Unloading on Rand Wolf on the road against the hottest team in baseball....GL.
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not really. If i was to bet the brewers then yeah thats probably the way i would go. I see it as better value then the ml though. If the brewers are on and hitting they will probably cover. Wolf is one of those pitchers who has had games where he is lights out and then those games where he looks like he cant make it through a inning. I am not betting baseball tonight as i dont see value in either game though, but best of luck to whatever you decideOriginally posted by rb3b3Comment -
Yep, definitely. I never play alt run lines, because I already spend too much time capping the ML, RL, and totals, but I took a quick look after your post, and I'd consider the alt run line at anything better than +150.Originally posted by rb3b3Comment -
Cards barely hung on last night. Mil will dig deep tonight and pull out the win. Let's face it Wolf is so awful yet he is only +127 here? Line makes no sense. I look for a big game from Morgan and Braun. I like the cards story but mil only needs to win one road game to make the world series and that game is tonight with Cardinal killer Randy Wolf. Go Randy.Comment -
Originally posted by lakerboy
wolf isnt really so bad.
he actually pitched pretty well this year 13-10 with a 3.69 era. The problem is the 6-7 on the road. I wouldnt call him a cardinal killer this year.
really you are expecting a big game from morgan? really? please dont tell me thats why you are taking them
he is 3/21 hitting 141 in the postseason.
also braun is 1-9 vs lohse this seasonComment -
Wolf is 2-0, 1.12 ERA in 2 second half starts vs. Cards...Comment -
wolf is 1-1 actually he lost 8-3 on august 31st
he actually is 2-0 with a 1.13 era in his last 2 starts at buschComment -
you also have to worry about his last start where arizona pounded him, but hey you never know. I don't want to talk people off their picks, i just putting some stuff out there for you guys.. gl thoughComment -
I'm not betting the game tonight but I think it's absurd to say the Cards barely hung on.Originally posted by lakerboy
St. Louis never trailed and I don't think Milwaukee had a base runner at all the last three innings. I never felt St. Louis was in jeopardy of losing.
If anything, the Brewers were lucky they were only down on run. They kept pitching around Albert, walked him intentionally twice with runners on, but Holliday couldn't get a hit to break it open.Comment -
Tough callComment -
i liked mil to win this series before it started but i think they really needed that game last night. wolf is having control issues right now, he better figure them out fast. he looked very bad last game and he even admitted he is having issues putting the ball where he wants it right now. if he does not get in trouble early mil should take it but if he starts out slow it could be a long painful game. gl with your playComment -
What?? Are u serious pal?? Momentum in baseball is mammoth. You think teams go on 8-9-10 game winning streaks because of matchUP's?? You can't matchUP well w/ an opponent/situation 8-9-10 days in a row.Originally posted by toddorts
And LTA wasn't referring to this game being a coin toss as in a PK. Pretty sure he meant coin toss w/ the line built in. I promise you if this game was a pk LTA (& everybody else) would be all over it as a multiple unit play.Comment -
Lol. The Cardinals made the post-season bc of momentum.Comment -
I tend to agree here and do believe there is a momentum element, especially with regard to the bats. The Cardinals bats got shut down for 7 innings last night. One of the main reasons they did is because LaRussa continues to stubbornly bat Holliday clean up. He offers no protection for Pujols but Roenicke continues to not pitch around Pujols, makes no sense. The Cards have been winning despite Holliday in the 4 hole. He did get a couple of cheap hits in Milwaukee but face it, in his current health status, he is the batting equivalent of the prototypical weak hitting shortstop. I think LaRussa will have him back in cleanup tonight and the Brewers will finally give in and not give Pujols much to hit, put him on and let Holliday kill the rally. Lohse is due for a regression but you never know. The back end of the Cards bullpen all pitched last night....advantage Brewers.Originally posted by lakerboy
I think the series goes 7 but it's the Brewers turn tonight.....BOL all.Comment -
Awesome article on Yahoo today...
"Then Milwaukee started cruising and the Cards struggled, their nadir coming Aug. 24, when the Los Angeles Dodgers swept them in three days at Busch. Chris Carpenter, the pitcher who may best embody the stoicism that manager Tony La Russa preaches, stood up in front of his teammates and, amid the usual rah-rah chatter, said something so quaint and so unlikely, something that perhaps only a St. Louis Cardinal would say.
“Let’s do this for the fans,” Carpenter told them."
Just awe-inspiring, a team that plays the game the right way with the right attitude. You won't see Carpenter LOL'ing in the dugout when his team is about to lose a playoff game... Too much class.Comment -
Haha, forgot all about this...
Turned out Nyjer Morgan, the Brewers’ chatty (and apparently illiterate) outfielder, was a tad premature with his early-September Twitter taunt: “Where still n 1st and I hope those crying birds injoy watching tha Crew in tha Playoffs!!!”Comment -
You guys crack me up with this stuff. Teams can go on 10 game winning streaks for the same reason that bettors with a 58% long-term winning expectation sometimes go on 10-play winning streaks: simple math. It's been a while since I've been in school, but I'm pretty sure they teach probabilities and binomial distribution in junior high, so everyone here should be familiar. If you have a team that plays 10 games in a row, and they have a 70% chance of winning each game based on your capping, then that team will win all 10 games in a row nearly 3% of the time. In other words, not too often, but not unheard of, either. It's simple math. A team with only a 55% chance of winning will see the same 10-game winning streak far less, but they'll still see it 0.25% of the time. In other words, it still happens eventually, even when the matchups are all really close, and it has nothing to do with "momentum."Originally posted by upscope
But you keep betting on "momentum," and I'll keep cashing my tickets.
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lolOriginally posted by vyomguyComment -
So you bet against St. Louis the past month and made money?Comment -
I'm going 5 units on the brew crew, looks like an amazing bet, going 3 units on Detroit
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Yep. I'm 2-2 betting against the Cardinals this past month, up just slightly on those bets +0.07 units. I've bet with them more often than against them, though, and never was a bet based on "momentum."Originally posted by BigDofBAComment -
GL LB. When you make a big play like this I stand up and take notice for better or worse. Lets hope the Brew Crew brings it tonight and ties this up.Comment -
LOL at Chris Carpenter, voted by MLB players as the 7th meanest player in baseball, having "too much class"Originally posted by GimpedMasterAwesome article on Yahoo today...
"Then Milwaukee started cruising and the Cards struggled, their nadir coming Aug. 24, when the Los Angeles Dodgers swept them in three days at Busch. Chris Carpenter, the pitcher who may best embody the stoicism that manager Tony La Russa preaches, stood up in front of his teammates and, amid the usual rah-rah chatter, said something so quaint and so unlikely, something that perhaps only a St. Louis Cardinal would say.
“Let’s do this for the fans,” Carpenter told them."
Just awe-inspiring, a team that plays the game the right way with the right attitude. You won't see Carpenter LOL'ing in the dugout when his team is about to lose a playoff game... Too much class.
Originally posted by Dark HorseComment -
I was thinking about the same play...glComment -
Air bet
Noone with a half a brain bets 10x on milwaukee ON THE ROAD.Comment -
You have been talking alot of shit lately for no reasonOriginally posted by lunchbawks
Tone it down or you will follow Illusion out the doorComment -
Good luck. I'm not sure a dominant Randy Wolf start/expectation should ever be the baseline for a bet but Mil or no play here. Berkman out, Mil is gonna have to swing the bats though.Comment -
Not talking shit. I just know the Brewers will lose again and noone needs to lose any money on this gameOriginally posted by goldengreekComment -
That article is hilarious. Too bad they don't give reasons why.Originally posted by DrStaleLOL at Chris Carpenter, voted by MLB players as the 7th meanest player in baseball, having "too much class"
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I don't understand this post. If anything, the line is higher than it should be. Cards were dogs entering the series, Wolf has dominated StL in the past, Lohse is the opposing pitcher (not exactly an ace himself) -- if anything, the +127 is high given the fact that the Brewers can't afford to go down 3-1.Originally posted by lakerboyComment -
Sharps are on them, yet the ML has gone from +105 to +131.Originally posted by jjgold
OK.
I'm not saying the Brewers are a bad play, but there's nothing really that supports it.Comment -
That +105 number from 5dimes is irrelevant. Why are you so fixated on it?Originally posted by No coincidencesComment -
Wolf was 3-2 against St. Louis this season, giving up 19 runs on 32 hits over five starts.
What you guys think on totals?Comment -
Why is it irrelevant? It was +105 at Bookmaker as well.Originally posted by t-wizzle
Regardless, even if you go by a different book like Pinny, the line has moved at least 10 cents in the Cardinals' direction.Comment -
Right and 5 of those cents have been during Joe Public's time of the day. No coin, the brewers are going to get action before the first pitch. I say it closes at -135/+125.Originally posted by No coincidencesComment
