College Football Week 1: Post your Strongest play for week 1

frogsrangers · 08-23-12, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by diveoregon

I do think Oregon will cover. I have writeups on this in a couple threads, "gamecocks/tide/ducks" and "heavy wk 1 power..". Keep in mind I have only advised this as an information source, as I am biased towards Oregon. That said, I follow Oregon football very closey. Hopefully you find the info useful, and can use it to aid your judgement.

Oregon -35.5 was my lean, but decided against it last night at the betting window, though I am still open to it

I think Arkansas State will score at least 14, which means Oregon would have to score 50+ to cover, which means Arkansas State getting blown out badly, and I am not sure if Arkansas State is THAT BAD to get destroyed, but you never know.

diveoregon · 08-23-12, 04:50 PM

Haha. Don't get your feelings hurt, most of the banter that goes on here is the only thing making this forum useful. Gets people doing their research and posting relevant facts and stats they find. Thus allowing others to take in stats and writeups they may have not considered. It's nothing personal, just trying to flood info and ideas out there. I encourage everyone to do the same. Share your ideas, but more importantly, people will only find it useful if you can justify it in some way.

Dux90 · 08-23-12, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by frogsrangers

Dumb line of thinking

All of the public are all over the Top 25 games and the big name teams

The real values can be found in the smaller schools in the no name conferences.

completley right the small name schools is where you can find the real value in the lines

frogsrangers · 08-23-12, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by Dux90

completley right the small name schools is where you can find the real value in the lines

Which is why Week 1 is profitable, since all the games are big school vs. small school, so its easy to pick up the small schools not getting enough credit

But even more so in college basketball, made a lot of money last year off the smaller conferences

diveoregon · 08-23-12, 05:54 PM

I agree, there is loads of money to be made in mid-major conferences. Especially with the regressions I was discussing earlier. This is especially true when they begin their conference schedules, as top tier players are less concentrated, and stand out more against their mid-major peers.
I tread lightly when these teams are playing top25 schools. Here's a quick look at what happened last season when ranked schools faced unranked mid-major opponents:
Top 10: 5-2 ATS
Top 25: 10-9 ATS

Not the greatest of returns had you been taking week 1 mid-major dogs. I'm just saying tread lightly when playing these school the first 3 weeks.

Koldazzice · 08-23-12, 06:20 PM

Nebraska -19.5 - I played this at -17 a couple weeks ago. Seems like ras released it as im told as a play and it moved to 19.5.

I can see Nebraska having the line covered at the half and cruising to a easy cover.

jakeloftin2186 · 08-23-12, 06:34 PM

whatever you do do not bet this i graduated from texas state last decemeber and that team was awful in D2 last year

frogsrangers · 08-23-12, 06:36 PM

Originally posted by jakeloftin2186

whatever you do do not bet this i graduated from texas state last decemeber and that team was awful in D2 last year

We played Texas State in 2009, we thought we were going to kill them, but got too careless and they pulled within 35-21 and had the ball inside our 10 yard line with a chance to make it 35-28 but we intercepted them in the end zone and ended up winning 56-21

But that was 3 years ago.

Dutch · 08-23-12, 07:20 PM

Rutgers -20 / Tulane

dice · 08-23-12, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by diveoregon

I agree, there is loads of money to be made in mid-major conferences. Especially with the regressions I was discussing earlier. This is especially true when they begin their conference schedules, as top tier players are less concentrated, and stand out more against their mid-major peers.
I tread lightly when these teams are playing top25 schools. Here's a quick look at what happened last season when ranked schools faced unranked mid-major opponents:
Top 10: 5-2 ATS
Top 25: 10-9 ATS

Not the greatest of returns had you been taking week 1 mid-major dogs. I'm just saying tread lightly when playing these school the first 3 weeks.

According to Zcode, history repeats itself 86.5% of the time.

AdamL2424 · 08-23-12, 09:25 PM

Michigan state -7

thetruth1000 · 08-23-12, 09:56 PM

what about usc at -40 and lsu at -43, does anyone think they will cover these spreads?

frogsrangers · 08-23-12, 11:48 PM

Originally posted by thetruth1000

what about usc at -40 and lsu at -43, does anyone think they will cover these spreads?

No on both

PAULYPOKER · 08-24-12, 05:20 PM

Vanderbilt+7

Counterfeit Cash · 08-25-12, 12:57 AM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Vanderbilt+7

I'm actually on the other side of this one - I've been following this line like a creeper over the past few weeks, the u46 especially...I think that's an easy cover for the gamecocks on both the spread and the under. I know a ton is being said about Vandy being a "dark-horse" in the SEC this year but I still think the ol' ball coach's defense will do just enough to shut all that pre season hype up at least for another week.

Counterfeit Cash · 08-25-12, 01:03 AM

As for my strongest pick - as it stands it has to be Michigan St. (currently at -6 1/2) over Boise St.

Kellen Moore gone, next to no returning starters on defense, and only at 6 1/2? MSU could cover 10+ if they wanted to in this game I imagine.

brucesmall · 08-25-12, 01:17 AM

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-betting/1850494-pound-these-week-1-writeups-two-mismatches.html

Those are my two strongest picks!!!

reverend · 08-25-12, 01:26 AM

What is the thinking behind the UCLA/Rice game? I can't get a good read on that one...?

I want to lean UCLA with Rice losing their QB and RB and only returning 10 starters vs 16 starters for UCLA, and I want to think Mora will want to put on a good show in his first game, but something about playing at Rice has be hesitating...

Thoughts?

Counterfeit Cash · 08-25-12, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by reverend

What is the thinking behind the UCLA/Rice game? I can't get a good read on that one...?

I want to lean UCLA with Rice losing their QB and RB and only returning 10 starters vs 16 starters for UCLA, and I want to think Mora will want to put on a good show in his first game, but something about playing at Rice has be hesitating...

Thoughts?

IMO, 15 1/2 is about right and I tend to think that line may move a bit more still - you are right on about Mora wanting to make a great 1st impression so I think the spread is pretty solid. Rice was middle of the road with veteran starting QB & RB, I doubt they will actually improve losing them.

Only thing I'd be bothered with is UCLA's defense...but I still see them winning pretty handily. GL

kfranz31 · 08-25-12, 01:49 PM

i like minnesota -11 over unlv.......unlv sucks

Dan Kelly · 08-26-12, 12:22 AM

N Ill +10, they might win S/U

Iowas tank is empty, and the Total moved down 4 points in about 2 minutes this morning - never saw anything like it, you have to take the dog with a line move like that.

Dan Kelly · 08-26-12, 12:28 AM

I do like MichSt -6.5, BUT so does everyone else in the world and for all of the same reasons. That scares me more than a dirty nuke on Wall St.

tobydicesare · 08-26-12, 12:59 AM

UCF on the ML is the way to go if you can afford it....maybe 50k to win 2k, not a bad idea....as far as points go...Ill leave that alone...Moneyline is the only way to go.

El Nino · 08-26-12, 01:03 AM

Originally posted by kfranz31

i like minnesota -11 over unlv.......unlv sucks

Where did you get that horrible line? Minnesota -8.5 right now on Bookmaker. Gophers are awful as well and will be cellar dwellers. RAS likes them though.

Nathorp4 · 08-26-12, 01:22 AM

Minn has a great qb no one knows minn wins

Nathorp4 · 08-26-12, 01:24 AM

3 game teaser 10 pt. under 56 in Carolina vandy. Minnesota +1 eastern mich +14

noles79 · 08-26-12, 05:52 AM

sc -7 and oklahoma -30.5

rm18 · 08-26-12, 07:42 AM

Washington on the ML is the way to go maybe 110k to win 20k if you can afford it

Wrigley · 08-26-12, 08:35 AM

bama -12.5 vs michigan they will cover that in 1st qtr

hawk 5 · 08-26-12, 08:56 AM

Mich St. -6.5

KnowingNothing · 08-26-12, 09:01 AM

Love Louisiana Tech +7.5

Gotta go with experience in this case.

seb_boi_96 · 08-26-12, 09:09 AM

Vandy getting too much love!

South Carolina -7 over Vandy
why does everyone like Vandy so much against the gamecocks...
to me this game is close the first half but a blow out in the second half, vandy has nowhere near the talent of USC and the D-line of USC is gonna eat the Vandy o-line up. I see USC pulling away in the 3rd quarter and never looking back. USC wins easily by 14+ and Vandy gets brought back to reality. just my humble opinion.

Urbanwildlife · 08-26-12, 11:16 AM

Favorite play to begin the season: STANFORD for the reasons I posted in my thread starter. Good luck to you all, enjoy the strolls to the pay window!

PaperTrail07 · 08-26-12, 11:41 AM

just let it begin!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PAULYPOKER · 08-30-12, 09:29 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Vanderbilt+7