Justin7 on Behind The Bets!

[Inkwell77]

Fukkin sharp statement here:

"You can't believe anything anyone tells you about gambling, at least when it comes to numbers unless you do the work yourself"

Guy tells it like it is. Many many guys are not doing enough work looking at the numbers! This game is not easy, when you look at the numbers you start to realize this!

to a guy who is a sharp, gives information, and not some blowhard who says vague statements that are worthless!

[GunShard]

There's a multiple ways to gamble. Experiment with all of them then see what works and what doesn't work.

[Duff85]

Will def listen to this episode. Was sick of listening to Millman talk to bullshit touts who didn't know shit from clay.

Those who want to listen to it:

http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=8290068

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Will def listen to this episode. Was sick of listening to Millman talk to bullshit touts who didn't know shit from clay.

Malinsky and Teddy Covers - those guys were brutal.

[dodger33]

One of my favorite podcasts...gonna go listen to it now

[Duff85]

Millman is such a square. Interview could have been better if he had a clue. Thanks for letting us know about it though Inkwell.

Be interesting to hear Justin7's take on the interview.

[hawley]

checking out now.

[Inkwell77]

j7 did a podcast with Gamblers book club where he told a good story about being banned from Caesars for continuously popping some college basketball total that was 10 points off, kept popping at all their various books and Caesars did not move the line. I always wondered if j7 tried to middle it, from this podcast I'm assuming that he bought at least some back


Someone was probably fired because of that incident, but obviously that person was not very good at their job or just made a rather costly mistake. I see absolutely nothing wrong with trying to take free money from such a huge corporate casino like Caesars that is hanging a line like that.

[dodger33]

J7 needs to learn how to laugh. Lighten up pal!

[GunShard]

Nice, I didn't know ESPN had sports gambling podcasts. Going to listen to them now.

[jjgold]

Guys lets compare Mathdotcomm accounts to Justins and I think you will see who the real king is here

Justin 7 is sharp but not in Mathy's league

[wantitall4moi]

Guys lets compare Mathdotcomm accounts to Justins and I think you will see who the real king is here

Justin 7 is sharp but not in Mathy's league

LOL both internet 'winners'. Perception isnt reality.

But I will agree with what the OP said. Dont believe any results or numbers unless you do it yourself. Thats why I built the biggest and probably best database around. Because all I heard for years and years was 'the 3 in the NFL is worth x amount to buy on and off from'. Well I looked at results against openers, closers, moves, and best available, and the price was not even close to being 'worth' any number ever thrown around. Also factoring in how rules changes and other things have taken place that the number of 3 point games has dropped DRAMATICALLY in the past 6 or 7 years it makes it even less.

But in the end past results and the 'numbers' dont mean too much when it comes to predicting future outcomes. All it can do it maybe possibly give you some insight into situational plays.

The whole thing about these math guys and 'market' guys is they need moves and extremes to justify what they call 'value'. Thing is guys betting into lines first who have an original opinion are going to be guys who make much more profit that guys following moves or looking to get ahead of steam and trying to beat guys to the punch.

Example. I dont post many plays but when I do they generally win. I also generally post plays that are 'anti steam'. Meaning I had an original opinion on a game but watched everyone else go against that opinion. So I just wait until it reaches its apex and then buy it. Most recent was Padres Yesterday. They opened +115. Generally if I was going to play that game on a 'money making' venture I would have hammered Pittsburgh at -125 and then looked to buy back and win no matter what. But because I am gambling now and not really churning and burning arbitrages or leads I simply waited out my 'strong' opinion and took SD one way for +145. They got to 150 in a few places but I can live with 145 where I got them. So it comes down to semantics. I could easilly say betting Pirates -125 for a ton, and then buying back Padres for 145 or whatever was the 'smartest' decision. You hammer a 20 cent arb and you make a locked in profit. But I can also say my 'opinion' outweighed that 'wasted' money and I picked the strongest side at the best odds. Which like I say is semantics. I have long said getting both sides for a locked in profits is the most efficient and fastest way to make money. Which it is. But if you have a good opinion and can actually pick more winners than losers then occasionally hitting these games one way works as well.

That's where followers have the disadvantage. Guys who bet Pirates early (in this example) supposedly got the 'strong' side at the best odds. But it was a loser. So even though these market and math guys think that their Pirates play at say -130 was a good play (considering they got to -155 at most places and -160 at a few) it was a loser. Thats why the MLB chews these guys and spits them out. Because the moves are extreme and brutal. Guys sit there and watch a screen all day but really only need to watch it right when lines first come out and about 5 minutes before first pitch. But they try and get all technical and fancy and generally not only dont have the winning side they also dont get the best odds. So a double mistake.

But its all semantics. A lot of people know 'what' to do and 'how' to do it. Just not many do it correctly.

[rm18]

If you knew the line was going to move you bet Pirates -125 and then just come back with more on the Padres late, but moves are tough to anticipate especially on those type of bets where the line is going the wrong way.

[jjgold]

LOL both internet 'winners'. Perception isnt reality.

But I will agree with what the OP said. Dont believe any results or numbers unless you do it yourself. Thats why I built the biggest and probably best database around. Because all I heard for years and years was 'the 3 in the NFL is worth x amount to buy on and off from'. Well I looked at results against openers, closers, moves, and best available, and the price was not even close to being 'worth' any number ever thrown around. Also factoring in how rules changes and other things have taken place that the number of 3 point games has dropped DRAMATICALLY in the past 6 or 7 years it makes it even less.

But in the end past results and the 'numbers' dont mean too much when it comes to predicting future outcomes. All it can do it maybe possibly give you some insight into situational plays.

The whole thing about these math guys and 'market' guys is they need moves and extremes to justify what they call 'value'. Thing is guys betting into lines first who have an original opinion are going to be guys who make much more profit that guys following moves or looking to get ahead of steam and trying to beat guys to the punch.

Example. I dont post many plays but when I do they generally win. I also generally post plays that are 'anti steam'. Meaning I had an original opinion on a game but watched everyone else go against that opinion. So I just wait until it reaches its apex and then buy it. Most recent was Padres Yesterday. They opened +115. Generally if I was going to play that game on a 'money making' venture I would have hammered Pittsburgh at -125 and then looked to buy back and win no matter what. But because I am gambling now and not really churning and burning arbitrages or leads I simply waited out my 'strong' opinion and took SD one way for +145. They got to 150 in a few places but I can live with 145 where I got them. So it comes down to semantics. I could easilly say betting Pirates -125 for a ton, and then buying back Padres for 145 or whatever was the 'smartest' decision. You hammer a 20 cent arb and you make a locked in profit. But I can also say my 'opinion' outweighed that 'wasted' money and I picked the strongest side at the best odds. Which like I say is semantics. I have long said getting both sides for a locked in profits is the most efficient and fastest way to make money. Which it is. But if you have a good opinion and can actually pick more winners than losers then occasionally hitting these games one way works as well.

That's where followers have the disadvantage. Guys who bet Pirates early (in this example) supposedly got the 'strong' side at the best odds. But it was a loser. So even though these market and math guys think that their Pirates play at say -130 was a good play (considering they got to -155 at most places and -160 at a few) it was a loser. Thats why the MLB chews these guys and spits them out. Because the moves are extreme and brutal. Guys sit there and watch a screen all day but really only need to watch it right when lines first come out and about 5 minutes before first pitch. But they try and get all technical and fancy and generally not only dont have the winning side they also dont get the best odds. So a double mistake.

But its all semantics. A lot of people know 'what' to do and 'how' to do it. Just not many do it correctly.

Wanty this mathdotcomm guy sure talks a good game though, I have been buying into lately. He sure sounds convincing although you seem to see right through these guys. I think also you have been around a lot longer than him and much more experienced.

[wantitall4moi]

Wanty this mathdotcomm guy sure talks a good game though, I have been buying into lately. He sure sounds convincing although you seem to see right through these guys. I think also you have been around a lot longer than him and much more experienced.

If I remember this guy showed up out of the blue pretending to be some sort of tout that stopped touting or wanted to be a tout but couldnt make it. Had tee shirts made up and hats and all kinds of other nonsense. Then he started spamming 'think tank' with the usual drivel just like most of the tools in there. Then he came into PT and started passing himself off as what he is now, some sort of expert.

While I dont post plays much now I used to and I have been around for about 15 years on the forums, so I have a track record.

But most of these so called sharp guys come in spewing math and market and this and that and the secret to winning but none of them really show any sort of ability or proof beyond the same theoretical bullshit people have been recycling and reinventing for over a decade.

I dont even care about picking winners or losers or posting plays. I just want to see a fundamental ability to get on the 'right' side with the best price more often than not. Actually utilize some of the crap these guys talk about.

Like Mike Tyson said everyone has a plan until they get hit. Guys can talk theory and best approach all they want but until they can actually put it into a real world scenario and make money from it it is just so much bullshit.

[wantitall4moi]

If you knew the line was going to move you bet Pirates -125 and then just come back with more on the Padres late, but moves are tough to anticipate especially on those type of bets where the line is going the wrong way.

I made a living doing it for over 10 years. With the right outs you can basically bet risk free with some experience. I do it for fun now so I gamble and bet a lot more one way games these days but it hasnt changed much, if anything it is more volatile as guys really try to play it like the stock market these days so lines move a lot more back and forth and the price differences can be extreme.

[Chi_archie]

sending Millman an email regarding Mathy and Fishhead right now

[jjgold]

If I remember this guy showed up out of the blue pretending to be some sort of tout that stopped touting or wanted to be a tout but couldnt make it. Had tee shirts made up and hats and all kinds of other nonsense. Then he started spamming 'think tank' with the usual drivel just like most of the tools in there. Then he came into PT and started passing himself off as what he is now, some sort of expert.

While I dont post plays much now I used to and I have been around for about 15 years on the forums, so I have a track record.

But most of these so called sharp guys come in spewing math and market and this and that and the secret to winning but none of them really show any sort of ability or proof beyond the same theoretical bullshit people have been recycling and reinventing for over a decade.

I dont even care about picking winners or losers or posting plays. I just want to see a fundamental ability to get on the 'right' side with the best price more often than not. Actually utilize some of the crap these guys talk about.

Like Mike Tyson said everyone has a plan until they get hit. Guys can talk theory and best approach all they want but until they can actually put it into a real world scenario and make money from it it is just so much bullshit.

Mathdotcom claims to have an unbeatable math model?? Is it possible??

[AribaAriba]

i had an incredible run for the past 2 months and built a roll upto 35k, does that make me sharp? i spot plays btw

[jjgold]

Ariba you could be sharp

What books you winning at?

[Kindred]

LOL both internet 'winners'. Perception isnt reality.

But I will agree with what the OP said. Dont believe any results or numbers unless you do it yourself. Thats why I built the biggest and probably best database around. Because all I heard for years and years was 'the 3 in the NFL is worth x amount to buy on and off from'. Well I looked at results against openers, closers, moves, and best available, and the price was not even close to being 'worth' any number ever thrown around. Also factoring in how rules changes and other things have taken place that the number of 3 point games has dropped DRAMATICALLY in the past 6 or 7 years it makes it even less.

But in the end past results and the 'numbers' dont mean too much when it comes to predicting future outcomes. All it can do it maybe possibly give you some insight into situational plays.

The whole thing about these math guys and 'market' guys is they need moves and extremes to justify what they call 'value'. Thing is guys betting into lines first who have an original opinion are going to be guys who make much more profit that guys following moves or looking to get ahead of steam and trying to beat guys to the punch.

Example. I dont post many plays but when I do they generally win. I also generally post plays that are 'anti steam'. Meaning I had an original opinion on a game but watched everyone else go against that opinion. So I just wait until it reaches its apex and then buy it. Most recent was Padres Yesterday. They opened +115. Generally if I was going to play that game on a 'money making' venture I would have hammered Pittsburgh at -125 and then looked to buy back and win no matter what. But because I am gambling now and not really churning and burning arbitrages or leads I simply waited out my 'strong' opinion and took SD one way for +145. They got to 150 in a few places but I can live with 145 where I got them. So it comes down to semantics. I could easilly say betting Pirates -125 for a ton, and then buying back Padres for 145 or whatever was the 'smartest' decision. You hammer a 20 cent arb and you make a locked in profit. But I can also say my 'opinion' outweighed that 'wasted' money and I picked the strongest side at the best odds. Which like I say is semantics. I have long said getting both sides for a locked in profits is the most efficient and fastest way to make money. Which it is. But if you have a good opinion and can actually pick more winners than losers then occasionally hitting these games one way works as well.

That's where followers have the disadvantage. Guys who bet Pirates early (in this example) supposedly got the 'strong' side at the best odds. But it was a loser. So even though these market and math guys think that their Pirates play at say -130 was a good play (considering they got to -155 at most places and -160 at a few) it was a loser. Thats why the MLB chews these guys and spits them out. Because the moves are extreme and brutal. Guys sit there and watch a screen all day but really only need to watch it right when lines first come out and about 5 minutes before first pitch. But they try and get all technical and fancy and generally not only dont have the winning side they also dont get the best odds. So a double mistake.

But its all semantics. A lot of people know 'what' to do and 'how' to do it. Just not many do it correctly.

stick to reviewing escorts ya phucking liar square

[Kindred]

If I remember this guy showed up out of the blue pretending to be some sort of tout that stopped touting or wanted to be a tout but couldnt make it. Had tee shirts made up and hats and all kinds of other nonsense. Then he started spamming 'think tank' with the usual drivel just like most of the tools in there. Then he came into PT and started passing himself off as what he is now, some sort of expert.

While I dont post plays much now I used to and I have been around for about 15 years on the forums, so I have a track record.

But most of these so called sharp guys come in spewing math and market and this and that and the secret to winning but none of them really show any sort of ability or proof beyond the same theoretical bullshit people have been recycling and reinventing for over a decade.

I dont even care about picking winners or losers or posting plays. I just want to see a fundamental ability to get on the 'right' side with the best price more often than not. Actually utilize some of the crap these guys talk about.

Like Mike Tyson said everyone has a plan until they get hit. Guys can talk theory and best approach all they want but until they can actually put it into a real world scenario and make money from it it is just so much bullshit.

what forums were u posting on in 97

[BigDaddy]

i suggest buying Justin's book

it's well worth it

[jjgold]

I am sure his book is good and lots of good pointers

I will say no more though

[BigDaddy]

what forums were u posting on in 97

maybe bettorsworld?

[CanuckG]

Wanty is just another wannabe just like the rest of them.

[jjgold]

Wanty is just another wannabe just like the rest of them.

Wanty is sharp Canuck..read his posts

15 year posting veteran, for crying out loud your 17 man and still have a lot to learn

[Inkwell77]

lol wantitall is a joke

this guy just claimed he "built the biggest and probably best database around," anyone who would make such an absurd statements is far from sharp

[CanuckG]

. I dont post many plays but when I do they generally win.

[wantitall4moi]

well I wouldnt expect much from kids on here. Thats why they were all drinking in Vegas or at home playing with their peckers because they couldnt afford to do anything else because they dont have a pot to piss in.

There were more forums around in the mid 90s than there are now. But since most of you guys were just a jerk stain on your fathers pillow case back then I doubt you would know that.

As far as my database(s). I would say they are. I certainly havent seen anyone that can put up stuff or contradict stuff I post about games in it. Because if guys had it they would use it at least to try and prove someone wrong.

But if you have access to games going back to 1996 in some sports 2000 in all major ones, with opening odds, moves, and results and have it searchable with about 20 different parameters then you are off to a good start. I didnt do it myself, I had a couple college kids (back then anyway) do it. It took two of them because it took that long to put together and one of them graduated and got a life before it was all finished. Still isnt totally done, but close enough.

Math models... everyone claims to have one, I have a couple, but they really dont do much. Because they can never take into account everything. Some guys run multiple simulations as well, they can give a result that seems more likely but I havent sen any of those being fool proof either.

As I have said before if it was as easy as creating a program or a simulator then every math geek in the world would have broken Vegas 50 times over because math is math and it is all the same. Plug a set of numbers into an equation you all get the same answer. But everyone thinks they have a better equation. Which they dont. Analytic guys lack a lot of things you need for gambling, which they claim is their biggest asset.

In the end people write books about gambling for one reason, to make money. It surely isnt to help make people better. They get a reputation they get a publisher and then they pen a bunch of jibberish that people swear is gospel. There are a million how to books and manuals that show you how to build something or do something or make something. But you have to understand it to actually be good at it. Give 50 guys a Betty Crocker cookbook and have them make 20 dishes, I guarantee most of those 1000 dishes wont taste very good, but with someone that actually knows how to cook all 20 of theirs will taste good. Probably not the greatest analogy but whatever. And that is something as 'simple' as cooking. Nothing nearly as convoluted as gambling.

[jjgold]

I keep nominating this guys posts

He is that good

Nobody is going to tell you how to make money for real

Book Writers are touts thats all

[CanuckG]

I keep nominating this guys posts

He is that good

Nobody is going to tell you how to make money for real

Book Writers are touts thats all

Really we didnt know this before????

[mathdotcom]

LOL both internet 'winners'. Perception isnt reality. Really? It sure is reality when it hits my bank account.

But I will agree with what the OP said. Dont believe any results or numbers unless you do it yourself. Thats why I built the biggest and probably best database around. lol Because all I heard for years and years was 'the 3 in the NFL is worth x amount to buy on and off from'. Well I looked at results against openers, closers, moves, and best available, and the price was not even close to being 'worth' any number ever thrown around. you did it wrong Also factoring in how rules changes and other things have taken place that the number of 3 point games has dropped DRAMATICALLY in the past 6 or 7 years it makes it even less.

But in the end past results and the 'numbers' dont mean too much when it comes to predicting future outcomes. So you'd take the Jaguars moneyline at -110 visiting the Packers? Last season "don't mean too much" no? All it can do it maybe possibly give you some insight into situational plays.

The whole thing about these math guys and 'market' guys is they need moves and extremes to justify what they call 'value'. No... they look at stale lines and like the value and the move results from that. Thing is guys betting into lines first who have an original opinion are going to be guys who make much more profit that guys following moves or looking to get ahead of steam and trying to beat guys to the punch. Correct. The first group are known as steam chasers not 'math' or 'market' guys. There's a difference.

All this red must remind you on grade school

[mathdotcom]

Math models... everyone claims to have one, I have a couple, but they really dont do much.

Quote of the year !!!

[jjgold]