Hitting 65% on NFL Spreads

[Justin7]

I recently reviewed a Kindle book on amazon, where the author claimed to have an easy approach to win 65% of his NFL spread bets.

http://www.amazon.com/review/R3TZSBM00GHY16/ref=cm_cd_notf_message?ie=UTF8&cdForum=Fx3A1BQD10EFZTM&cdPage=1&cdThread=Tx3S0ZX78LS0QK6#MxFXQ01Y6MHKAF

It was very entertaining when the author critiqued my review. If successful stock pickers can pick 2 out of 3 winners, certainly we can do this in sports, right?

[JR007]

too small a sample size in the NFL, to hit at that rate

[ttrace35]

Tracer is the only one hitting these numbers.

[BigDeem5]

Who is this tracer, I wanna see what he has this year.

[chase hardy]

My buddy does it every year playing 1-2 games per week

[raydog]

[Smoke]

the only way to come out ahead in the NFL is to fade yourself.........

the NFL is a cash cow for the sportsbooks.....

[19th Hole]

Who is this tracer, I wanna see what he has this year.

[beefcake]

65% sure, and my name is Peter North, say hello to all the chicks I fukk every day..

[Smoke]

forgot about trigger trace.............

yes he is only one to consistenly win in the NFL

[ebbearsfb1]

Percentage doesn't mean squat if your not up units

[acl123]

unreal

[mathdotcom]

I recently reviewed a Kindle book on amazon, where the author claimed to have an easy approach to win 65% of his NFL spread bets.

http://www.amazon.com/review/R3TZSBM00GHY16/ref=cm_cd_notf_message?ie=UTF8&cdForum=Fx3A1BQD10EFZTM&cdPage=1&cdThread=Tx3S0ZX78LS0QK6#MxFXQ01Y6MHKAF

It was very entertaining when the author critiqued my review. If successful stock pickers can pick 2 out of 3 winners, certainly we can do this in sports, right?

Fukk the quality of sports betting books out there is dropping fast.

All this guy wants to do is talk about the stock market. Why doesn't he write a book about beating the stock market then?

The difference between first and last teams may have been constant over the past 20 years. I don't know. But who cares, why does that even matter?

Wow I would rather read a sports betting book written by Brock Landers

[Smoke]

Brock write a book for us!!

[BettingWizard]

The top hilton guys hit 65-70% doing 5 picks a week. Isn't there one guy that won multiple times?

[LVHerbie]

Justin when can we expect the kindle edition of your book? Paper is obsolete...

[TheMoneyShot]

With all due respect... if someone is trying to correlate Stock Investing to Sports Wagering has a screw loose. That's like saying playing blackjack is like trading a stock. Not even close.

[mathdotcom]

The guy has obviously never made a cent betting sports

[Justin7]

Justin when can we expect the kindle edition of your book? Paper is obsolete...

I can't find a .pub editor. If there were no charts, it would be easy.

[mathdotcom]

J7 shame on you for buying this book... it is the only sports betting related income the guy will make

[Sportsbetting123]

Anyone hitting that rate would never write a book or need to make it public at all.

[JR007]

Interesting book out on "adaptive drift modeling," in the financial and sports gambling markets, by William Mallios

you modeling dudes would eat it up, I have the file if you are interested

[High3rEl3m3nt]

In other news, only one copy of the book has been sold. Justin7 made this guy's year.

[dice]

The top hilton guys hit 65-70% doing 5 picks a week. Isn't there one guy that won multiple times?

I thought it was like 60 - 65% for the overall hilton contest winner (not top guys). And there is still luck involved. The second time he won I don't think he expected to win with three weeks left.

[Chi_archie]

if you win that much long term....you'd run out of outs and have no where left to bet...

[mathdotcom]

I find it truly hilarious how finance guys try to use time series statistics in sports

Sporting events have no serial correlation

Stock investors so proud of themselves when on average you're going to earn a positive return picking blind

That's like getting +110 on every bet you make in sports

[dice]

It looks like the 2011 winner was 67%.

[wantitall4moi]

percentages mean jack shit, a way of keeping score made up by touts to justify there picks.

65% of 20 pick is 13-7, if youre paying -110 youre up a little over 5 units, big frigging deal. Even if you could possibly go 65-35 over 100 picks, youre talking 26.5 units. Sounds decent but when compared to sports with some actual volume and 'value' in regards to vig it isnt much, especially when most guy dont think it is possible.

Hitting 65% isnt all that difficult, the thing is even doing it isnt any kind of windfall. Football is all about betting a lot HOPING to win a lot. If a guy can afford to play 5K a game then those 26.5 units would represent 132,500 bucks. Which if the guy can afford to lay 5k a game isnt going to be any kind of massive amount of cash to them.

NFL betting is all about subsets and betting dogs on the ML and looking to pound one or teo games a year for an amount that wouldnt follow any kind of sound money management outline. because there are games where the lines arent even close and thus can be taken advantage of in a major way.

In the end a guy who makes maybe 10 bets for 50 -75% of his bankroll per play and goes 7 of 10 will make out much better than someone following a betting strategy and trying to grind out a profit in the NFL. 7 of 10 is easily obtainable for guys with patience and a little bit of knowledge. Shit 10 of 10 wouldnt be unheard of in some cases. But it is still a major gamble. If you get unlucky and go broke after 2 plays then you either have to reload or quit. But if you go 2-0 and double up after 2 plays then youre on your way, but that is the same as any other prop where youre over betting and paying big vig.

[The Kraken]

The goal isn't to bet as little volume as possible to achieve a high win%, that's simply ludicrous.

The goal is to bet every +ev bet you can find, regardless of the edge, # of bets or overall win %. You will vary bet size according to edge however.

If you're only betting games where you have a huge edge, you're losing money

[GunShard]

The 2012 Beat the prick contest can determine the best NFL spread capper.

[jjgold]

Horrific book

Do not waste your fukkin time

Just another scammer trying to get rich

[HoulihansTX]

The top hilton guys hit 65-70% doing 5 picks a week. Isn't there one guy that won multiple times?

They pick from stale lines, and Fezzik won twice.

[d2bets]

The top hilton guys hit 65-70% doing 5 picks a week. Isn't there one guy that won multiple times?

That's what, like 75 plays. Let's see the same guy hit 65% over 10 or more seasons, then we can talk. How many Hilton entries are there? Like a few hundred? If you have a few hundred different tries, you can flip heads 65-70% one of those times also. Doesn't mean jack.

[nikossf]

65% documented over multiple seasons is VERY good. Your looking for the edge..52% covers. 53% covers fees/vig/time... Over multiple seasons this is very hard to achieve. You will have ups and downs.. Some seasons a lot better than others in which everything will figure out correctly..
If someone says they hit 70% last season and its documented....GREAT...But with sports betting..Most likely hit 30% the year before.

[dante1]

65% documented over multiple seasons is VERY good. Your looking for the edge..52% covers. 53% covers fees/vig/time... Over multiple seasons this is very hard to achieve. You will have ups and downs.. Some seasons a lot better than others in which everything will figure out correctly..
If someone says they hit 70% last season and its documented....GREAT...But with sports betting..Most likely hit 30% the year before.

Absolutely correct, 65% is fabulous and will make you a ton of money. Problem is almost nobody does this consistently year in and year out. I have never seen any one person do it and I have witnessed hundreds of players. Please believe me 65% consistently does not happen.