Understanding teasers (video)
I got long-winded, sorry.
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Another good video Mr.Justin.
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Justin..as always a great Vid...some great information in there!Comment -
nice vidComment -
Good video w/out giving too much away.Comment -
Solid info.Comment -
good video, but if you play blindly teasers in these two ranges (1,5;2,5) and (-7,5;-8,5) you can have your account closed or your limits reduced because it's a value bet.
however, there is another sharp bet on teasers you can make.
let's say you like two 7 point favorites and the line stay solid during all week on this number released by the book.
you can make a two team 6,5 point teaser and "grabbing this interesting half point' it means both teams need to win because pickem is the same than - 0,5 (7-6,5= 0,5)
kowing that the probability of the game landing on the 7 is nearly 6 percent even at -120 odds it still a value bet i think, but the advantage is very small.Comment -
good stuff Justin, can you tell us what the hell happened to Peter L?Comment -
edoux1,
There is a ton of other stuff you can do with teasers. I deliberately omitted a lot of it.
Finding good books that will take teaser bets isn't nearly as hard as some people think.Comment -
Why hold back on the good stuff?
Idiots like me need help.
I just starting betting teasers this year and I'm up.
I'd like to keep it going.Comment -
You'll find this will happen no matter what if you are making bets with +EV.good video, but if you play blindly teasers in these two ranges (1,5;2,5) and (-7,5;-8,5) you can have your account closed or your limits reduced because it's a value bet.Comment -
I would receive death threats if I spilled all the beans.Originally posted by fiveteamerComment -
Pinnacle won't boot me.
TRUST ME.
TELL.
cocktease!!!Comment -
That's not what it's about. Pinnacle already tries to prevent Wong teasers as does 5 Dimes. You don't want stuff like this becoming publicly available or you kill your golden goose.Pinnacle won't boot me.
TRUST ME.
TELL.Comment -
nobody will boot youOriginally posted by fiveteamer
pinny hardly takes teasers anyway
these things aren't difficult to figure outComment -
good vid Justin... up next, advanced teasers... you know you know...Comment -
Stay gold, Ponyboy
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Great video, JustinComment -
Nice video!
Wouldn't buying 6 on a +4.5 dog also go into up over 15% and in the range of 20%. Seems like you see a lot of dogs lose by ten points.Comment -
Originally posted by donjuanHow do pinny and 5D try to prevent it?pinny hardly takes teasers anyway
these things aren't difficult to figure out
I started looking into teaseres reacently and while I havent placed any bets yet, it seemed to be possible to place a -110 2 team +6 points teaser on pinnacle, for a value of +2,25% according to my calculations.
(assuming 74% hitrate for the teams)
What is the maxbet on pinny for a teaser?
EDIT: Seems like this was on two college football teams, maybe they dont give the same offer for NFL. According to the stats availible in College football on spread and pushes, and my calcs it seems like two teams college teasers are not profitable @ -110 for any spreads.Comment -
This is what I got for NFL and College football by assuming 50% winchance on the spread before teasing and then summing up the push frequencies from the stats posted by ganchrow in this forum if anyone is interested.
Value is bet on one team at the given spread and at odds of -110 for a 2 team parley.
Basically, dont do college football parlays on -110 for 2 teams, and teasing +1 to +7 seems to be playable in NFL
Hmm formating error
Code:College Football +0->+6 +1->+7 +1,5->+7,5 +2->+8 +2,5->+8,5 +3->+9 +3,5->+9,5 Value on bet -7,67% -2,85% -0,77% -0,22% -0,62% -5,84% -8,09%
College teasers of +6 between +1,5 and +2,5 seem to be marginally playable at EV for 2 teams, and defeninently playable at +110 for 2 teamsCode:NFL: spread before tease Value PK -1,62% +1 3,15% +1,5 3,43% +2 4,06% +2,5 3,42% +3 -2,02% +3,5 -8,11%
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1st off thanks for giving examples of what a teaser is to us degenerates second off you lost me when you started with the complicated math which involved letters , math should only have #s **** that other bull shit rxover pQ =z wtf ?Comment -
It's only complicated if you have the mental capacity of a fish.Originally posted by thejrichshow85Comment -
Pinnacle will rarely put a game at a number that you can tease successfully. Instead of giving you +2.5, they'll just move the line down to 1 (with odds adjusted) so that you don't fully move across the 7. But they don't completely eliminate +EV teasers and that is all I will say.How do pinny and 5D try to prevent it?Comment -
The 4.5 to 5.5 point dog is a topic of debate.Originally posted by Kingctb27Comment -
Bump for chitz and giggelzComment -
teasers overall are junk bets. only 2 solid home favs at -9.5 teased down to -2.5 is really worth it.............id actually like to find a book that offers "reverse teasers", you give the book 6 pts on two games and all you have to do is win 1 of the 2 gamesComment -
Reverse teasers usually require that you win all games, not just 1.Comment -
I posted this over at sportsforumworld yesterday.
NFL teasers
First of all, let's clear up some misconceptions relating to Basic Strategy (BS) teasers. By definition BS teasers are those NFL 6 point teasers which capture the WHOLE 3 and 7. So they consist of Dogs 1.5 to 2.5 teased up and Favs 7.5 to 8.5 teased down. That's it, all other subsets are considered "Non Basic Strategy" teasers. Much to the chagrin of many so called "pros" I've been a strong advocate of the non-BS variety of teasers for many years. The ones I concentrate on are RD+4.5 to +6 and HF-7 to -9. Below are charts of BS teasers based on 16 years of regular season data and then the last 5 years of results. I then detailed the results of non-BS teasers for comparison.
BS Summary, 16 years regular season only (not playoffs)
RD1.5 to 2.5, 206-79-0, for 72.3%
HD1.5 to 2.5, 148-60-0, for 71.2%
Subtotal Dogs, 354-139-0, for 71.8%
RF7.5 to 8.5, 46-25-0, for 64.8%
HF7.5 to 8.5, 166-59-2, for 73.8%
Subtotal Favs, 212-84-2, for 71.6%
Total all BS Teasers, 566-223-2, for 71.7%
BS Summary, 5 years
RD1.5 to 2.5, 54-18-0, for 75%
HD1.5 to 2.5, 40-23-0, for 63.5%
Subtotal Dogs, 94-41-0, for 69.6%
RF7.5 to 8.5, 21-11-0, for 65.6%
HF7.5 to 8.5, 51-16-0, for 76.1%
Subtotal Favs, 72-27-0, for 72.7%
Total all BS Teasers, 166-68-0, for 70.9%
Before we go further, let's eliminate those RFs (they suck). For the 16 year data, we now have 520-198-2, for 72.4% and 145-57-0, for 71.8% for the 5 years of data. Keep in mind that you need 72.4% to BE at -110. So with the exception of the HFs, the rest of these BS teaser candidates don't show much. Now let's look at my non-BS subsets.
Non-BS, 16 years
HF7 to 9, 364-123-19, for 74.7%
RD4.5 to 6, 326-109-2, for 74.9%
Total all Non-BS Teasers, 690-232-21, for 74.8%
Non-BS, 5 years
HF7 to 9, 113-27-2, for 80.7%
RD4.5 to 6, 102-33-1, for 75.6%
Total all Non-BS Teasers, 215-60-3, for 78.2%
If one wanted to look at just the -7 teased down for the last 5 years, 36-7-2, for 83.7%, and the -9, 26-4-0, for 86.7%.
Keep in mind the books are "holding" on those 7s and 9s to guard against BS exposure. That's fine with me!
There you have it, now which subsets are you going to tease? Just kidding
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Bill, great information here. Thanks for sharing. Are these based on the closing lines? The Giants and Bears were seven point home favorites when the line originally came out. Both teams have been bet down to 6 1/2. Would you still play them even though they have been bet down? or would you pass on this type of game? Is it better to wait right before kick-off and tease the games that qualify at that time? or bet qualifying games when the line first comes out? Thanks again for sharing this information. I'm going to use it this NFL season.Comment -
bill what is your own betting record for +4.5 to +6?Comment -
Trix, it pretty much mirrors the "out of sample" results of 102-33-1 since 2005. I did, however, miss several of these because of line moves I didn't catch or had gone fishing, etc. I also had bet some at +4.5 that closed at +4 and couldn't be included in the subsets database. But generally speaking I try to get most of them. Keep in mind that I'm not a max bettor (like you), so it's easier for me to get down then it would be for someone who does this for a living.Originally posted by trixtrixComment -
Originally posted by Sportsfan800
Yes, the database reflects the closing lines depicted by the Don Best line service.
Generally speaking, I bet the Favs early in the week and the dogs just before post. It doesn't always work out in your favor (I'm sitting with the NYG-1 as the second leg of several teasers from week 4 NFLX). Those HF-6.5 can be useful if the dog ML is better than +241 (read Justins book).
Keep in mind those -6.5 HFs only historically cover a 6 point tease at a 66.4% rate (79-40-0), so be careful.Comment -
Do you take the average closing line of all the books... or use just one book... cuz some of the books still have the line at 7...Originally posted by Bill the cop
Also... the Panthers are just over +240... so you are saying it would be worth it... or should you wait til Sunday to see if the line drops below 240 or continues to move in the Panthers favor...
Basically your numbers are from closing lines... so I should wait til closing lines to be safe?
Thanks in advance...Comment -
King... is that you ?Originally posted by donjuanComment
