The Lillipad - frogsrangers 2012 College Football Picks & Resources

[frogsrangers]

Final Results for Week 2

0 Unit Plays: 16-14
1 Unit Plays: 3-3, -0.3 units
2 Unit Plays: 2-1, +1.8 units
3 Unit Plays: 2-0, +6.0 units
4 Unit Plays: 1-0, +4.0 units
5 Unit Plays: 1-3 -11.5 units

Total Week Record: 9-7 (56.2%)

Total Units in Week 2: 0.00
Year to Date Record

0 Unit Plays: 29-20
1 Unit Plays: 6-7, -1.7 units
2 Unit Plays: 4-2, +3.6 units
3 Unit Plays: 5-2-1, +8.4 units
4 Unit Plays: 3-1, +7.6 units
5 Unit Plays: 3-5 -12.5 units
Total Record ATS to Date: 21-17-1 (55.2%)

Total Units ATS to date: +5.4 units

Total Units To Date: -7.5 units

[frogsrangers]

Week 3 Plays

Hola amigos! It was an interesting Week 2. With all the wildness that happened, I think we are fortunate to have broke even. A lot of people could have easily been buried yesterday with a lot of dogs covering. And though we went 9-7, my 5 star plays once again did not return a profit. I will blame myself, breaking the rule "Don't pick a bad team to cover a spread of more than 13", which is what I did backing Bowling Green and Arkansas State. This week I promise I will not do so.


I just got back to the Wynn and made some early plays. Here are the writeups for those plays, I might add some more throughout the week as I monitor the line movement but I jumped on these lines because I think they will move away:


First up is the game in Evanston Illinois between Boston College and Northwestern. Looks like the odds makers and public did not learn their lesson from last week where Northwestern won outright by double digits as a dog. I was impressed. And this week they play a worse team than Vanderbilt, Boston College. I don't give a crap that BC beat Maine, they still had bad defense against Miami, who we learned was not a great team against Kansas State. And I think Boston College is worse than both Vanderbilt and Syracuse, two teams Northwestern has beaten. So I see the line opened at 4.5, so I hurried to the Wynn to get the line before it went up. But I get to the Wynn and see its at -4? So it actually dropped? I guess people are going to continue to doubt Northwestern, but not me, they will win by double digits again this week. Northwestern -4 is the first play of the week.


Slightly to the east, we have Eastern Michigan and Purdue. Though Eastern Michigan has improved and had a good year last year for their standards, I don't think they are at the level yet to compete here. After losing already in the state of Indiana by double digits to Ball State, I think they will get blown away by Purdue. Purdue struggled offensively against Notre Dame, but Eastern Michigan's defense will be the cure, Purdue wins big here so go with Purdue -23.


In Dallas, Texas A&M travels to SMU. SMU has not hosted a game this big in the June Jones era. They have gotten TCU a couple times in their house, but they play TCU every year so its guaranteed. This is the first huge non regular opponent SMU will play at home. And its a team that is limping in, Texas A&M. A&M may have left it all on the field against Florida, so I expect them to have a hangover here. A&M will not play with the emotion they did against SMU. But we have SMU also. Their defense got shredded against Baylor, and A&M is capable of doing the same here. SMU's offense showed some signs of good against Baylor, but turnovers killed them. Perhaps SMU shook off the rust and started a rhythm with Stephen F. Austin? I would imagine so, and playing at home will help, even if the crowd is going to be 50/50. I don't think SMU's defense will be able to stop A&M here, so SMU will have to force turnovers and keep up. In the end, I think A&M's hangover from Florida will linger around here just enough for SMU to cover, barely, but SMU's defense will keep them from winning. Play SMU +15 small.


In Pittsburgh, I don't think things could have gotten off to a worse start for Paul Chryst. Double digit losses to Youngstown State and Cincinnati are causes for concern. But I think when they host Virginia Tech on Saturday, things will start anew. They will put the past behind them, and have a fresh slate. It's like a new start for them. And I think Pitt will take advantage here. Virginia Tech did not impress me offensively against Georgia Tech, and they had the home crowd. Against Austin Peay, they were very vanilla. So I think Pitt will be fired up here, and put up an inspired effort against the Hokies. Virginia Tech does not have the offense to cover on the road, and Pitt will play a close one. Do not pay attention to Pitt's first two games here, I don't give a fuk that they lost to Youngstown State and Cincinnati, they will look like and be a different team in this game. Pittsburgh +11.5 is the play.


In Palo Alto, USC travels to Stanford. Stanford had a close call vs. San Jose State before blasting Duke. But USC is just a completely different team. Though USC struggled against Syracuse, they still put up the points. I don't think Stanford will be able to put up the points. Stanford is at home, but I don't think it will matter here, USC wants revenge from last year and will get it. No Andrew Luck this time, USC will win big, so USC -9.5 is the play.


In Columbus, California meets Ohio State at the shoe. Ohio State had a good win against an under rated UCF team, and has shown that they will have a strong ground game this year. And Cal has proven, if anything, their run defense is lacking. I think Ohio State will roll over Cal here, Cal does not have the defense, or offense to keep up with Ohio State. This will be a blowout, I consider UCF to be better than Cal, so Ohio State will put up at least 40 and send Cal back to Berkley without an FBS win. Ohio State -15.5 big


Though Missouri lost by 21 to Georgia, they still have the rest of the season to try and get rolling. And I think a paper tiger is coming into the Zoo by the name of Arizona State. Yeah, ASU beat Northern Arizona 63-6, and Illinois badly. But NAU and Illinois are bad teams, and ASU beat them at home. ASU is about to learn that playing on the road is not all that easy, especially against a Missouri team looking to right the ship after Saturday's disappointment. Don't get me wrong, Missouri will have a Georgia hangover in this game. Perhaps 1Q ASU or 1H ASU will be the play. But Missouri is the better team here, and they are at home. Eventually they will snap out of it and roll over Arizona State, with room to spare. This game will expose Arizona State, but do not put much stock into Missouri if they win, Arizona State is not a good team. Missouri -7.5 is the play.


Another bad line I noticed that I was able to get in time before it went up, is Louisville at home against North Carolina. North Carolina lost to a below average Wake Forest team, and now they have to go on the road again to play a team that is a rung or two or three above Wake Forest. Louisville will get up for this game and embarrass North Carolina. UNC is not a good team this year, and they still have ways to go. Louisville is the more complete team, they will have the better QB and defense, Though Louisville's defense looked bad against Kentucky in the 2nd half, they will play with bigger determination here, and will easily cover the 3 point spread. Louisville -3, get it now before it goes even higher, though I think Louisville wins by double digits.


Boise State lost their opener for the first time since 2005, but don't let that get you down on them, this is still a well coached team with talented players that is nearly impossible to beat at home. And Miami Ohio is the first team to come onto the smurf turf this year to be served up as fodder for Boise State. Boise State, even though their offense looked bad against Michigan State, I attribute that to a hostile environment against a good defense and first game rust. With 2 weeks to prepare, they will look like the Boise State offense we are accustomed to. Miami played well against Ohio State for a quarter before wearing down, I don't think that will happen here, Boise State will step on the gas from the start and run Miami off the field. Which is why I think Boise State -20 is the play here.


My team finally gets on the board this week, going to Kansas to play what is universally agreed upon the worst team in the Big 12. And the line opened at 26.5 and since has dropped all the way to 21.5. I am guessing people don't think TCU will be able to go on the road and perform against a Big 12 team. But I disagree, at least against Kansas. This Kansas team is bad. Struggled against South Dakota State and lost to a bad Rice team with no defense. If Kansas could only score 24 against that Rice defense, what will they do against one of the top defensive programs in the country? And TCU's strength this year isn't even their defense, its their offense. TCU's offense is very efficient with both strong ground and air attacks. This game is a mismatch, I don't give a fuk that this is TCU's first Big 12 game on the road, Kansas blows and TCU will win by 30 minimum. Which is why I am surprised to see the line drop so much. Get TCU -21.5, but don't be surprised if it goes even lower.




Louisiana Tech put on an offensive show against Houston, but left a lot to be desired on defense. And they play another team this week from Houston that has no defense - Rice. But they get Rice at home for their first home game. Rice is coming off a big win for themselves, against Kansas. But Rice will find out that this seasoned Louisiana Tech team is not Kansas. Louisiana Tech has weapons on both sides of the ball, and will exploit the bad Rice defense like Kansas could not. And though Rice will have its moments on the Louisiana Tech defense, it won't be enough to stop the Bulldog offensive train, led by Colby Cammeron and Quinton Patton. This will be a start to finish rout, as Louisiana Tech tunes up for winnable games against Illinois and Virginia. Louisiana Tech -20 is the right play here.


I got burned betting on Bowling Green due to questionable coaching on Saturday. Unfortunately for Bowling Green, they will be playing Toledo, who is a large step up from Idaho. And they are on the road. Their questionable coaching decisions did not kill them against Idaho because its Idaho. But Toledo will make them play. Toledo has been solid this year, nearly beating Arizona(which is more impressive now after Arizona's blowout against OKST) and beating a sneaky tough Wyoming team in Laramie. So this Toledo team has some momentum. Bowling Green, meanwhile, struggled to move the ball against Idaho and showed too many flaws. Toledo is the better team, they are at home, so hopefully when I bet on the MAC home team this week, I don't get burned. Play Toledo -6 because they are the better team, plain and simple.


South Carolina has gotten off to a strong start. I have to admit, I doubted them with Dylan Thompson against East Carolina, I thought they would struggle to put up points. But I was wrong, and it was my fault, ECU has had crappy defenses since Ruffin McNeil took over. So South Carolina was able to put up points anyway. I think that trend will continue this week when they face UAB at home. UAB is worse than East Carolina on both sides of the ball. UAB gave up 39 to Troy. UAB will be embarrased here. Which is why I am suprised the spread is only 34.5, I think South Carolina wins by closer to 50 than 35. Either way, South Carolina -34 is a good play since UAB probably won't score.


Another game with a 34 point spread I like is New Mexico and Texas Tech. Though New Mexico has a new coach, they are still New Mexico, arguably the worst FBS program since 2009. They were shut out against Texas, which isn't surprising but they just couldn't get anything going offensively. I expect them to do better offensively this week against Texas Tech, but worse defensively. Texas Tech has the better offensive attack, and always runs up the score in these cupcake non conference games. Texas Tech will flex their muscle here, because I don't know if they will get the chance to in Big 12 play. New Mexico will score a TD or two, but give up 50 in the process. Texas Tech -34 is the play in Lubbock.


Notre Dame is 2-0, but will get their toughest test yet as they go to Michigan State. And I will say it right now: I don't think things are going to end well for Notre Dame here. Michigan State will be too much, their offense will be on the same level as Purdue but the defense will be at a higher level. That is why I think Michigan State will grind out a double digit win against Notre Dame. Michigan State will frustrate the Notre Dame offense, then play conservative with the ball. Surprised the spread is only -3, its at -3.5 now but I like Michigan State by double digits here, Michigan State -3 is the way to go.


In El Paso, UTEP returns home to play New Mexico State. Last time at the Sun Bowl, UTEP hung with Oklahoma for 3.5 quarters before losing. I just don't think UTEP is a good team, it was more of Oklahoma beating themselves. UTEP still has bad offense. And they will not play with the energy against NMSU as they did against Oklahoma, even though its a rivalry game. New Mexico State has improved, they played decently against Ohio before losing, but Ohio is a good team, UTEP is not, I like New Mexico State to cover here, New Mexico State +13 is the play and Mike Price is closer to the hot seat.


At the Rose Bowl, UCLA has gotten off to a strong start, winning at Rice and then beating Nebraska. They get a Houston team who misses Kevin Sumlin and Case Keenum. Houston who looked flat in Week 1 showed life in Week 2, losing to Louisiana Tech by 7 at home, 56-49. Though UCLA's defense isn't the strongest, I like UCLA to overwhelm Houston here, Houston will not have the defense to keep up, regardless of what they do on offense. Though UCLA could have a Nebraska hangover here and overlook this game and come in confident, its not going to be Houston that does them in, Houston has too many problems right now. UCLA -16.5 small.


In Lincoln, Nebraska returns after a disappointing loss to UCLA. They get Arkansas State, who looked awful against Memphis. Arkansas State still won, but I and many others had Memphis pegged as the WORST, and I mean the worst, team in the country. And Arkansas State needed a late TD to beat that Memphis team at home. I was let down by Arkansas State, who looked respectable in the 2nd half against Oregon, looking bad against Memphis and costing me a bet. So likewise, I am going to do the smart thing and take Nebraska -24 here, because Nebraska seems to always blow these kinds of teams out at home, and will do so to Arkansas State. Arkansas State had offensive problems against Memphis, and defensively looked bad, letting Memphis light them up. Nebraska will get over their UCLA loss with a big win here.




One team that has been a disappointment so far is Florida International. They were supposed to compete with Duke and compete for the Sun Belt title, but got blown out. Then they almost lost at home to a bad Akron team. Next on the slate is a trip to Orlando to play Central Florida. If the first two games are an indicator, Florida International is in for trouble. Now Central Florida played a strong game against Ohio State, losing by only 15. There might be a hangover for UCF here, as they will have a hard time getting up for FIU. But even then, UCF is the better team here, and FIU has problems that I don't think will be solved against Central Florida. Play UCF -14.5 in this game.


Oklahoma State went into Arizona and got embarrased. They showed that the QB play leaves a lot to be desired, but what was worst was the defensive performance which was an absolute disgrace. They will have to get over Arizona quickly, because a hot and motivated and under rated Louisiana Lafayette is coming to town. Louisiana Lafayette is no joke, they just dismantled Troy in a Sun Belt game on the road. They will be playing to win this game. I think Oklahoma State will have an Arizona hangover here, which will leave the door open for Louisiana Lafeyette. LALA's QB is still questionable, but I think he will play, and help the Rajun Cajuns cover here. This will be a high scoring affair, and I think the Cajuns will put up just enough points to cover due to a weak Oklahoma State defense. Louisiana Lafayette +22 is the play, but watch the injury reports.


One of the most impressive performances by a team in Week 2 was Kansas State's dismantling of Miami. Though I don't think Miami is a good team, it was still a blowout win that gives Kansas State momentum. Now, getting up for North Texas will not be as easy as getting up for Miami, but Kansas State has to be confident right now that they can beat anyone. North Texas has a lousy offense, and are still a couple years away. That is why I like Kansas State to cover here, they are on a roll and North Texas has no business covering. Kansas State -28 is the play.

[crustyme]

if you really love a play, do you double your bet size to $30?

[frogsrangers]

if you really love a play, do you double your bet size to $30?

Kind of like how your mom charges extra because of her weight

[Vinnie Paz]

Which ones are your bigger/smaller plays?
Your record says you have 1-5 unit picks, but your write ups dont say which are which

[frogsrangers]

Which ones are your bigger/smaller plays?
Your record says you have 1-5 unit picks, but your write ups dont say which are which

Unit Sizes:

1 = SMU +15, Pitt +11.5, Texas Tech -34, New Mexico State +13, UCLA -16.5
2 = USC -9.5, Louisiana Lafayette +22
3 = Purdue -23, Louisiana Tech -20, South Carolina -34, Michigan State -3, Nebraska -24, Kansas State -28
4 = Ohio State -15.5, Boise State -20, TCU -21, Toledo -6
5 = Northwestern -4, Missouri -7.5, Louisville -3, UCF -14.5

[Vinnie Paz]

Thanks, should put them in your write up so we know.

Also, not to be a dick, but you dont think you play way too many games? I think you had at least 15 last week and now 21. Have you always played this many & actually done well?

[convick]

Thanks, should put them in your write up so we know.

Also, not to be a dick, but you dont think you play way too many games? I think you had at least 15 last week and now 21. Have you always played this many & actually done well?

Guy wont listen. He also has like 20 teasers and parlays which he doesnt post. Guess it doesnt matter when each unit is 1 dollar.

[xstud]

Take it easy guys. His Zero unit plays are killing!

[frogsrangers]

Thanks, should put them in your write up so we know.

Also, not to be a dick, but you dont think you play way too many games? I think you had at least 15 last week and now 21. Have you always played this many & actually done well?

It's my style

Last year I played 171 games straight up and went 101-70

Plenty of other threads here where the posters only play 2 or 3 games a week but thats not my style

[ChuckyTheGoat]

If you know a sport and follow it closely, nothing wrong w/ having a lot of plays. Don't want to leave $ on the table. My general rule of thumb is: action on 40 to 45% of the games studied is reasonable. That means you're passing more than half the games and still getting down on a chunk of action.

[possum11]

I agree. I also play a lot of games and always win at the end of the season. I wouldn't still be doing the same thing after 10 years if I was losing. Last year I even hit a 15 team parlay in week 5. People that pick 3 games don't even get the chance to do something like that. Like your picks - keep it up!

[Vinnie Paz]

Yeah theres just somethinf about ncaaf that makes me play a lot of games each week, but only on college ball.

Mlb ive come to the realization anymore than about 3 games is too much, hard enough to squeek out a win un that sport.

But college football i usually find 5-7 solid spreads a weekend, not as much as you frogs but to each their own, if it aint broke fukk it. Gl bro i appreciate the write ups. Gonna grab a couple of these myself, good luck on Rest of wnba as well

[possum11]

There are a few reason why its OK to bet more games in college football including: more games take place in a day, more time to research, and the games mean more. I would say college football players are more motivated to win on a given day than most sports because one game can cost you the conference or national title.

[Vinnie Paz]

Frogs check in

[frogsrangers]

Posting my full slate when I get home

[Vinnie Paz]

How do you feel about that a&m /smu game to go over?

[shooms79]

BOL this week

[frogsrangers]

How do you feel about that a&m /smu game to go over?

Havent seen a posted total yet

But my prediction for the game is Texas A&M 45 SMU 35, so compare that to whatever the total is

[frogsrangers]

And I pick a lot of games for college because its a sport that lends itself to that. With over 120 teams, its easy to find mismatches in the lines, as well as the lines not being so sharp for the smaller conference teams who do not get a lot of exposure if any.

Pro sports you pick your spots carefully like a sniper rifle

But in college I think its better to scattershoot

[frogsrangers]

Week 3 Big Board

The 0 Unit Plays

Away	Away Score	Home	Home Score	Play
RUT	17	SFLA	27	SFLA -7.5
WAST	24	UNLV	20	UNLV +8.5
NAVY	21	PAST	26	NAVY +6
MASS	3	MICH	54	MICH -45.5
NILL	27	ARMY	17	NILL -3
WAKE	17	FLST	45	WAKE +28
CONN	14	MARY	13	MARY +2.5
ECU	24	USM	40	USM -7.5
TEX	24	MISS	13	TEX -9
BYU	28	UTAH	20	BYU -4
UVA	14	GTCH	31	GTCH -10
ALA	31	ARK	17	ARK +21
WMU	17	MINN	21	MINN -2.5
OHIO	26	MRSH	24	MRSH +7
FLA	24	TENN	21	FLA +3
COST	14	SJSU	27	SJSU -11
UTST	16	WISC	27	UTST +14
IDHO	0	LSU	41	IDHO +43
BALL	24	IND	21	BALL +2.5
COL	13	FRES	30	FRES -15
FLAT	3	UGA	44	FLAT +43
SOAL	7	NCST	41	NCST -31
MTSU	17	MEM	24	MEM +4
WKU	16	UKY	21	WKY +8
MSST	28	TROY	21	TROY +16
ULM	21	AUB	35	ULM +17

The 1 Unit Plays

Away	Away Score	Home	Home Score	Play
TA&M	45	SMU	35	SMU +15
VT	24	PITT	17	PITT +11.5
NMSU	20	UTEP	24	NMSU +13
HOU	24	UCLA	45	UCLA -16.5
UNM	14	TTU	56	TTU -34

The 2 Unit Plays

Away	Away Score	Home	Home Score	Play
LALA	24	OKST	41	LALA +22.5

The 3 Unit Plays

Away	Away Score	Home	Home Score	Play
UAB	0	SCAR	45	SCAR -34
EMU	7	PUR	41	PUR -23
RICE	24	LTCH	56	LTCH -20
ARST	20	NEB	49	NEB -24

The 4 Unit Plays

Away	Away Score	Home	Home Score	Play
USC	38	STAN	14	USC -9.5
CAL	14	OHST	37	OHST -15.5
MIOH	17	BOST	49	BOST -20
BGSU	14	TOL	34	TOL -6

The 5 Unit Plays

Away	Away Score	Home	Home Score	Play
TCU	45	KAN	10	TCU -21
ND	17	MIST	28	MIST -3
BC	14	NW	31	NW -4
AZST	14	MIZZ	34	MIZZ -7.5
UNC	21	LOU	35	LOU -3
FIU	14	UCF	35	UCF -14.5

[frogsrangers]

PARLAY RANKINGS (odds as of WED SEP 12)
---------------------------------------
1 Northwestern -3.5
2 Missouri -6.5
3 Louisville -3
4 USC -8
5 Toledo -3.5
6 TCU -21
7 Boise State -21
8 New Mexico State +12.5
9 Michigan State -6
10 South Carolina -33.5






6 POINT TEASER RANKINGS
-----------------------
1 Michigan State PK
2 Missouri -0.5
3 South Carolina -27.5
4 Texas Tech -27.5
5 Louisiana Lafeyette +28.5
6 New Mexico State +18.5
7 Northern Illinois +3
8 Louisville +3
9 Florida +9
10 Ball State +8.5




6.5 POINT TEASER RANKINGS
-------------------------
1 Michigan State +0.5
2 Missouri PK
3 USC -1.5
4 Toledo +3
5 New Mexico State +19
6 Memphis +10
7 Texas Tech -27
8 South Carolina -27
9 Louisville +3.5
10 Northern Illinois +3.5




7 POINT TEASER RANKINGS
-----------------------
1 USC -1
2 Ohio State -9.5
3 Texas -2.5
4 South Florida -0.5
5 Alabama -13.5
6 Louisiana Tech -13.5
7 Central Florida -10
8 Kansas State -21
9 Louisiana Monroe +23.5
10 TCU -14




10 POINT TEASER RANKINGS
------------------------
1 Louisville +7
2 Northern Illinois +7
3 Ohio State -6.5
4 Florida +13
5 Central Florida -7
6 South Carolina -23.5
7 TCU -11
8 Boise State -11
9 Texas +0.5
10 Purdue -14

[alabasterf]

Good luck on your picks.

[xcrazyaenoyx]

i been doing bad for past two weeks hopefully your picks will get me back on track. love your thread keep it up!

[frogsrangers]

Thinking about going big on an easy teaser tomorrow. Considering doing a 2 team 6 pointer Michigan State and Missouri for even money.

[shooms79]

BOL buddy

[RawBillyIce]

Frog,

If this is truly all your work then I respect it hands down. Someone did mention copy and paste and considering the length of your posts I could see how it would be mentioned. I try not to hate but I think we all have a little in us.

On another note, you made reference to your modeling. I am a math major so would you mind if I asked/inquired about your modeling? Do you yourself do the math models or someone else?

Thanks

[tony_come]

Billy is sharp

[frogsrangers]

Frog,

If this is truly all your work then I respect it hands down. Someone did mention copy and paste and considering the length of your posts I could see how it would be mentioned. I try not to hate but I think we all have a little in us.

On another note, you made reference to your modeling. I am a math major so would you mind if I asked/inquired about your modeling? Do you yourself do the math models or someone else?

Thanks

I do not model for college football, I only do so for college basketball and WNBA, and the modeling I use for those sports are a straight ripoff of the algorithims used at www.kenpom.com

[frogsrangers]

A lot of chalk this week I know but I have gone up and down the board many times and am just seeing a favorable week for the favorites

[RawBillyIce]

what is your win/rate % over say ... all bets over last 90 days?


I'm down with you ... I am sure I can learn plenty from you



ps..who is the avitar girl?

[Koldazzice]

I noticed in your original write up you Layed -7.5 with mizzou and 21.5 with tcu. Did you not bet the game yet? I see you kept pitt at +11.5 but its at +10 but you adjusted the lines to the updated lines when they went against you.

Not trying to break balls but for accuracy sake you only kept the original lines that helped you but changed the lines that moved against you.

That being said I like your thought process generally but it seems you are making mistakes that I made early on as well. Betting a game -7.5 with many days left is not smart. Betting a game -21.5 (tcu) after it had already moved 4-5 points is not smart.

I learned the hard way about 5 years ago as I would just put in all my games on tuesday and ended up going 52% that year. I went over all my data and realized had I just been a better market reader I would have actually won 8 more games giving me a profit and a 55 win %.
Now I do like you seeing mich st -3 and getting on that early but the -7.5? you have to wait on those games. Even if you absolutely love mizzou this week. if the line moved to 8 even 8.5 who cares as 7 is such a key number, you must give that a chance to hit 7/6.5 before betting it.
Having patience around key numbers has helped me immensely in my gambling.

You may already know this (wasn't breaking balls just trying to help)

[frogsrangers]

I noticed in your original write up you Layed -7.5 with mizzou and 21.5 with tcu. Did you not bet the game yet? I see you kept pitt at +11.5 but its at +10 but you adjusted the lines to the updated lines when they went against you.

Not trying to break balls but for accuracy sake you only kept the original lines that helped you but changed the lines that moved against you.

That being said I like your thought process generally but it seems you are making mistakes that I made early on as well. Betting a game -7.5 with many days left is not smart. Betting a game -21.5 (tcu) after it had already moved 4-5 points is not smart.

I learned the hard way about 5 years ago as I would just put in all my games on tuesday and ended up going 52% that year. I went over all my data and realized had I just been a better market reader I would have actually won 8 more games giving me a profit and a 55 win %.
Now I do like you seeing mich st -3 and getting on that early but the -7.5? you have to wait on those games. Even if you absolutely love mizzou this week. if the line moved to 8 even 8.5 who cares as 7 is such a key number, you must give that a chance to hit 7/6.5 before betting it.
Having patience around key numbers has helped me immensely in my gambling.

You may already know this (wasn't breaking balls just trying to help)

I have tickets for Missouri -7.5, Missouri -6.5 and Missouri -4.5

I just put the best number I have a ticket for

[convick]

I have tickets for Missouri -7.5, Missouri -6.5 and Missouri -4.5

I just put the best number I have a ticket for

Sure you do..

[frogsrangers]

Sure you do..

Toledo is at -3 right now but I only have a ticket for Toledo -6 which is why I stuck with that number