Anyone offering odds on Republican president nomination?

[Snowball]

I opened an INTRADE account. Funding by mailed check was my option.

I think Romney is overvalued at $7.03 to win $10.00.
Romney is going to have problems in parts of the Midwest and
in all of the South. If you like Romney, wait, because he could
easily lose both Iowa and South Carolina.. but I do think he takes NH.

what's great about INTRADE is you can sell after a move, not waiting
for the final result, unlike sports futures with books.
So say you take Newt here at .97 to win $10.00. If Newt shows in Iowa
and wins SC, his stock will go up 300%.

INTRADE looks awesome to me and I plan on making a lot of $ with it.

[offshoregenius77]

I opened an INTRADE account. Funding by mailed check was my option.

I think Romney is overvalued at $7.03 to win $10.00.
Romney is going to have problems in parts of the Midwest and
in all of the South. If you like Romney, wait, because he could
easily lose both Iowa and South Carolina.. but I do think he takes NH.

what's great about INTRADE is you can sell after a move, not waiting
for the final result, unlike sports futures with books.
So say you take Newt here at .97 to win $10.00. If Newt shows in Iowa
and wins SC, his stock will go up 300%.

INTRADE looks awesome to me and I plan on making a lot of $ with it.

Intrade is nice. Ive done well there on the financials in the past. Just know they are also the MM'er in most mkts, hence the small $4 monthly.

[wantitall4moi]

Obama barely beat a hundred year old McCain when the republicans couldnt win a fixed election. There is nothing saying Obabma cant lose here. Seriously he is so much worse now than he was before he was elected it isnt even funny.

He is an unmitigated failure, there is no debating that. He has shown zero ability to be president. So why should he be re-elected? What plans does he have going forward that he needs 4 more years to come to fruition?

So while Romney (or any other Rep) might not excite people, what makes them worse than Obama?

Just because the guy has a religion that is viewed in a negative manner doesnt mean the guy cant be a good president. He ran Massachusetts for a couple terms and I didnt hear anything related to his religion being an issue there. Some of his policies may not have been the greatest, but how many of Obama's have been all that great?

Bottom line is the office of POTUS is almost meaningless these days. So many special interests and big business money in the way nothing can get done. FDR, Lincoln, nor Woodrow Wilson could get anything done in this political back drop, and they all got things done as president that changed the country forever. So in reality it doesnt matter who is in there unless they have some ability to be a little independent and not cow tow to the lobbyist and people who helped get them elected. But with so many professional politicians that cant happen. That was the single most appealing thing about Obama , he wasnt a professional politician. he just turned out to be a dummy and not have a clue on how to do the job. So it is a catch 22 you need some experience but you cant be imbedded in the system too deeply to be unable to make a decision that you want to make without 50 hangers on or benefactors saying not to do it.

[crinkle]

Barack Obama is the best value bet on the board. He's guaranteed to be the Democratic candidate and the republicans have a bunch of clowns to potentially face him. Odds are being posted as a coin flip but I don't believe that's the case.

[offshoregenius77]

I opened an INTRADE account. Funding by mailed check was my option.

I think Romney is overvalued at $7.03 to win $10.00.
Romney is going to have problems in parts of the Midwest and
in all of the South. If you like Romney, wait, because he could
easily lose both Iowa and South Carolina.. but I do think he takes NH.

what's great about INTRADE is you can sell after a move, not waiting
for the final result, unlike sports futures with books.
So say you take Newt here at .97 to win $10.00. If Newt shows in Iowa
and wins SC, his stock will go up 300%.

INTRADE looks awesome to me and I plan on making a lot of $ with it.

Intrade is nice. Ive done well there on the financials in the past. Just know they are also the MM'er in most mkts, hence the small $4 monthly.

[BrigadierPudding]

Obama barely beat a hundred year old McCain when the republicans couldnt win a fixed election.

Barely beat McCain? The electoral vote was 365-173. Obama trounced McCain.

[QQPALLADIUM]

Intrade is nice. Ive done well there on the financials in the past. Just know they are also the MM'er in most mkts, hence the small $4 monthly.

must have been a long time ago...no more mm'ers...the $4 fee...so how does intrade make money if they are not the mm'er?...sounds like a ponzi

[offshoregenius77]

must have been a long time ago...no more mm'ers...the $4 fee...so how does intrade make money if they are not the mm'er?...sounds like a ponzi

Its play money really. Youve got small numbers of $10 contracts. I wish they would bring back Tradesports... That place rocked! Made a nice little living during college hoops and bases... Oh the good old days...

[Frogger]

Gingrich only one with a shot to beat Romney. There is value betting Newt.

However, Ron Paul only reasonable politian and the rest are scum.

[alling]

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=84328

[wantitall4moi]

Barely beat McCain? The electoral vote was 365-173. Obama trounced McCain.

Another reason why the system we have (and have had is a failure) popular vote s meaningless. Thus it isnt a 'true' Democracy'. There have been several people who have gotten a higher popular vote but due to the antiquated electoral college system failed to win the presidency. Al Gore being the latest one.

Even with every black person and registered democrat alive out voting for probably the first time in their lives Obama had only 53% of the popular vote (I think). He won by lilke 10 million popular votes. When at the time with the republicans getting blamed for everything including cancer, and after 8 years of what people called the worst time in US history next to the Civil War an aging guy who had been a perennial loser still got that many popular votes. AND he had that nutcase Palin as his VP candidate. Seriously in 08 Republicans had EVERYTHING going against them, and they were still fairly competitive.

But like I say the electoral college system is a joke. basically a guy is going to get the same states their party always carries, and thus there are only 3 or 4 states that actually matter. Florida being number one. But even so the big states like New York, California, and Pa always go to Dems, Texas is primarilay Rep. But that still gives Dems a huge head start in the college. And lately Illinois has been mostly Democrat as well, so even if Ohio (which is second most important to Fla as a 'swing' state) votes Rep then it is basically a trade off.

So in most cases the Dems are ahead 132-53 even under the 'best' circumstances. As in they win Ohio. If Reps lose Ohio they have zero chance to win an election, even with Florida. I am not sure why this isnt pointed out more often. I guess because they dont like to expose how stupid the system is in the first place and like to perpetuate the myth that a single vote can be a factor in a presidential election.

Once they do away with the electoral college (which will never happen) then yeah sure go out and vote because then an INDIVIDUAL vote may matter, but right now it doesnt mean shit. Except in 3 or 4 states which can go either way any given year.

[neverstoppers23]

All of you people who think obama is just going to cruise to re-election just remember this. Russ Feingold was beating out by a tea party person in Wisconsin. Feingold was one of the most liberal senators, and now Johnson is one of the more conservative. People are pissed off right now, and in states like Ohio and Wisconsin they have turned 'red' in the last two years. Obama is going to have to hope the economy turns around, at least some-what unless he has no chance.

But as i stated last week, Newt is the play to go, the guy is now tied in second with 15 percent, 3 points behind cain, who some how is still leading. By next week i expect Newt to be the new front-runner.

[lightweight]

Best to try and find the ability to trade in and out. With the field this crowded and Republicans now awarding delegates proportionally, there is a chance that Romney may go to the Convention short of 1144, and all sorts of crazy shit might happen.

[zonedave]

I think america is going to do great no matter who wins.

[lt56]

Cain, Gingrinch, and Perry are not electable and can't beat Obama even though he's done zero to help the economy. Those 3 represent only the top 5%. Romney has slight chance because some dems and independants like him. Ron Paul is interesting. He can't win republican nomination but he can use these debates to keep his message out there. He currently has 10-15% of republicans, about 10 of independants and 5-10% of dems due to his being only anti-war candidate. Also a fair amount of young people like him and he has Tea Party support but also some support from occupy movement. Ron Paul is a longshot, but he's got a shot at getting 35% or more as 3rd party candidate

[CanuckG]

Ron Paul has support from the military that's for sure. Guy is raking in the donations.....getting more than all the other republican nominees combined. He wins these straw polls or w/e they're called or comes close. He just doesn't get a fair shot by the media because he isn't interesting and speaks the truth. Big corporations don't want him in office because he'd change things actually and if he did he'd get JFK'd in no time.

[muldoon]

Ron Paul has support from the military that's for sure. .

Based on the fact that he'd close most of the overseas bases?

[CanuckG]

Based on the fact that he'd close most of the overseas bases?

one reason

[lukahh]

how is intrade liquidity recently? i cashed out when they introduced new pricing, which is suitable for very active users, not me.

atm, it looks like only obama and romney are electable. obama appears as good value bet at 50%

[nyplayer33]

he's romney is 2/5 to win..is he a likely winner...

[No coincidences]

Ron Paul has support from the military that's for sure. Guy is raking in the donations.....getting more than all the other republican nominees combined. He wins these straw polls or w/e they're called or comes close. He just doesn't get a fair shot by the media because he isn't interesting and speaks the truth. Big corporations don't want him in office because he'd change things actually and if he did he'd get JFK'd in no time.

Paul has zero chance to be the Republican nominee. Less than zero, in fact.

Main-stream media and big business would never allow it Canuck. You know that.

[tropolis]

cain is still leading in the polls and is raking in millions.

he also leads romney in iowa, south carolina and florida. i think cain is a great sleeper pick.

romney is a democrat. thats not an insult, thats viewing what he did in office as governor in mass, which is why large conservative forums have banned his supporters, and why those people wont vote for him in the general or primaries.

i dont know about the religion issue, but i know it can only hurt him.

if not cain, then newt as a slightly larger sleeper who is trending upwards.

[TehSharp]

BetOnline does

[Inkwell77]

Newt Gingrich has zero percent chance to become the next president. He may well win the republican nomination and that is all well and good but to even think he has a shot to beat Obama you have to be sleeping. Look at the people who comprise this country! A guy named Newt has zero chance. The only reason Romney has a shot is because many independents and some democrats will vote for him. Newt would get crushed.
I've heard the argument that the Repubs need to run a right wing type of candidate because those are the only types that ever win and any time they run a moderate they lose, but I just think in the current day that is bs. Bush ****** of the image of a right winger for many many people and those people are afraid to vote for a republican unless the republican shows many traits of being empathetic and caring. People hated Bush. Was hard to find a person who liked Bush when his term ended. Not the same for Obama no matter what Fox News or whatever is telling you. Talk to the people. Obama is still liked.

[Frogger]

I think america is going to do great no matter who wins.

I assume this is sarcastic?

[pimike]

I think america is going to do great no matter who wins.

Correct as long as its not OBAMA

[statnerds]

Barack Obama is the best value bet on the board. He's guaranteed to be the Democratic candidate and the republicans have a bunch of clowns to potentially face him. Odds are being posted as a coin flip but I don't believe that's the case.

But it is a coin flip, for now. I have a few friends that got caught up in the hype that was the 2008 election. yes they are pissed and will not vote for him again.

But the problem with running and winning on hope and change is you can only do it once. And now as we close in on year 3 of barry's reign, the expiration date is finally up on blame bush. Now it is blame the repubs in the House for everything, even though the dems had 2 years of senate, house and white house. but the majority of Americans are not falling for that shit anymore.

When the rep nominee is decided, you will see that candidate surge vs barry and the reps will be favored to win. Then you can drop your life savings on barry at +$$$$

I think you are severely underestimating the anti-obama vote.

It is almost as if the adults starting paying attention again and don't let people skate by with "X amount of jobs saved." The only people that fall for made up stats like that are libs and the media. Jobs saved? what the fukk is that and how would you possibly have an accurate way to measure it?

Take a look at congressional approval ratings.

People are pissed at Washington, and rightfully so.

i feel bad for whoever the rep nominee is though. by election time he will be credited with having killed Jesus.

[BetterBizness]

GOP look like a bunch of toolboxes... They can barely beat themselves....

[Inkwell77]

In short, it takes a candidate to beat a candidate, and everything depends on what kind of candidate that is.

We may lament the number of people who are unemployed or who are on food stamps today. But those who give the Obama administration credit for coming to their rescue when they didn't have a job are likely to greatly outnumber those who blame the administration for their not having a job in the first place.

And that is one of the main reasons I believe Obama will win. The young people and poor will show up again.

Here is the full article from some conservative type of dude who is on the anti-Romney wagon. He makes a couple of good points about how Obama can definitely win the election.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-215_162-57325883/how-the-gop-could-blow-it-in-2012/

[PhillyFlyers]

I think Paul is the play here. No one gave this guy a shot to win and now he's wn the California straw pool, Illinois straw pool, Ohio GOP straw poll, San Diego straw poll, and is currently tied for first in Iowa and 2nd in New Hampshire and rising rapidly in both states.

[5mike5]

anything but a republican...ANYTHING

[Justin7]

Cain and Perry are unelectable, and probably not capable of winning a nomination. The big fav (obviously) is Romney. The only real contest is with Gingrich. I think Gingrich has a better shot in the election than Romney due to the religion factor... Have we ever had a Mormon president? If Gingrich decides he is serious about running, I love his chances of at least winning the GOP nomination.

[statnerds]

Cain and Perry are unelectable, and probably not capable of winning a nomination. The big fav (obviously) is Romney. The only real contest is with Gingrich. I think Gingrich has a better shot in the election than Romney due to the religion factor... Have we ever had a Mormon president? If Gingrich decides he is serious about running, I love his chances of at least winning the GOP nomination.

Harry Reid is a Mormon and a piece of shit as well. So it will be made into a big deal if Romney gets nominated, but it is never mentioned in connection with Reid, gotta love the liberal msm.

Romney has been running for the nomination for 6 years and still can't close the deal. Just as there is a strong anti-obama voting bloc in America, there is a sizable anti-Romney vote.

Frankly if Gingrich got the nomination, barry would go incommunicado until the election. Gingrich would truly embarrass obama in a debate. for all the flak bush got for being not so intelligent, you get obama without a teleprompter and he rambles and bumbles around for something that resembles a cognizant thought on any topic.

I still think anyone blindly thinking obama is a clear cut favorite is lying to themselves, while underestimating the intelligence of the average American. You can't spend 7 years telling everyone that 5% unemployment is bad and the economy sucks, and then when your guy gets in the whitehouse turn around and say that 9% is the new norm and it isn't his fault.

And the longer this occupy bullshit goes on, one that both obama and pelosi endorsed, the worse it is for the dems. the 'movement' is doing nothing but drawing a clear distinction between working, tax paying Americans (producers) and unmotivated free loading whiners (takers). Do these dumb fukks not even see how they are being manipulated by rich politicians that rake in millions and millions of dollars from 'evil corporations' and 'wall street'? How a sloppy millionaire film maker with 2 houses manipulates them while cashing in on stocks of 'evil corporations? Fukkin idiots.

The economy is going nowhere for the rest of this year, or in 2012.

Tell me what obama runs on, please. He can't run on his record. He can't run on hope and change again. Tell me what the fukk he runs on?

Young people turning out this time? How is going to get them all excited and hyped up again? No history making election this time. No great Satan to run against. Tell me how he creates the same excitement that had him doing speeches in stadiums? That has been replaced with tepid reactions that have him speaking in gymnasiums that are half empty. He won the election by the media turning him into a celebrity. And if you didn't notice most celebrities have a short shelf life in America. obama fatigue is setting in. He is going to need every one of those billion dollars he raised for re-election.

I do feel bad for all those white people that voted for him the first time around. Wait until they find out they are still racists unless they vote for barry again.

[pimike]

Cain and Perry are unelectable, and probably not capable of winning a nomination. The big fav (obviously) is Romney. The only real contest is with Gingrich. I think Gingrich has a better shot in the election than Romney due to the religion factor... Have we ever had a Mormon president? If Gingrich decides he is serious about running, I love his chances of at least winning the GOP nomination.

[TomG]

Cain and Perry are unelectable, and probably not capable of winning a nomination. The big fav (obviously) is Romney. The only real contest is with Gingrich. I think Gingrich has a better shot in the election than Romney due to the religion factor... Have we ever had a Mormon president? If Gingrich decides he is serious about running, I love his chances of at least winning the GOP nomination.

If you want more, I'll book your Gingrich 2012 Nominee action. If we can agree upon the price, we can do it for up to a few thousand. I'll escrow to any reputable 3rd party.