanta taking and holding the lead against GB), then we have to be skeptical that this relationship is being exploited...

Golf showing the obvious underdog with about a half of a round to go with some solid favorites threatening.

But the obvious underdog just came on Championship weekend, with New England coming through? Can it happen again?

Expect some drama before this golf tournament ends.

[KVB]

Remember this post?

...Let’s look at the bookmaker’s perspective...

If a book takes -120 on New England and offers +100 on Pittsburgh then, from the bookmaker’s standpoint, he can often look at it this way: as a bettor hands him $120 to win $100 for New England, another bettor gives $100 to win to win $100 for Pittsburgh.

The bookmaker has taken in $220. If New England wins, he pays out $220; but if Pittsburgh wins, he pays out $200.

The book knows that the marketplace knows about this fact. It’s often used to lure bettors as well as for profit margins. It represents just one more mechanical aspect of the cat and mouse game, the give and take of the marketplace.

New England is trying to demoralize the Pittsburgh bettors, trying to keep them from coming back for more.

If there’s anyone the marketplace wants to scare off, it’s those Pittsburgh bettors hitting the line late. The public steam that looks to be froth tonight for the books that also hit that line is easy pickings often enough....

Have you seen the price on the 3 point line over the last few days at Pinnacle?

[stevenash]

when is the best time to bet NE? this line isn't budging

It's not going to budge either.
It opened at 3 flat, remained 3 flat midweek, it's still 3 flat, and it will close at 3 flat.
It's the sharpest betting line in the history of bookmaking.

Having said that, certain books are juicing certain sides.
Look for a book that offers NE -3 (-105)

[KVB]

At one point we have to wonder whether New England just wins this thing by a field goal or less. Can you see why?

[KVB]

No timing this one grapes...

It's not going to budge either...

Agreed, if it moves, all hell will break loose. And I mean ALL Hell.

[KVB]

...For golf I have indication that we will see a favorite, sending the market analyst to the underdog in the Super Bowl. This is tough, because, like I already said, it feels like we are being walked right into the underdog...

...Golf is still not decided, and because that golfer has a 2 stroke leas early in the round, it's worth watching further. The moment we think we know the answer, it is likely not the answer...

Golf showing the obvious underdog with about a half of a round to go with some solid favorites threatening...
Expect some drama before this golf tournament ends...

Han Un, the underdog, had a 3 stroke lead, and now is tied with Matsuyama, a solid favorite.

There's still a lot of golf left, one third of a round.

It's a bit like the 3rd quarter come back...the one that happens too soon.

[stevenash]

I'm about to be on the receiving end of a brutal up the ass backdoor cover without prison lube too.