UFC 148 7/7 CHAD MENDES -450 --- VIDEO --- If this doesn't hit...

[BIGDAY]

Lol at Cody, guy thinks he's going to win! Hahahahaha

[Vitooch]

Sure it's possible, just as it's possible that Tom Cruise will be caught jerking off Anderson Cooper in the locker room of Yoislandy Izquierdo.

Cody has NEVER knocked anyone out in his entire career. His standup is awkward, and ugly. I'm just not ready to count it as a possibility against the best fighter he's ever faced.

[gabe]

Sure it's possible, just as it's possible that Tom Cruise will be caught jerking off Anderson Cooper in the locker room of Yoislandy Izquierdo.

Cody has NEVER knocked anyone out in his entire career. His standup is awkward, and ugly. I'm just not ready to count it as a possibility against the best fighter he's ever faced.

You say it's possible, but won't count it as a possibility? Ok...

Mendes has never beaten anybody by armbar or d'arce choke, and no one has submitted Cody by armbar or d'arce choke, so I guess Mendes catching Cody with an armbar or d'arce is also impossible, eh? lol'd

[BIGDAY]

Cody wins this fight less than 10% of the time.

[Vitooch]

You say it's possible, but won't count it as a possibility? Ok...

Mendes has never beaten anybody by armbar or d'arce choke, and no one has submitted Cody by armbar or d'arce choke, so I guess Mendes catching Cody with an armbar or d'arce is also impossible, eh? lol'd

Anything is possible, but I don't see anything of those things realistically happening, certainly not enough to be worth mentioning. Mendes has fought BJJ black belts like Rani Yahya with submission games 1000 times better than Cody's. I think Mendes is an intelligent enough fighter to avoid anything Cody can throw at him, because Mendes has done so against MUCH better fighters.

[gabe]

Anything is possible, but I don't see anything of those things realistically happening, certainly not enough to be worth mentioning. Mendes has fought BJJ black belts like Rani Yahya with submission games 1000 times better than Cody's. I think Mendes is an intelligent enough fighter to avoid anything Cody can throw at him, because Mendes has done so against MUCH better fighters.

No matter how much more talented Mendes is, that doesn't mean he can't get caught. Cody has a better chance at catching Mendes than Serra did against GSP. Even Varner vs Barboza.

[probettor1]

ah yes very good, really didnt expect u to come back with a random picture off google...ur unpredictable wit makes up for it all

I hope you forgive me Vaughany, I like you and swear I wont post the other picture you sent me banging cows and chimps.

[BIGDAY]

Gabe, I disagree. I honestly don't see KO power coming from Cody at 145lbs.

[Vitooch]

While no one would call Varner a knockout machine, he has many TKO wins registered on his fight history. Cody does not. Varner possesses the relatively superior technical striking and power compared to Cody. If you were to simulate Varner/Barboza another 100 times, Varner would register a fair amount of TKO wins. Maybe not enough times that that occurrence would be tangible, but certainly more than Serra TKOing GSP and Cody TKOing Mendes combined. As proven in their rematch, if we were to simulate GSP and Serra 100 times, Serra TKO's GSP would a very small amount of times. That was a one in a million type occurrence, as Cody TKOing Mendes would be.

[gabe]

While no one would call Varner a knockout machine, he has many TKO wins registered on his fight history. Cody does not. Varner possesses the relatively superior technical striking and power compared to Cody. If you were to simulate Varner/Barboza another 100 times, Varner would register a fair amount of TKO wins. Maybe not enough times that that occurrence would be tangible, but certainly more than Serra TKOing GSP and Cody TKOing Mendes combined. As proven in their rematch, if we were to simulate GSP and Serra 100 times, Serra TKO's GSP would a very small amount of times. That was a one in a million type occurrence, as Cody TKOing Mendes would be.

I think if they fought 20 times, Cody would be able to catch him at least once.

Barboza had never been KO'd, so Varner wouldn't register a fair amount of KO's. If that were the case, he would have never been a near +600 dog.

[gabe]

Gabe, I disagree. I honestly don't see KO power coming from Cody at 145lbs.

He doesn't need to have power. All he has to do is lift a knee.

But he will have more power in this fight than he did in his first 3. (this is his fifth)

[Vitooch]

I think if they fought 20 times, Cody would be able to catch him at least once.

Barboza had never been KO'd, so Varner wouldn't register a fair amount of KO's. If that were the case, he would have never been a near +600 dog.

Varner was proven to be way undervalued in that fight. Varner was the first fighter to be agressive standing and not get into a technical muay thai match the way Njoukani, Lullo and Etim did. Varner by TKO is realistic, I don't think Cody winning this fight by TKO is even close to as realistic as Varner TKO.

[gabe]

Varner was proven to be way undervalued in that fight. Varner was the first fighter to be agressive standing and not get into a technical muay thai match the way Njoukani, Lullo and Etim did. Varner by TKO is realistic, I don't think Cody winning this fight by TKO is even close to as realistic as Varner TKO.

People didn't think Barboza getting KO'd was a realistic possibility.

If Cody wins, you could say the same for him. "He was proven to be way undervalued in that fight." Point is, nobody thought Varner would be able to KO Barboza.

This is a pointless discussion. Just saying I wouldn't be surprised if Cody catches him, s'all. Seen a lot crazier things happen. This one, although a longshot, wouldn't surprise me in the least.

[Vitooch]

If you were to ask people before that fight, what is the more likely outcome, everyone besides you would say Varner knocking out Barboza.

[probettor1]

Cody McKenzie is an anomaly in the UFC. He doesn't look like a fighter, yet he finds a way to win when the odds are stacked against him.
Of his 13 career wins, all but one have come by way of a guillotine choke. It's a choke that he's perfected and one that opponents have trouble training for because of the way he sets up his hands.
The big problem, though, is that he's super limited, and if he can't submit an opponent, he ends up on the end of a beating.

mmm

[Oblivian]

I bit on Mendes by SOTN. While I recognize a chance for a sub to happen in the more high profile fights, I think Mendes is more likely to grab McKenzie's neck at some point. I rarely bet on bonuses for the night, but I had to bite here.

[gabe]

If you were to ask people before that fight, what is the more likely outcome, everyone besides you would say Varner knocking out Barboza.

LOL

Everyone thought Varner was on a major decline and this was an easy gift of a win for Barboza. Same thing they're saying about this fight, that McKenzie is a gift for Mendes to get an easy win... Except it's Cody who wanted this fight. He's not gonna ask for a fight he doesn't think he's got a legitimate chance at winning.

Chad most likely wins, but I still say value is with Cody at +500.

[PunisherIND]

McKenzie ITD +935
McKenzie by decision +650



source: 5Dimes

[Vitooch]

Im not saying Varner winning by TKO was at all realistic. However, I would absolutely say Varner tkoing Barboza is more likely.

[probettor1]

And with McKenzie's height comes length. McKenzie will enjoy a 10-inch reach advantage.
That means, in order for Mendes to land any significant shots, he has to go well into the range of McKenzie's arms. And his head will, at best, be level with McKenzie's arm.
And that's when McKenzie will utilize his winning technique: the standing guillotine.

mmm

[probettor1]

Sat 7/7		1403 McKenzie/Mendes goes 3 round distance		<input id="editx" name="M1_99" maxLength="5" size="4"> +170
10:30PM		1404 Fight won't go 3 round distance		<input id="editx" name="M2_99" maxLength="5" size="4"> -230
Sat 7/7		1405 McKenzie wins inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M1_100" maxLength="5" size="4"> +935
10:30PM		1406 Not McKenzie inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M2_100" maxLength="5" size="4"> -1905
Sat 7/7		1407 McKenzie wins by 3 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M1_101" maxLength="5" size="4"> +648
10:30PM		1408 Not McKenzie by 3 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M2_101" maxLength="5" size="4"> -1342
Sat 7/7		1409 Mendes wins inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M1_102" maxLength="5" size="4"> -160
10:30PM		1410 Not Mendes inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M2_102" maxLength="5" size="4"> +120
Sat 7/7		1411 Mendes wins by 3 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M1_103" maxLength="5" size="4"> +248
10:30PM		1412 Not Mendes by 3 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M2_103" maxLength="5" size="4"> -342
Sat 7/7		1413 McKenzie/Mendes draw		<input id="editx" name="M1_104" maxLength="5" size="4"> +8000
10:30PM		1414 Fight not a draw		<input id="editx" name="M2_104" maxLength="5" size="4"> -21500

[probettor1]

There are many options here better that a -650.

Not mendes inside distance at +120 for anyone thinking that mendes cant finish fights
mendes inside distance -160 to anyone thinking that mendes will destroy mck

[probettor1]

McKenzie wins inside distance +935 to hedge is good. Either he finish mendes or he get a beating.

[probettor1]

yes, I'm just lost here. i do much better watching porn

[BIGDAY]

McKenzie ITD +935
McKenzie by decision +650



source: 5Dimes

Tells me that books know Cody isn't KOing or subing Mendes. I have no idea why people think he will catch Mendes.

[PunisherIND]

Tells me that books know Cody isn't KOing or subing Mendes. I have no idea why people think he will catch Mendes.

but dont you think its even less likely that mckenzie wins a decision??

bookmaker has ITD @ +550 and distance +1000. that seems more accurate imo.

[probettor1]

but dont you think its even less likely that mckenzie wins a decision??

bookmaker has ITD @ +550 and distance +1000. that seems more accurate imo.

1 mendes win by decision 40%
2 mendes win inside 25%
3 mck wins inside 35%
4 mck wins by decision 0%
5 I'm an asshole 100%

[BIGDAY]

Well not really, I see Cody's way to victory by using his reach advantage and keeping Mendes at bay. He ain't finishing Mendes.

[probettor1]

Well not really, I see his way to victory by using his reach advantage and keeping Mendes at bay. He ain't finishing Mendes.

Mendes is an animal, his strength and speed will need to be stopped or Mck will taste the effects of HGH

[probettor1]

I'm the biggest bigday's videos fan in the board, if you hit this one I'll pay you with sbr point if you do another video making fun all the guys here bitching your play, including me, but you have to say my name, or no points.

[BIGDAY]

I'm the biggest bigday's videos fan in the board, if you hit this one I'll pay you with sbr point if you do another video making fun all the guys here bitching your play, including me, but you have to say my name, or no points.

"When" this wager cashes tomorrow I might do a vid. But I rarely rip on people. Will just incourage them more. I'll throw ya a shout out. Don't worry about the Pts pal.

[probettor1]

"When" this wager cashes tomorrow I might do a vid. But I rarely rip on people. Will just incourage them more. I'll throw ya a shout out. Don't worry about the Pts pal.

[fishmonger]

Just went all in on my 5dimes account on this play. I might throw up now. I can't believe i just laid that much juice.

[goblue12]

Up to -603 at Pinnacle so you're in good shape.

[probettor1]

Just went all in on my 5dimes account on this play. I might throw up now. I can't believe i just laid that much juice.

100 dollars? that's a lot.