Saturday Breaking :: Romney over the margin of error :: Leading Obama by 5%

[Sam Odom]

White House in SHOCK

[milwaukee mike]

obama will win

the rest of this is all theatrics

[rm18]

Nobody will vote for Obama, we want to go back to blaming the white man.

[Sam Odom]

obama will win

Probably - BUT

Depends on Jobs & Economy in the Fall of this year

BTW-- I suspect Romney will climb another point or two by Monday. Team Obama took a bad hit Thursday/Friday with the attack on Romney's wife

[RoadDog]

Not to get off subject, but more importantly, Milwaukee Mike, you really think Sakara has a shot at winning tonight? You putting $ on him?

[ProfaneReality]

Saloon

[rm18]

we can bet on elections no saloon

[Carseller4]

Getting out of the Republican primaries is going to work wonders for Romney.

Republicans and Independents now have a clear choice.

[Sam Odom]

we can bet on elections no saloon

Obama backers SBR Sportsbook SPECIAL

[TheMoneyShot]

If gas prices don't mysterious drop to under $3.00 a gallon... by September/October. Obama has no chance. And he knows this.

[Sam Odom]

Getting out of the Republican primaries is going to work wonders for Romney.

Republicans and Independents now have a clear choice.

Obama's 'Angry Black Man' impersonation aint working for him. He would do better with his smooth brotha persona he used in 2008

[King Mayan]

7 months away..

What a dumb old man.

[Sam Odom]

If gas prices don't mysterious drop to under $3.00 a gallon... by September/October. Obama has no chance. And he knows this.

the 'Middle East' needs to stabilize to aid Obama on ^ that ^

I dont see that happening

[SBR_John]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Personally I think the USAToday is the best poll in this group. It has Obama up 4 points.

[Sam Odom]

John , tracking polls are real fluid... Like the one in OP

That USA poll is 3 weeks old

[King Mayan]

I cant wait until obama wins this november, maybe this old man will be so embarrased he'll start posting his sheep-indunced threads in the P/E forum..

[jgray]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

Personally I think the USAToday is the best poll in this group. It has Obama up 4 points.

Why the respect for the USA Today poll?

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Obama -190 at betfair:

http://politicszone.betfair.com/zone?action=large_chart&exch_id=1&mkt_id=21311313&pcts=1

[Shaudius]

White House in SHOCK

For the love of all that is holy please stop referencing Rasmussen polls. I will repeat this again for those not paying attention.

You do realize that Rasmussen doesn't poll people who use cell phones, right? Landline only. Know a lot of Obama supporters who have landlines these days? You know how he says that he makes up for this, by using randomized internet surveys that he says are taken across demographics. Gee, I wonder how he gets these people for these internet surveys, self selection bias much. In other words, Rasmussen polls are complete bullshit.

[SBR Lou]

BTW-- I suspect Romney will climb another point or two by Monday. Team Obama took a bad hit Thursday/Friday with the attack on Romney's wife

Obama's 'Angry Black Man' impersonation aint working for him. He would do better with his smooth brotha persona he used in 2008

Agreed. He needs to start babbling about change again, was in fact a smoother delivery than some of the jabs he's beginning to work in.

[Carseller4]

Prediction: Zimmerman not guilty verdict reached a couple days before election. Blacks will be to busy rioting to vote. Riots escalate after Obama loses a couple of days later.

[Sam Odom]

For the love of all that is holy please stop referencing Rasmussen polls.

Fordham University has rated the National Polls from the 2008 Campaign's final Presidential Election results. The 23 polls rated averaged giving Obama a 7.52% victory margin, and the actual victory margin was 6.15%. The top polls were Rasmussen and Pew tied for first.

Here is their list:

1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)


White House in SHOCK

[Sam Odom]

Agreed. He needs to start babbling about change again, was in fact a smoother delivery than some of the jabs he's beginning to work in.

His Rose Garden tirade against the US Supreme Court hurt him badly in the eyes of Indies - So much for him being a 'Constitutional Scholar'

[milwaukee mike]

Not to get off subject, but more importantly, Milwaukee Mike, you really think Sakara has a shot at winning tonight? You putting $ on him?

not a big lean but on it at +340

[d2bets]

Congrats on finding some outlier poll. Odds haven't budged at intrade.

[Sam Odom]

Congrats on finding some outlier poll.

see post #22

other Polls tracking Mittens on the rise

[SBR_John]

So far the odds are not tracking the recent polls. You have to love that if you are a Obama guy.

Now that the Republican primary is a forgone conclusion we can start the real campaign. Obama defeated McCain on a mainstream moderate platform to change Washington politics. I guess he succeeded because its never been worse. This time around he will not be able to blame Bush or claim he is the guy of change. He is vulnerable and far more left than a lot of moderates were expecting. Plus, the Republicans have wheeled out a moderate and that will have a lot of swing voters who voted Obama last time to reconsider. By mid July or sooner this will be a Pick'em.

[Shaudius]

Fordham University has rated the National Polls from the 2008 Campaign's final Presidential Election results. The 23 polls rated averaged giving Obama a 7.52% victory margin, and the actual victory margin was 6.15%. The top polls were Rasmussen and Pew tied for first.

Here is their list:

1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)


White House in SHOCK

I'm not sure what results from 2008 prove. 30% of adults now do not have landlines, so his sample is right off the bat eliminating 30% of people, that he purports to make up by using internet surveys, which honestly, is that a joke? In 2004 the figure was 3.4% that were cell phone only.

I'm not saying that Rasmussen was not in the past accurate(although he was on average 4.2% biased in favor of Republican candidates in 2010), what I am saying is that how can you 4 years from 2008 when landline versus cell phone usage has insanely shifted from landline to cell phone still be using the same method and expecting the results to be accurate at all.

Rasmussen also only conducts their polls between 5 pm and 9 pm on weeknights and they only speak to the first person they get on the line.

For a good read on this I suggest:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/07/is-poll-scientific-if-it-excludes-more.html

Honestly in this day and age of large amounts of cell phone use I would trust a Fox News' poll(which is not actually conducted by Fox News) much more than I would trust an effectively landline only poll like Rasmussen.

[Sam Odom]

I'm not saying that Rasmussen was not in the past accurate...

Well... because you CANNOT in good conscience - (past = last presidential cycle) the flipside is you expect a less accurate 2008 poll to be more believable 3 years later than the #1

But... We will see. Politically we have a long long time before Nov 2012

[LVHerbie]

http://electoral-vote.com/

[Shaudius]

Also btw, Romney leading Obama by 5% is not outside of the margin of error of the poll because margin of error is +/-X, unless the poll's margin of error is less than 2.5% than a 5% lead is not outside of it. Rasmussen reports a +/-3% margin of error for his sample of 1,500 LVs, but the daily tracking is taken with three day rolling average surveys of 500 LVs. The 500 LV count is not as accurate as the 1,500 but pretending that aggregating 3 500 LV polls is the same as one 1,500 LV poll, it is it would mean that the real numbers say that Romney is winning by as many as 11% and losing by as much as 1%. So he is not winning outside the margin of error.

[Sam Odom]

we have baseball games going for GOD SAKES

BTW-- margin of error could be Mit by +9

[Shaudius]

we have baseball games going for GOD SAKES

BTW-- margin of error could be Mit by +9

If the margin of error is +/-3% then the radius of error is 6%, 6% up or 6% down, So if the reported figure is +5% then the 95% confidence range is +11% to -1%.

This is because polls don't just have one variable they have two. So say I take a poll, one candidate, candidate X, receives 50% and the other candidate, candidate Y, receives 40%, if the margin of error is +/-3% then the candidates true number with 95% confidence would be 53% to 47%, on the other hand the candidate who receives 40% could be 43% to 37%

So you would say, that poll says candidate X is winning by 10%, but he could be winning 53% to 37% or he could be winning 47% to 43%, so the most with 95% confidence you can say candidate X could be winning by is 16%, and the least is 4% +/-6% either way.

Similarly in our scenario Romney is winning by 5%, so 6% up, 11%, 6% down -1%, so within the true margin of error for a two candidate race, he could still statistically be losing with 95% confidence within the margin of error for a two candidate poll, so he is not winning outside what the margin of error means for statistic purposes.

[SBR_John]

http://electoral-vote.com/

North Carolina is in the barely demo camp? Georgia is barely Republican? hmmm

[Ghenghis Kahn]

lol do you really believe you still have a choice? your votes won't matter, this whole thing is set up so that obama gets re-elected. just watch...