Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 04:31 PM

Some playoff numbers.

Sharp forecast has Houston winning 21-14.

Stacking percentages line has Houston winning 27-14.

Public gauge has Oakland winning 21-20.

As far as the line goes, both 37 and 38 are Key total numbers. There haven't been too many lines down in the 37 or 38 range this year. It can be tough to move between these numbers and you can see that in the marketplace.

What I can say is that there are pressures from groups and analysts, further than just the forecasts, on the UNDER. At the same time, some of the sharper forecasts themselves tend to lead UNDER...it is very hard for the NFL market to drop below 37 and that is why that pressure isn't very visible.

This would send a contrarian analyst with a broader sense of the market towards the OVER. It could be the answer, but he needs to be patient.

It's the second game that may show the TOTAL payoff for today. I'll address those numbers next but I would expect to see some deception in the first game, perhaps regarding the TOTALS. I'm a bit rushed here, but I'll continue this in another post.

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 04:34 PM

I'm going ahead with the UNDER 38 (-108) in the trading account for Oakland vs. Houston, countering what seems to be an OVER push to 38.

A bit of a gamble here.

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 04:39 PM

I guess I wasn't the only one, that line coming back to 37.5. I believe the market circumstances are ripe for the books as they are drawing plenty of action on the TOTALS. Sometimes the line gets the action and moves occur, sometimes moves occur to help generate the action.

What happened here?

I took the UNDER but you can see a situation where the first game can bait bettors in with enticing action, when the reality is that patience is what's needed.

The next game may very well be a bold play.

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 04:40 PM

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 06:41 PM

My current positions in the trading account...

To Win	Short Description
	Golf - 7313 J. Spieth -215 for Game Golf - 7323 D. Berger -156 for Game Golf - 7328 H. Matsuyama -160 for Game
	Football - 101 Oakland Raiders/Houston Texans under 38 -108 for Game
	Football - 103 Detroit Lions/Seattle Seahawks over 44½ -108 for Game
Open	Football - 103 Detroit Lions/Seattle Seahawks over 43 -142 buying 1½ for Game

Short Description

- Game Total: Under 47.5 -117.172 - Sat Jan 07 2017 16:19EST: OAK Raiders @ HOU Texans

- Game Total: Under 45.5 -117.172 - Sat Jan 07 2017 16:19EST: OAK Raiders @ HOU Texans

- Game Total: Under 47.5 -122.222 - Sat Jan 07 2017 16:19EST: OAK Raiders @ HOU Texans

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 06:44 PM

That's a golf parlay

Spieth vs. Hoffman.

Matsuyama vs. Dufner

Berger vs. Herman.

All for today's round...parlay pays 2.9 to 1.

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...Sharp forecast has Houston winning 21-14...

Forgot to mention, as I should have, this triggered a bet on Houston -3 but once it hit 4 the bet was no longer triggered.

I passed on the side at every number.

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 07:32 PM

For the second playoff game I have a tie, with each team scoring 28 points. Detroit gets a .5 point edge in the raw score. This tie triggers a bet on the Detroit to +3.5 points.

The stacking forecast has Seattle winning 28-16. The public gauge has a closer game with Seattle winning with 21 or 23 points to Detroit’s 16 points.

The TOTAL line opened at 43 and we have seen it move higher, off of 43 and even through 44 at some points, towards the sharper forecast. Note the stacking forecast is in line with the TOTAL and the public gauge is calling for an UNDER.

With some programs and bettors sidelined on the total the books have used other metrics to drive action. I can identify several metrics that drive different groups towards that UNDER. Some of these groups could be identified as a streak breaking type bettors…though for different reasons…and some contrarian type bettors.

Further, various consensus numbers seem to indicate a number of tickets on the OVER. Contrarian type bettors often mistakenly put too much weight on this type of information, sending them towards and UNDER.

In this give and take world of sports markets, those groups that are successful (the give) on the first game OVER are moving their winnings to the second game UNDER, and they are likely to fail (the take).

There seem to be far too many market “mentalities” heading towards an UNDER bet here. I think the sharper forecast may be the correct one for game two and I’ve picked up the OVER 44.5 (-108) for the Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks.

This is not the best line that could have been obtained throughout the week and, in a case where so much money seems so obviously directed, this could be costly. As a result, I have started a 4 team open parlay buying the TOTAL down to the opening line of 43.

I expect this total to climb higher, further towards my sharper forecast.

Good Luck

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by KVB

I'm going ahead with the UNDER 38 (-108) in the trading account for Oakland vs. Houston, countering what seems to be an OVER push to 38.
A bit of a gamble here...

Originally posted by KVB

...I took the UNDER but you can see a situation where the first game can bait bettors in with enticing action, when the reality is that patience is what's needed...

Nomsayin'?

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by PerfectGrape

...impossible for me to get that "smoked too much" feeling from flowers. think i need to move to cali...

Now that I think about it, I was only using oils for over a week before getting this strain. The oils are potent, but the bud is a more overall effect.

This could have had something to do with it. Although it's still tough to "get used" to...lol.

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 08:06 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...Stacking percentages line has Houston winning 27-14...

Over confidence in this forecasting method is a dangerous thing, despite being dead on for this particular game.

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 08:16 PM

Here's the account now...

To Win	Short Description
	Football - 103 Detroit Lions/Seattle Seahawks over 44½ -108 for Game
Open	Football - 103 Detroit Lions/Seattle Seahawks over 43 -142 buying 1½ for Game
	Football - 103 Detroit Lions +388 for Game
	Football - 103 Detroit Lions +8½ -119 buying 1 for Game Football - 103 Detroit Lions/Seattle Seahawks over 43 -156 buying 2½ for Game

Tried to get +8.5 and they moved it to +7.5, had to buy a point...only in the trading account.
Good Luck

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 08:51 PM

I took two more shots live...

Short Description

- Game Total: Over 41.5 -122.222 - Sat Jan 07 2017 19:57EST: DET Lions @ SEA Seahawks

- Game Total: Over 36.5 -127.273 - Sat Jan 07 2017 19:57EST: DET Lions @ SEA Seahawks

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 08:53 PM

Actually one more...

To Win	Short Description
	Football - 103 Detroit Lions/Seattle Seahawks over 44½ -108 for Game
Open	Football - 103 Detroit Lions/Seattle Seahawks over 43 -142 buying 1½ for Game
	Football - 103 Detroit Lions +388 for Game
	Football - 103 Detroit Lions +8½ -119 buying 1 for Game Football - 103 Detroit Lions/Seattle Seahawks over 43 -156 buying 2½ for Game
	Football - 9103 In Progress Detroit Lions/In Progress Seattle Seahawks over 35½ -120 for Game

**PerfectGrape** · 01-07-17, 10:26 PM

sitting on +9.5, figured it probably wouldn't land on 10

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 10:29 PM

Hoping for a 20-20 tie to head to OT.

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 10:30 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Can I just say one thing.

Fuk you Jordan Spieth.

I said to some friends and myself a year ago that Spieth is shit and just had his run for market reasons. Yet somehow, I find his heavily favored ass in my parlay.

I know I usually don't post like this, and the round is far from over, but still, Fuk that guy.

Ok, so, uh, yeah, uh, ummm...so Spieth came back and my parlay hit.

Still, fuk that guy.

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 11:05 PM

Originally posted by KVB

I took two more shots live...

Short Description

- Game Total: Over 41.5 -122.222 - Sat Jan 07 2017 19:57EST: DET Lions @ SEA Seahawks

- Game Total: Over 36.5 -127.273 - Sat Jan 07 2017 19:57EST: DET Lions @ SEA Seahawks

...

Short Description

- Game Total: Over 41.5 -122.222 - Sat Jan 07 2017 19:57EST: DET Lions @ SEA Seahawks

- Game Total: Over 36.5 -127.273 - Sat Jan 07 2017 19:57EST: DET Lions @ SEA Seahawks

- Game Total: Over 35.5 -117.172 - Sat Jan 07 2017 19:57EST: DET Lions @ SEA Seahawks

- Game Total: Over 33.5 -122.222 - Sat Jan 07 2017 19:57EST: DET Lions @ SEA Seahawks

Is there room for one more TD?

**PerfectGrape** · 01-07-17, 11:10 PM

join me in the losers circle kvb

let's pop the champagne

**Auto Donk** · 01-07-17, 11:12 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Some playoff numbers.

Sharp forecast has Houston winning 21-14.

Stacking percentages line has Houston winning 27-14.

Public gauge has Oakland winning 21-20.

As far as the line goes, both 37 and 38 are Key total numbers. There haven't been too many lines down in the 37 or 38 range this year. It can be tough to move between these numbers and you can see that in the marketplace.

What I can say is that there are pressures from groups and analysts, further than just the forecasts, on the UNDER. At the same time, some of the sharper forecasts themselves tend to lead UNDER...it is very hard for the NFL market to drop below 37 and that is why that pressure isn't very visible.

This would send a contrarian analyst with a broader sense of the market towards the OVER. It could be the answer, but he needs to be patient.

It's the second game that may show the TOTAL payoff for today. I'll address those numbers next but I would expect to see some deception in the first game, perhaps regarding the TOTALS. I'm a bit rushed here, but I'll continue this in another post.

hmm..... i'd say this shit is pretty reliable.....

ship it a pizza card!!!!!!!!!

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 11:12 PM

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 11:13 PM

Sorry guys, that bold play was shit.

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 11:19 PM

Originally posted by PerfectGrape

join me in the losers circle kvb

let's pop the champagne

**PerfectGrape** · 01-07-17, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by KVB

My guess is that the news and fines aren't as bad as it seems. There is some talk that the fraud affected revenues, but who knows.

Truth is this bank will probably move with the sector. I wouldn't be surprised to see this pass. It's like reprimanding the NFL ref the next day for a bad call that decided money. The people just assume everything is ok now, and unknowingly wait for it to inevitably happen again.

We'll see what kind of reputation it can command.

f-n bastards. crazy bank rally
WFC $55.04

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 11:35 PM

All that QE coming through. Of course, CNBC won't mention that. They do mention the new investor money coming in, which are basically the guys who decided not invest anymore after getting burned in 2008.

How quickly they forget.

I heard one bank say "buy on the election, sell on the inauguration."

Could be that inevitable pullback on it's way.

Is that Auto Donk's wife?....

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 11:58 PM

CashFlow?

**KVB** · 01-07-17, 11:58 PM

**KVB** · 01-08-17, 12:39 AM

Matsuyama will be a threat but I just bought this...

Short Description

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Tournament of Champions - Odds to win 2017 PGA Tournament of Champions - Justin Thomas +110

**KVB** · 01-08-17, 05:45 AM

For the Pittsburgh vs. Miami game my sharp forecast once again shows a tie, this time 31-31 with Pittsburgh having a slight edge in the raw score. This tie triggers a bet on Miami down to +3.5. A bet is also triggered on the OVER up to 47.5.

The stacking forecast has Pittsburgh winning 31-14. The public gauge has Pittsburgh winning 27-20.

For the TOTAL, the opening line was 47.5. I can see pressure on the OVER from some groups despite the movement through 47, which is decent and onto 45.5, which is not as significant. Because of the specific opener, it could be the case here that the TOTAL has moved down to trigger bets on the OVER from numbers predicting that higher result.

It will be interesting to see if that line bounces off of 45.5 or somehow heads to 45. It is my position that we do not see 45, but more likely some insignificant movement to 46 or 46.5.

In either case, the OVER bet appears to be in jeopardy and with the current movement I am considering the UNDER play. Should that line make it back to 47 by game time I would also consider countering that pressure with an UNDER play. It could be, and would be interpreted as, an attempt to add some steam to OVER bets.

In fact, the game time steam may be the reason or one reason the line sits at 45.5 right now…allowing that upward pressure (and appearance of pressure) to come in and only have the line get back to the opener.

Let’s see what happens as we draw closer to game time.

**KVB** · 01-08-17, 06:28 AM

Upsets come in many different forms. Upsets can beget upsets, as the market tries to right its ship to find the favorites, bettors can lose. Sometimes, upsets can become due. But it’s not because there hasn’t been an upset in a while and therefore one should just appear…it’s not that simple.

Upsets can become “due” for several reasons. In these give and take markets, we can often see different types of upset seekers and their patience being tested by various bookmaking techniques. One group is baited one week, they lose. The next week it’s another group, seeking a different type metric leading to an upset, that is baited before losing. The following week another separate metric is tested, only to find the upset doesn’t come.

Some weeks a few groups get tested, some weeks everyone gets tested; other weeks it’s many of the groups, some weeks just one.

Not only do bookmaking techniques serve to drive bettors, but situations, numbers, “spots” and countless other “reasons” can be derived from the marketplace to steer the bettors.

Eventually, as bettors fail to outsmart the books time and time again, they become ripe for the upset. It finally pays. Because it pays odds, it may take a few failed tests and temptations before the payout comes. It’s part of the give and take.

Over the last quarter of the season I have seen the marketplace ripen itself for an upset in specific areas. When looking at the AFC North I can see that the market for an upset is in play. Cleveland getting its first win most certainly had to be protected, and most certainly was with many failed tests throughout the division leading up to the inevitable win. And a big win it was, highly anticipated as it is hard to go winless in the NFL.

I have been predicting a big upset in this division for nearly 6 weeks, and I don’t believe Cleveland was enough to satisfy the appetite for an upset.

On a more macro level, I have several metrics indicating an upset abounds. Now, that macro level transcends the entire marketplace. The last time I had such indications, I won a bet on the CFL Grey Cup, which just so happened to be one of the biggest upsets in history. All this attention to macro indicators could point us right into the NCAA Championship, with a Clemson upset…that would make some sense.

But back to the micro level, there is still an unsatisfied appetite even with an NCAA upset. I have seen countless techniques tempt the bettors to no avail and have been predicting an upset in the AFC North for quite some time now. Quite frankly, I don’t see and haven’t seen a bigger upset opportunity around than the Miami Dolphins +512 and +11.5 (-104) over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Good Luck.

**KVB** · 01-08-17, 07:14 AM

Look at me! I'm just splashing the forum with bold plays...

Originally posted by KVB

It's not going to be an easy year for Mackenzie Hughes. When he does make the cut, he's going to be worn out come Sundays. The (-130) price isn't exactly a great value, but I think the winning bet is meant to be a bit unpalatable.

I picked up Jhonattan Vegas (-130) over Mackenzie Hughes for round 4...

**Jayvegas420** · 01-08-17, 10:02 AM

Although I hate the term due, I can't disagree with some of the analysis in that previous post. I don't know if Miami can pull this off today but Pittsburgh might be due for a terrible game. I don't know if the line movement is a very good indicator of how this game might play out but I am also thinking Miami with the points.

**KVB** · 01-08-17, 01:18 PM

I agree Jay, there is a danger with that term "due" and bettors that tend to "chase" are in big time dangers as well. By the time a payout comes their way, they've used up their funds chasing.

If an upset doesn't come, one could easily start chasing until the Steelers win a Superbowl...lol.

I missed kickoff time but took the UNDER after the Pitt TD.

Short Description

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Tournament of Champions - Odds to win 2017 PGA Tournament of Champions - Justin Thomas +110

- Game Total: Under 52.5 -117.172 - Sun Jan 08 2017 13:00EST: MIA Dolphins @ PIT Steelers

**KVB** · 01-08-17, 01:21 PM

Today's trading tickets so far...

Short Description

Football - 105 Miami Dolphins +11½ -104 for Game

Football - 105 Miami Dolphins +512 for Game

Golf - 7403 J. Vegas -130 for Game

Football - 105 Miami Dolphins +13 -124 buying 1½ for Game
Golf - 7403 J. Vegas -130 for Game

Short Description

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Tournament of Champions - Odds to win 2017 PGA Tournament of Champions - Justin Thomas +110

- Game Total: Under 52.5 -117.172 - Sun Jan 08 2017 13:00EST: MIA Dolphins @ PIT Steelers

- Game Total: Under 51.5 -127.273 - Sun Jan 08 2017 13:00EST: MIA Dolphins @ PIT Steelers

**KVB** · 01-08-17, 01:23 PM