Lets face it only squares bet on the NFL

[TheCentaur]

I bet $2 last year on 3 team ML parlay and won over 100 frog.

That just sounds funny

[chopperocker]

im glad they do cuz thats why im able to find value. the squares dont handicap travel, start time, days of rest and the "look ahead".

[stevenash]

^
squares bet 'names' also.
Names like Notre Dame in NCAA, and Packers and Pats in NFL.
Squares send off teams like Green Bay at -14 when they should be -11

[RawBillyIce]

sometimes 3 team parlay can win a lot more than that

obviously had some luck on my side but just saying wish I would have put my piggy bank on Buster Douglas over Tyson back in da days. Lines were what ? 100/1

[Sledge187]

Wow so Billy Walters is dropping over a mil every Sunday for nothing? Thanks for the insight. You wont be able to beat the NFL in the long run because you obviously don't want to. You beat yourself man, have a little determination.

Great post! Losers are losers bc they listen to people who can't do it themselves. There plenty of posters on this site that kill the NFL.

[stevenash]

You can beat a game, you can't beat the games

[Easy-Rider 66]

sometimes 3 team parlay can win a lot more than that

obviously had some luck on my side but just saying wish I would have put my piggy bank on Buster Douglas over Tyson back in da days. Lines were what ? 100/1

I believe Tyson was a 43/1 favorite over Douglas. Great fight in Tokyo.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

NFL has value, especially with the live-wagering. I usually look for middling opportunities like last night. With live wagering, the books are usually taking heavy public action on the over and the fav against the spread and they typically adjust the live-lines for it. I think NFL is the most difficult sport given it's the most exposed U.S. sport and there's not very many games for the books to set lines for.

My favorite sport to bet is baseball. Baseball is a game of isolated actions and stats are much more indicative of what will likely occur. I also like hockey. Like frogs said, you have to understand that dogs have their days a lot more than they would in other sports. Sport I can't cap, because I don't follow, is basketball--ncaa, nba, and wnba.

[frogsrangers]

bgsu should be favored your wrong.

Care to explain?

I have watched both teams in both of their games this year

Toledo should have beaten Arizona in Week 1, who turned around and whooped Oklahoma State. Then Toledo went into Laramie and beat a tough Wyoming team in their place at 8,000 ft altitude.

Bowling Green, while they hung with Florida, turned around and struggled with a terrible Idaho team at home last week. If Bowling Green was worth a shit they would have blown out Idaho. Idaho is bad, this team lost 20-3 at home to Eastern Washington, no reason why BGSU should have only won by a touchdown.

Based on the fact that Toledo is at home and they have looked better than Bowling Green, they should be favored

[convick]

Care to explain?

I have watched both teams in both of their games this year

Toledo should have beaten Arizona in Week 1, who turned around and whooped Oklahoma State. Then Toledo went into Laramie and beat a tough Wyoming team in their place at 8,000 ft altitude.

Bowling Green, while they hung with Florida, turned around and struggled with a terrible Idaho team at home last week. If Bowling Green was worth a shit they would have blown out Idaho. Idaho is bad, this team lost 20-3 at home to Eastern Washington, no reason why BGSU should have only won by a touchdown.

Based on the fact that Toledo is at home and they have looked better than Bowling Green, they should be favored

If you would have done any research you would have realized the starting QB was out the first game. Blackman didnt play against E. Washington. I would venture to say that his absence the first game was why they looked like total shit.

[onacloud]

10-0 so far in NFL

[stevenash]

Sagarin has Toledo 16 better than BGSU with home field.
That's all I need to know, Sagarin is a MIT math genius, and 16 is HUGE

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc12.htm

[Dexter]

NFL not too hard

NBA easy money come playoffs

Tennis majors pretty good, outside majors very hard

MLB impossible. I never bet on 1 MLB game before I came to this fukkin site. I've lost thousands on MLB I can't even name 30 players in the league. Impossible to bet. Worst team in the league can beat the best team on any given day. Retarded sport.

Impossible to cap where the balls are going to land on a particular day. A team could be on fire swinging the bat one day and the next they get 1 hit. Stupid sport. No athleticism involved.

Nothing to cap. You can't cap a baseball game. There is no matchup diagnosis.

this is all just relative. what might be easy for you is hard to someone else and vice versa...

[wantitall4moi]

NFL can be beat but the ROI is shit.

Guys that claim to win at it should check to see what their profits are and then compare that to how much they have risked to make those profits.

Guy that 'make a lot of money' betting the NFL ultimately have to bet a lot of money.

So like I have always said, unless youre over betting you arent making enough money betting the NFL to make it worth your while.

All over betting does is eventually catch up to you and bury you.

NFL is for suckers and wannabe gamblers, so they can brag to their buddies they made money on Sunday. These guys always conveniently forget they have lost their asses for years, but as long as they get to brag about one win they dont care.

You can spot bet or find an off ML somewhere and make a score, but it isnt something you can take a long term approach to an expect consistent returns. You make bets way more than you should compared to any sound money management plan, and hope you win. So its basically a coin flip sport. You take 5 or 10 K and plan on making 2 or 3 bets and look to get on a streak. If you do THEN you can cash out with some decent profits versus your net worth. basically the only way to do well in the NFL is to bet more than you can afford to lose and get lucky. So IMO that isnt a sport you want to be betting on a regular basis.

Even when I was betting for a living and my only source of income was from gambling I maybe bet 20-30 games a season, that was it. I made a profit from them every year but not nearly worth the risk as I generally made bet sizes that were too large. Much easier to pick of bad baseball lines than it is to dick around with the NFL.

[stevenash]

Toledo easy money cash

[face]

My favorite sport to bet is baseball. Baseball is a game of isolated actions and stats are much more indicative of what will likely occur. I also like hockey.

tons of dogs, good totals, love betting baseball and hockey.

nfl so damn hard, no idea if streaky qb's are gonna have a bad day like cutler, sanchez, eli, romo.

oakland has to wear their hot black uniforms tomorrow because dolphins are wearing their white ones. it's gonna be 95 degrees in miami and raiders are gonna be hot and on an early schedule from travel. have no idea if this is gonna matter at all. this is nfl capping

[Balco10]

Rams +3 is the play of the day!

[CapperGuy]

Wow so Billy Walters is dropping over a mil every Sunday for nothing? Thanks for the insight. You wont be able to beat the NFL in the long run because you obviously don't want to. You beat yourself man, have a little determination.

You hit a very good point there, I encounter big fish around here all the time making a decent living off strictly the NFL. If you employ certain spot betting strategies the NFL is rather easy to beat. If you bet on the NFL in a degenerate fashion or play a lot of games on Sunday then you will probably lose in the long run. I think the first 3 weeks of the NFL is a gold mine, it's rather easy to take advantage of matchups in the early weeks. Sit on your winnings early on and play it out only on games you're fairly confident about, use your capital to your advantage and bust the books wide open. Either way, BOL to you guys this season!

[justwin52]

NFL can be beat but the ROI is shit.

Guys that claim to win at it should check to see what their profits are and then compare that to how much they have risked to make those profits.

Guy that 'make a lot of money' betting the NFL ultimately have to bet a lot of money.

So like I have always said, unless youre over betting you arent making enough money betting the NFL to make it worth your while.

All over betting does is eventually catch up to you and bury you.

NFL is for suckers and wannabe gamblers, so they can brag to their buddies they made money on Sunday. These guys always conveniently forget they have lost their asses for years, but as long as they get to brag about one win they dont care.

You can spot bet or find an off ML somewhere and make a score, but it isnt something you can take a long term approach to an expect consistent returns. You make bets way more than you should compared to any sound money management plan, and hope you win. So its basically a coin flip sport. You take 5 or 10 K and plan on making 2 or 3 bets and look to get on a streak. If you do THEN you can cash out with some decent profits versus your net worth. basically the only way to do well in the NFL is to bet more than you can afford to lose and get lucky. So IMO that isnt a sport you want to be betting on a regular basis.

Even when I was betting for a living and my only source of income was from gambling I maybe bet 20-30 games a season, that was it. I made a profit from them every year but not nearly worth the risk as I generally made bet sizes that were too large. Much easier to pick of bad baseball lines than it is to dick around with the NFL.

I didn't know you had to bet alot to make alot of money on san fransico...i mean +200...obvi 500 pay 1000 and 2000 pay 4000 etc.. or 50 100 w/e and i didnt know rg3 +400? i think saints were -600+ and they lost. so....you dont really have to risk alot. you just got to know which teams are not getting the credit they deserve....not necessarrliy that easy

i mean tamp bucs were +120 and so were the arizon cardinals beating seahawks...those are huge dogs and reasonable + bets you can take and win...i mean like cam is only +3 against brees lol

[Parligod]

At first I thought this thread would be pointless but there's been some great responses by experienced people in various sports. Nice to see that from those who succeed their formulas often touch on similar rules (doing your homework, spot betting, discipline, etc).

[unluckysob]

Did they arrest the guy that broke the chair----like to have seen that---do not usually see wood chairs in casinos

[CappinTerp]

I have been betting sports for 30 + years,now this does not mean I am good or know what I am talking about.............but I agree that the NFL is the hardest sport to make money in.!!! Good luck guys.

[wantitall4moi]

I didn't know you had to bet alot to make alot of money on san fransico...i mean +200...obvi 500 pay 1000 and 2000 pay 4000 etc.. or 50 100 w/e and i didnt know rg3 +400? i think saints were -600+ and they lost. so....you dont really have to risk alot. you just got to know which teams are not getting the credit they deserve....not necessarrliy that easy

i mean tamp bucs were +120 and so were the arizon cardinals beating seahawks...those are huge dogs and reasonable + bets you can take and win...i mean like cam is only +3 against brees lol

I had the 9ers, only bet I made. I didnt bet a game at all today. 2-1 is OK but it is still a risk. You can't unload in the NFL and have a safety net to fall back into like you do MLB, NCAA hoops, or even the NBA

While I think my opinion and reasoning is solid it isnt nearly enough to go crazy betting the NFL where anything can happen. Scoring system is too jacked up to actually handicap games with any sort of reliability. A muffed punt, a missed FG, even a penalty can be a 10-14 point swing, no way you can handicap that and anyone who claims they can is full of shit. You just bet a game hoping it is mistake free on both sides, which happens less than 25% of the time.