Lets talk about gambling

[illfuuptn]

so you know how books figure their holds huh? or what a 'real' line on a game is? I dont because they change it, so I just did the next best thing I made them all the same, and took a nickle off each side. Which is as good as assume they take all the vig out of the favorite. So no it probably isnt 'right' but there is no right unless you know how every book does their book keeping.

I'm not even saying it's incorrect due to shading. I'm just saying you're incorrect even from a basic math perspective. The % change from -120 to -125 is much different from the % change from +125 to +120.

[rkelly110]

OMG, my head is spinning. Long posts that basically say nothing. KISS method!

NFL, Pick the largest ML Dog. Bet the spread. 15-8 last year. Dogs +400 and over went 14-6.
Buy points if you wish. Labby them or martingale, what ever tickles your testicles.

[135steward]

A lot of people coining the new popular terms than up until about 10 years ago no one had even heard of or thought of.

before the internet, no one talked about 'the market' of sports betting. hell it wasnt really a term until just a couple years ago. So a gambler created word to try and justify some theory they have.

Also beating the closing line. Sure some guys talked about it being important, but no one lived and died by it. Not until the computer age when guys were running programs and laying it in on what they thought were 'soft' numbers didnt any truly worry about beating a line move. Another thing internet gurus invented to try and sound smarter than everyone else.

Math and numbers. The whole gamete, back in the day the only math people were concerned about was how to subtract their losses. Nowadays you have theories and algorithms and formulas and all kinds of bullshit that doesnt mean jack shit when all is said and done. Used to be you liked a side you bet it for X amount, you liked it alittle more you bet it for XX amount. You didnt have kelly or some other formula telling you how much to bet to avoid taking too big a loss. You bet it and you either won or lost. End of story.

With so much 'knowledge' all it does it make people even more susceptible to mistakes and second guessing. They live and die during the game then they dwell on a bad beat or wondering where they went wrong instead of focusing on the next bet.

There are few things that are constant with sports betting, and you cant control them all.

But basically always get the best number you can on the team you like, and that might not always be the moment you like them. If you cant get the best then decide to take less or pass.

Volume beats performance. 10000 bets for a small profit each will beat out 100 bets for a modest profit each. Even if you have to bet both sides of the same game to do it. It is about compounding your profits and rolling them forward. If you cant guarantee a profit you cant guarantee the plan.

Shit happens and it shouldnt even be a factor. One game is and should be just another game. No more no less. So getting caught up in games is a major mistake. I dont even watch sports, never really did. Maybe the Superbowl here or there, thats about it. Rooting for teams you play or thinking that watching the game will help is dumb. I lived in Vegas for years and watched degenerates live and die on every pitch of a baseball game, watched guys move in when they were 24 or 25 right out of college with a little bit of money leave with gray hair and busted in just a few months, needing to borrow bus fare money to get out of town before the landlord found them.

Take the one thing most people gamble for out of the equation...the excitement. Not something many people can do. But if you can do that then you have a vastly superior chance to do well at it.

Forums are a perfect case study into what is wrong with people. Guys looking for attention, making statements to the extreme looking to become famous or a martyr. Guys that seek the approval of a bunch of anonymous degenerates like themselves are really not people you should be looking to admire anyway. Theyre probably people you wouldnt even look at on the street in real life. But on the forums they are almost deities. Just shows the power of a monicker of a make believe world and what effect it has on peopel when they see that name in print.

Some guys get physically ill or excited seeing poster names or having some poster (they have probably never ever met) say something positive or negative about their poster name on a forum full of losers. People actually identify others and themselves by that poster name. Especially if it is a name they have had for along time or is well known in the cesspool of the internet forums.

Yeah I know getting off topic, but it still goes to the mindset of guys who gamble. They seek things through gambling they couldnt attain any other way. And they dont attain them through gambling either. They just use gambling as the convenient excuse as to why they dont have a successful life. Some people use booze, some people use ex wives, guys here use gambling. Theyre all just weak individuals who could succeed at anything even with every opportunity given to them.

I nominated this post because of the level of truth in it. That said, though, gambling wouldn't be any different than accounting without the excitement. For us recreational gamblers, we probably wouldn't bother without getting the rush.
Youre right. It's like dope. I was an addict for 12 years. I prefer gambling because I don't have to worry about some moron cutting my shit with KCl or rat poison. And sometimes I get some money back without having to rob the dealer.

[Peregrine Stoop]

OMG, my head is spinning. Long posts that basically say nothing. KISS method! NFL, Pick the largest ML Dog. Bet the spread. 15-8 last year. Dogs +400 and over went 14-6. Buy points if you wish. Labby them or martingale, what ever tickles your testicles.

data mining

[Inkwell77]

what a thread. I have learned much in the past year, still have a long ways to go.

[GunShard]

I'm also constantly learning to be the most efficient gamber.

Good insights in this thread.

[No coincidences]

All this thread proves is how many quality posters have left SBR in the past calendar year.

[hawley]

I saw Lyon posting the other day


I miss Lyon

[No coincidences]

I saw Lyon posting the other day


I miss Lyon

Me too.

vyom as well.

[hawley]

Me too.

vyom as well.

Perhaps Lyon will return when the NBA starts back up.

Vyom had a MLB thread for a while but did I see him post that he wasn't really posting anymore?

[ProGambler]

1. Fade Brock Lander
2. See no.1

[Smoke]

I saw Lyon posting the other day


I miss Lyon

[ProGambler]

I saw Lyon posting the other day


I miss Lyon

I saw Lyon posting the other day


I miss Lyon

Who is Lyon?

[hawley]

Who is Lyon?

Lyon was a solid poster a year or so back.

[Smoke]

Lyon is good peoples

[daimoshokage]

Great post by LB!

"2. You decide on a certain play but lines change and you think twice and leave it and it ends up being a winner."

Happens on every degen

P.S.

Lyon is LB's sidekick.. I think Lyon is gay..

[no1here]

all bull which changes daily, the trick is not to gamble but simply win as I do. Never deposit and you will be OK. Find your own gimmick and you will do well. Last year it was the Lions for me, this year it is going against Penn.

[Smoke]

Lets talk about gambling

[daimoshokage]

nice jugs smokey..

[Smoke]

Nice nipples daimo

[NYSportsGuy210]

wantitall4moi:

Are you saying a -125(no-vig for easiness) that moves to -150 is still only 56% to win? Or are you saying it typically will approach 60% but the line moves tend to go too far so it usually is short of that 60%?

ML line (ie- [-125] or[-150) DO NOT ACCURATELY CORRELATE with the actual real world WINNING CHANCES of a team. That is just a Vegas oddsmaker's perception in the beginning when they set the lines and then eventually the bettors who believe otherwise which causes moves in the lines.....BIG DIFFERENCE pal.