If you followed the line in EVERY NFL Game this year...

[FourLengthsClear]

Ok now double that because you could flip 60 tails or heads, now add the possibility of flipping 55,56,57,58,59 tails, now double that for heads, and add it all together.

Could be wrong, I know you are a smart guy. But saying 60 or more tails is 2.3% is misleading, isn't it?

Then you have to take in to account that the OP is probably searching for a trend in totals, Monday night games for the past ten years, domes vs. grass, teams coming off a bye week, etc., so the chances of not finding something at ~61% with around 200 samples would be a surprise.

I remember a few years ago my cousin was going to light a cigarette and dropped the cigarette on the ground. It landed on it's end, and didn't fall over, just stood there. We were amazed, and of course tried to do it again and again with no success. It was like lightning struck because the chances of doing that again are very long. But you also have to take in to account how many random events you observe every day, yet don't notice until something weird happens.

I'm not saying the op's observation can't be significant, but 200 is still a small sample size, especially when you are searching for a pattern, instead of forming a hypothesis and then testing it. It's the main reason sportsbetting is a multi billion dollar industry.

I can't argue with that and from my replies above, I think it should be clear that I do believe that variance is the single biggest factor at play here.

Nonetheless, I do think there is something to be said for the market having been slow to adjust to the way the game was being played in the early weeks of the regular season. All sorts of average passing yards records were/are being broken and consequently more points scored with higher average margins of victory. Combine the above with correlation between the 'tracking line movement success' and 'favourites covering the spread' and you have a hypothesis worth testing

[k13]

That was a cool story too. It only took about ten minutes, and I don't play video games. Is that you Frizelli, or are you just another pissed off kid on a losing streak?

If you don't believe it happens do it yourself. The point is, 200 sample size has plenty of variance, and if betting against the line move happened to be ~61% this year there would be an almost identical thread pointing this out and how betting against the public is a sure thing.

dogs-faves are ~50% from 200+ nfl
over-unders are ~50% from 200+ nfl

dogs-faves are ~51% dogs from almost 800 games in College Football
over-unders are ~50% from almost 800 games in College Football

over-unders are ~50% from almost 500 games in the NHL

These are true coin flips

Flipping a coin 200 times and hitting 60% is really tough.
No one has hit 60% with a millions of entries the last 10 years on covers with a huge sample size in the nfl.

I'm not saying you should follow lines or not follow just posting an observation/stat.

[jolmscheid]

Would this work for other sports? And are you taking ANY line movement? Close to gametime? Etc....could you explain a little more?

[Serbone]

You would be ~61%, why make it tougher than it is? Just saying.

That's around a 200 game sample not some mickey mouse sample of 25 games.

Not sure why people keep saying line moves are meaningless, they always bring up some silly example like Packers at Lions. Like one game really matters in the big picture.

C'mon, you know better, making a vague but stunning post like this with absolutely no clarification is horseshit.
Either provide pertinent details-data-baseline-etc up front or don't post.

[Titan_12]

I started tracking ML movement (I use it to track the ATS record) on Saturday....And it seems to be hitting a lot more than not on the ATS

I'll give an example of the MNF game,

49ers opened at -143 (ML on 5dimes) and closed at -165 (ML on 5dimes), and they covered the closing spread of -2.

If you followed this method tonight in hoops you would have gone (15-11-1) ATS
If you followed this method tonight in NHL you would have gone (3-2) ML picks (one game ended up having the same opening and closing line)
If you followed this method tonight in NFL you would have gone (1-0) ATS
If you followed this method tonight in NBA you would have gone (3-0) ATS
So overall you would have gone (22-13-1) tonight in all sports....

Yesterday, I believe all games hit except for maybe two or three games in the NFL following this method and it also killed it yesterday in college hoops...(Don't have the exact numbers)

[k13]

Would this work for other sports? And are you taking ANY line movement? Close to gametime? Etc....could you explain a little more?

I don't have any data for other sports but doubt it work that well. hockey/baseball you basically have ML's, how do you determine what's a significant enough move? Basketball the spreads just don't have as much meaning as football. Too many games overall to track in detail.

NFL = huge volume = huge money = meaningful points

Simple example from tonight. SF opens -1 goes to -3 (-120) at close. The pick is San Francisco.

Majority of games, there's little to think about but I'll explain more later.

[SlickRick1382]

I started tracking ML movement (I use it to track the ATS record) on Saturday....And it seems to be hitting a lot more than not on the ATS I'll give an example of the MNF game, 49ers opened at -143 (ML on 5dimes) and closed at -165 (ML on 5dimes), and they covered the closing spread of -2. If you followed this method tonight in hoops you would have gone (15-11-1) ATS If you followed this method tonight in NHL you would have gone (3-2) ML picks (one game ended up having the same opening and closing line) If you followed this method tonight in NFL you would have gone (1-0) ATS If you followed this method tonight in NBA you would have gone (3-0) ATS So overall you would have gone (22-13-1) tonight in all sports.... Yesterday, I believe all games hit except for maybe two or three games in the NFL following this method and it also killed it yesterday in college hoops...(Don't have the exact numbers)

How much change in the ML do you need for the change to be considered material and worth betting?

[wantitall4moi]

I usually dont get into these types of discussions because theyre always so obviously wrong, but I will throw this out there for the less astute observers.

When this OP was first made there had only been 207 games played all year in the NFL. So for there to be '200' games with line moves that would mean that 97% of all the games played would have a 'significant' line move. Just not going to happen.

OTB games, there were many this year, I would say close to 8%-10% of the games (17-20 games in number) were at one time or another off the board. So trying to determine a move from a game that spent time off the board is foolishness. Obviously injuries or suspensions or weather or whatever reason a game is OTB will have reactions and over reactions. So they will most definitely have moves, butif there was a better than coin flip result it was mostly due to blind luck than anything else.

Backtracking data, a very easy thing to do. Using past results to predict future events, the greatest 'tool' for handicappers and gamblers. Total bullshit and why so many people lose and lose and lose. Its akin to the little display on the roulette wheel which shows the past 15-20 numbers. Greatest addition a casino could have made to the game to help them make money. And looking at results and comparing them to supposed moves is just adding more bullshit to the big pile of bullshit already misinterpreted in the first place.

Also BEATING these moves (thats giving them credit for even mattering) is also something most people cant do. So you have to first find the game pick the 'right' side and hope it is going to be right. Ummm thats what most people do anyway. Some make believe line move after the fact isnt going to change that.

I scalped baseball and took leads for years. As in I bet overnight lines heavy, on a team I thought the line would move on, where I could then buy back the other side for a risk free profit. ANYONE can bet a side, getting the RIGHT side is the biggest trick. If you dont then youre going to be eating a lot of money.

So basically the OP said if you bet EVERY game his year and the line moved the 'right' way on your team you would be up around 30 units. Big whoop. ay too many factors in there. If you had any ability at all and were able to pick and choose one game a week and went 11-5,(so far) bet the same amount of overall units as you did betting 1 unit per play per game, you could be up around 95 units(17 units average). Obviously that entails betting one game 'all in' and hoping. But it makes just as much sense as betting the board and hoping you bet enough of those games on the 'right' side of some make believe back tracked line move.

While I am a big proponent of volume, I am also a big proponent that the NFL is a suckers game and it doesnt offer nearly the volume necessary to make a good ROI. So it is much better to use the system in place, which allows larger bet sizes, and go for a more tactical strike. bet one game a week that you have broken down from every angle and go big on it week after week. Betting 200 bets on the NFL season is basically betting 40% of all the potential plays offered (sides and totals) And even hitting the make believe 60% mark youre not going to get rich.

BUT if you have some ability and some handicapping talent and the ability to play at a book that will give you a decent limit and pay off, then you can make some decent money making just 20 bets a season. Obviously you have to bet more money per play to do it. But in the end a BR is a BR. Lose it all a little bit at a time or hit a reasonable amount of games (cherry picking and making them all 'best bet' types), you have a change to 'beat' the game. Because going 120-80 over 200 games is MUCH more difficult than going 14-6 or 13-7 or even 15-5 over 20 plays you broke down completely.

[chilidog]

I started tracking ML movement (I use it to track the ATS record) on Saturday....And it seems to be hitting a lot more than not on the ATS

I'll give an example of the MNF game,

49ers opened at -143 (ML on 5dimes) and closed at -165 (ML on 5dimes), and they covered the closing spread of -2.

If you followed this method tonight in hoops you would have gone (15-11-1) ATS
If you followed this method tonight in NHL you would have gone (3-2) ML picks (one game ended up having the same opening and closing line)
If you followed this method tonight in NFL you would have gone (1-0) ATS
If you followed this method tonight in NBA you would have gone (3-0) ATS
So overall you would have gone (22-13-1) tonight in all sports....

Yesterday, I believe all games hit except for maybe two or three games in the NFL following this method and it also killed it yesterday in college hoops...(Don't have the exact numbers)

I tracked this back to October the other day, and while it did good, there's just a massive amount of games that you have to play, and it was up about 30 units in 2.5 months.

[Quake]

wow. good stuff

[Inkwell77]

Does anyone know of any sites where you can view the opening line and the closing line (like SBRodds and scoresandodds)????

SBRodds only goes back a few months (but it is the perfect setup, if only it would go back further than a few months!!!! If anyone knows how that would be amazing!) and I'm pretty sure scoresandodds uses sportsbook.com's opening line. Was looking for some reliable opener and closing data from better books than Sportsbook.com

[chilidog]

Does anyone know of any sites where you can view the opening line and the closing line (like SBRodds and scoresandodds)????

SBRodds only goes back a few months (but it is the perfect setup, if only it would go back further than a few months!!!! If anyone knows how that would be amazing!) and I'm pretty sure scoresandodds uses sportsbook.com's opening line. Was looking for some reliable opener and closing data from better books than Sportsbook.com

What are you talking about? SBRodds goes back years.

1 year ago: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/?date=20101219
2 years ago: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds...?date=20091219
3 years ago: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds...?date=20081219

[wantitall4moi]

Does anyone know of any sites where you can view the opening line and the closing line (like SBRodds and scoresandodds)????

SBRodds only goes back a few months (but it is the perfect setup, if only it would go back further than a few months!!!! If anyone knows how that would be amazing!) and I'm pretty sure scoresandodds uses sportsbook.com's opening line. Was looking for some reliable opener and closing data from better books than Sportsbook.com

there used to be some but so many people think it is 'valuable' it is only availbale in short time frames. So unless you have a dataminer and place to store it all you are limited to what the places hold themselves.

I have stuff back t the 80s, not all stored a lot on printed paper. And while it is nice to have t really doesnt mean much. It is just more stuf people like to call 'reasons' why they like some team over another or some team at some line.

Past results have ZERO bearing on future outcomes, regardless of any data or stuff you want to put forth.

It is basically feel good nonsense people use as a reason as to why they made a bet. But flipping a coin is going to be just s valid. People act like a game played in 2005 has any bearing on a game played in 2011. Or a series of games played over time mean something to a game played tomorrow.

Tracking lines moves can give some insight and maybe some perspective but for the most part t is going confuse most people. Lines move both ways all the time and money goes in a lot of times that might not get calculated and cause a move. So tracking this stuff to use as a factor as to why you bet real money is just dumb.

[jolmscheid]

What are the parameters you used Chili for tracking? How big of line movement must there be?

[Titan_12]

How much change in the ML do you need for the change to be considered material and worth betting?

Any type of movement I consider in my records.....Like if the opening ML was -149 and the closing line was -150, I added it to my records...

Left out the games that had the same opening and closing ML.

[brooks85]

There are NO shortcuts in life...

The quicker you realize this, the better...

Hard Work and Discipline are proven...

You have to think weeks and months ahead and wait like a Fukkin Spider...

Hard to do...

recognizing a pattern is not a "shortcut."

[Titan_12]

I tracked this back to October the other day, and while it did good, there's just a massive amount of games that you have to play, and it was up about 30 units in 2.5 months.

Yea I know it's a lot of games....I not saying just blindly follow the movement, simply cap the games and if the line movement is on your side then your more than likely on the right side.

I'm going to track it for every sport until Sunday to see what the overall record is (not playing all the games)...

So far its, 22-13-1 in all sports (with the one push coming in college hoops)

[DOMINATER]

Proves nothing

[k13]

Past results have ZERO bearing on future outcomes, regardless of any data or stuff you want to put forth.

It is basically feel good nonsense people use as a reason as to why they made a bet. But flipping a coin is going to be just s valid. People act like a game played in 2005 has any bearing on a game played in 2011. Or a series of games played over time mean something to a game played tomorrow.

Tracking lines moves can give some insight and maybe some perspective but for the most part t is going confuse most people. Lines move both ways all the time and money goes in a lot of times that might not get calculated and cause a move. So tracking this stuff to use as a factor as to why you bet real money is just dumb.

I agree about past results don't have any bearing on future outcomes.

All those trends people throw out like so and so is 11-3 ATS the last whatever years in certain situations, I never even look at them.

But when you have a game NOW with a -2.5 and it closes -4.5, You are looking at the Present time not the Past.

You either determine it means something or it means nothing.

[SteveRyan]

I usually dont get into these types of discussions because theyre always so obviously wrong, but I will throw this out there for the less astute observers.

When this OP was first made there had only been 207 games played all year in the NFL. So for there to be '200' games with line moves that would mean that 97% of all the games played would have a 'significant' line move. Just not going to happen.

OTB games, there were many this year, I would say close to 8%-10% of the games (17-20 games in number) were at one time or another off the board. So trying to determine a move from a game that spent time off the board is foolishness. Obviously injuries or suspensions or weather or whatever reason a game is OTB will have reactions and over reactions. So they will most definitely have moves, but if there was a better than coin flip result it was mostly due to blind luck than anything else.

Backtracking data, a very easy thing to do. Using past results to predict future events, the greatest 'tool' for handicappers and gamblers. Total bullshit and why so many people lose and lose and lose. Its akin to the little display on the roulette wheel which shows the past 15-20 numbers. Greatest addition a casino could have made to the game to help them make money. And looking at results and comparing them to supposed moves is just adding more bullshit to the big pile of bullshit already misinterpreted in the first place.

Also BEATING these moves (thats giving them credit for even mattering) is also something most people cant do. So you have to first find the game pick the 'right' side and hope it is going to be right. Ummm thats what most people do anyway. Some make believe line move after the fact isnt going to change that.

I scalped baseball and took leads for years. As in I bet overnight lines heavy, on a team I thought the line would move on, where I could then buy back the other side for a risk free profit. ANYONE can bet a side, getting the RIGHT side is the biggest trick. If you dont then youre going to be eating a lot of money.

So basically the OP said if you bet EVERY game his year and the line moved the 'right' way on your team you would be up around 30 units. Big whoop. ay too many factors in there. If you had any ability at all and were able to pick and choose one game a week and went 11-5,(so far) bet the same amount of overall units as you did betting 1 unit per play per game, you could be up around 95 units(17 units average). Obviously that entails betting one game 'all in' and hoping. But it makes just as much sense as betting the board and hoping you bet enough of those games on the 'right' side of some make believe back tracked line move.

While I am a big proponent of volume, I am also a big proponent that the NFL is a suckers game and it doesnt offer nearly the volume necessary to make a good ROI. So it is much better to use the system in place, which allows larger bet sizes, and go for a more tactical strike. bet one game a week that you have broken down from every angle and go big on it week after week. Betting 200 bets on the NFL season is basically betting 40% of all the potential plays offered (sides and totals) And even hitting the make believe 60% mark youre not going to get rich.

BUT if you have some ability and some handicapping talent and the ability to play at a book that will give you a decent limit and pay off, then you can make some decent money making just 20 bets a season. Obviously you have to bet more money per play to do it. But in the end a BR is a BR. Lose it all a little bit at a time or hit a reasonable amount of games (cherry picking and making them all 'best bet' types), you have a change to 'beat' the game. Because going 120-80 over 200 games is MUCH more difficult than going 14-6 or 13-7 or even 15-5 over 20 plays you broke down completely.

You say that the NFL is a suckers game because there isnt enough volume to make decent ROI, but you also say that you can make decent money just playing 20 bets a season.

That's basically a contradiction, but it's all relative to me anyway. Regardless if you bet 200 games or 20 games per season, you're still gonna land somewhere between 45% to 60% and net roughly the same amount of $$$.

I think it all boils down to just how hard you are willing to work at this. If you have time to analyze and pick apart 14-16 matches per week....why not? If you can't do this, then just do what you can and have good BR management.

[hecameup]

I always bet half my stack on a 3 to 4 game moneyline parlay. Never lost 2 weekends in a row. Played conservative. Destroyed my Booky lol $$$$$$

My week 16 Moneyline parlay

Houston over Indiana

Pittburg over St Luis

49rs over Seattle

[jolmscheid]

I always bet half my stack on a 3 to 4 game moneyline parlay. Never lost 2 weekends in a row. Played conservative. Destroyed my Booky lol $$$$$$

My week 16 Moneyline parlay

Houston over Indiana

Pittburg over St Luis

49rs over Seattle

What are the avg odds on your parlays?

[iifold]

You say that the NFL is a suckers game because there isnt enough volume to make decent ROI, but you also say that you can make decent money just playing 20 bets a season.

That's basically a contradiction, but it's all relative to me anyway. Regardless if you bet 200 games or 20 games per season, you're still gonna land somewhere between 45% to 60% and net roughly the same amount of $$$.

I think it all boils down to just how hard you are willing to work at this. If you have time to analyze and pick apart 14-16 matches per week....why not? If you can't do this, then just do what you can and have good BR management.

When are you fukkin twanks going to realize that there is barely 14-16 OFF LINES a year in the NFL actually worth betting...

Let alone every week

Most games come down to a penalty or a turnover anyways, so it doesn't matter what your stupid ass models or line movement tell you...

The NFL is designed to put you on tilt and that's why it constantly busts people...

Like the guy said earlier in this thread, you have to spot off lines like the Eagles+145 vs. the Dolphins a couple weeks ago and go HUGE on them...

Line movement might mean something, but what does it mean??? Do you have a 12% edge or .003% edge ???? How can you tell...?

If you could make good money just following line movement, everyone would do it...and let me tell you a little secret, if everyone started doing it, someone would put an end to it....

[hecameup]

What are the avg odds on your parlays?

Between -124 to -700

[Masu485]

When are you fukkin twanks going to realize that there is barely 14-16 OFF LINES a year in the NFL actually worth betting...

Let alone every week

Most games come down to a penalty or a turnover anyways, so it doesn't matter what your stupid ass models or line movement tell you...

The NFL is designed to put you on tilt and that's why it constantly busts people...

Like the guy said earlier in this thread, you have to spot off lines like the Eagles+145 vs. the Dolphins a couple weeks ago and go HUGE on them...

Line movement might mean something, but what does it mean??? Do you have a 12% edge or .003% edge ???? How can you tell...?

If you could make good money just following line movement, everyone would do it...and let me tell you a little secret, if everyone started doing it, someone would put an end to it....

This is why I've been waiting for this thread to die for the past 2 days, but some motherfukker keeps bumping it. I was so happy when it was on page 2 of the main forum yesterday because I thought it was done for, but some idiot bumped it again. Yes, this was a good strategy, but OP had to go and out it just to get some validation in his life, and now good luck getting a good number on anything. He just single-handedly ruined a decent strategy. If you have a way to make money, why would you post it? I just don't understand. Please let this thread die already.

[k13]

If you could make good money just following line movement, everyone would do it...and let me tell you a little secret, if everyone started doing it, someone would put an end to it....

So what happens at most books when you chase steam and/or beat numbers?

They put an end to that.

Plus you need big money to make big money. You have 5k lets say, hit 60% for the season, wtf is that? Peanuts.
The average person has less to start with anyway.

You don't even know when a Line is off, Eagles/Dolphins........NO. It was only off in your mind.

SD/Bal the line was off...
SF/Sea the line is off right now

[k13]

iifold was fading the Dolphins for 7 straight games and finally got one right because the line was WAY OFF.

1 out of 7 ain't bad.

Why do you think the line was off anyway? Because you won a bet....

[ThaTopMoron]

There are NO shortcuts in life...

The quicker you realize this, the better...

Hard Work and Discipline are proven...

You have to think weeks and months ahead and wait like a Fukkin Spider...

Hard to do...

this made me ...but its so true. i know this... and i still have done nothing yet in my short time in this hobby-sport but get my ass handed to me.

[iifold]

iifold was fading the Dolphins for 7 straight games and finally got one right because the line was WAY OFF.

1 out of 7 ain't bad.

Why do you think the line was off anyway? Because you won a bet....

There is more knowledge in the 2 posts I made in this thread than there is in all 3000 of your posts combined...

Why don't you start a thread and post your plays the rest of the year...

1 unit a play...

Let's see how your "system" works...

[RonPaul2008]

There NOTHING more important to winning at sports then beating line movements.

[John Morrison]

90 percent of my bets are based off line movement and I hit at about 60% in every sport overall

Line movement is very important in the long run

[therushishere]

There NOTHING more important to winning at sports then beating line movements.

How do you tell when sharp money moves the line vs. when public money?

[Inkwell77]

This is why I've been waiting for this thread to die for the past 2 days, but some motherfukker keeps bumping it. I was so happy when it was on page 2 of the main forum yesterday because I thought it was done for, but some idiot bumped it again. Yes, this was a good strategy, but OP had to go and out it just to get some validation in his life, and now good luck getting a good number on anything. He just single-handedly ruined a decent strategy. If you have a way to make money, why would you post it? I just don't understand. Please let this thread die already.

lol, if you think following line movement is some easy way to make money that people don't know about, well.... good luck!

There are times when following line moves hits and there are times when it doesn't.

Anyone who has done research knows that just blindly following line moves is not profitable.

If you set parameters you may be able to make it profitable (RLM and some believe it works specific sports/situations).

I'm a semi-believer in waiting for something to be a little out of sorts (an example is might be leftys vs rightys this year in mlb except I don't know how this plays out every season) and trying to catch the regression, but this is rather difficult and there is no way to know how long something will take in terms of regressing.

This shiz is not easy folks...

[Smoke]

suspicious bump

mods check into this

[Inkwell77]

How do you tell when sharp money moves the line vs. when public money?

Go to covers consensus or streak for cash.
Look for games where there is a high percentage on one team (what is considered a high percentage is debatable!) and a low percentage of people backing the other team.
Then look at the line move(s) in those specific games.
If 95% of the public is backing Team A yet the line is moving towards Team B then that is what I consider to be sharp money.

I may have it all wrong, but that is what I look for.