thats why i don't like runlines

[pat venditto]

something shady about them. cubs will win by one and the books will still win because of that rigged 9th.

[pat venditto]

like i said.

[ManOfValue]

I know how you feel , the reality is though that its not rigged, some relievers just STINK...

[Bostongambler]

Always take the runs/runs never give ...It is hard enough to win let alone by two runs.

[Nicky Santoro]

in my whole gambling career, only once did i bet a -1.5, and i loved that team all day.. i didn't bet in on ML.. dont know why..
final score, my team won 6-5.. was up 6-4 late, 2 outs, no one on.. hit by pitch, took 2nd base.. and then an error by SS.. final, 6-5..

NEVER again after that. i felt sick to my stomach..

instead of winning a big big bet, i lose, a big big bet. do you have any idea what kinda swing this is? it killed my whole week.

instead of collecting 1300 from bookie, i ended up paying him 1100.. didn't sleep well that night..

no more fckin RL's.. it doesnt feel as good to win them, as it feels bad when you lose them and win by 1.

I stick to ML's ONLY now..

[jjgold]

Many pros say RL's bets are for the suckers and squares and I beileve it, we all bet them.

[woodg8]

- run lines are shit. +1.5 has saved me loads of times.

[rake922]

in my whole gambling career, only once did i bet a -1.5, and i loved that team all day.. i didn't bet in on ML.. dont know why..
final score, my team won 6-5.. was up 6-4 late, 2 outs, no one on.. hit by pitch, took 2nd base.. and then an error by SS.. final, 6-5..

NEVER again after that. i felt sick to my stomach..

instead of winning a big big bet, i lose, a big big bet. do you have any idea what kinda swing this is? it killed my whole week.

instead of collecting 1300 from bookie, i ended up paying him 1100.. didn't sleep well that night..

no more fckin RL's.. it doesnt feel as good to win them, as it feels bad when you lose them and win by 1.

I stick to ML's ONLY now..

check out the timestamp pal http://forum.sbrforum.com/877697-post11.html

[Nicky Santoro]

- run lines are shit. +1.5 has saved me loads of times.

runlines at +1.5 are nice when your team loses 5-4.. but what about when it's even money on the ML, and you bet them at +1.5 -220, and they lose 4-2?

instead of losing 1,000, you lose 2200..

when you win, they are nice, but when you lose by more than 1, it fcks up your bankroll.

if you win 2 of every 3 rl's,you get killed in gambling.. you have to win 70% of the run lines to show a very small profit.

[woodg8]

runlines at +1.5 are nice when your team loses 5-4.. but what about when it's even money on the ML, and you bet them at +1.5 -220, and they lose 4-2?

instead of losing 1,000, you lose 2200..

when you win, they are nice, but when you lose by more than 1, it fcks up your bankroll.

if you win 2 of every 3 rl's,you get killed in gambling.. you have to win 70% of the run lines to show a very small profit.

it is annoying when they lose by more than 1, like dodgers last night, but i don't change the value i play the bet because the odds are a little lower. i can accept a little less money with the same stake.

[rake922]

runlines at +1.5 are nice when your team loses 5-4.. but what about when it's even money on the ML, and you bet them at +1.5 -220, and they lose 4-2?

instead of losing 1,000, you lose 2200..

when you win, they are nice, but when you lose by more than 1, it fcks up your bankroll.

if you win 2 of every 3 rl's,you get killed in gambling.. you have to win 70% of the run lines to show a very small profit.

I got the Tigers +2.5 and the Redsox ML with Tampa ML... huge parlay

[Capwizards]

I hardly play run lines....However, that being said, if the value isn't there and you have done your homework there is nothing wrong with the RL. I was a genius for 8 innings today, and than things fall apart.....it happens unfortunately......That's why it is important to stay disciplined on your wager amounts........It's just another loss, but there are more to be won.....I do not believe you are going to see a rigged 9th like that man in a big spotlight.........Look much lower for the fixed games! Have a good one.

[SBR_John]

runlines at +1.5 are nice when your team loses 5-4.. but what about when it's even money on the ML, and you bet them at +1.5 -220, and they lose 4-2?

instead of losing 1,000, you lose 2200..

when you win, they are nice, but when you lose by more than 1, it fcks up your bankroll.

if you win 2 of every 3 rl's,you get killed in gambling.. you have to win 70% of the run lines to show a very small profit.

You can kind of say the same about RL's with heavy chalk. What were the cubs like -250? Obviously this is not a good example because they won. But if they lost well your barreled in for -2500 istead of a dollar and a little change. Didnt workout this time but on -250 favorite stuff I think the RL deserves a look.

[jjgold]

There are so many 1 run games in bases, I think guys that bet lots of RL do not have big bankrolls.

[donjuan]

Anyone who refuses to bet a RL in either direction is a tard.

[Brady2Moss]

RUN LINES are for SUCKERS, period.

[Brady2Moss]

except +1.5 RL's

[donjuan]

RUN LINES are for SUCKERS, period.

Right on cue.

[Nicky Santoro]

r

[Nicky Santoro]

RUN LINES are for SUCKERS, period.

tom

i can tell you are one smart guy..

[MikeC]

You're smart man Pat Venditto

[Keith Richard]

I bet run lines fairly often. I would much rather take a chance not winning by 2 than give up odds like - 200. That's just nuts. I think they are ok if you pick your spots. My main concern is managing my bankroll and finding good value in bets. Hit a few -1.5+210 and -1.5+185 and see how fast your bankroll can grow at times.I almost never will give up odds higher than -130. I bet plus runlines and dogs almost exclusively.Even the best teams lose 1/3 of their games in MLB.

[SBR_John]

I bet run lines fairly often. I would much rather take a chance not winning by 2 than give up odds like - 200. That's just nuts. I think they are ok if you pick your spots. My main concern is managing my bankroll and finding good value in bets. Hit a few -1.5+210 and -1.5+185 and see how fast your bankroll can grow at times.I almost never will give up odds higher than -130. I bet run plus runlines and dogs almost exclusively.Even the best teams lose 1/3 of their games in MLB.

Lose a few -250's on the ML and see how fast it shrinks. Overall if the total indicates a normal score then laying the 1.5 runs is a square move imo. But its a bet that has its place under the right conditions.

[pavyracer]

Send Marmol to the minors. We wouldn't have this conversation right now if it was done yesterday.

[donjuan]

This whole thread is LOL. Betting +EV big favs is a marvelous way to grow your bankroll. Anyone who doesn't realize this should try playing around with the Kelly calculator.

Of course, it's easier to luckbox it up over smallish sample sizes with underdogs so I'm sure most of you will delude yourself into thinking that dogs are the way to go.

[NEP Dynasty]

What happens when the -400 favorite loses like the Pats in SB and you lose a big portion of bankroll.

[donjuan]

What happens when the -400 favorite loses like the Pats in SB and you lose a big portion of bankroll.

You say, that sucks but it was a bet with a decent amount of +EV and as long as you made a wager on it that was properly sized with regards to your bankroll and Kelly/EG then great.

[pat venditto]

i dont bet games based on the line. i bet games based on their expectation to win vs the line.

[pokernut9999]

Too many people say " never " too damn much.

Just because someone bets a -230 favorite does not mean they bet all -230 favorites or the Patriots -400.

I hear people say all the time never bet a favorite higher than -130 in baseball .

I find it hard to believe they have never seen value in a team higher than -130 in baseball.

[Keith Richard]

There are no sure bets unless you already know the outcome or the game is fixed.Laying -250 and -400 chalk will take all your bankroll eventually. You have to remeber there are thousands of games to choose from. There will be other days to find good spots.

[donjuan]

There are no sure bets unless you already know the outcome or the game is fixed.Laying -250 and -400 chalk will take all your bankroll eventually. You have to remeber there are thousands of games to choose from. There will be other days to find good spots.

So many dumb people, yay.

[Nicky Santoro]

Too many people say " never " too damn much.


I hear people say all the time never bet a favorite higher than -130 in baseball .

I find it hard to believe they have never seen value in a team higher than -130 in baseball.

don't get me started with this or else i will be up all night.. this is the comment i hear most on forums, and it makes me the most sick. people saying they will never bet over -160 ever. can you get any sillier..

so basically, if the bulls of the early 90's, played a div 3 team in NCAA, and the line was -170, a lot of people wouldnt' bet it.


people dont realize that whether it's -120, or -350, it makes no difference. you can get better value in betting -350 somtimes. it's all about win%.. if you think a team has a better than 78% chance of winning a game, then -350 is a good bet..

if you think that a team has only a 53% chance of winning a game, then -115 is a bad bet..

i'd lay -800, if i knew that i had a 90% chance of winning the game..


it has nothing to do with how much you lay and all to do with value..

[pokernut9999]

don't get me started with this or else i will be up all night.. this is the comment i hear most on forums, and it makes me the most sick. people saying they will never bet over -160 ever. can you get any sillier..

so basically, if the bulls of the early 90's, played a div 3 team in NCAA, and the line was -170, a lot of people wouldnt' bet it.


people dont realize that whether it's -120, or -350, it makes no difference. you can get better value in betting -350 somtimes. it's all about win%.. if you think a team has a better than 78% chance of winning a game, then -350 is a good bet..

if you think that a team has only a 53% chance of winning a game, then -125 is a bad bet..

i'd lay -800, if i knew that i had a 90% chance of winning the game..


it has nothing to do with how much you lay and all to do with value..

Get you started on what

Sounds like you agree with what I said.

[Nicky Santoro]

i was agreeing with you.. i was saying dont get me started because of some of the comments i heard in this thread and other days about posters saying dont lay over -170, or you will go broke if you bet big juice..

[Keith Richard]

Do you really think you would ever see the Bulls -170 in that kind of situation? Of course I would bet it also. I agree it's fine to bet a huge favorite if you found that kind of situation but that isn't going to happen unless it is an OBVIOUS BAD LINE.