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BangComment -
unreal this guy and his fukkin lillypadComment -
One thing i have learned is follow the threads and not the spreadsheets. Totally willing to give this guy a chance, but he has edited his spreadsheet dozens and dozens of times. Good luck froggie....and ditch the teaser, mls, and parlays. They are bound to lose over time. If you are good at picking sides, then stick with that. Just mhoComment -
just another broke $5 bettor trying to turn tout cause hes broke.
nothing to see here.Comment -
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About to go to the book and make my Week 2 plays. Already know what plays I am going to make, so I will do writeups and post these plays when I get back from work tonight. See lots of juicy lines that I have to pounce on now because not a snowballs chance they are staying there.Comment -
psu and new mex. hit em hard frogsComment -
Just made 9 Week 2 plays and have 10 leans that I am keeping an eye on but no play yet on them
Write ups and picks coming later tonight after I get off workComment -
the fukkin board showed how square it is by thinking this guy unburied himself
trigs, smokes and drinks on top of the facts around hereComment -
I am sure you guys had this thread open all day eager to post in it once my play lost
I don't care and this is my thread so I don't care if anyone tails or not I just want to show what I can do in football
And from here on out I am going to stick to what I did best betting straight up no more parlay or teasers in my sheet
I feel confident that going forward thisIs going to turn out OK. I guess though we just judge a capper by one week instead of a whole seasonComment -
Oh shut up you dumb fukk.Comment -
frogsrangers just do what you do best bro.. ignore the hater.
for all the haters y'all do have a choice follow as your own risk do not blame someone for your own stupidityComment -
Final Results for Week 1
Straight Bets: 12-10-1 , +5.4 units
Money Lines: 1-6-1, -2.05 units
Parlays: 0-5, -7.00 units
Teasers: 0-2, -4.00 units
0 Unit Plays: 13-6
1 Unit Plays: 3-4, -1.4 units
2 Unit Plays: 2-1, +1.8 units
3 Unit Plays: 3-2-1, +2.4 units
4 Unit Plays: 2-1, +3.6 units
5 Unit Plays: 2-2 -1.0 units
Total Units in Week 1: -7.65
Overall units to date: -7.65Comment -
Week 2 Plays & Writeups
Thursday, September 6
Only one game on the board for this one, kind of a let down, but that's Thursday apart from Week 1. And I think this is a pretty easy call. We have Pitt, who looked like horse shit against Youngstown State at home and were dominated on both sides of the ball in a 31-17 embarrasment of a loss. Then we have Cincinnati, who had a Week 1 bye, and is replacing key weapons on offense. But Butch Jones is a discipline of Brian Kelly, and in 2009 when Cincinnati lost Tony Pike at QB and that one running back midseason, Zach Collaros and Isaiah Pead stepped in and Cincinnati actually got better. Therefore I think Cincinnati is about the system, not players, and while things won't be buttery smooth, I also don't see a huge dropoff. So I think Cincinnati should be fine. In conclusion, I don't see how Pitt can turn around after that disgrace and go into Cincinnati and play a good game. Cincinnati will not be sharp, but they have had multiple weeks to prepare while Pitt has only had a couple of days, so Cincinnati should be able to cover here. Surprised the line is at -4, so grab Cincinnati -4 before it goes up.
Saturday, September 8
Decent non conference card for this day.
First off we have a game I circled back in June, and made posts about. That game is Air Force going to Ann Arbor to face Michigan. This has all the makings of a classic trap game. Michigan, fresh off an emotional game and deflating loss which sent them back to earth, has to regroup and shift their mindset and face a team that is difficult to prepare for. And looking at Michigan's schedule, they haven't faced any triple option teams lately. While Brady Hoke has experience against Air Force from his time at SDSU, its one thing for a coach to know what they are up against, its another for players. So I think Michigan is going to have their hands full here with Air Force's triple option, having never seen it. It's one thing to try to prepare for it in practice, its another to actually play against it at full speed. But Air Force has problems in this game too. Their defense will not be able to really stop Michigan, only contain it. So Air Force needs to force turnovers and chew the clock on offense. But as long as Air Force can put up some points, I really like Air Force +21.5 because its going to be tough for Michigan to be up for this game, at least defensively. Denard Robinson will still work his magic, but its meaningless if they can't contain the Falcons. Air Force has had some near misses in games like this in the past, including a 3 point loss to Oklahoma in 2010. Don't sleep on Air Force here.
In Columbus, Central Florida goes in to face Ohio State. A tall task indeed, but being banned from the postseason, consider this Central Florida's bowl game to prove their merit. The best team in Conference USA, they are going to face another team banned from postseason. But Ohio State's "superbowl" is the Big 10, not this game. So UCF is going to throw everything that they can to win this. Ohio State started slow against Miami OH, and UCF is on another level, so they can't afford to do that here. UCF is going to try, and try hard, and Ohio State is going to have to up their level too. It's one thing to face Miami OH, its another to face this determined UCF team. Ohio State should win, but UCF will fight and therefore UCF +17.5 is a logical play.
South of Ohio in Bowling Green, KY, we have a mismatch of epic proportions. The challenger is the Idaho Vandals, fresh off a 20-3 home loss to Eastern Washington. While EWU is one of the best FCS teams and could beat many FBS teams, Bowling Green is still miles better and EWU is only known for their offense, not defense. So only managing 3 points against EWU is not a good omen. And Bowling Green was very respectable against Florida, challenging them for 4 quarters before losing in the end. I think Bowling Green is going to roll here, easily covering, so Bowling Green -16 is one of the easiest plays of the week.
In Manhattan Kansas, we have a rematch of an epic game last year in which Kansas State won 28-24. But that was in Miami, and this one is in Wildcat Territory. While Kansas State looked bad for 3 quarters against Missouri State, I think they will shake off the rust here and get up for this one. And Miami beat Boston College, but I think Boston College is really bad so I don't think that tells us much about Miami. I don't think Miami is a solid team this year, so Collin Klein will have a good day and the home field advantage I think will allow a Kansas State -7 play to be a winner. Though I have visions of perhaps a Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech style game here where Kansas State wins but doesn't cover, I do not have enough faith in Miami being a good team for that to happen. Plus, Kansas State has an offense.
Next, we have a rare occurance of a Big 10 team going on the road to face an instate MAC rival. Michigan State, fresh off a big win against Boise State, goes to Central Michigan. Michigan State had a solid ground game against Boise State that should once again be the difference against a weaker Central Michigan squad. And while Central Michigan looked horrible against Southeast Missouri State, escaping with a narrow win, I think they will get up for this one, and provide somewhat of a fight. Michigan State is not a team that is going to be flashy, they just want to get a win. Central Michigan will play an inspired first half, not accomplishing much on offense but doing enough on defense to keep the game within somewhat of a reach. So Central Michigan +23.5 is a good play.
In Reno, Nevada fresh off a solid win at California is facing a South Florida team that continues to be a mystifying Jekyll and Hyde team. They were not impressive against UT-Chattanooga, and Nevada is a completely different beast here. In fact, I am completely surprised the line is -1 here. Nevada is simply the better team, and is at home. Nevada -1 is an easy call here, as they will roll.
North of Reno is Corvallis, home of Oregon State. Oregon State was off in Week 1, so this is their opener. And last year in the season opener they had a humilating defeat to Cal State Sacremento. Wisconsin almost suffered the same fate this season, narrowly escaping Northern Iowa. But I think that was a fluke, Wisconsin is a better team than that. And I think they figured out some problems against UNI that will not be a problem against Oregon State. Oregon State will play inspired, but in the end Wisconsin will wear them down and escape with a hard fought win. So I like Wisconsin -7.5 in this one, as they will iron out the wrinkles and get a blue collar win.
In the southeast, East Carolina travels to South Carolina. East Carolina toyed with Appalachian State before pulling away, and South Carolina had a hard fought win over Vanderbilt. East Carolina is still a good offensive team, while defensively they are still a question mark. But it doesn't matter, South Carolina has QB issues, and while Marcus Lattimore can carry them, he won't carry them enough to cover a 22.5 point spread. So I like East Carolina +22.5 here, because that is a large spread for USC to cover with the QB issues they have.
While UTEP played a hard fought and inspired game against Oklahoma, they have to forget about that and go on the road to Oxford, to face perhaps the worst SEC team. Ole Miss was in trouble vs. Central Arkansas before pulling away. But I think UTEP played above the level they are, plus their star running back was banged up against Oklahoma and will not be full strength here. Going on the road, they will not have the crowd in their favor, while Ole Miss will try to build on what went right in Week 1. I like Ole Miss to cover here, since UTEP is not a good team, and a bad offensive team to boot. Go with Ole Miss -7.5 in this one.
Texas State San Marcos, in their first year in FBS, might have pulled off the biggest Week 1 shocker, dominating Houston in their FBS debut. Dennis Franchoine is working his magic in San Marcos. Texas Tech, who was so-so against Northwestern State, is going on the road to be the first home opponent in Texas State's first ever FBS home game. So what can we expect? I don't think Texas Tech is that good of a team. They were bad last year, will probably be bad this year, and still has defensive issues. I think Texas State will build on their momentum from the Houston game and bring that with them here against Texas Tech at home. The Bobcats will be fired up and will be able to put up a good fight. So I like Texas State San Marcos +17 in this game, they won't win but will go down swinging.
Speaking of Houston, they have to regroup after that terrible performance to face a sleeper BCS contender, Louisiana Tech. Louisiana Tech's balloon popped when their game against Texas A&M was cancelled, so they have to try and rechannel that energy here at Houston, a team they should have beaten last year. Houston, meanwhile, has problems all over the board. Their offensive coordinator quit, and their offense looked awful against Texas State. Defensively, they weren't much better. There are too many problems for Houston to be able to fight against the better Louisiana Tech team. So I like Louisiana Tech -3.5 in this game, because they are the better team and Houston has too much distractions right now.
Another spread that surprised me is the Army/San Diego State game. San Diego State had an excellent defensive performance against Washington, and in my opinion outplayed the Huskies, but were let down by questionable coaching and special teams. And they have experience facing the triple option by playing Air Force each year. Army has to fly across the country to play this one, and its their first game. San Diego State had a lot of positives against Washington, while Army is a question mark. SDSU is the better team, which is why I am surprised the spread is only -4 here. The oddsmakers must not trust SDSU's special teams problems right now, but it won't matter, SDSU will just score touchdowns. San Diego State -4 in my opinion is one of the easiest calls of the week.
In the desert, we have the makings of an interesting game. Oklahoma State, fresh off an 84 point rout, meets Arizona, fresh off a lucky overtime win over Toledo. So naturally we think OKlahoma State should roll here, right? Not so fast. For all intents and purposes, this is Oklahoma State's first game after that scrimmage in Week 1. We don't know how good Wes Lunt is, or the new parts of Oklahoma State. And Arizona showed offensive and defensive problems against Toledo, but Toledo is a decent team. I think Arizona will play above their level in this game, and make things hard on Wes Lunt in his first real game, and a road game at that. I think Arizona getting 13 points at home is a gift, so Arizona +13 is the play. Too many question marks for Oklahoma State to lay 13 points on the road.
Just north of Tuscon is Tempe where Arizona State hosts Illinois. While Illinois beat a decent Western Michigan team 24-7, they still played bad. Offensively they were horrible, and defensively they were bailed out by Western Michigan mistakes and turnovers. Plus, their QB Nathan Scheelhaase was hurt, and may not be at 100% in this one. Meanwhile, Arizona State routed Northern Arizona 63-6, so they have some momentum to build on. Illinois isn't a good team, they were fortunate to beat WMU as comfortably as they did. And going on the road with QB issues is not a good thing, especially against a rejuvinated Arizona State team. That is why I like Arizona State -1 here, in a game between two teams like this you have to go with the home team.
My last play of the week in my opinion might be the easiest of the week. Memphis, who might be the worst FBS team, has problems. And it breaks my heart, since their head coach was my offensive coordinator at TCU. But not even Nick Saban could fix this mess overnight. It's a mess. Memphis is bad, and they showed it losing to Tennessee-Martin. Memphis is on the fast track to go 0-12 this year unfortunately. And in Week 2, they go to Arkansas State, fresh off a humiliating defeat to Oregon. While the first half was bad, Arkansas State showed glimpses of some positive things we can expect from them in the 2nd half. They scored, they moved the ball, and shut down Oregon's 2nd teamers, who are lightyears better than Memphis's offerings. So I think Arkansas State will take their frustration of the Oregon game out on Arkansas State, easily covering. This will be a start to finish rout. Arkansas State -23 is an easy pick.Comment -
Week 2 Unit Sizes
The 0 Unit Plays
Away Away Score Home Home Score Play Utah 34 Utah State 27 Utah State +7 Ped State 13 Virginia 27 Virginia -10 Indiana 19 Massachusetts 13 Massachusetts +13 Ball State 10 Clemson 45 Clemson -27 New Mexico State 10 Ohio 38 Ohio -21 Kent State 17 Kentucky 31 Kentucky -7 Rice 27 Kansas 37 Kansas -10 Toledo 24 Wyoming 31 Wyoming -3 North Carolina 27 Wake Forest 28 Wake Forest +8 Georgia 28 Missouri 27 Missouri +3.5 USC 48 Syracuse 24 Syracuse +27 Purdue 21 Notre Dame 31 Purdue +14.5 Fresno State 21 Oregon 58 Oregon -34 Iowa State 17 Iowa 20 Iowa State +3.5 Washington 17 LSU 38 Washington +23.5 Auburn 21 Mississippi State 24 Mississippi State -3 Maryland 13 Temple 24 Temple -10.5 New Mexico 7 Texas 45 Texas -38 Florida 28 Texas A&M 27 Texas A&M +1.5 Nebraska 38 UCLA 28 Nebraska -5 Army 14 San Diego State 35 San Diego State -4 NC State 24 UConn 27 UConn +5.5 Tulane 10 Tulsa 38 Tulsa -25 Vanderbilt 20 Northwestern 31 Northwestern +3 Duke 14 Stanford 31 Stanford -14 Akron 14 Florida International 41 Florida International -24 Louisiana Lafayette 24 Troy 21 Louisiana Lafayette +3 Florida Atlantic 21 Middle Tennessee 27 Florida Atlantic +8 Louisiana Monroe 17 Arkansas 52 Arkansas -30.5 Western Kentucky 7 Alabama 41 Western Kentucky +40
The 1 Unit Plays
The 2 Unit PlaysAway Team Away Score Home Team Home Score Play Central Florida 21 Ohio State 37 UCF +17.5 Miami FL 21 Kansas State 35 Kansas State -7 Michigan State 35 Central Michigan 14 Central Michigan +23.5 East Carolina 17 South Carolina 34 East Carolina +22.5 Texas Tech 42 Texas State-San Marcos 28 Texas State-San Marcos +17 Oklahoma State 38 Arizona 31 Arizona +13
Away Away Score Home Home Score Play Air Force 24 Michigan 38 Air Force +21.5 Wisconsin 37 Oregon State 20 Wisconsin -7.5 UTEP 13 Ole Miss 27 Ole Miss -7.5
The 3 Unit Plays
Away Away Score Home Home Score Play Louisiana Tech 34 Houston 20 Lousiana Tech -3.5 Illinois 13 Arizona State 24 Arizona State -1
The 4 Unit Plays
Away Away Score Home Home Score Play Pittsburgh 20 Cincinnati 31 Cincinnati -4
The 5 Unit Plays
Away Away Score Home Home Score Play Idaho 10 Bowling Green State 35 Bowling Green State -16 SouthFlorida 24 Nevada-Reno 38 Nevada-Reno -1 Army 14 San Diego State 31 San Diego State -4 Memphis 7 Arkansas State 42 Arkansas State -23 Comment -
From here on out, I am not going to include parlays & teasers for my spreadsheet or make them official plays in my thread. However, I will give parlay and teaser recommendations. Basically, I will list plays and rank them, so for example if you want to do a 3 team parlay, put the top 3 plays I list in it, if you want to do a 6 team parlay, put the top 6 plays I list in it, and so on.
PARLAY RANKINGS:
1 Bowling Green -16
2 Arkansas State -23
3 San Diego State -4
4 Cincinnati -4
5 Arizona State -1
6 Louisiana Tech -3.5
7 Nevada -1
8 Wisconsin -7.5
9 Ole Miss -7.5
10 Kansas State -7
6 PT TEASER RANKINGS
1 Bowling Green -10
2 Louisiana Tech +3.5
3 Wisconsin -1.5
4 Ole Miss -1.5
5 Arkansas State -17
6 Kansas State -1
7 Arizona State +5
8 East Carolina +28.5
9 Central Michigan +29.5
10 Texas A&M +7.5
7 PT TEASER RANKINGS
1 Bowling Green -9
2 Wisconsin -0.5
3 Ole Miss -0.5
4 Arkansas State -16
5 Cincinnati +3
6 San Diego State +3
7 Kansas State PK
8 Central Michigan +30.5
9 Virginia -3
10 Purdue +21.5
10 PT TEASER RANKINGS
1 Virginia PK
2 Bowling Green -6
3 Arkansas State -13
4 Purdue +24.5
5 Western Kentucky +50
6 Texas -28
7 Northwestern +7
8 Florida International -14
9 Arizona +23
10 East Carolina +32.5Comment -
lol that you think Miami will only put up 21 pts against that kansas st defense, you obviously didnt watch the miami game, I am a miami fan, and am biased, but I know an offensive power house when I see one, and Miami has all the parts in place, a strong line, morris was hitting every one on the numbers, his first 4 completions of the game were straight thru recievrs hands, including the INT,
Kansas St wont be able to keep up against the Miami defense, most of the yards gained were stupid coverage mistakes which I believe will be corrected, regardless, UM will wear them down, and even win this game on the ML, especially since they got no pressure on them, all the pressure is on the "ranked" team to perform....
honestly you could have waited a couple days and probably got this line atleast at -6, maybe even -4......
As for pittsburgh game they had 6 starters on defensive benched by the coach before the game for discplinary reasons, that wont happen this week,
anyways feel free to add discussion into my thread:
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Frogs if we could all analyze after the fact and say "oh I'm just going to stick to x type of bets i shouldn't have messed around with those crazy y and z bets" and edit our results accordingly we would all be multi millionairesComment -
If you aren't using Kelly to calculate your parlays, don't play parlays unless it is just for shits and gigglesComment -
yea, i guess he totally couldn't have stated picks in his thread that don't completely match those in his spreadsheet... that would just be impossible. Point is that when you resort his spreadsheet it shows that there are over 20 picks that have been edited in july and august alone. Perhaps that means nothing, but just odd that there would be so many edits.Comment -
You are a dumbass, if you could read the edit log you'd see that I have had a grand total of FOUR edits in August, all before August 30, the date of the first game.
08/29/2012 03:10 AM frogsrangers deleted 1 pick(s) from their spreadsheet. 08/29/2012 03:10 AM frogsrangers deleted 1 pick(s) from their spreadsheet. 08/29/2012 03:09 AM frogsrangers deleted 1 pick(s) from their spreadsheet. 08/25/2012 02:52 AM frogsrangers edited 1 of their picks
The first 3 edits were becuase I listed a game as WNBA instead of College Football, and the last one was because I accidentially gave a game 44 units instead of 4 units.Comment -
You don't even know how to use the spreadsheet , but I am the dumbass? Ok pal. Keep picking 20+ games a week and I'll pop in from time to time and watch you get buried. Funny, you talk about the 4 edits you had for CFB this year and there has only been ONE week. You think that you would have learned your lesson on how the spreadsheet works on the other 40+ edits you had in just the previous few months. BOL bud.Comment -
Started off the week with a nice 4 unit win.Comment -
Way to fade SBR public plays...Comment -
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