Anyone Know how Games Showing RLM Did in NFL week 1?

[rm18]

Oak opened -1, closed -1.

This is the problem, supposedly RLM is so easy to spot and keep track yet everyone is mentioning bunch of different games that are not.

ok I guess you are right but SD was like -2, 2 weeks ago.

[rm18]

but also it take a lot more money to move the line late than move it early so most of the big money on Oakland

[k13]

Even if you only hit 50% you should be hitting decent amount of dogs along the way.

Let's say you went with Chiefs, Tampa, Arizona, Steelers. So you went 2-2 and lost on juice......

But why would you be taking +2.5, +2, +3, +1.5 or whatever when you are flipping coins anyway?

+125 lose
+125 win
+125 win
+125 lose

So betting $100 would net you $50 profit going 50%.....



So we go back to the NE/Ten and SF/GB games, you think one underdog wins but not sure which one......

+225 lose
+225 win

So betting $100 would net you $125 profit going 50%.....

[NYSportsGuy210]

Slow down there K13. I think most of us on this board still need to understand what constitutes Reverse Line Movement before we even start knocking or defending it.

In my opinion by seeing most of these posts a lot of you can't even identify what games qialify as RLM games to begin with.

So lets try and figure that out first. According to what I read these are games where one team has 65% or more of the publics money on their side. So right away all 60%-40% or 55%-45% games we do not have to follow the line movement. Usually you'll get between three to six games a week that meet this initial criteria.

Next, we see where the lines spreads move the opposite direction in favor of those underdog teams and the lne must move AT LEAST ONE WHOLE point in favor of the dog team for it to qualify as RLM!!

[NYSportsGuy210]

Those 5 games showed this according to my sources.

If you have a better way of explaining how to track line movement the official way K13 or anyone else...(including stating websites where we can see this stuff ourselves)...feel free to input it in this thread.

This seems to be the 2nd problem we are encountering in this thread.

[BrigadierPudding]

Tracking from open to close isn't really the best way to do this. You should be tracking from when limits go full to close.

[bobbyk1133]

Those 5 games showed this according to my sources.

Cherry-picking "sources" to make it seem like your theory worked in Week 1 is the biggest red flag of this entire topic. Almost every book across the board had the Eagles, Lions, and Bucs not qualifying for your parameters.

It's no coincidence you've ignored this throughout the discussion either.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out where sharp money is each week. RLM is likely the last method I'd use to aid my picks - especially given how irrelevant public money is in the market (and openers).

[Full Time Hobo]

Where are you getting your numbers?

And the filters used for RLM are different depending who you talk to...

[LT Profits]

If you want to hit 50% of your plays stick with RLM!

Closer to 55% PRE-move, yet guys make the mistake of waiting until the line has moved the most and then going in at the worst number.

[LT Profits]

Confirmation bias? Not sure where you're getting these numbers from. Eagles closed -9, Lions -8.5, and Panthers -3. Also take openers at -9 or -1 with a grain of salt given how much books avoid the teaser window.

In reality, it's all moot since this strategy is poorly outdated. Things like RLM, public "money", 'unders' and underdogs are a thing of the past. It's an entirely new marketplace if you've been paying attention the last few years.

It's hard to let go of yesteryear I know. Light a candle and join 2012.

Actually there is no reason for RLM not to work with lines moving almost exclusively on sharp money these days. But timing is still everything.

[bobbyk1133]

Actually there is no reason for RLM not to work with lines moving almost exclusively on sharp money these days. But timing is still everything.

This is assuming following sharp money (and also getting good numbers) is profitable enough to follow it blind. I think the days of sharp vs public is becoming more blurred than ever as the entire market is becoming more sophisticated on a yearly basis. Money still dominates the lines as you eluded to, but at this point in time contarian betting is dead. The public just don't matter anymore and betting favorites is just as "sharp" as betting dogs. It's all situational on a week to week basis.

I still maintain that capping your own games to identify early value is the best approach. This way, the vast majority of the time you'll be on the right side of the money and long before the public even gets involved. By the time the weekend rolls around the lines are pretty much efficient - including dogs and favs. I don't see how "RLM" factors in whatsoever...

[bobbyk1133]

Just to add to this...take the NE/TEN game for an example.

Someone explain to me why money came in on the Titans? Is it ever "sharp" to fade the Patriots...especially with a young QB who showed nothing in the preseason to earn the starting job? I usually avoid New England like the plague simply because the whole world knows their lines are shaded and they STILL cover more times than not. They are literally "spread-proof". I'd never in a million years follow blind "RLM" against them.

[LT Profits]

Just to add to this...take the NE/TEN game for an example.

Someone explain to me why money came in on the Titans? Is it ever "sharp" to fade the Patriots...especially with a young QB who showed nothing in the preseason to earn the starting job? I usually avoid New England like the plague simply because the whole world knows their lines are shaded and they STILL cover more times than not. They are literally "spread-proof". I'd never in a million years follow blind "RLM" against them.

Well the sharps no doubt bet Tennessee and lost. It happens. I assume they expected Pats offensive line issues to continue into regular season. But you are right about capping games first, and THEN looking at line moves.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Where are you getting your numbers?

And the filters used for RLM are different depending who you talk to...

This is the problem right here.....bingo

Everyone has different filters to qualify what RLM is in their minds and there seems to be no standard to hold all games too on the same level. This is a major flaw that needs to be corrected.

[ZetaPsi808]

This is the problem right here.....bingo

Everyone has different filters to qualify what RLM is in their minds and there seems to be no standard to hold all games too on the same level. This is a major flaw that needs to be corrected.

nothing needs correction

just make your own judgement and win

[NYSportsGuy210]

nothing needs correction

just make your own judgement and win

Shut up Zeta. This isn't a post about drunk macking 18 year old broads with IQ's the size of your pecker.

We talking betting here guy.

[ZetaPsi808]

Shut up Zeta. This isn't a post about drunk macking 18 year old broads with IQ's the size of your pecker.

We talking betting here guy.

i will run circles around you in sports betting son

the guy who is asking questions about RLM is questioning my sports betting acumen

[Timmay]

It should be pretty simple. You got it. If you know the public will pounce on a line and then it moves in favor for the public that's a RLM.

Another example..... Some bad team gets worse odds when you know they should be getting better odds by game time. You know the line should move and it doesn't. I start thinking there must be an injury, or some big bettor. It all really depends. Do your research and do what feels right.

Sometimes if it looks too good, it could be, but I'm now going to approach at value and probably get worked by getting drawn in to sucker bets

[BALISTIK]

Shut up Zeta. This isn't a post about drunk macking 18 year old broads with IQ's the size of your pecker.

We talking betting here guy.

did you see my post earlier? can you tell me where you are getting your percentages from? thanks.

[DarkNite]

From two sites, one is bet tracker, and another one is sportbook spy or pregame, the opening lines are different, and do not know for sure which one is real.
From pregame: TB v NYG -8.5 [open], [current -7.5 ] with 65% on NYG and 24653 bets. This should be RLM, but bet tracker with NYG -9[open], [current -9].
So I do not know which one is real.

[LT Profits]

From two sites, one is bet tracker, and another one is sportbook spy or pregame, the opening lines are different, and do not know for sure which one is real.
From pregame: TB v NYG -8.5 [open], [current -7.5 ] with 65% on NYG and 24653 bets. This should be RLM, but bet tracker with NYG -9[open], [current -9].
So I do not know which one is real.

Giants opened -9 +106 and are now -9 +115, which is REALLY -7.5. I think BetTracker is powered by Sports Insights, so that is the better one to use.

[No coincidences]

The only thing that's clear in this thread is that most posters don't know what true RLM is.

Hint: there aren't going to be 5-7 actual RLM picks in Week 1 alone.

[ZetaPsi808]

did you see my post earlier? can you tell me where you are getting your percentages from? thanks.

sportsoptions lineservice for $99 a month

[NYSportsGuy210]

Okay so week 2 is here. Can anyone tell me or inform others on this post which games showed RLM for this week?

So far we have a vote for TB Bucs-Giants.

[ChalkyDog]

Saints @ Carolina

This game is sketch.

I marked down something for Baltimore/Philly.

[SteelRain]

bucs, panthers, eagles, dolphins, jaguars, seahawks and lions

are all public fades (80%+ of the public is on the other side) but their lines have barely moved or are in favour of the dogs

[NYSportsGuy210]

Bucs and Jaguars stick out to me as covers.

[NYSportsGuy210]

I just spoke to a source to get RLM for week 2.

He said Eagles vs. Ravens opened with the public at 85% betting Baltimore vs. 15% betting Philadelphia. The spread opened at Eagles (-1) and instead of moving towards pick'em or Ravens (-1) the line has moved to Eagles (-2.5).

The play in this case would be Eagles (-2.5).


He also said the Giants vs. Bucs game that the Giants opened up (-9) and 70% of the bets came in on Big Blue vs. only 30% on Tampa Bay.....and the line moved down to Giants (-7) instead.

The play in this case would be Bucs (+7).



The Saints opened up as (-4.5) to cover vs. Carolina Panthers and 82% of the public is betting the Saints to cover vs. 18% betting the Panthers. Yet the line has dropped to Saints (-3) or (-2.5) at some books.

The play here looks to be Panthers (+3).


The line opened at (-3.5) in the Dallas Cowboys vs. Seahawks game (at Seattle) and 82% of the public bets Dallas to cover vs. only 18% for the Seahawks. The line has moved down to Dallas (-3) or even (-2.5) at some books.

The play here is Seattle (+3).



Let's see how these do for week 2......

[Spedizzo]

What about Patriots? Pretty sure I am seeing -13.5 and -13 lingering around.

Are Cardinals technically the play now? 84% of the public on the Patriots.

I am on Giants/Panthers/Eagles and I am liking the Cowboys despite the "RLM." In certain situations (Panthers/Eagles) I think the RLM is indicative of the result... I guess its all about guessing where/when it will hit.

84% on Patriots spread. (78% on Patriots ML - why the penetrate would anyone lay that amount of juice? In any case - Patriots win but don't cover?)

86% on Saints spread. (64% on Saints ML - Saints lose outright?)

85% on Giants spread. (52% on Giants ML - Giants win but don't cover?)

76% on Ravens spread. (94% on Ravens ML - Eagles cover & win?)

82% on Cowboys spread. (75% on Cowboys ML - Cowboys lose outright?)

I find it hard to believe all/most of those do not cover. The games in bold I believe win outright and cover the spread, with the Patriots winning outright and possibly covering the spread.

Good analysis? Bullshit? We will find out in a few hours.

[Spedizzo]

Just did a SHARP analysis.

[k13]

6-2 ats this week

13-9 ytd (59%)

par for the course

[bobbyk1133]

6-2 ats this week

13-9 ytd (59%)

par for the course

6-2??? Sharp $$ got toasted on NYJ, BUF, and JAX. That's just off the top of my head...

Rename this topic -->>> Confirmation Bias

[thechaoz]

Lol anyone calling themselves sharp betting jets against niners know nothing about football this year

[k13]

6-2??? Sharp $$ got toasted on NYJ, BUF, and JAX. That's just off the top of my head...

Rename this topic -->>> Confirmation Bias

This is a RLM thread not a "sharp" money thread.

Wins, Carolina, Miami, Minnesota, Chicago, Philadelphia, Cleveland.
Losses, Jacksonville, Buffalo.

Thanks.

[bobbyk1133]

This is a RLM thread not a "sharp" money thread.

Do you understand the logic behind RLM? How about the parameters?? Use the NYG/PHI game as an example without leaving 5 holes in your explanation.

The biggest 3 dichotomous games in Week 4 all went in favor of the public, yet we're supposed to believe contrarian betting is dominating?

Unbelievable.