ThaddeusB's big money line picks/experiment

[mikejamm]

Nice experiment Thad. How are you deciding what sport to play. Are you picking just based solely on the odds, or are you trying out different picks because of some familiarity with that sport or team? NCAA bball record is look'in real good. Soccer looks decent too, I'm with Glitch on the soccer though, just too low scoring and unpredictable, unless you're going with a proven winner like Barca! Will you be adding the NBA to this?

[zacharyj53]

Like the thread, good job keeping us up to date.

[ThaddeusB]

Nice experiment Thad. How are you deciding what sport to play. Are you picking just based solely on the odds, or are you trying out different picks because of some familiarity with that sport or team? NCAA bball record is look'in real good. Soccer looks decent too, I'm with Glitch on the soccer though, just too low scoring and unpredictable, unless you're going with a proven winner like Barca! Will you be adding the NBA to this?

I'm picking games where ever I see value. CBB is both my favorite sport and one of the softest major markets, so that is most likely where the majority of picks will come from. There will be some NBA picks from time to time.

[ThaddeusB]

12/24 picks:
NFL: Baltimore -550 risk $16.50

Bonus picks:
NFL:
Jacksonville +328 risk $5
Miami +420 risk $5
NCAAF: Nevada +280 risk $5

[ThaddeusB]

Merry Christmas everyone!

Results & comments on games 12/24:

NCAAB: Xavier -550 risk $22 Loss, closing line unchanges; lead entire game until Hawaii tied on a last second 3, then lost be 2 in OT
NFL: Baltimore -550 risk $16.50 Won, beat closing line, didn't cover; game was less close than the final score

Official record: 1-1 -$17
For comparison only: 0-2 against spread, 1-0-1 on beating close


Allin results:
No play

Bonus plays (big dogs):
NFL: Jacksonville +328 risk $5 Lost, closing line basically unchanged (2¢ worse), covered
NFL: Miami +420 risk $5 Lost, significant beat closing line, covered; blew 17-0 lead
NCAAF: Nevada +280 risk $5 Lost, beat closing line, covered

Bonus Record: 0-3 -$15
For comparison: 3-0 against spread, 2-0-1 on beating close

[ThaddeusB]

12/25 Pick:

NCAAB: Xavier -750 risk $30

[MysteryMung]

Interesting stuff Thad. Will be keeping am eye on this thanks

[LT Profits]

Merry Christmas everyone!

Results & comments on games 12/24:

NCAAB: NFL: Baltimore -550 risk $16.50 Won, beat closing line, didn't cover; game was less close than the final score

Did Baltimore ML beat closing line? I had Cleveland +12.5 and they closed +10.5, but I know that doesn't mean ML moved same way.

[LT Profits]

OK I see now. Seems you got the ML at its lowest point and it started creeping up again at around 12:15 ET although the spread stayed at 10.5. Nice job!

[ThaddeusB]

OK I see now. Seems you got the ML at its lowest point and it started creeping up again at around 12:15 ET although the spread stayed at 10.5. Nice job!

Yah the ML movement was a bit odd considering the spreads didn't budge.

[ThaddeusB]

Merry Christmas everyone!

Results & comments on games 12/25:

NCAAB: Xavier -750 risk $30 Won, beat closing line, didn't cover

Official record: 1-0 +$4
For comparison only: 0-1 against spread, 1-0 on beating close


Allin results:
No play

Bonus plays (big dogs):
none

[ThaddeusB]

Results to date
(Note: I changed the starting bankroll to $300 to more accurately reflect the wagers placed)

Official picks:
12/20: 5-0 +$19
12/21: 5-1 -$12.50
12/22: 11-2 +$0
12/23: 3-0 +$12
12/24: 1-1 -$19
12/25: 1-0 +$4

Official record: 26-4 +$3.50
For comparison only: 9-15-2 against spread, 14-6-10 on beating close
Expected record if all lines reflected 0 EV: 25.85-4.15
Expected record if all lines were accurate (approx): 25.21-4.79

By sport:
NCAAB: 22-3 +$20.50
Soccer: 3-0 +$6.5
NFL: 0-1 -$23.50

Current Bankroll: $318.50

Allin results:
12/20: 1-0 +$2.86
12/21: 1-0 +$4.03
12/22: 1-0 +$2.14

Current Bankroll: $109.03

Bonus plays (big dogs):
12/20: 0-1 -$2
12/21: 1-1 +$8
12/22: 0-3 -$9
12/23: 0-1 -$4
12/24: 0-3 -$15

Bonus Record: 1-9 -$22
For comparison: 8-2 against spread, 3-5-2 on beating close

[tb1984]

I do alot of ML betting and teasers, so definitely I'll follow this thread.

[ThaddeusB]

12/26 Soccer picks:

Chelsea ML -312 risk $15.60
Manchester United ML -588 risk $17.64

[samserif]

I've been watching moneylines, too. From what I've seen, though, they tend to have worse than expected payouts when dealing with heavy favorites, at least with NCAA BB. Now, I'm basing this on my database of games that I scraped from Covers, and it's quite possible that I have errors and I'm not doing a good job estimating probabilities with the smaller samples you get with big favorites. (There's a hell of a lot more games at +1/-1 than at +20/-20.)

However, I also suspect that books play off the fact that people do a lousy job thinking about probability. If a heavy favorite should be properly valued with a ML of -1000, a book might say "What the hell, let's put it at -1200. Most people who bet at -1000 won't notice or won't care."

I don't think I've ever seen a heavy NCAA BB favorite with a moneyline that was reasonably valued, at least according to my numbers. (And my numbers are usually very close to what 5dimes lists for anything less than +10/-10.) Anyone else notice this? Or do I need to recalculate?

[ThaddeusB]

I've been watching moneylines, too. From what I've seen, though, they tend to have worse than expected payouts when dealing with heavy favorites, at least with NCAA BB. Now, I'm basing this on my database of games that I scraped from Covers, and it's quite possible that I have errors and I'm not doing a good job estimating probabilities with the smaller samples you get with big favorites. (There's a hell of a lot more games at +1/-1 than at +20/-20.)

However, I also suspect that books play off the fact that people do a lousy job thinking about probability. If a heavy favorite should be properly valued with a ML of -1000, a book might say "What the hell, let's put it at -1200. Most people who bet at -1000 won't notice or won't care."

I don't think I've ever seen a heavy NCAA BB favorite with a moneyline that was reasonably valued, at least according to my numbers. (And my numbers are usually very close to what 5dimes lists for anything less than +10/-10.) Anyone else notice this? Or do I need to recalculate?

That (inflated money lines on big favs) is certainly true for most books. However, 5dimes is pretty good about having more fair lines. Also, larger MLs are tied directly to the spread which creates some inefficiency IMO because I don't think all 10 point favorites are equally likely to win.


Additional Pick for today:
Soccer: Gent ML -435 risk $21.75

[ThaddeusB]

Results & comments on games 12/26:

Chelsea ML -312 risk $15.60 Loss, closing line unchanged
Manchester United ML -588 risk $17.64 Won, got in worse than closing line
Soccer: Gent ML -435 risk $21.75 Won, beat closing line

Official record: 2-1 -$7.6
For comparison only: 1-1-1 on beating close

Allin results:
No play

Bonus plays (big dogs):
none

[will2survive]

Thaddeus: I must admit, when it comes to point management, you seem to be the best on the site. It's almost like you're a financial planner

[McBa1n]

Fun thread to follow. I'm mostly a ML player in the NFL and I will say it's a wild ride. My recommendation is to limit your plays per day. When paying expensive odds, you don't want to end the day 2-1 or even 3-1. You want to be undefeated, obviously. But going 2-1 on the ML is a really bad day vs how it would be vs the spread. Just something to think about. How much your book lets you bet is also a factor in this, but I think less plays with more refined picks prevent you from getting hit with the 'upset' of the week most weeks (upsets are inevitable). Anyhow, that's my philosophy. I've had pretty good fortune with it...

Also, finding a good price on the ML is not an exact science. A -400 or more ML favorite in the NFL will fluctuate a LOT. If you're going to play a favorite like that, I recommend getting in early (unless there is something pending, such as a key injury or something). By getting in on the Packers on Sunday night over a day out away from the game, I saved about -250 from the price. That's very significant. You just get a feel for how NFL news happens throughout the week (injury reports, fines, suspensions, etc) and how that will impact the ML. Finding the best time to strike is never easy, but the closer you get to kickoff, the crappier the odds are going to be for you.

Good luck with it, it's a very tough way to play and requires a TON of restraint and discipline.

[sixzero]

I found this thread very interesting. I agree very fun thread to follow. I'll be checking in periodically. Good luck to you.

[Ez Money 77]

I will be following as well. Love it.

[ThaddeusB]

12/27 pick:

NCAAB: Wisconsin -375 risk $18.75

[ThaddeusB]

Results & comments on games 12/27:

NCAAB: Wisconsin -375 risk $18.75 Won, beat closing line, covered

Official record: 1-0 +$5
For comparison only: 1-0 against spread, 1-0 on beating close


Allin results:
No play

Bonus plays (big dogs):
none

[sharlataans]

I did not read the whole thread, but bookies always set higher vigorish on favorites. So long term you have worse chances IMO.

[ThaddeusB]

A like a lot more dogs than favorites today...

12/28 picks:
NCAAB:
Wichita St -730 risk $36.50
Baylor -350 risk $21

Allin play:
NCAAB: UNLV -42000 risk $109.03

Bonus picks:
NCAAB:
Northwestern +1300 risk $3
Seton Hall +1150 risk $2
Indiana +250 risk $4
UMKC +460 risk $4
NBA:
Charlotte +600 risk $3
Utah +800 risk $2

[ThaddeusB]

Results & comments on games 12/28:
NCAAB: Wichita St -730 risk $36.50 Won, beat closing line, covered (by a mile); I considered making this an allin play as I was especially confident in it, but decided those should be slightly >-1000 lines
NCAAB: Baylor -350 risk $21 Won, got in worse than closing line, didn't cover; game came down to final minute

Official record: 2-0 +$11
For comparison only: 1-1 against spread, 1-1 on beating close


Allin results:
NCAAB: UNLV -42000 risk $109.03 Won, easily covered

1-0 +$0.26

Bonus plays (big dogs):
NCAAB:
Northwestern +1300 risk $3 Loss, got in worse than closing line, didn't cover
Seton Hall +1150 risk $2 Loss, beat closing line, didn't cover
Indiana +250 risk $4 Loss, beat closing line, didn't cover
UMKC +460 risk $4 Loss, got in worse than closing line, didn't cover
NBA:
Charlotte +600 risk $3 Loss, got in worse than closing line, covered; lost by 1 on an unsuccessful last second play
Utah +800 risk $2 Loss, got in worse than closing line, didn't cover

Bonus record: 0-6 -$18
For comparison only: 1-5 against spread, 2-4 on beating close


Terrible day for underdog picks

[ThaddeusB]

Results to date

Official picks:
12/20: 5-0 +$19
12/21: 5-1 -$12.50
12/22: 11-2 +$0
12/23: 3-0 +$12
12/24: 1-1 -$19
12/25: 1-0 +$4
12/26: 2-1 -$7.6
12/27: 1-0 +$5
12/28: 2-0 +$11
NCAAB: Wichita St -730 risk $36.50 Won, beat closing line, covered (by a mile); I considered making this an allin play as I was especially confident in it, but decided those should be slightly >-1000 lines
NCAAB: Baylor -350 risk $21 Won, got in worse than closing line, didn't cover; game came down to final minute

Official record:
For comparison only: 1-1 against spread, 1-1 on beating close


Official record: 31-5 +$11.90
For comparison only: 11-16-2 against spread, 17-8-11 on beating close
Expected record if all lines reflected 0 EV: 30.73-5.27
Expected record if all lines were accurate (approx): 29.94-5.86

By sport:
NCAAB: 25-3 +$36.50
Soccer: 5-1 -$1.10
NFL: 0-1 -$23.50

Current Bankroll: $311.90

Allin results:
12/20: 1-0 +$2.86
12/21: 1-0 +$4.03
12/22: 1-0 +$2.14
12/28: 1-0 +$0.26

Current Bankroll: $109.29

Bonus plays (big dogs):
12/20: 0-1 -$2
12/21: 1-1 +$8
12/22: 0-3 -$9
12/23: 0-1 -$4
12/24: 0-3 -$15
12/28: 0-6 -$18

Bonus Record: 1-15 -$40
For comparison: 9-7 against spread, 5-9-2 on beating close



Comments:
As anyone can plainly see, I've done quite well on NCAAB. I've also placed far more of these bets than others. Hopefully this isn't a coincidence. I've beat the closer twice as often as I've lost to it. For those who believe in the efficiency of the closing line, that fact is perhaps more relevant than my actual record.

Also plain to see is that I've had horrible luck on underdogs. I've beaten the spread consistently, but only manged to win 1 game outright. (And looking at the actual results I'm like 0-4 on games that game down to the final minute.)

[ThaddeusB]

12/29 picks:
NCAAB:
Florida -500 risk $25
Miami OH -800 risk $24
Evansville -230 risk $25.3
North Texas -260 risk $18.20
Marquette -380 risk $19
California -600 risk $36
Stanford -265 risk $29.15
Colorado St -500 risk $35

Allin play:
None

Bonus picks:
NCAAB:
Illinois Chicago +275 risk $6
Stetson +1200 risk $2
Eastern Michigan +650 risk $3

[ThaddeusB]

Bonus play:
NCAAF: Washington +335 risk $4

[Glitch]

i would imagine as far as applicable usage is concerned- you would want to set a target of when you have played the highly favorable side of the odds (as far as risk is concerned) enough.

after you turn 300 into 350 is that enough at those all-in tries. i know 26 cents at a time would not be a good way to get even there. even though that would likely be the surest path.

[Ez Money 77]

Allin results:
NCAAB: UNLV -42000 risk $109.03 Won, easily covered

1-0 +$0.26

Can I throw my 26 cents in. I love this thread but really maybe you should have a cap on that all in bet. To risk it all to win 26 cents doesnt seem very good. I know it is like a 99.99999% winner but even so, you are gonna win $.26 Maybe cap it at a -2500 line or something not -42,000. That just seems silly to me. I know this is your thing but I am just making a little suggestion. I do love this thread none the less.

[a4u2fear]

NBA should be a good source of lines for this, a lot of teams rarely lose at home that are top tier teams

[ThaddeusB]

I am not surprised by the flack from taking a -42000 line yesterday. Let me explain: I am taking only lines that I calculate to be +EV. Yesterday, only 1 line >-1000 was +Ev by my calculations - the -42000 one. Thus, it was the only line that met my requirements for "allin status" and thus I used it.

Bad day today. The biggest (best) plays won, but all the smaller ones lost. Ironically, I beat the closing line on 2/3 losers but one 1/5 winners. In short, anything can happen on one day.

Results & comments on games 12/28:
NCAAB: Florida -500 risk $25 Loss, got in worse than closing line; blew 7 point lead with 2 minutes to go and allowed last second 3 in OT to ultimately lose in double OT by 2
Miami OH -800 risk $24 Won, beat closing line, didn't cover
Evansville -230 risk $25.3 Won, got in worse than closing line, covered
North Texas -260 risk $18.20 Loss, beat closing line
Marquette -380 risk $19 Loss, beat closing line
California -600 risk $36 Won, got in worse than closing line, didn't cover
Stanford -265 risk $29.15 Won, got in worse than closing line, didn't cover; squeaked out 1 point win
Colorado St -500 risk $35 Won, got in significantly worse than closing line, covered; easiest win of the night despite be line movement against me

Official record: 5-3 -$24.2
For comparison only: 2-6 against spread, 3-5 on beating close


Allin results:
none

Bonus plays (big dogs):
NCAAB:
Illinois Chicago +275 risk $6 Won, closing line unchanged
Stetson +1200 risk $2 Loss, beat closing line, covered
Eastern Michigan +650 risk $3 Loss, closing line unchanged, didn't cover
NCAAF: Washington +335 risk $4 Loss, significantly beat closing line, didn't cover (by 0.5)


Bonus record: 1-3 +$7.50
For comparison only: 2-2 against spread, 2-0-2 on beating close

[ThaddeusB]

12/30 picks:
NCAAB: Temple -300 risk $18
Missouri -335 risk $33.50
Florida St -800 risk $24
Richmond -1450 risk $29
Murray State -450 risk $36
N Dakota St -800 risk $16
S Dakota St -280 risk $16.80
Texas Tech -450 risk $27
NCAAF: Mississippi St -245 risk $24.50
Oklahoma -500 risk $25
NBA: Dallas -425 risk $17

Allin:
Richmond -1450 risk $109.29
Virginia -42000 risk $116.83 (if above wins)

Bonus plays:
NCAAB: Western Michigan +3200 risk $1
NBA: Cleveland +460 risk $4
New Jersey +750 risk $3

[ThaddeusB]

I was a made free throw away from perfect today. Still a very good day, though.

Results & comments on games 12/30:
NCAAB: Temple -300 risk $18 Won, got in slightly worse than closing line, didn't cover
Missouri -335 risk $33.50 Won, significant beat closing line, didn't cover (by 0.5)
Florida St -800 risk $24 Loss, got in worse than closing line; after a 10(!) point first half, FL St came back to tie the game at the end of the 2nd half for the first time since 2-2, then proceeded to lose the game by misisng (multiple) free throws that would have won it in OT (including one with 1 second to go) and 2OT, ultimately losing by 2 in 3OT
Richmond -1450 risk $29 Won, closing line unchanged, covered
Murray State -450 risk $36 Won, beat closing line, easily covered; biggest play of the night and one of the easiest wins
N Dakota St -800 risk $16 Won, got in worse than closing line, covered
S Dakota St -280 risk $16.80 Won, beat closing line, covered
Texas Tech -450 risk $27 Won, beat closing line, didn't covered
NCAAF: Mississippi St -245 risk $24.50 Won, closing line unchanged, didn't cover (by 0.5)
Oklahoma -500 risk $25 Won, closing line essentially unchanged (got in 5¢ better), covered; game result never in doubt, but only covered via the backdoor
NBA: Dallas -425 risk $17 Won, closing line essentially unchanged (got in 5¢ worse), covered


Official record: 10-1 +$35
For comparison only: 6-5 against spread, 4-3-4 on beating close


Allin results:
Richmond -1450 risk $109.29 Won
Virginia -42000 risk $116.83 Won; game was much closer than it should have been

2-0 +$7.82

Bonus plays (big dogs):
NCAAB: Western Michigan +3200 risk $1 Loss, closing line unchanged, didn't cover
NBA: Cleveland +460 risk $4 Loss, got in slightly worse than closing line, covered; game went into OT so could have easily gone either way
New Jersey +750 risk $3 Loss, beat closing line, covered; came down to final minute

Bonus record: 0-3 -$8
For comparison only: 2-1 against spread, 1-1-1 on beating close