Anyone Know how Games Showing RLM Did in NFL week 1?

[k13]

Do you understand the logic behind RLM? How about the parameters?? Use the NYG/PHI game as an example without leaving 5 holes in your explanation.

The biggest 3 dichotomous games in Week 4 all went in favor of the public, yet we're supposed to believe contrarian betting is dominating?

Unbelievable.

Maybe you are the one who does not understand it...

Public on the Giants, the line goes the other way and closes higher than the opener. RLM.

Yes the "public" was 7-6 overall this week but that's nothing to do with RLM.

[bobbyk1133]

Maybe you are the one who does not understand it...

Public on the Giants, the line goes the other way and closes higher than the opener. RLM.

Yes the "public" was 7-6 overall this week but that's nothing to do with RLM.

First of all, try to find me one consensus opening line for the NYG/PHI game. The same goes for the closing line. The fact is smart money took the Giants at +2.5 and the Eagles at -1 or -1.5. The only people who didn't cash that game were the squares who took a bad number. Also, what did the game close at? I'm seeing most people say -2. If not, what book are you using for these openers and closers? CRIS? Pinny? You're not going to find a consensus on half of these numbers.

The point is anyone can spin some of these games as "RLM" if their goal is to justify the theory and vice versa.

And I never said anything about 7-6. If contrarian betting is your thing and you faded the biggest 3 public plays, you got your ass handed to you...regardless of what cherry-picking parameters you want to use to fit your "system".

Common sense has to be used at some point...no?

[k13]

First of all, try to find me one consensus opening line for the NYG/PHI game. The same goes for the closing line. The fact is smart money took the Giants at +2.5 and the Eagles at -1 or -1.5. The only people who didn't cash that game were the squares who took a bad number. Also, what did the game close at? I'm seeing most people say -2. If not, what book are you using for these openers and closers? CRIS? Pinny? You're not going to find a consensus on half of these numbers.

The point is anyone can spin some of these games as "RLM" if their goal is to justify the theory and vice versa.

And I never said anything about 7-6. If contrarian betting is your thing and you faded the biggest 3 public plays, you got your ass handed to you...regardless of what cherry-picking parameters you want to use to fit your "system".

Common sense has to be used at some point...no?

The only lines that matter is pinnacle and that's all I use for any example.

Opened -1, Closed -1.5, There were -2.5 and -2 in there for a short time but that's really irrelevant.

I see your point about different lines at different books which is why you should only use one consistency. But majority of the time the spread does not even come into play.

There's nothing to justify, there is no system.

Are you disagreeing with the games I listed as winners and losers in RLM?

I did not start this thread, other people were interested in.
RLM was 3-5 in the 1st two weeks of the NFL even though the Public got killed so they don't always correlate.

I was on the Pats and Niners this week so not sure why you think I'd just fade the public blindly or something.
Even though that has nothing to do with the thread.
Always interesting to keep track, even if you use it or not.

[bobbyk1133]

The only lines that matter is pinnacle and that's all I use for any example.

Opened -1, Closed -1.5, There were -2.5 and -2 in there for a short time but that's really irrelevant.

I see your point about different lines at different books which is why you should only use one consistency. But majority of the time the spread does not even come into play.

There's nothing to justify, there is no system.

Are you disagreeing with the games I listed as winners and losers in RLM?

I did not start this thread, other people were interested in.
RLM was 3-5 in the 1st two weeks of the NFL even though the Public got killed so they don't always correlate.

I was on the Pats and Niners this week so not sure why you think I'd just fade the public blindly or something.
Even though that has nothing to do with the thread.
Always interesting to keep track, even if you use it or not.

Pinny is as sharp as they come, but their openers/closers must be taken with a grain of salt when it's around the teaser window. They often open -1 with heavy juice while the rest of the world is -2.5. Same goes for -9 when the rest are -7.5. Don't you think it's curious that is never brought up in this topic? It's just ignored like 100 other factors that make this whole thing silly.

The whole concept is supposed to be fading the big public plays because so-called smart money moved the line the other way. If that's not blindly fading the public and following sharp money, then what is it?

Also, can you define what is a real opening number these days? If you understand the market then you'll know not a lot of money is required to move soft opening lines on Sunday night. The widely available numbers don't even come out until Monday morning/afternoon. Should THESE be considered true opening lines? This is all very open to debate, especially when you consider the low limits on Sunday.

The entire foundation of this approach is so badly flawed and outdated it's borderline absurd. You think a big site like Sports Insights is going to admit that? Hell no. They keep pushing it out there as if this was still 2005 and nothing has changed in the markets.

RLM is still appealing to people for a few reasons..

1 - it's lazy, requires next to no effort or handicapping

2 - it used to produce results

3 - its simple to understand

4 - it implies they are doing something smarter than the masses

Sexy idea, but very misleading. Things aren't black and white like they used to be...

[k13]

I agree with some of your points but I don't feel like arguing over semantics all day.


RLM is 17-10 so far this year.

[NYSportsGuy210]

I agree with some of your points but I don't feel like arguing over semantics all day.


RLM is 17-10 so far this year.

Post which games show RLM for week 6 then K13.

[k13]

Post which games show RLM for week 6 then K13.

So far but early :

Titans vs Steelers
Cincy vs Browns
Dallas vs Baltimore
Patriots vs Seahawks

[jrmartin.mig]

1-0 this week. While I do believe in RLM to an extent, it's not to be used as lazy handicapping as someone earlier had suggested. As far as RLM losing though, remember even the books get it wrong sometimes.

[k13]

So far but early :

Titans vs Steelers
Cincy vs Browns
Dallas vs Baltimore
Patriots vs Seahawks

I'm just sayin it does not work....right...

[NYSportsGuy210]

I'm just sayin it does not work....right...

Went 4-0 in week six. Fcukin A.