What am I missing? Democrat to win election -177

[Sam Odom]

Will it be another 'green shoots' summer that never materialized or an optimistic one?

Iran

Stock Markets

Supreme Court

Race Card

Gays

ect....

[antifoil]

Please send me a few thousand box scores on elections between Obama and Romney

you don't want the box scores. they are not predictive of future results. you need the FIP or SIERA of the election.

[ProfaneReality]

Don't think it's a given Romney gets a boost from the convention... Ron Paul and his cult will cause some problems for him

[BuddyBear]

Actually Obama has met his match. Romney is just as capable and charismatic debating. He made Newt look like a fool, although that's probably not saying a whole lot.


Someone's paying attention.

I suppose Gingrich talking about moon colonies had nothing to do with it.

[No coincidences]

If George Bush can win two presidential elections you better know a sitting president with a 60% disapproval rate and an economy thats worse off than it was is vulnerable.

I do think the electoral map favors Obama but I certainly wouldn't lay -170ish. Maybe -120 would be enticing.

The economy is "worse off than it was" when W. left office? What?

[Mr KLC]

Don't think it's a given Romney gets a boost from the convention... Ron Paul and his cult will cause some problems for him

Unless Rand Paul is the vice presidential nominee. That inspires the Paul backers and the Tea Party.

[Sam Odom]

ObamaCo's anti-capitalist ad campaign is a loser for them... if they continue with it they just might make the election a coin toss

Even the media are asking the WH tough questions about ^ that ^ - Obama is a venture capitalist (Green Industries) with TAX PAYER'S money Vs Bain a PRIVATE firm

[muldoon]

Ron Paul and his cult will cause some problems for him

That is going to make for some interesting poli-tv watching.

[No coincidences]

ObamaCo's anti-capitalist ad campaign is a loser for them... if they continue with it they just might make the election a coin toss

Even the media are asking the WH tough questions about ^ that ^ - Obama is a venture capitalist (Green Industries) with TAX PAYER'S money Vs Bain a PRIVATE firm

You're assuming the vast majority of voters are educated and up on all of this Sammy.

Obama will garner virtually every vote (again) from people who vote for the rock star. May not be in droves like it was the first time around, but still the vast majority of the uneducated voting base in America. Combine that with minorities, and it's not going to happen for Romney. All Romney can hope for is firmly-entrenched apathy among the voters I described, so that they don't go to the polls. Because they're either pro-Obama or absent from the process.

[Sam Odom]

You're assuming the vast majority of voters are educated and up on all of this Sammy.

If obama loses enough of the aging white yuppies (he did well with in '08) some close states could swing - just saying

[thetrinity]

I havent voted for a dem president since ive been eligible in 00, i dont like the republican choice this time around. Good luck gettng people to vote for a mormon, probably will get as much apathy from the bible thumping jesus freaks as the minorities. I think obama was ripe for the taking with the right man, not so much as of now, still got time though and Romney has grown on me personally a bit. Anyone got any stats on minorities eligible to vote in 2012 as compared to 2008? Its gota b higher, just a case of how much higher. Ann romney is popular with women, can she compete with michelle obama tho? Probably not, although obama might not do as well women this time around.

[KingJD31]

lol obama didnt say shit in 08 election he said change to a bunch of brain washed idiots, romney will put him on blast over the economy but I think obama wins cause this country is 90%retard

[thetrinity]

Kings probably right, the need to change the voting requirements if u want romney to win lol.

[mathdotcom]

Obama has brought neither hope nor change

[Waterstpub87]

Race closer then it seems. All the die hard liberals can talk all the shit they want about it being a landslide, but it isn't true. Obama is going after Romney hard personally, which is a sign of it being close. Obama won in 2008 by republicans staying home, youth and minority votes. Republicans are pretty energized, young people and minorities are disillusioned. Economy is still sluggish, Obamacare is still unpopular, many still question Obama's record. Plenty of factors that could tip the election, but I doubt that the democrat campaign machine would be going this hard unless they knew the election was close at this point.

[MoneyLineDawg]

Is there a chance of Ron Paul vice-president? Might be the only way Repubs win.....Dead serious here

Many Ron Paul supporters and fans would actually vote for the Romney/Paul ticket as opposed to either not voting at all or voting libertarian

[mathdotcom]

NO

Means he is not a real candidate but a clown act (even though I like Paul)

[Flashmo]

A normal candidate would be pushed up by this, but Romney can't talk about health care because he implemented Obamacare in Massachusetts. So he just has very little ammunition because of who he is, in my opinion.

(Personally I think the quality of Democratic and Republican candidates has totally tanked since the turn of the century.)

But at the end of the day that is a major blow to Obama, it was supposed to be the jewel in his 2008-2012 crown.

No, Romney can just "evolve" his opinions on healthcare...just like Barry "evolved" on gay marriage

[Flashmo]

I havent voted for a dem president since ive been eligible in 00, i dont like the republican choice this time around. Good luck gettng people to vote for a mormon, probably will get as much apathy from the bible thumping jesus freaks as the minorities. I think obama was ripe for the taking with the right man, not so much as of now, still got time though and Romney has grown on me personally a bit. Anyone got any stats on minorities eligible to vote in 2012 as compared to 2008? Its gota b higher, just a case of how much higher. Ann romney is popular with women, can she compete with michelle obama tho? Probably not, although obama might not do as well women this time around.

Who cares if Romney's a Mormon..Obama is a Black Theologist--just ask Rev Wright

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Mathy, you are spot on. This is short money for a nearly guaranteed bet. The problem is that books will only take very limited action on these bets. Lay whatever you can on it.

[jerry]

Obama was a magic-man in 08. He had an energized, evangelical tribe of believers.

If the economy gets worse, Obama's in trouble. To soon to pull the trigger.

[Yolkix]

Bottom line is things have been shitty with either side in office recently. The way the country is right now there are more die hard republicans then die hard democrats but neither represent that great of a percentage of the voters. End of the day Obama wins because he will be the trendy pick and is a "cool" president that people feel they can relate to. Can't speak on if this is the best price or not, but I am pretty damn confident he will win.

[andywend]

Unless some sort of Obama gay sex scandal is exposed, how does he lose this election? Romney is a way inferior candidate than McCain in terms of appeal (not my personal opinion) and this time Obama has the advantage of incumbency. Obama's record on the economy sucks but how many people don't support him now but did in 2008? I am not sensing any unhappiness with Obama among his 2008 supporters, only Republican dissatisfaction with Romney.

And if Obama dies before the election people will elect Biden out of guilt/sympathy.

What am I missing??

mathy

PS: This is about a bet. Please don't come in with your own personal views of the candidates. Your vote won't affect the line.

MathDotCom, first off if you like Obama @ -177, then I would recommend betting him at Intrade at his current price of -135. If you're willing to go even slightly above market and pay -140/-145, you will get filled for as much action as you could ever want.

Here are my Pro Obama/Anti Obama lists as this election is entirely about him being the incumbent:

Pro Obama List:
1. He is the incumbent

2. Poor economy (many people who are struggling will vote democratic that normally wouldn't due to increased government handouts being available with Obama that might not be available under Romney)

3. Obama will be far more seasoned this time around during the debates with 4 years presidential experience under his belt.

4. Experience no longer an issue with Obama
------------------------------------------------------------------
Anti Obama List:
1. 2010 mid-term election results - Obama and the democrats got thrashed in 2010 after tidal wave victories just 2 short years earlier.

2. Poor economy -Obama's "blame everything on Bush" strategy just isn't going to fly with independent voters as the state of our economy now belongs to him.

3. Presidential debates - 4 years ago, Obama was running against the one politician who knew less about the economy than he did in John McCain. That is NOT the case this time around.

4. ObamaCare - While Romney was the governor when RomneyCare was passed in Massachusetts, RomneyCare was passed with overwhelming majorities and is a totally different piece of legislation as compared to ObamaCare that was shoved down the throats of the American people.

5. S&P cutting our country's financial rating from AAA to AA due to the debt which has EXPLODED under this president.

[jbart28]

Obama is a fuktard who has increased the debt and foodstamp usage more than any president ever. He tried to push his green energy and now we have huge cost increases in food, energy, gas. fuk this socialist, marxist, anti american

[jjgold]

MathDotCom, first off if you like Obama @ -177, then I would recommend betting him at Intrade at his current price of -135. If you're willing to go even slightly above market and pay -140/-145, you will get filled for as much action as you could ever want.

Here are my Pro Obama/Anti Obama lists as this election is entirely about him being the incumbent:

Pro Obama List:
1. He is the incumbent

2. Poor economy (many people who are struggling will vote democratic that normally wouldn't due to increased government handouts being available with Obama that might not be available under Romney)

3. Obama will be far more seasoned this time around during the debates with 4 years presidential experience under his belt.

4. Experience no longer an issue with Obama
------------------------------------------------------------------
Anti Obama List:
1. 2010 mid-term election results - Obama and the democrats got thrashed in 2010 after tidal wave victories just 2 short years earlier.

2. Poor economy -Obama's "blame everything on Bush" strategy just isn't going to fly with independent voters as the state of our economy now belongs to him.

3. Presidential debates - 4 years ago, Obama was running against the one politician who knew less about the economy than he did in John McCain. That is NOT the case this time around.

4. ObamaCare - While Romney was the governor when RomneyCare was passed in Massachusetts, RomneyCare was passed with overwhelming majorities and is a totally different piece of legislation as compared to ObamaCare that was shoved down the throats of the American people.

5. S&P cutting our country's financial rating from AAA to AA due to the debt which has EXPLODED under this president.

What can you bet there $100???

Mathy bets 10k and up..that place is not for him

[alling]

What your missing is something called VALUE. With the economy as weak as it is coupled with Obamas low approval rating means clearly the VALUE is with Romney. VALUE is gambling 101. Google VALUE and gambling to get more details if you still don't understand what VALUE is.

[rkelly110]

Value is being on the right side of the bet.

Hedge. Betting Romney with high odds early and Obama late will give the best value.

[mmaed]

Anyone else notice that bain capital gave almost four million dollars to barack obamas campaign yet obama constantly talks shit about them?

[mathdotcom]

What can you bet there $100???

Mathy bets 10k and up..that place is not for him

$10,000 limits at Pinnacle

How much at InTrade?

[King Mayan]

Obama is a fuktard who has increased the debt and foodstamp usage more than any president ever. He tried to push his green energy and now we have huge cost increases in food, energy, gas. fuk this socialist, marxist, anti american

[thetrinity]

Who cares if Romney's a Mormon..Obama is a Black Theologist--just ask Rev Wright

the good reverend couldnt even keep the white voters away in 08, hes been swept under the rug this time around. religion is a non issue to me at least.

[thetrinity]

obama obviously won the younger voters in 2008, i was 26 at the time and one of the few my age that i knew who voted mccain, although i must admit i was close to taking obama or not even voting. ill be 30 this time around, and i dont see the same support from this group whos burdened with student loan and is underemployed or maybe even unemployed. the magic of the spectacle has worn off. i still have a hard time seeing romney win this, should be more like obama -200 IMO.

[19th Hole]

Anyone else notice that bain capital gave almost four million dollars to barack obamas campaign yet obama constantly talks shit about them?

Playing both sides of the street.

[19th Hole]

Obama is a fuktard who has increased the debt and foodstamp usage more than any president ever. He tried to push his green energy and now we have huge cost increases in food, energy, gas. fuk this socialist, marxist, anti american

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Classic numbskullery.

[big0mar]

Won't have to wait until September.

When the courts rule against Obamacare next month, it'll give Romney a lot of momentum and push the price.

You mean 40M people finding out they won't get health insurance will help Romney???