What am I missing? Democrat to win election -177

[mathdotcom]

Unless some sort of Obama gay sex scandal is exposed, how does he lose this election? Romney is a way inferior candidate than McCain in terms of appeal (not my personal opinion) and this time Obama has the advantage of incumbency. Obama's record on the economy sucks but how many people don't support him now but did in 2008? I am not sensing any unhappiness with Obama among his 2008 supporters, only Republican dissatisfaction with Romney.

And if Obama dies before the election people will elect Biden out of guilt/sympathy.

What am I missing??

mathy

PS: This is about a bet. Please don't come in with your own personal views of the candidates. Your vote won't affect the line.

[SBR Lou]

If you think that has value, wait for it to drop closer to the election.

[mathdotcom]

I don't see Romney out-performing Obama on any debates, and I don't see Obama putting his foot in his mouth more than Romney.

How will line have better value in September?

[No coincidences]

Careful. All of the SBR (fill in the blank name) Republicans and Sammy Odom are in full-fledged denial about this and they might take their anger out on your account.

[No coincidences]

I listened to a die-hard Republican at work the other day explain to a co-worker for 15 minutes how/why Obama has no chance and Romney will win in a landslide.

It's amazing how delusional some people are. I'm not an Obama supporter in any way, shape or form, but let's get real here guys.

[muldoon]

I don't see Romney out-performing Obama on any debates, and I don't see Obama putting his foot in his mouth more than Romney.

How will line have better value in September?

Won't have to wait until September.

When the courts rule against Obamacare next month, it'll give Romney a lot of momentum and push the price.

[SBR Lou]

I don't see Romney out-performing Obama on any debates, and I don't see Obama putting his foot in his mouth more than Romney.

How will line have better value in September?

Actually Obama has met his match. Romney is just as capable and charismatic debating. He made Newt look like a fool, although that's probably not saying a whole lot.

Won't have to wait until September.

When the courts rule against Obamacare next month, it'll give Romney a lot of momentum and push the price.

Someone's paying attention.

[ebbearsfb1]

I listened to a die-hard Republican at work the other day explain to a co-worker for 15 minutes how/why Obama has no chance and Romney will win in a landslide.

It's amazing how delusional some people are. I'm not an Obama supporter in any way, shape or form, but let's get real here guys.

Coin is 100% spot on.. sammy odom dudley and all the republicans might shyt...

[mathdotcom]

Won't have to wait until September.

When the courts rule against Obamacare next month, it'll give Romney a lot of momentum and push the price.

A normal candidate would be pushed up by this, but Romney can't talk about health care because he implemented Obamacare in Massachusetts. So he just has very little ammunition because of who he is, in my opinion.

(Personally I think the quality of Democratic and Republican candidates has totally tanked since the turn of the century.)

But at the end of the day that is a major blow to Obama, it was supposed to be the jewel in his 2008-2012 crown.

[Sam Odom]

Sammy Odom are in full-fledged denial about this and they might take their anger out on your account.

Sammy has NEVER said Obama will lose... I would like to see him lose tho

I may bet an Obama win right after the GOP convention

[mathdotcom]

Thanks for your insights.

If Obamacare struck down, do you think Democrat moves to -120?? What if Obamacare is upheld? Moves to -250?

[Sam Odom]

Romney can't talk about health care because he implemented Obamacare in Massachusetts.

what is good for a goose is NOT good for the gander - In this case anyhow

[k13]

Line was lower a few weeks ago. I have family members who want to make a bet on this and they've never gambled once in their life.

[TheMoneyShot]

Gambling on politics... it's the same as gambling on a NBA Game...

[Mr KLC]

A normal candidate would be pushed up by this, but Romney can't talk about health care because he implemented Obamacare in Massachusetts. So he just has very little ammunition because of who he is, in my opinion.

(Personally I think the quality of Democratic and Republican candidates has totally tanked since the turn of the century.)

But at the end of the day that is a major blow to Obama, it was supposed to be the jewel in his 2008-2012 crown.

Romney has already explained a valid argument about "state's rights", and the unconstitutionality of the federal government forcing you to get a product or pay a penalty/tax.

[frogsrangers]

I am a conservative who opposes Obama on everything but I think Mitt Romney is a terrible candidate that won't win. The Obama machine is going to pull out all the stops to make sure they win, no matter how nasty/despicable it is. They don't call him Teflon Obama for no reason. He could be caught doing a 5 year old boy on live TV and the media would still have his back and spin things in his favor. Nothing will stick to Obama and the media will do his bidding. I think the line is bettable now and will only trend towards Obama as things go forward because his attacks will be carried out and destroy Romney.

The GOP will take the senate and house though.

[muldoon]

When you're looking at billions in advertising, you will NOT see an election decided in the summer. It'll tighten up, you'll get a better price.

[mathdotcom]

Romney has already explained a valid argument about "state's rights", and the unconstitutionality of the federal government forcing you to get a product or pay a penalty/tax.

And I agree with this but 99% of Democrats will fall for it when Obama says 'How can R criticize me on Obamacare when he did exactly that in Massachusetts?'

[Mr KLC]

Thanks for your insights.

If Obamacare struck down, do you think Democrat moves to -120?? What if Obamacare is upheld? Moves to -250?

I think it goes down either way. If the Supreme Court somehow backs it, the conservative base will work stronger to get majorities in the House and Senate, along with the White House, because that will be needed to try and abolish it before it is fully implemented in 2014.

[manny24]

holy balls i hope you are not a platinum politics handicapper too or this country is fukked.

[muldoon]

They don't call him Teflon Obama for no reason.

I can honestly say I've never heard anyone (until now) call him that.

[antifoil]

you are the one that is viewed on this site as a person that can analyze data to come up with a value on betting lines.


not sure why you are asking people in player talk about this.

[boeing power]

Unless some sort of Obama gay sex scandal is exposed, how does he lose this election? Romney is a way inferior candidate than McCain in terms of appeal (not my personal opinion) and this time Obama has the advantage of incumbency. Obama's record on the economy sucks but how many people don't support him now but did in 2008? I am not sensing any unhappiness with Obama among his 2008 supporters, only Republican dissatisfaction with Romney.

And if Obama dies before the election people will elect Biden out of guilt/sympathy.

What am I missing??

mathy

PS: This is about a bet. Please don't come in with your own personal views of the candidates. Your vote won't affect the line.

Minorities Voted last election in record numbers.

If they don't show up this time Obama will lose.

[Mr KLC]

And I agree with this but 99% of Democrats will fall for it when Obama says 'How can R criticize me on Obamacare when he did exactly that in Massachusetts?'

Unfortunately, I have to agree with you on that point. At that point, it will pretty much come down to how energized the progressive base is. After the 2010 elections, I don't see a lot of "hope" for Obama.

[mathdotcom]

May have to lay off. Could be a big trap.

Minorities surely still prefer Obama but he hasn't done anything for them so they are probably more indifferent than anything now.

Thanks posters

Will be PASSING for now

[mathdotcom]

you are the one that is viewed on this site as a person that can analyze data to come up with a value on betting lines.


not sure why you are asking people in player talk about this.

Please send me a few thousand box scores on elections between Obama and Romney

[frogsrangers]

When you're looking at billions in advertising, you will NOT see an election decided in the summer. It'll tighten up, you'll get a better price.

Bull, every attack Obama launches against Romney will stick and every attack Romney launches against Obama will fail.

Why? The media. The media controls the narrative, so they will make sure they play up every Obama attack against Romney and keep it in the headlines and spin it in Obama's favor. Any Romney attack will be immediately downplayed and discredited, swept under the rug, and spun in Obama's favor and then they will turn against Romney for being "going negative" and praise Obama for being the adult in the room.

This will be 1996 all over again, incumbent democrat beats boring establishment moderate Republican.

[rkelly110]

IDK, maybe it's just me. The difference between 'bama and Mitt is zero.

I do know the Repubs caused all kinds of shit in 'bama's term. I'm not
playing their little childish games. Any Repub incumbent on the ballot
will not get my vote come Nov.

[Boscoe]

line will be around even money (at the very least) after gop convention. no reason to bet this now.

[No coincidences]

Actually Obama has met his match. Romney is just as capable and charismatic debating. He made Newt look like a fool, although that's probably not saying a whole lot.


Someone's paying attention.

With all due respect Lou, give me a break.

I'll ask you the same thing about Mitt that I asked about Newt: will any minorities vote for him? Exactly.

[jjgold]

Well if white college kids vote for Obama like last time he wins easy

Does anyone realize these same white kids that vote for Obama will do nothing for them

[Boscoe]

here is intrade's history for the 2008 election. see that tiny moment where mccain was favored? that was right after the gop convention.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/intradeTV/

[ProfaneReality]

All of the republicans on the site, come here to vent, they know they are dead in the water, that's why none of them will put their money where their mouth is.

I will be calling Walker out soon with another bet offer.... and he will backpedal faster than Prime time.

[SBR_John]

If George Bush can win two presidential elections you better know a sitting president with a 60% disapproval rate and an economy thats worse off than it was is vulnerable.

I do think the electoral map favors Obama but I certainly wouldn't lay -170ish. Maybe -120 would be enticing.

[19th Hole]

Those who said wait until the convention
are exactly correct...IMHO.
The challenger from either party gets a bounce coming out of their
respective conventions. If you think that Obama may win ...Wager on
him after the Republican convention.