Anyone offering odds on Republican president nomination?

[Justin7]

I'd like to invest in this. Any books have this?

[flyingillini]

Most do

[Hoja Verdes]

I assume you're talking about Mitt Romney.

[doublej95]

Cain is done

[Winner_13]

justin tons do, quick glance Bet365, bodog, pinny had it up a couple days ago,
now tell us who u like and y

[CanuckG]

Ron Paul should win but Americans are too damn stupid

[No coincidences]

It will be Romney and it isn't even a question anymore.

[MendozaLine]

And he has zero chance of becoming president.

How someone could vote for a mormon is beyond me.

It will be Romney and it isn't even a question anymore.

[PAULYPOKER]

save your $, Obama will get a 2nd term.......

[GunShard]

Back in January. I placed a bet on Romney at 5 to 1 odds. Now the value is gone, he is the heavy favorite.

[Grits n' Gravy]

save your $, Obama will get a 2nd term.......

Yup. Only person who can beat Obama would be Hilary Clinton.

[Boscoe]

intertops has romney to win the nom at -200

[Ralphie Halves]

-210 at 5dimes

+130 to win Iowa Caucus
-1200 to win NH Caucus
-600 to win NV Caucus

I think that NV -600 is as sure thing as it gets. You never see Mormons in Vegas unless you go to In-N-Out Burger or the republican caucus. They show up in FORCE for their guy. It's not even close. Buddy of mine went last time to try and get Ron Paul on the ballot, and left early because Mormons were swamping the place and he knew he had no shot.

[wantitall4moi]

-210 at 5dimes

+130 to win Iowa Caucus
-1200 to win NH Caucus
-600 to win NV Caucus

I think that NV -600 is as sure thing as it gets. You never see Mormons in Vegas unless you go to In-N-Out Burger or the republican caucus. They show up in FORCE for their guy. It's not even close. Buddy of mine went last time to try and get Ron Paul on the ballot, and left early because Mormons were swamping the place and he knew he had no shot.

LMAO Mormons founded vegas and I would say about 20% of the population of the whole town in Mormon, maybe not practicing but would claim it as their religion, I am sure you can google it, it might actually be more. There is a large mormon population there, they just dont visit all the shit that most degenerate find so appealing. Although I am sure some of the inactive members will venture into a casino on occasion.

[neverstoppers23]

Intertops has this.
Rommney is a square choice, but if you want value Newt might slip up on people. Cain sliding in the polls, those voters are going else-where. It won't be to Romney IMO, and newt has already gained i think 15 points in the last two weeks in Iowa. I can see him over-taking the lead and winning iowa, and coming in a close second in New Hemp.

[big0mar]

[neverstoppers23]

Yup. Only person who can beat Obama would be Hilary Clinton.

That is a very very naive view. The economy is in the shit hole right now, and its very likely the economy won't be looking any better. Obama would lose if the election were held to day vs. Rommney.

I don't like any of the GOP guys, but Gary Johnson who has no chance of winning.

Both the rep. and dems. really just bitch about the same shit in each year. Its the same thing for the last 300 years. Small government vs big government. Taxes/no taxes. yada yada yada.

The united states system of government is broken, all congressmen do now is campaign, that is all they care about. they don't care about fixing the country, sure if it helps their campaign get votes they will vote a certain way. There should be a term limit on senate and congress. But anyways that is missing the point.

[d2bets]

Intrade is the most comprehensive.

[Grits n' Gravy]

That is a very very naive view. The economy is in the shit hole right now, and its very likely the economy won't be looking any better. Obama would lose if the election were held to day vs. Rommney.

I don't like any of the GOP guys, but Gary Johnson who has no chance of winning.

Both the rep. and dems. really just bitch about the same shit in each year. Its the same thing for the last 300 years. Small government vs big government. Taxes/no taxes. yada yada yada.

The united states system of government is broken, all congressmen do now is campaign, that is all they care about. they don't care about fixing the country, sure if it helps their campaign get votes they will vote a certain way. There should be a term limit on senate and congress. But anyways that is missing the point.

agree with you, but most Americans will vote for Obama knowing it is a 4 year run as opposed to a possible 8 years of Romney. I think it is time the system gets overhauled. The senate and congress need to have the majority from the same party as the president. Then shit gets done. If it fails, they get voted out.

[statnerds]

agree with you, but most Americans will vote for Obama knowing it is a 4 year run as opposed to a possible 8 years of Romney. I think it is time the system gets overhauled. The senate and congress need to have the majority from the same party as the president. Then shit gets done. If it fails, they get voted out.

ummm, like barry's first 2 years in office?

and a system overhaul? Are you trying to get obama to run on hope and change again?

[statnerds]

Additionally, if you thought Romney was going to win the nomination, and since the presidential election is now a pick 'em, would you be much better off taking Romney in the +200 area to be the next president? If you and the Market are sure Romney wins the nomination, then that future play there has tons of value.

Remember 6 months ago when barry was -190 to win re-election?

[statnerds]

Damn, that proved so persuasive that I did it myself

Pending11/10/11 8:00am Politics Other Sports 1103 Mitt Romney wins 2012 election +195* <small>vs</small> Field wins 2012 election

Thanks Justin. If we trust the Market on this one saying Romney has a ~66% chance to win, but only has a ~32% to be president when the a generic challenger has a ~50% chance to beat barry, then +195 gives me a semi

sorry, was that weird at all?

[Inkwell77]

Romney is not going to beat Obama.

I will say he has a way better chance than any of these other jokers. I hope this stuff becomes legal to bet on soon, Obama at -110 with a reputable real book would be amazing.

People like what they know. People know Obama. Many many people love Obama, he has that star quality and no one can really deny this. Romney does not evoke that same sort of reaction. He's cookie-cutter, and does not have any real stand out qualities. His flip flopping has and will continue to hurt him (even though the issue of flip flopping in general is so dumb, but the media loves that shiz)

Also, most people don't know anything about Mormonism so instantly that is a huge question. How will the general public respond to that issue?

Here is an article that makes some decent points http://thehill.com/opinion/columnist...to-win-in-2012

But in recent weeks I have changed my mind. In recent months and indeed, in the last several days, Romney has increased his already serious problem of being a flip-flopper and coming across as inauthentic, and also showed serious political tone-deafness as a non-compassionate conservative.
Several recent examples come to mind. There was Romney’s insensitive statement in Las Vegas last week — in a state with the highest foreclosure rate in the nation — that he wanted to allow home foreclosures to “hit the bottom” to help the housing industry recover. That might be rational economic market theory — but it’s not an example of showing any empathy for the folks just blocks away from his press conference who are losing their homes to banks.
Next came the attack on Texas Gov. Rick Perry for supporting the children of illegal residents in Texas paying in-state tuition rates while attending Texas public colleges. But Romney apparently had forgotten that in Massachusetts, he had supported a healthcare law that guaranteed illegal residents of the Bay State access to tax-subsidized healthcare.
Then there was Romney going to Ohio two days ago and flip-flopping on his prior support for Gov. John Kasich’s law barring collective bargaining for public employee workers. Recently Ohio polls show a 25-point advantage for a referendum to repeal the law. So now, Romney claimed that he had no position on the referendum.
Just a few days ago, Romney immediately criticized Obama for his announcement that all U.S. military forces would be withdrawn from Iraq by Dec. 31, 2011. But he knew that the main reason for Obama’s rather sudden announcement was the Iraqi government’s intransigence over many months of continuing the grant of legal immunity for U.S. soldiers risking their lives, an immunity that the U.S. government has always insisted on, regardless of the administration. Yet Romney by innuendo suggested that Obama’s decision might have been politically motivated.

[Glitch]

if you dont waste votes on ron paul, mitt romney can win.

[lukahh]

I agree with Intrade which was mentioned earlier. for this market, it has decent liquidity.

Mitt Romney has 71% chance of being nominee, you can buy or sell that. I think price is high; although others dont have much momentum at the moment, caucuses can be unpredictable.

Obama has 51% to be re-elected. probably some value in there imo.

[BrigadierPudding]

Romney will likely be the nominee baring something unforeseen happening. The problem is he doesn't excite the hardline right wingers, and his Mormonism will keep some people home. You could see a third party candidate emerge. Romney vs Obama will be very much like Kerry vs Bush in 2004. It won't be a landslide like 2008 but Obama will win. There's a reason why incumbent presidents rarely lose re-election.

[BrigadierPudding]

Pinnacle has Romney at -263 to win the nomination.

Winning party for the general election is: Democrat -124; Republican +112.

[linedrivr]

after lasts night debate, new odds on Perry are now 1,000,000 to 1. go get you some.

[No coincidences]

Pinnacle has Romney at -263 to win the nomination.

Winning party for the general election is: Democrat -124; Republican +112.

Therein lies the true value.

Romney will be the Republican nominee, and he won't beat Obama.

Not crazy about another four years of Obama, but it is what it is. Republicans have had ample time to come up with a viable candidate, yet when I'm watching one of their debates, I feel like it's an SNL sketch.

[nyplayer33]

is romney like a lock

[BrigadierPudding]

is romney like a lock

He is the prohibitive favorite but 71% isn't a lock.

[nyplayer33]

i don't see the odds anywhere

[BrigadierPudding]

Check Pinnacle and Intrade.

[nyplayer33]

intrade are they open to usa

[QQPALLADIUM]

intrade are they open to usa

yes but they only charge a monthly fee so i would be concerned about how they are making any money if they don't charge commissions....