Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

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  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 65335

    #54146
    Originally posted by stevenash
    Dallas Mavs
    Money Line +225 reduced juice 5Dimes

    Want some? Go get some.


    Pay 'da man.
    Comment
    • PerfectGrape
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 09-20-11
      • 6761

      #54147
      nice hit. was gonna tail DAL but fell asleep. woke up and got over 205 in
      Comment
      • PerfectGrape
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 09-20-11
        • 6761

        #54148
        anyone know where to find single game flagrant fouls/technical fouls on a box score/team stats page besides espn?
        Comment
        • stevenash
          Moderator
          • 01-17-11
          • 65335

          #54149
          Originally posted by PerfectGrape
          nice hit. was gonna tail DAL but fell asleep. woke up and got over 205 in
          You think Yogi is a keeper?
          Cuban is loving him
          Comment
          • stevenash
            Moderator
            • 01-17-11
            • 65335

            #54150
            Originally posted by PerfectGrape
            anyone know where to find single game flagrant fouls/technical fouls on a box score/team stats page besides espn?
            Comment
            • PerfectGrape
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 09-20-11
              • 6761

              #54151
              haven't seen this Yogi cat much, is he the real deal or one hit wonder?
              thanks for the effort, should've been more clear, i'm looking for only individual game technical fouls/flagrant fouls.

              scraping espn box scores/individ game team stats page but they are missing a game. was trying to scrape a secondary source that has TF/FF but hard to find one. i guess i'll have to go through the play by play and update the missing records manually


              if you try to click this game, it takes you nowhere Tue, Nov 20 @ Philadelphia L106-98

              ESPN has the full 2024-25 Toronto Raptors Regular Season NBA schedule. Includes game times, TV listings and ticket information for all Raptors games.
              Comment
              • stevenash
                Moderator
                • 01-17-11
                • 65335

                #54152
                Originally posted by PerfectGrape
                haven't seen this Yogi cat much, is he the real deal or one hit wonder?
                thanks for the effort, should've been more clear, i'm looking for only individual game technical fouls/flagrant fouls.

                scraping espn box scores/individ game team stats page but they are missing a game. was trying to scrape a secondary source that has TF/FF but hard to find one. i guess i'll have to go through the play by play and update the missing records manually


                if you try to click this game, it takes you nowhere Tue, Nov 20 @ Philadelphia L106-98

                http://www.espn.com/nba/team/schedul.../tor/year/2013
                Yogi is a shooter, not much defense, Indiana U hotshot, he'll be an OK pro, probably nothing more, think Lin when he was in New York, burst on the scene, then settled into just an OK pro.
                Comment
                • stevenash
                  Moderator
                  • 01-17-11
                  • 65335

                  #54153
                  Griz money line +167

                  Even without Gasol on the bench and 74 year old Vince Carter in the starting line up.
                  T-Wolves hate playing for Tibs, bang the +4.5 and hammer the +167


                  Comment
                  • PerfectGrape
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 09-20-11
                    • 6761

                    #54154
                    whistle wetting with wiz o216.5, boston PL
                    Comment
                    • PerfectGrape
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 09-20-11
                      • 6761

                      #54155
                      Originally posted by stevenash
                      Griz money line +167

                      Even without Gasol on the bench and 74 year old Vince Carter in the starting line up.
                      T-Wolves hate playing for Tibs, bang the +4.5 and hammer the +167


                      lets get it

                      Comment
                      • stevenash
                        Moderator
                        • 01-17-11
                        • 65335

                        #54156
                        Originally posted by PerfectGrape
                        whistle wetting with wiz o216.5, boston PL
                        Wiz are always my go to bet the over team.
                        Whole team is under rated.
                        Wall is a top 5 point guard (sorry I don't consider the Greek Freak and Harden point guards)
                        Beal is a rock solid SG, I love the Polish Hammer in the middle and you better put a man on Otto or he'll scorch you all night.

                        I got a small play on that over myself.
                        Go get some Grape-man!
                        Comment
                        • PerfectGrape
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 09-20-11
                          • 6761

                          #54157
                          OT is coming
                          Comment
                          • PerfectGrape
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 09-20-11
                            • 6761

                            #54158
                            trying to run up acct before all-in play on pats

                            4-1 toronto oh shit
                            Comment
                            • PerfectGrape
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 09-20-11
                              • 6761

                              #54159
                              looking like an "it's only money" type of night
                              Comment
                              • stevenash
                                Moderator
                                • 01-17-11
                                • 65335

                                #54160
                                Originally posted by PerfectGrape
                                looking like an "it's only money" type of night
                                Griz going to make me major bank tonight.
                                Like 1800 and change bank.
                                Got Griz +167 on money line for 500, and got +4.5 for a dime.
                                Comment
                                • Fidel_CashFlow
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 12-03-12
                                  • 53970

                                  #54161
                                  Comment
                                  • Fidel_CashFlow
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-03-12
                                    • 53970

                                    #54162
                                    Comment
                                    • Fidel_CashFlow
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 12-03-12
                                      • 53970

                                      #54163
                                      Comment
                                      • Fidel_CashFlow
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-03-12
                                        • 53970

                                        #54164
                                        Comment
                                        • PerfectGrape
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 09-20-11
                                          • 6761

                                          #54165
                                          only one thing is guaranteed in life
                                          Comment
                                          • PerfectGrape
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 09-20-11
                                            • 6761

                                            #54166
                                            ... patriots victory

                                            Comment
                                            • PerfectGrape
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 09-20-11
                                              • 6761

                                              #54167
                                              Originally posted by stevenash
                                              Griz going to make me major bank tonight.
                                              Like 1800 and change bank.
                                              Got Griz +167 on money line for 500, and got +4.5 for a dime.
                                              saved my ass
                                              Comment
                                              • PerfectGrape
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 09-20-11
                                                • 6761

                                                #54168
                                                Comment
                                                • PerfectGrape
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 09-20-11
                                                  • 6761

                                                  #54169
                                                  when is the best time to bet NE? this line isn't budging
                                                  Comment
                                                  • KVB
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 05-29-14
                                                    • 74817

                                                    #54170
                                                    Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow
                                                    lol at the buy in the orange/rd shirt a the top. He jumps over to help, the guy doesn't need it, but he's determined to lend a hand to someone.

                                                    Comment
                                                    • KVB
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 05-29-14
                                                      • 74817

                                                      #54171
                                                      No timing this one grapes, just get it if you want it.

                                                      Took a trip to Nevada, Tahoe area, for Hoops. I didn't get a chance to keep writing about golf, but you can see one of those pairs pairs (Hun An) in the lead, a clear dog, with a favorite golfer in Matsuyama threatening.

                                                      This has significance.

                                                      On Friday, One of my golfers and one of those pairs was in the lead, I would have had the sharks out if I were posting.

                                                      So from the looks of things, we see a lot of dogs winning and covering and top teams losing yesterday. One thing you don't have the benefit of knowing from yesterday, the single best day to bet hoops all year (Sat before the Super Bowl), are how the forecasts did. I wasn't around to post them.


                                                      We have a long shot golfer in the lead Saturday night and put it all together we see a lot of underdog "persuasion" in the marketplace.

                                                      Golf is still not decided, and because that golfer has a 2 stroke leas early in the round, it's worth watching further. The moment we think we know the answer, it is likely not the answer.

                                                      I feel a bit rushed, I haven't had a chance to go over those pairings and golf positions with the thread. Either way, the picture I was painting in those last posts is showing a bit.

                                                      And right now, it looks like an underdog in golf. Mickelson may still inject himself into the picture.

                                                      I took some UNDER for the Superbowl in Tahoe, but the trading account is down to 57.5. I haven't given a bold play for the Superbowl, but I'll try to talk something out here.

                                                      It's tough to see Atlanta AND the UNDER coming in this game.

                                                      Comment
                                                      • KVB
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 05-29-14
                                                        • 74817

                                                        #54172
                                                        Originally posted by KVB
                                                        ...I could write some lengthy posts on juggernaut franchises (a bit of a Tiger Woods effect), the spoiling OVER score, and how these seem to come into play here...
                                                        So many know the Tiger Woods effect as him being so favored in golf tourneys that the other golfers were all at great “value.”

                                                        But I’m talking about a different, related effect. I’m talking about how many professional bettors, and those who analyze the market to bet, often find themselves rooting for the UNDER, or even against the public “darlings.”

                                                        Many bets were lost trying to go against Tiger Woods, and some could say that’s one of the reasons he did so well. Likewise, pro bettors and analyists have often found themselves on the wrong side of history. It’s a characteristic of the marketplace.

                                                        Whether you are trying to get the Browns to win a game or the Patriots to lose a game, market signals send bettors that way week after week, only to see history being made against them. Those riding those streaks only rarely become a long term threat to the markets, mostly because of their decision making process.

                                                        I can see bettors this SuperBowl hoping for Atlanta and the UNDER, only to find a late splash of the pile with NE and an OVER.

                                                        While everyone cheers on the Greatest of All Time with one of the best games of all time, the long term bettors may just be grumbling a little, knowing they had the numbers, but just chalking it up to a loss.

                                                        It seems to happen that away a lot, it’s a behavior of the marketplace.

                                                        Truthfully, this topic deserves more detail and evidence for the thread, but time is short and it’s something I wanted to get out as something to think about.

                                                        Comment
                                                        • KVB
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 05-29-14
                                                          • 74817

                                                          #54173
                                                          Originally posted by KVB
                                                          ...Also, notice the split on the TOTALS. Sharp forecast is high, stacking forecast is low, and the public gauge is right on the line. While the sharp forecast has looked good with lines at these levels (even though no bet was triggered), the stacking forecast has lost seven straight against the totals. In six of those games it predicted an UNDER. The famous Pittsburgh vs. KC settlement game had the stacking forecast wrongly predicting the OVER.

                                                          So these are the forecasts. Initially, I like the UNDER...
                                                          Originally posted by KVB
                                                          ...The stacking forecast has Atlanta winning 28-21. This result was very close to having Atlanta scoring 28 or 31 points with equal probability. In the objective end, and consistent with my posting, we must go with 28 points for Atlanta. This is the same forecast that was 9-1 ATS and 8-1 against the moneyline for the playoffs....

                                                          I do want to say something about the stacking forecast and it’s TOTAL prediction. While I use any discrepancy when measuring against the line, it’s a strict method.

                                                          The stacking forecast, at 49, or even the potential 52 is still a very high score. And when an algorithm may try to determine whether or not there is a bet, it may pass on the UNDER here.

                                                          It’s similar to the sharp forecast being high, but the line being too high to trigger a bet. Because of the nature of the 50’s and low 50’s, evidence doesn’t always show many advantage plays here. If the stacking forecast was predicting 47.5, on the other hand, buying would clearly be triggered.

                                                          So even though the stacking forecast is low, it certainly doesn’t reflect the kind of buying that it seems. I think we’ve seen this same principle earlier in the thread with spread, where a 14 point win shows much more than a 13, 11 or even 10 point win…maybe it was the National Championship game.

                                                          The line movement, down to 57.5, has not, in my opinion, been significant here, and what I’m saying is that I think the UNDER could be a good buy here given the lack of enthusiasm, if you will, for the bet.

                                                          Comment
                                                          • KVB
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 05-29-14
                                                            • 74817

                                                            #54174
                                                            Originally posted by KVB
                                                            ...If we think New England covers, then look for a longer shot in golf. If we think Atlanta covers, then look for a favorite in golf...

                                                            ...we don’t just have to figure the Super Bowl, we can work on indications from golf. Because of this fact, expect some ambiguity in the golf result right before the Superbowl. If it’s obvious (like Atlanta taking and holding the lead against GB), then we have to be skeptical that this relationship is being exploited...
                                                            Golf showing the obvious underdog with about a half of a round to go with some solid favorites threatening.

                                                            But the obvious underdog just came on Championship weekend, with New England coming through? Can it happen again?

                                                            Expect some drama before this golf tournament ends.


                                                            Comment
                                                            • KVB
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 05-29-14
                                                              • 74817

                                                              #54175
                                                              Remember this post?

                                                              Originally posted by KVB
                                                              ...Let’s look at the bookmaker’s perspective...

                                                              If a book takes -120 on New England and offers +100 on Pittsburgh then, from the bookmaker’s standpoint, he can often look at it this way: as a bettor hands him $120 to win $100 for New England, another bettor gives $100 to win to win $100 for Pittsburgh.

                                                              The bookmaker has taken in $220. If New England wins, he pays out $220; but if Pittsburgh wins, he pays out $200.

                                                              The book knows that the marketplace knows about this fact. It’s often used to lure bettors as well as for profit margins. It represents just one more mechanical aspect of the cat and mouse game, the give and take of the marketplace.

                                                              New England is trying to demoralize the Pittsburgh bettors, trying to keep them from coming back for more.

                                                              If there’s anyone the marketplace wants to scare off, it’s those Pittsburgh bettors hitting the line late. The public steam that looks to be froth tonight for the books that also hit that line is easy pickings often enough....

                                                              Have you seen the price on the 3 point line over the last few days at Pinnacle?

                                                              Comment
                                                              • stevenash
                                                                Moderator
                                                                • 01-17-11
                                                                • 65335

                                                                #54176
                                                                Originally posted by PerfectGrape
                                                                when is the best time to bet NE? this line isn't budging
                                                                It's not going to budge either.
                                                                It opened at 3 flat, remained 3 flat midweek, it's still 3 flat, and it will close at 3 flat.
                                                                It's the sharpest betting line in the history of bookmaking.

                                                                Having said that, certain books are juicing certain sides.
                                                                Look for a book that offers NE -3 (-105)
                                                                Comment
                                                                • KVB
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 05-29-14
                                                                  • 74817

                                                                  #54177
                                                                  At one point we have to wonder whether New England just wins this thing by a field goal or less. Can you see why?

                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • KVB
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 05-29-14
                                                                    • 74817

                                                                    #54178
                                                                    Originally posted by KVB
                                                                    No timing this one grapes...
                                                                    Originally posted by stevenash
                                                                    It's not going to budge either...
                                                                    Agreed, if it moves, all hell will break loose. And I mean ALL Hell.

                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • KVB
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 05-29-14
                                                                      • 74817

                                                                      #54179
                                                                      Originally posted by KVB
                                                                      ...For golf I have indication that we will see a favorite, sending the market analyst to the underdog in the Super Bowl. This is tough, because, like I already said, it feels like we are being walked right into the underdog...
                                                                      Originally posted by KVB
                                                                      ...Golf is still not decided, and because that golfer has a 2 stroke leas early in the round, it's worth watching further. The moment we think we know the answer, it is likely not the answer...
                                                                      Originally posted by KVB
                                                                      Golf showing the obvious underdog with about a half of a round to go with some solid favorites threatening...
                                                                      Expect some drama before this golf tournament ends...
                                                                      Han Un, the underdog, had a 3 stroke lead, and now is tied with Matsuyama, a solid favorite.

                                                                      There's still a lot of golf left, one third of a round.

                                                                      It's a bit like the 3rd quarter come back...the one that happens too soon.




                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • stevenash
                                                                        Moderator
                                                                        • 01-17-11
                                                                        • 65335

                                                                        #54180
                                                                        I'm about to be on the receiving end of a brutal up the ass backdoor cover without prison lube too.
                                                                        Comment
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