College Football Week 1: Post your Strongest play for week 1

[frogsrangers]

Mine is Colorado -5 against Colorado State

Colorado State isn't good, and haven't been since 2008. And while they got a new coaching staff that looks promising, they have no foundation yet, new QB and new players all over. Colorado isn't much better, but at least they have some foundation after last season going into this season. I don't think Colorado State will be able to hang for 4 quarters, having to learn its new ways, plays and schemes on the fly. Plus its a neutral site game and Colorado is simply the better team at this point. I think Colorado wins by a margin of at least 14.

[minet123]

like the play but reminded of a saying
Bet on bad teams and bad things happen

[rm18]

Ohio +6 against the Sandusky's, 24-13 Ohio outright

[LT Profits]

I was lucky enough to get Ohio +7.5. But based on current lines, Nevada +11

[paranoyd androyd]

la tech +8

[bookinwinners]

Leaning vandy +7

[Caser1356]

Ok going to come out of no where with these probably... I think toledo, BG both cover..
MSU beat Boise by 15+
Vandy and SC is going to be a close game, and with everyone probably including SC giving Vandy any respect for their passing game will be surpised. It will not be ez for SC, if they dont lose.
Eastern Mich. beats Ball St. good money line play
Akron Covers vs Cent. Fl
Ohio Beats PSU
Western Mich. Covers vs iLLi
L. Tech covers the 7.5
UMASS +25 vs Conn
Wash St covers however one of the better teases
Minn -9
Texas San Ant.+6.5
Tenn-4
Standford -25.5
Navy covers
West Virgina wins, but i dont think they cover by 2 pts or something crazi like that...Gotta protect ur starters here..
Syracuse beats NW
Maimi(OH) comes to compete and steps up... loses by 2 TDs
Iowa St beat Tulsa
southern miss covers vs neb
Maimi FL wins
Iowa beat N. iLLi by 2 Tds
Colarado beats Col. St. by 10
Buffalo covers...but loses by 34
Wyomin covers vs Texas, still loses by 20
Clemson covers vs Auburn
USC, doesnt cover.. Hawii scores once in the 4th Quarter.. USC runs the ball to kill clock
Mich ( I am hoping for an upset ) but i think Mich loses but covers
Tease Rutgers, then they cover lol
UAB wins
Ark ST covers
GT covers vs VT ( dont feel to confident bout that play)... stay away, its like the Vandy game

[tobydicesare]

I agree with minet123....dont bet on the "bad" teams...stick with your top 35 (top 25 usually), but allowing a little wiggle room, b/c even the best sometimes falter a little bit past the top 25....these teams are usually more consistent in their performances...at least in my experience.

Thanks

[colts]

S. Carolina -7

[Louisvillekid1]

W mich +9.5

[marcojuiceman]

Come on guys the best play will be +36 1/2 Texas State vs. Houston
ezzzzz money
Houston head coach went to Texas AM and Keenum goes the the NFL

[GunShard]

Come on guys the best play will be +36 1/2 Texas State vs. Houston
ezzzzz money
Houston head coach went to Texas AM and Keenum goes the the NFL

I like that bet.

[nvrlose37]

Already said but LA tech +7.5 should be it.

Also BYU -13.5 is my second, not sure why everyone is on Leach and Wash St already, they haven't even played a game.

[PAULYPOKER]

I was gonna say Ohio but it seems to be a popular choice for all the wrong reasons now that I think about it............

[CharlestonCock]

South Carolina -6.5

[diveoregon]

The deeper I look the more I'm liking UCF. 23' is quite a bit to cover, but they're returning nearly all of a defense that was pretty good last year, and the offense that was merely ok will get a boost with the addition of Mizzou transfer QB Tyler Gabbert and Miami transfer RB Storm Johnson.
Akron on the other hand was 1-11 a year ago, and with no recruits in the top100, this program isn't going anywhere overnight.

[marcojuiceman]

The deeper I look the more I'm liking UCF. 23' is quite a bit to cover, but they're returning nearly all of a defense that was pretty good last year, and the offense that was merely ok will get a boost with the addition of Mizzou transfer QB Tyler Gabbert and Miami transfer RB Storm Johnson.
Akron on the other hand was 1-11 a year ago, and with no recruits in the top100, this program isn't going anywhere overnight.

I wouldnt take it (opinion) UCF have lost 3 straight when playing at Akron .. If you want to talk about History.. it has away of repeating itself..
UFC will be win but I dont know about covering

[diveoregon]

These two teams haven't played since 2004, when UCF was a MAC school. Two completely different programs now, I can't see the past having any bearing on where these programs are now.

[ConferenceChalk]

Washington-14.5

[ConferenceChalk]

I agree with minet123....dont bet on the "bad" teams...stick with your top 35 (top 25 usually), but allowing a little wiggle room, b/c even the best sometimes falter a little bit past the top 25....these teams are usually more consistent in their performances...at least in my experience.

Thanks

very wise. a man betting on colorado will soon go broke

[diveoregon]

I really like Washington as well. A very underhyped team this year with the loss of Polk, but I expect good things out of this squad. This team will score loads of points, and only get better on defense this year. SDSU lost QB(whom they replaced with Ryan Katz that was worthless at Oregon St), RB, and half their defense(which they recruited no great replacements). Washington runs this up!

[Elysee26]

F-L-O-R-I-D-A S-T-A-T-E!!! Florida State, Florida State, Florida State Yeeeaaahhhh!!! Doesn't matter what the number is Jimbo and company are going to kick as*. Coming in at second is Boomer Sooner. Can't wait to get this season underway!!!!

[thetrinity]

honestly this week 1 is super tough way tougher then i had imagined. san jose st +25.5 at stanford stands out only because stanford is so depleted.

[frogsrangers]

I agree with minet123....dont bet on the "bad" teams...stick with your top 35 (top 25 usually), but allowing a little wiggle room, b/c even the best sometimes falter a little bit past the top 25....these teams are usually more consistent in their performances...at least in my experience.

Thanks

Dumb line of thinking

All of the public are all over the Top 25 games and the big name teams

The real values can be found in the smaller schools in the no name conferences.

[thetrinity]

i agree with frogs the whole board should be in play every week.

[frogsrangers]

Starting to freak out about South Alabama... thought UT San Antonio was having their first season this year, but turns out they played last year too... including losing to South Alabama in overtime.

Knew South Alabama -6.5 was too good to be true, thought it was a steal since I thought it was UTSA's first ever game. I was wrong.

But, the experts seem to think that South Alabama will win, they are the favorites after all, and are at home... but I am sweating bullets here since not only do I have a play on South Alabama -6.5, but I have them in numerous parlays and teasers as well.

It's what I get for not doing my research. Hoping they can bail me out

[Nathorp4]

I like eastern to win thur night. Doing 2 game teaser Carolina and utsa

[frogsrangers]

i agree with frogs the whole board should be in play every week.

If anything the Top 25 games and big name teams should mean that the value is on the underdog, since Joe Q. Public will shift the line in favor of the favorite or bigger name team.

[diveoregon]

I wouldn't go anywhere near SanJose St. even with 25' points. Did I actually read Stanford is so depleted?

Lets start with SJSU and just how depleted they are before going into what is left at Stanford, and how well they reloaded. SJSU was sub .500 last year and lost over half of it's starters, on both offense and defense, including their QB and RB. They bring to the field just 1 player with a scouting position rating inside the top100, and average 285lbs in their interior DL, just 260lbs as a complete line.
Now lets move on to the depleted Stanford team that did lose Luck, whom is being replaced by Josh Nunes and backed up by Nottingham, both who come in with a scout rating inside the top20 at QB. Taylor does return as a senior at RB to build on the 1300 yds he put up a year ago. They do lose to greats on the OL, but will replace them with 3 of the top10 OL recruits in the country. These guys are HUGE, and will avg. 35+ lb advantage at the line. Overall they add 7 scouted top10 recruits by position, and another ten in the top100. This team is going to manhandle their mid-major competition at home on week 1.
Will they cover? Probably. Am I sure? No Point is, this thread was strong plays for week 1, and I wouldn't touch this game!

[diveoregon]

If anything the Top 25 games and big name teams should mean that the value is on the underdog, since Joe Q. Public will shift the line in favor of the favorite or bigger name team.

I am always cautious with this logic in the early season. I understand public moves lines, and allows you percieved underdog values, however these are linear figures. I suggest considering converging/diverging sequence considerations to look at more complex team potential senarios. Run regression algorithms to determine your significant variables(in relation to ATS wins). You should find that there is higher potential for top tier teams to cover extra points on top of spread than for mid-major schools to even score points.

I do complex math for a living, to try and explain this without numbers try to consider:
During the first few weeks of college ball you get several matchups of top25 teams vs mid-major schools. Top tier programs recruit bigger, faster, stronger, more athletic players. Even they're depth generally has more talent than starters on many mid-major teams. Lines for these games are often stat generated, and they then try to shift these stats to consider the opponents each team played in generating these numbers. The lines for these games are ultimately a semi-educated guess by bookmakers. At this point you are either betting on your top tier program scoring above this adjusted average, or your mid-major scoring against this adjusted average. The overall potential to score is higher for the top tier program than their inferior opponents.

Something to consider looking at.

[diveoregon]

Side note: Last year Stanford won this same week 1 matchup 57-3.

[vyomguy]

oregon -35.5

[frogsrangers]

oregon -35.5

I toyed around with this one before settling on NO PLAY, and here is why:

Arkansas State was the best Sun Belt team last year, and get a lot of key pieces back, though they have a new staff.

Oregon, meanwhile, will continue their pace oriented offense, but with new personel, so unless they light up the scoreboard, it will be a tough cover, because Arkansas State will get their points too

I was leaning toward Oregon -35.5, but its a lot to ask for new personel in an offense to accomplish, especially because Arkansas State will score some points as well. I only see a cover here if Oregon scores in the 60s.

[PAULYPOKER]

Thread says

College Football Week 1: Post your Strongest play for week 1


Not post a play so I can critique the fukk outta it.......................

[diveoregon]

I do think Oregon will cover. I have writeups on this in a couple threads, "gamecocks/tide/ducks" and "heavy wk 1 power..". Keep in mind I have only advised this as an information source, as I am biased towards Oregon. That said, I follow Oregon football very closey. Hopefully you find the info useful, and can use it to aid your judgement.