Hitting 65% on NFL Spreads

[edawg]

Complete BS show me a guy that can hit 65% in the NFL over the long haul (a decade plus) and I will give him the title BEST FOOTBALL BETTER EVER!

[edawg]

bettor

[paranoyd androyd]

bet big to win big, regardless if you can afford it or not. that's what gambling is about.
trying to play the "sports investing" strategy is way too much of a grind, less than 5% of people can do it.

the trick is to spot bet big and win the majority. you'll have some real cash earned while also spending the least amount of time "gambling". all action players lose eventually and aren't really in the game to win "big".

[dante1]

Complete BS show me a guy that can hit 65% in the NFL over the long haul (a decade plus) and I will give him the title BEST FOOTBALL BETTER EVER!

Correct sir, you would be hard pressed to find a guy do it two years in a row. Never happens. You would be hard pressed to find a guy doing 60% two years in a row.

[dante1]

Recall year after year after year guys that come on SBR and claim to do something like this, did one ever succeed? I don't think so, we are laughing at most of them after two or three weeks. It happens every year and it will happen again this year. Usually kids who think they know something.

[wantitall4moi]

The goal isn't to bet as little volume as possible to achieve a high win%, that's simply ludicrous.

The goal is to bet every +ev bet you can find, regardless of the edge, # of bets or overall win %. You will vary bet size according to edge however.

If you're only betting games where you have a huge edge, you're losing money

more make believe bullshit, this whole +ev nonsense. Here is a hint NO ONE, I repeat NO ONE, knows what +ev is BEFORE the game starts, at least in terms of who will win. Nor do they know their edge. You can only find an 'advantage' (edge) when you compare two or more separate things. If you see -2.5 -110 it obviously has more 'value' compared to -3 -110 for the same team, but if the dog wins SU then it holds ZERO value. So the trick is to find the game where value is irrelevant and pick and chose them.

That is where so many bettors make mistakes they let a line or a move or some opinion change their minds. So they see a game they like Team A -5.5. The game moves to -6 or even 6.5. So they either dont bet it or worse buy it to +7 or some nonsense and bet the other side. Their team wins by 14 going away and they are a loser, in more ways than one. Or on the flip side they like a dog +4, it moves to +3 with minimal odds, they see a rogue book offering -3 -110 on the other side, so they buy that side to -2.5 for say -125 (which some would call 'value') the dog wins SU. So yet another team they liked originally but played against because of some make believe 'value' system that guys who dont know shit are selling during football season. Basically you always want to get the b est number you can find, but always on the team you like. Dont switch sides or buy points or manipulate stuff. If you arent good enough to be convicted to your opinion you shouldnt be betting anyway or you should just buy a touts picks and let them give you plays since you dont trust your own.

Two betters both with 10K, one guy plays a 'sound' strategy assuming he will hit 65%, so his plays will be would (according to Kelly) be 26% or so. But most guys would bet half kelly most of the time so call it 13% per play. So assuming he doesnt start on a losing streak a guy who makes 60 wagers during a football season (3 a week) would be 39-21. His bankroll at the end of the season depending on how he changed his base bet amount as his bankroll grew and how his wins and losses came would end with between 42000-52000.

Bettor B who is not following any sort of money management Plays 20 games (1 a week) and goes 14-6. He bets between 50 and 75% per play. At the end of the season he would have between 34500-75000. Obviously the spread is bigger there due to bet size and volatility of bankroll adjustments. But if he had a 'perfect' split between wins and losses and adjusted accordingly this guy could make nearly 150K.

NFL is all about over betting and winning those over bets. Start with a set amount you can aford tolose and bet until you go broke or until the season ends. Because trying to follow a money management system isnt going to make you any sort of real money. because even assuming you could find 60 plays with a 65% edge and using half kelly, 13% per play is way more than anyone would consider a sound strategy but even doing that youre still only looking at making 5 times your money by the end of the season.

[Justin7]

If you're a newer bettor, you might want to just put wantitall4moi on ignore.

[BrianLaverty]

The top hilton guys hit 65-70% doing 5 picks a week. Isn't there one guy that won multiple times?

Fezzik did it two years in a row and has been absolutely horrible since...

[JR007]

there is some very basic stuff,........try to stay away from favorites and overs, and taking road favorites.......public does not lose all the time,.......but your value is going to be" contrarian " especially high profile games, remember, public perception built into the line, what happened the week before means nothing......

[wantitall4moi]

If you're a newer bettor, you might want to just put wantitall4moi on ignore.

LMAO yeah I know it. You guys who think you have it all figured out dont know jack shit, you read and try to write books while guys who have actually done it and made money hand over fist are looked down upon because they dont follow the make believe bull shit all the 'academic' guys try to come up with to put gambling into some easy to understand definition.

I have made more money this year just fooling around than all you clowns who sit and write about it combined. That doesnt include how much I made from 1998 til I got married 4 years ago and 'retired'. But if you can show that youre going to make about 250-300K this year then I might change my mind. But that is what I am going to end up with simply by starting out with a few grand and betting against the lakers and on a few other teams in the NBA and then parlaying it through this baseball season. I would make more but the limits in baseball now inhibit growth as I am at a ceiling on how much I can get down on games.

Go write a book or make a video about that....

[2daBank]

you aint lying Dante, seems every year we hear how easy nfl is and can almost be assured guy is either str8 full of shit or is just a kid that hasnt been doing it long...ive had some monster nfl seasons, then as you have said they followed by complete disasters... no false illusions here, been doing this shit a long time and nfl is far and away the most up and down yr to yr for me, on bright side didnt have good yr last season so hoping the back and forth lifetime trend continues w nfl for me .

[dante1]

you aint lying Dante, seems every year we hear how easy nfl is and can almost be assured guy is either str8 full of shit or is just a kid that hasnt been doing it long...ive had some monster nfl seasons, then as you have said they followed by complete disasters... no false illusions here, been doing this shit a long time and nfl is far and away the most up and down yr to yr for me, on bright side didnt have good yr last season so hoping the back and forth lifetime trend continues w nfl for me .

2d--after reading only two or three sentences I knew you were a seasoned player. I think sometimes it takes decades before people understand how difficult this game is. I too had some great NFL seasons because I give huge weight to the dogs in the NFL. I love playing the dogs. You almost never see a beginning player use the dogs. When I booked almost all players did the chalk. And almost all players lost. You want to lose, play the chalk and play parlays, I can almost guarantee you will lose more than win.

Somebody earlier just said don't worry about what happened the week before and that is great advice imo. Books use that info so you can use it too--against the books.

[phillybadboy]

riggs and maxlock 60% last season nfl

[dante1]

riggs and maxlock 60% last season nfl

Are these guys paid touts? If so--please!

[wtt0315]

You only need 1 thing to win in sports betting. Brocks picks

[CrazyCarl]

@Justin and Math, I'm sure you've been asked this a whole bunch, but what would be a good book to start with, and would there be any higher level math knowledge required before diving into it? The highest I took was pre-calc, and moved away from math because of boredom.

[dante1]

@Justin and Math, I'm sure you've been asked this a whole bunch, but what would be a good book to start with, and would there be any higher level math knowledge required before diving into it? The highest I took was pre-calc, and moved away from math because of boredom.

Really Carl, you're asking that question on SBR. I don't mean to be a wise guy but you know what this place is about right?

[k13]

The top hilton guys hit 65-70% doing 5 picks a week. Isn't there one guy that won multiple times?

They hit 50% on the average every year.

[wantitall4moi]

2d--after reading only two or three sentences I knew you were a seasoned player. I think sometimes it takes decades before people understand how difficult this game is. I too had some great NFL seasons because I give huge weight to the dogs in the NFL. I love playing the dogs. You almost never see a beginning player use the dogs. When I booked almost all players did the chalk. And almost all players lost. You want to lose, play the chalk and play parlays, I can almost guarantee you will lose more than win.

Somebody earlier just said don't worry about what happened the week before and that is great advice imo. Books use that info so you can use it too--against the books.

like i said its all about subsets and situations, For the most part the NFL is a sucker play but by week 3and 4 you can formulate some decent opinions, and generally from weeks 6 and 11 you find the most optimal plays, after that most people are broke and the volume decreases a lot so finding nuggets gets harder because the money that is left is a little smarter and thus harder to take advantage of.

But basically guys would be much better off playing the softer MLB lines until that season is over and then goofing around in the NFL for a week or two and wait for NCAA hoops to start up. Or maybe playing a few NCAA football games for shits and giggles. Limits are similar to the NFL and the 'value' is easier to find.

People bet the NFL because it is what every other wingnut bets so it gives people a sense of camaraderie. It is water cooler talk and people get to brag to guys about how much they won the day before on the games, and most people can relate. Basically the NFL is to gambling what New ears Eve is to guys who are 'professional' partiers.

[2daBank]

Are these guys paid touts? If so--please!

pretty sure they are..riggs used to post here then had decent run and apparently conned some dipshits into paying him for his awesome plays.... last i heard it didnt go well contrary to what this guy shilling for him is saying..

[k13]

Do 256 games where variance will be eliminated and talk about 65% then.

I'll give you a 100 years to try.

[betplom]

65% sure, and my name is Peter North, say hello to all the chicks I fukk every day..

You mean AFTER he stopped fukking guys every day, right?

[dante1]

like i said its all about subsets and situations, For the most part the NFL is a sucker play but by week 3and 4 you can formulate some decent opinions, and generally from weeks 6 and 11 you find the most optimal plays, after that most people are broke and the volume decreases a lot so finding nuggets gets harder because the money that is left is a little smarter and thus harder to take advantag
But basically guys would be much better off playing the softer MLB lines until that season is over and then goofing around in the NFL for a week or two and wait for NCAA hoops to start up. Or maybe playing a few NCAA football games for shits and giggles. Limits are similar to the NFL and the 'value' is easier to find.

People bet the NFL because it is what every other wingnut bets so it gives people a sense of camaraderie. It is water cooler talk and people get to brag to guys about how much they won the day before on the games, and most people can relate. Basically the NFL is to gambling what New ears Eve is to guys who are 'professional' partiers.

Sounds like you are a consistent winner, you should post your games this year in the NFL and share the wealth.

[dante1]

Do 256 games where variance will be eliminated and talk about 65% then.

I'll give you a 100 years to try.

Yeah me too. lol

[wantitall4moi]

Do 256 games where variance will be eliminated and talk about 65% then.

I'll give you a 100 years to try.

semantics and why arguing about percentages is useless.

When it comes to gambling, of any kind it comes down to how much you lay compared to how much you collect. The only reason why people use percentages is because NFL used to be universal at -110 hold, well that is a long long time ago. So these percentages are even less relevant than they used to be.

But the funny thing is people dont realize that if a guy hits 65% he is paying more hold than a guy who hits 55%. While that also might be semantics it can, with the right vig/holds be a huge difference.

But in case people dont know a guy who hits 65% at -110 is paying 5.91% in vig. The so called 4.54% is only for people who hit 50%. A 55% guy pays 5% @ -110. Obviously getting odds of less than -110 is going to make quite a difference and why reduced juice books changed the whole playing field when they first came on the scene. but even with them guys still couldnt win.

[wantitall4moi]

Sounds like you are a consistent winner, you should post your games this year in the NFL and share the wealth.

even when I bet for a living I bet less than 30 NFL games a year. I dont think I have made more than 5 NFL bets the past 4 or 5 years. Other than goof bets with relatives and in laws and buddies.

Gambling to me is about making money not a pissing contest on who can guess the most winners.

[dante1]

semantics and why arguing about percentages is useless.

When it comes to gambling, of any kind it comes down to how much you lay compared to how much you collect. The only reason why people use percentages is because NFL used to be universal at -110 hold, well that is a long long time ago. So these percentages are even less relevant than they used to be.

But the funny thing is people dont realize that if a guy hits 65% he is paying more hold than a guy who hits 55%. While that also might be semantics it can, with the right vig/holds be a huge difference.

But in case people dont know a guy who hits 65% at -110 is paying 5.91% in vig. The so called 4.54% is only for people who hit 50%. A 55% guy pays 5% @ -110. Obviously getting odds of less than -110 is going to make quite a difference and why reduced juice books changed the whole playing field when they first came on the scene. but even with them guys still couldnt win.

When I booked I could have gave most of the players even games and they still would not win.

What about posting your plays?

[dante1]

I respectfully must call bull shit on the "when I made a living" comment.

Also I have no idea the point you are trying to make with vig. I hit 65% I don't care if the vig is 110 or 115 it is almost irrelevant.

I think you are a kid.

[wantitall4moi]

I respectfully must call bull shit on the "when I made a living" comment.

Also I have no idea the point you are trying to make with vig. I hit 65% I don't care if the vig is 110 or 115 it is almost irrelevant.

I think you are a kid.

Whatever, like I care what you guys think. I have been on these forums longer than you have had the internet. Not that that matters. But my track record is well established on what I did and what I have done gambling on sports.

But if you dont think vig matters then you dont have a frigging clue thats for sure.

[dante1]

Whatever, like I care what you guys think. I have been on these forums longer than you have had the internet. Not that that matters. But my track record is well established on what I did and what I have done gambling on sports.

But if you dont think vig matters then you dont have a frigging clue thats for sure.

If you hit at 65% the vig is almost irrelevant. Do the math. We are not talking about 300 and 400 favs correct.

I remember years ago when a buddy of mine were betting the Reds. This is in the 70's and they were winning like crazy. I said Barry you do realize what you are laying here and he replied, hey it doesn't matter what we are laying if we win every game.

If you didn't care what we think you would never have made that comment, 99 times out of 100 that comment is bs.

[CrazyCarl]

Really Carl, you're asking that question on SBR. I don't mean to be a wise guy but you know what this place is about right?

Just for clarification, as I think you may have misunderstood my question: I meant a book, as in the type of book that the OP was talking about (one you read).

[dante1]

Just for clarification, as I think you may have misunderstood my question: I meant a book, as in the type of book that the OP was talking about (one you read).

I'm sorry carl don't mean to be a dick, did misunderstand.

[dante1]

And I am having an argument with a guy that pays hookers and then grades them on the net. I must be crazier than he is.

Hey guy you are a geek and a bs, I can guarantee that.

[ProfaneReality]

Fezzik did it two years in a row and has been absolutely horrible since...

and he did it against stale lines, not market numbers

[wantitall4moi]

and he did it against stale lines, not market numbers

the year fezzik won his second one he was posting plays on his forum trying to setup a tout service, he lost his ass so bad he basically left the board. So while he won that contest he lost more money (had he actually bet real money on his plays) than he collected from that win.