Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Good luck KVB.

I didnt bet this game.

Rooting for you!

[KVB]

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Tough choice.

I'll take #6 I guess.

[KVB]

Nice try Texans.

Looks like that game brought 4 losses initially but 3 wins live. I guess I was missing just one more live bet on the OVER for that game.

[KVB]

I may have been fooled, here, led to slaughter with the masses...

Looks like the line opened with Hawaii -1 and moved towards Long Beach.

I have Hawaii winning this game by 14 points and the public gauge says Hawaii wins by 3 points.

I think the wrong team is currently favored as pressure on Long Beach isn't borne out of algorithms.

Not much time for more analysis except to say the wrong team being favored in this spot, at night, doesn't sit well at the moment. That said, I countered the pressure with Hawaii +3 (-110)...

Short Description

Basketball - 680 Hawaii +3 -110 for Game

That last move to 3 might be the savior.

[Jayvegas420]

[PerfectGrape]

lot of buzz around this packers game, over looking like a lock

[Jayvegas420]

Over is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games overall.
Over is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Packers last 5 vs. NFC.
Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Packers last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 road games.
Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 12-3 in Packers last 15 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Jay, I take it you are betting the over.

[KVB]

Not a lot of time today so let’s get to the numbers.

Sharpest forecast has Green Bay winning this game 31-24. It’s calling for an upset against the money line. On one hand, the lack of Nelson is an issue, on the other hand it’s accounted for in the forecast. (I rarely talk about players).Clearly this triggers a Green Bay bet. In my opinion, the marketplace TOTAL is in line with this forecast, so no automatic bet triggered.

The stacking forecast has Dallas winning 28-17. That should create action up over 6. It also indicates the other side of the line from the sharp forecast, showing an UNDER. This forecast has been correct against the spread and moneyline in every playoff game but has failed against the TOTAL 3 times in a row now giving it a 3-3 playoff record.

The public gauge has Dallas winning 28-24.

That line pressed upward for Dallas but I think that sharper forecast may show its influence in the marketplace. Checking now, it shows downward pressure towards Green Bay. I think it is wise to stick with the sharper forecast here. No time to get into all the pressures, but you know the obvious.

I like how the money is split against the moneyline between those forecasts. All those early pushes leave a small gap, created by the marketplace itself, but I will take a shot against the moneyline nonetheless. I can see how creating a thirst for an upset and putting those sharper bettors on that side is good for the books, but we’ll assess that when the game is over.

I have to be quick and am trying to play each game in this thread so I picked up Green Bay +185 and +4.5 (-106) over Dallas.

It’s a strange thing with these totals and I think the next game will be a better bet. I think the line is too high for me and I actually lean towards the stacking forecast for an UNDER bet.

In checking, I see the line is up to 53.5 and tend to want to counter that action. One problem here is that the sharper forecast has failed against TOTAL bets all playoffs, when triggered and I tend to think that the line opening so close and moving towards 55 sidelines some of the sharper groups, allowing the market to pay the OVER.

But I’m often a contrarian, I also see a potential TOTAL bet next game, and the price is cheap for me, therefore I am taking in the trading account UNDER 53.5 (-102) for Green Bay vs. Dallas.

You see the situation however, and we can learn if that bet is wrong.

I wish I had more time to give more explanation and market analysis.

Good Luck

[KVB]

...All those early pushes leave a small gap, created by the marketplace itself, but I will take a shot against the moneyline nonetheless...

What I mean here is the sharper forecast not having a moneyline prediction for 3 of the 4 games in the first playoff weekend. I mentioned that the performance against moneyline can be used as a type of gauge. That gap prevents us from analyzing certain factors.

Where the sharper forecast has produced a moneyline prediction in the playoffs, it has been correct every time.

With that knowledge, Green Bay could be in trouble. Or KC could be. The schedule was set to settle a movement of money. Predicting that type of schedule ahead of time is very profitable, and is more likely to occur during market swells (like NFL playoffs).

But remember, typical of NFL muddying the waters, the schedule changed and now the Green Bay vs. Dallas game is first.

Fukkers.

I heard from a source in KC that tickets in KC were as low as $10 secondary for fear of weather. After the time change, the range of prices went up 8 fold.

They might have 80,000 people there tonight, it can hold over 76,000.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Yes... Green Bay... Lets go!

[KVB]

I just picked up Green Bay live at about 2-1...

Short Description

Football - 307 Green Bay Packers +4½ -106 for Game

Football - 307 Green Bay Packers +185 for Game

Football - 307 Green Bay Packers/Dallas Cowboys under 53½ -102 for Game

Short Description

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Sony Open in Hawaii - Odds to win the Sony Open In Hawaii 2017 - Spieth, Jordan +550

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Sony Open in Hawaii - Odds to win the Sony Open In Hawaii 2017 - Field (any other player) +450

- Money Line: GB Packers +201.98 - Sun Jan 15 2017 16:23EST: GB Packers @ DAL Cowboys

The good news is that Dallas scored first...lol.

[KVB]

Yes... Green Bay... Lets go!

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Good live bet, KVB.

Wish I had been thinking about that.

[KVB]

Good live bet, KVB.

Wish I had been thinking about that.

Yeah, trying to make up for betting so late in the account. Not much difference between 5.5 and 4.5, but still a difference, especially the moneyline.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

She doesn't know which team she likes.








That's Alexis Texas by the way.

[KVB]

Only 10 points in the 1st quarter but they are poised for a score at the beginning of the second.

I have posted more than once how scores at the beginning of the second lead to OVERS.



Packers now favored live.

[KVB]

...Predicting that type of schedule ahead of time is very profitable, and is more likely to occur during market swells (like NFL playoffs)...

With a GB win the sharper forecast only has KC left (I'll post those in a minute). Those trying to predict a settlement would be thinking and buying Pitt.

These are the situations that lead to misleading games. I've said in the past that the game is played to different audiences. If you don't think so, then just remember those late night "meaningless" scores that change both the spread and TOTAL result of a game.

This playoff game carries that chance of deception, but maybe it's with the TOTAL. The caveat is that this is supposed to be the second game today. Perhaps they are just dispensing with the pleasantries and getting the Green Bay win out of the way.

One piece of information we are close to securing is that it can't be Dallas and the UNDER.

Everything else may not be decided until the 4th quarter. My hope is that the market is drawing in that Cowboy money and plans to keep it as they are forced to give back that Pittsburgh money.

[KVB]

I switch windows to see a Dallas TD.

[KVB]

...This playoff game carries that chance of deception, but maybe it's with the TOTAL...

Clearly it can't be Dallas and the UNDER, but the OVER is not in the bag.

[KVB]

...Everything else may not be decided until the 4th quarter...

[KVB]

With a GB win the sharper forecast only has KC left (I'll post those in a minute). Those trying to predict a settlement would be thinking and buying Pitt.

These are the situations that lead to misleading games...

A bit of panic for some sharp Pittsburgh holders.

[KVB]

I think it's a fake Dallas comeback. I think the comeback was too predictable, especially with the sharp forecast having an early lead. I also think the way the second half ended and the lines during that time that were offered, that the market was selling the Dallas comeback.

I'm going to post my next post with the assumption that Green Bay is the winner of the game.

This way, you can see how sharp money can flow and that how they bring it is just as important as what they bring.

I would not be surprised to see this game dragged out to after 5:00 and if Green Bay loses, this next play on Pittsburgh is likely wrong.

The flow of money that I mentioned towards Pittsburgh is the reason this game is looking like OT, leaving the moneyline result ambiguous to the bettors. This is the playoffs baby.

Stick that in your pipe and smoke it...

[KVB]

So game two which was supposed to be game one is played in Arrowhead.

The sharp forecast has Kansas City winning 28-24. That Triggers a bet on Kansas City at a pick or even -1/2 point. At KC -1 the bet is no longer triggered. An OVER bet is triggered to 47.5, but not at 48.

The stacking forecast has each team scoring 24 points. It predicts a tie with KC given the slight edge in the raw score. This also implies an OVER at these levels.

The public gauge has Kansas City winning 23-20.

I have this line opening very early with Pittsburgh -1. It’s no surprise that the line has moved towards my line making KC nearly a field goal favorite. The TOTAL opened at 46.5 and dropped below the key 45 but then climbed back to 45. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go up a bit.

I have metrics indicating an upset in this game and those metrics will be reacted to by some groups of market moving money. I believe the early line of Pittsburgh -1 was intentional by the originators and they knew exactly what would happen.

That aside, it brings up debate. From the standpoint of my metrics, who is the underdog in this game? I’ve posted a little about the importance of openers, and this idea of measuring everything against the closing line isn’t always helpful. The linesmakers know the obsession with closer in the marketplace and often play into that obsession.

Make no mistake, some bettors sought a great deal with an early Pittsburgh +1; such a privileged deal, that most bettors never had a chance. But bettors were given a chance at a pick em, still within bet triggering range. By the time the rest of the public got involved, they were laying for KC.

Public steam and the aura of Arrowhead could very well push this line to -3 points. On a very minor technical note, we saw this same movement last night in the final NCAAB game. Market analysts who understand the broader picture will likely seek the opposite result, giving another reason to buy KC. It’s small, but it’s just an example and small reasons can add up.

More importantly, it can be very difficult to get my sharp forecast to pay an underdog moneyline in these playoffs, which is happening with Green Bay. The fact is it can be so difficult in these give and take markets, that the game following that payout isn’t likely to favor the sharper moneyline prediction at all (probabilities change at different times of the season).

The stacking forecast has no moneyline winner. Follow or fade, these guys are sidelined.

I’m not go into much more except to say that I have picked up Pittsburgh Steelers +120 over Kansas City Chiefs.

In terms of the TOTAL the sharp forecast has lost all four triggered bets against the TOTAL. The stacking forecast has lost its last four against the TOTAL. Both indicate OVER and I see indications that the market is selling the UNDER to certain groups.

Other metrics indicate more of a split as well. This is a good time for those TOTAL forecasts to hit and for the cheaper price I have taken OVER 45.5 (-103) for Pittsburgh vs. Kansas City.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

I can't emphasize enough how difficult it is to get a moneyline underdog forecast to pay in the NFL playoffs. To give you an idea on the public, well known side, it took 6 consecutive home favorite winners over 3 playoff days to finally get it.

From the less obvious, behind the line, side you have seen how certain driving forecasts had to line up for this upset.

Take Pittsburgh.

To Win	Short Description
	Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers +120 for Game
	Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers/Kansas City Chiefs over 45½ -103 for Game
	Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers +120 for Game
	Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers +120 for Game Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers/Kansas City Chiefs over 44 -135 buying 1½ for Game
Open	Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers +120 for Game

That's right, I opened a 4 pick parlay with an upset moneyline.

[KVB]

I can't emphasize enough how difficult it is to get a moneyline underdog forecast to pay in the NFL playoffs. To give you an idea on the public, well known side, it took 6 consecutive home favorite winners over 3 playoff days to finally get it...

I forgot to mention that the very previous game was one of the largest spreads in playoff history covering.

Now, I must say that I've called in some extremely large Pittsburgh bets, including the spread.

But in the end, I believe the moneyline will count.

Also, remember my posts about the AFC North and the upset I believe is coming? Well, it doesn't have to be a 10 point upset, a small line in an NFL playoff game would have the same effect.

We've been patient enough.

[KVB]

One more on the moneyline, it moved...

To Win	Short Description
	Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers +120 for Game
	Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers/Kansas City Chiefs over 45½ -103 for Game
	Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers +120 for Game
	Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers +120 for Game Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers/Kansas City Chiefs over 44 -135 buying 1½ for Game
Open	Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers +120 for Game
	Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers +115 for Game

[DiggityDaggityDo]

^^^^^ hawt

[KVB]

Agreed, these Steeles girls are fukkin Hawt...




I picked up +3.5...

Short Description

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Sony Open in Hawaii - Odds to win the Sony Open In Hawaii 2017 - Spieth, Jordan +550

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Sony Open in Hawaii - Odds to win the Sony Open In Hawaii 2017 - Field (any other player) +450

- Point Spread: PIT Steelers +3.5 -112.121 - Sun Jan 15 2017 20:10EST: PIT Steelers @ KC Chiefs

[KVB]

...I must say that I've called in some extremely large Pittsburgh bets, including the spread.

But in the end, I believe the moneyline will count...

Taunting that 1 point KC win this early tells me it's not the 1 point KC win.

I hope.

[KVB]

[PerfectGrape]

like a score with her

[KVB]

like a score with her

I know Grapes, I know.

These Steelers girls might be the best so far, even going back to the bowl games.

[KVB]

I went ahead with a second half OVER 23. I tried -110, but they moved it.

To Win	Short Description
	Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers +120 for Game
	Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers/Kansas City Chiefs over 45½ -103 for Game
	Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers +120 for Game
	Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers +120 for Game Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers/Kansas City Chiefs over 44 -135 buying 1½ for Game
Open	Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers +120 for Game
	Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers +115 for Game
	Football - 305 Pittsburgh Steelers/Kansas City Chiefs over 23 -115 for 2nd Half