12/31 soccer picks:
Manchester United -714 risk $14.28
Chelsea +0 -1429 risk $14.29
Manchester United -714 risk $14.28
Chelsea +0 -1429 risk $14.29
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Comment -
12/31 picks:
NCAAB; Georgetown -1100 risk $22
Cleveland St -900 risk $18
Michigan State -330 risk $33
California -250 risk $30
Arizona -650 risk $32.50
Colorado -1450 risk $29
Stanford -330 risk $33
UNLV -700 risk $14
Memphis -675 risk $27
Bonus picks:
NCAAB: Western Carolina +1100 risk $2
Illinois +255 risk $4
Wisc-Green Bay +240 risk $4
Tenn-Martin +265 risk $3
NBA: Phoenix +740 risk $2
Utah +1400 risk 42Comment -
A good day ruined by some dumb soccer picks.
Results & comments on games 12/31:
Soccer: Manchester United -714 risk $14.28 Loss, closing line unchanged
Chelsea +0 -1429 risk $14.29 Loss, closing line unchanged
NCAAB: Georgetown -1100 risk $22 Won, closing line unchanged, didn't cover
Cleveland St -900 risk $18 Loss, closing line unchanged
Michigan State -330 risk $33 Won, beat closing line, covered
California -250 risk $30 Won, closing line basically unchanged (got in 5¢ worse), covered
Arizona -650 risk $32.50 Won, got in worse than closing line, covered
Colorado -1450 risk $29 Won, got in worse than closing line, covered
Stanford -330 risk $33 Won, closing line unchanged, covered (by 0.5)
UNLV -700 risk $14 Won, beat closing line, didn't cover
Memphis -675 risk $27 Won, closing line basically unchanged, didn't cover
Official record: 8-3 +$0.43 (8-1 +$29 on basketball)
For comparison only: 5-4 against spread, 2-2-7 on beating close
Allin results:
Colorado -1450 risk $117.11 Won
1-0 +$8.08
Bonus plays (big dogs):
NCAAB: Western Carolina +1100 risk $2 Loss, closing line unchanged, didn't cover
Illinois +255 risk $4 Loss, closing line basically unchanged (got in 5¢ better), didn't cover
Wisc-Green Bay +240 risk $4 Loss, got in slightly worse than closing line, covered
Tenn-Martin +265 risk $3 Loss, closing line unchanged, didn't cover
NBA: Phoenix +740 risk $2 Loss, significantly beat closing line, covered
Utah +1400 risk $2 Loss, significantly beat closing line, didn't cover (by 0.5)
Bonus record: 0-5 -$15
For comparison only: 2-3 against spread, 2-1-2 on beating closeComment -
Hey thad, I had a point bet request but your PMs are full, could you PM me before games start if you get the chance.
ThanksComment -
1/1 picks:
NCAAB: Michigan -260 risk $15.60
Northwestern -370 risk $25.90
Bonus picks:
NBA: Charlotte +1775 risk $1
Memphis +290 risk $4
NFL: Tampa Bay +370 risk $4
Cleveland +275 risk $5
Buffalo +460 risk $3Comment -
Results & comments on games 1/1:
NCAAB: Michigan -260 risk $15.60 Won, closing line unchanged, didn't cover
Northwestern -370 risk $25.90 Won, got in worse than closing line, covered
Official record: 2-0 +$13
For comparison only: 1-1 against spread, 0-1-1 on beating close
Bonus plays (big dogs):
NBA: Charlotte +1775 risk $1 Loss, beat closing line, didn't cover
Memphis +290 risk $4 Loss, significantly beat closing line, didn't cover; leave it to me to beat the close by enough to be 20¢ arb on a 7 point dog that loses by 40
NFL: Tampa Bay +370 risk $4 Loss, got in worse than closing line, didn't cover; line moved against me against Detroit's surprise loss
Cleveland +275 risk $5 Loss, got in slightly worse than closing line, covered
Buffalo +460 risk $3 Loss, got in slightly worse than closing line, didn't cover; How the **** does a team jump out to a 21-0 lead and lose 49-21?
Bonus record: 0-5 -$17
For comparison only: 1-4 against spread, 2-3 on beating closeComment -
Results to date
Official picks:
12/20: 5-0 +$19
12/21: 5-1 -$12.50
12/22: 11-2 +$0
12/23: 3-0 +$12
12/24: 1-1 -$19
12/25: 1-0 +$4
12/26: 2-1 -$7.6
12/27: 1-0 +$5
12/28: 2-0 +$11
12/29: 5-3 -$24.2
12/30: 10-1 +$35
12/31: 8-3 +$0.43
1/1: 2-0 +$13
Official record: 56-12 +$36.13
For comparison only: 26-32-2 against spread, 26-19-23 on beating close
Expected record if all lines reflected 0 EV: 56.98-11.02
Expected record by chance (approx): 55.70-12.30
By sport:
NCAAB: 50-8 +$85.30
Soccer: 5-3 -$29.67
NFL: 0-1 -$23.50
NBA: 1-0 +$4
Current Bankroll: $336.13
Allin results:
12/20: 1-0 +$2.86
12/21: 1-0 +$4.03
12/22: 1-0 +$2.14
12/28: 1-0 +$0.26
12/29: 2-0 +$7.82
12/30: 1-0 +$8.08
Current Bankroll: $125.19
Bonus plays (big dogs):
12/20: 0-1 -$2
12/21: 1-1 +$8
12/22: 0-3 -$9
12/23: 0-1 -$4
12/24: 0-3 -$15
12/28: 0-6 -$18
12/29: 1-3 +$7.50
12/30: 0-3 -$8
12/31: 0-5 -$15
1/1: 0-5 -$17
Bonus Record: 2-31 -$80
For comparison: 16-17 against spread, 12-14-7 on beating close
Comments:
If one avoided my dumb soccer picks, they'd be up quite nicely. Even with those picks, I'm doing pretty well on my official pick. I have done rather poorly ATS, but I didn't make the picks for ATS purposes. A better comparison is my beating the closing line record, which I have done quite well at.
Astute readers will notice my record is barely better than chance, but my profit is not. This is because I've done poorly on my small bets (which were small due to low confidence) and well on my large bets. Of course the bad soccer picks were a big part of that.
I have also done atrociously bad on the "bonus picks". In fact if one only faded my bonus picks, they'd be doing as well or better than my official picks. Luckily for me these are bonus picks and thus don't count against my official record. If they continue to be embarrassingly bad, I might drop them.
ThaddeusComment -
1/2/12 Tennis pick:
Mardy Fish -1667 risk $16.67Comment -
I originally typed this up about 11:45 but apparently it didn't actually post. Only 1 game has started thus far (George Mason), so hopefully no one minds...
1/2 picks:
NCAAB: George Mason -2000 risk $30
Northeastern -500 risk $30
VCU -260 risk $26
Long Beach st -860 risk $17.20
UC Riverside -230 risk $27.60
Manhattan -675 risk $33.75
Wake Forest -230 risk $27.60
NBA: Boston -800 risk $16
Allin:
George Mason -2000 risk $125.19
Bonus plays:
NCAAB: Miami OH +1675 risk $2
Pacific +568 risk $4
NBA: Atlanta +515 risk $3
New Orleans +260 risk $5Comment -
1/3 tennis & soccer picks:
Real Madrid -679 risk $13.58
Rafael Nadal -909 risk $18.18
Roger Federer -667 risk $20.01Comment -
those soccer games from new years really distorted your numbers but this experiment is up at the moment. nice job here- interesting stuff.Comment -
1/4/12 picks:
Soccer: Barcelona -1000 risk $20
NCAAB: Central Florida -260 risk $26
Drexel -5000 risk $25
Florida State -750 risk $22.50
VCU -325 risk $32.50
Memphis -335 risk $33.50
Missouri St -335 risk $33.50
N Iowa -230 risk $23
Syracuse -1100 risk $22
Minnesota -360 risk $25.20
Murray St -1750 risk $35
NBA: Orlando -1150 risk $23
San Antonio -335 risk $26.80
Allin play:
Murray St -1750
Bonus picks:
NCAAB: UNC-Wilm +230 risk $10
Kansas State +395 risk $5
Evansville +575 risk $3
UTEP +600 risk $2
NBA: New Jersey +1400 risk $1
Charlotte +700 risk $3
Phoenix +340 risk $3
Houston +290 risk $8Comment -
I REALLY like you are taking shots on dogs for this experiment. What I DON'T like is you have too much exposure on both favs and dogs, IMO. Say there's 3 dogs you like, take 2. Sure, maybe the 3rd will be the ONLY one that hits, but on dog days, you will hit HUGE. I find TONS of these situations in the NFL. The trick is, to not play the 'flat bet' game - it never works. Yes, some good fortune happens, but again, like my ML favorite philosophy, you want to limit your exposure on dogs, also. That's just the basic trick - getting it in good and taking the big hit on favorites or reaping a huge win off of dogs. I think the less plays you do, with more work focused on those plays handicapping, you can toss out the 'anomaly' by only a few percentage points - but those percentages are everything in playing the ML. I understand that you will brick some... But when playing favorites, you have no room to brick one, so you have to learn how to manage your money accordingly (it's a WHOLE other ballgame to discuss to grow your roll that way, but it's worked for me for a pretty decent amount of time, at least).
One other point, there's one trend from your plays, and that's your "all in" plays.
What I'm seeing already proves my point on favorites, although the sample set is tiny vs my years of playing. Why not scale it back a bit and just play your 'all in' plays at not such an aggressive pace? You will definitely come out ahead, so long as you avoid the 'traps', which are inevitable. Sure, you can pick 'winners' on the ML, but I find is to find 'that one', do your work, and go for it, without exposing yourself to going bust, or at least giving yourself a great opportunity of doing what we all play for, and that's growing your roll. But, to be fair, those are HUGE odds to be paying off to make nothing. I'd look for -300 to -800ish to find that 'all in' play.
Dunno, I've spent way too much time focused on the ML, since it requires less time to cap than totals/sides, I just do it as a hobby now. I hope you keep growing the roll. I love the aggression. But I like growth over aggression. Keep it goin, man, I'll keep reading. It's fun. There definitely is something to playing the ML, but it's difficult and takes, IMO, more discipline. All I can say is, there is no outcome that is 100% ever. When you think that, you're already dead.Comment -
GL with this, Thad. I bet a lot of bridge jumpers myself, particularly on fights. I love betting these in B&M books because the ticket writer is always in disbelief. They can't seem to wrap their heads around the fact that someone would want to lay -1200, and have all sorts of "advice" for me.Comment -
1/5/12 picks:
NCAAB: Indiana -340 risk $34
Washington St -750 risk $22.50
UC Davidson -600 risk $30
St. Peter's -330 risk $26.40
S Dakota St -250 risk $25
Bonus picks:
NCAAB: Illinois Chicago +1450 risk $1
Arizona St +575 risk $4
Western Illinois +320 risk $7
N Dakota St +270 risk $5Comment -
I will try to update my record to date tonight....
1/6/12 picks:
NBA: Philadelphia -500 risk $35
Toronto -245 risk $29.40
Boston -230 risk $23
Bonus picks:
NCAAB: Marist +265 risk $5Comment -
1-7-12 soccer picks:
Real Madrid ML -1250 risk $12.50
Inter Milan +0 -714 risk $14.28Comment -
1/7/12 picks:
NCAAB: Harvard -4750 risk $47.50
Cleveland St -1100 risk $27.50
St. Joesph's -475 risk $28.50
Ohio State -725 risk $21.75
Wichita St -675 risk $33.75
Syracuse -540 risk $37.80
Kentucky -4750 risk $47.50
Colorado -230 risk $23
Louisville -800 risk $28
Virginia -280 risk $33.60
BYU -1450 risk $29
Florida Intl -375 risk $37.50
Midd Tenn St -600 risk $39
New Mexico St -265 risk $26.50
Creighton -700 risk $28
Cal Poly SLO -295 risk $29.50
E Kentucky -240 risk $31.20
Murray State -225 risk $36
NBA: Miami -415 risk $20.75
Allin picks:
Harvard -4750
BYU -1450
Bonus picks:
NCAAB: Auburn +1350 risk $2
Oklahoma +270 risk $5
Evansville +335 risk $5
W Michigan +248 risk $7
Arizona St +600 risk $5
SIU Edwardsville +230 risk $5
Morehead St +270 risk $6
NBA: New Orleans +700 risk $2
Milwaukee +525 risk $4
NFL: Detroit +500 risk $5Comment -
1-8-12 picks:
NCAAB: Indiana -275 risk $30.25
Soccer: Barcelona -428 risk $17.12
Bonus picks:
NCAAB: Maryland +525 risk $2
NBA: Sacramento +220 risk $5
NFL: Denver +330 risk $5Comment -
1/9/12 picks
NCAAB: Georgetown -250 risk $30
St. Mary's -2000 risk $30
Wyoming -1900 risk $28.50
NBA: Philadelphia -280 risk $30.80
Atlanta -220 risk $24.20
Chicago -1500 risk $22.50
Allin play:
Wyoming -1900
Bponus plays:
NBA: Charlotte +600 risk $2Comment -
1/10/12 picks:
NCAAB: Michigan State -1100 risk $33
Seton Hall -710 risk $28.40
Missouri State -700 risk $14
Creighton -260 risk $26
NBA: Philadelphia -450 risk $36
Portland -225 risk $29.25
Bonus picks:
NCAAB: Evansville +310 risk $5
NBA: Phoenix +310 risk $5
Golden State +340 risk $4Comment -
So is the experiment officially dead, or just on hold for the moment?Comment
