Do your own research. Find weakness in the line and exploit them. This is what the best do. A line doesn't play the game. The guys on the field play the game. So don't let the line dictate your play by let the players on the field dictate your play.
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"Manipulates" lines would be accurate.Comment -
Lakerboy, this was a great post. I agree with all of it, particularly knowing that when you bet a game (ex: Pats-7) and the line drops (Pats now -5.5), you always lose that bet. It's done. In my younger days I would have said, good for me, fukk them, give me more Pats. No more. No more.Comment -
I was in Vegas and bet a game, read the forum and found out Brock was on the same game. I just tore the ticket up on the spot....Comment -
1 Pick games early in the week
2 Get those game at the best line possible
3 Let the chips fall where they may
4 Remember this is supposed to be funComment -
lot of people thought USC was going over yesterday, sports-spy had 92% on the over , not even close,tv games
are under plays or no betComment -
- use BR management
- learn a programming language
- learn statistics
- read some sports betting books
- have some imaginationComment -
With all sorts of gambling: BR management is the key element. Every Tom, Dick & Harry know it yet only 1-3% of gamblers adhere to it.
"Going all-in" is too big of a good rush I guessComment -
Sh-t happens when U bet sports..Comment -
Theorem:
1. If tons of talk in this thread about beating the closer and line movement asserts the strength of the market then
2. Many of these posters believe in EMT and therefore
3. Every stat, angle, weather and injury report is already baked into the line so therefore
4. Beating in the number is the only thing that matters.Comment -
2 things on billy boy.
1. Ivan Mindlin
2. Someone had to be Walters. If you compiled all the stats for every game played in MLB history and ran 1,000's of simulations based on those numbers there should have been 11 hit streaks as long as Joey D's. Never confuse randomness with infallible success.Comment -
good write up bro, i can totally relate to most of those... btw i love reason #10 lols
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Good points LB, I am sure all of us have experienced at least one of those.Comment -
try to avoid being "creative" or "contrarian" and betting on shitty +money teams fading Verlander or bets like that. it is easier to win 2 consecutive -215 bets than one +230 bet in baseball.Comment -
i hope you guys are joking. you do realize the inverse of this theory is betting on every pick that makes sense then the line becomes less favorable. if the opposite is almost certainly a loss then it is almost a certain win. obviously not the case.
not to take away from the merit of some of the points made there. the lester vs kansas city example is probably the most relevant.Comment -
Correct, you obviously need both, but spotting EV should be ranked ahead of BR management. If you have the best BR management in the world but can't spot +EV bets, it will only allow you to lose your money slower.
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A lot of people coining the new popular terms than up until about 10 years ago no one had even heard of or thought of.
before the internet, no one talked about 'the market' of sports betting. hell it wasnt really a term until just a couple years ago. So a gambler created word to try and justify some theory they have.
Also beating the closing line. Sure some guys talked about it being important, but no one lived and died by it. Not until the computer age when guys were running programs and laying it in on what they thought were 'soft' numbers didnt any truly worry about beating a line move. Another thing internet gurus invented to try and sound smarter than everyone else.
Math and numbers. The whole gamete, back in the day the only math people were concerned about was how to subtract their losses. Nowadays you have theories and algorithms and formulas and all kinds of bullshit that doesnt mean jack shit when all is said and done. Used to be you liked a side you bet it for X amount, you liked it alittle more you bet it for XX amount. You didnt have kelly or some other formula telling you how much to bet to avoid taking too big a loss. You bet it and you either won or lost. End of story.
With so much 'knowledge' all it does it make people even more susceptible to mistakes and second guessing. They live and die during the game then they dwell on a bad beat or wondering where they went wrong instead of focusing on the next bet.
There are few things that are constant with sports betting, and you cant control them all.
But basically always get the best number you can on the team you like, and that might not always be the moment you like them. If you cant get the best then decide to take less or pass.
Volume beats performance. 10000 bets for a small profit each will beat out 100 bets for a modest profit each. Even if you have to bet both sides of the same game to do it. It is about compounding your profits and rolling them forward. If you cant guarantee a profit you cant guarantee the plan.
Shit happens and it shouldnt even be a factor. One game is and should be just another game. No more no less. So getting caught up in games is a major mistake. I dont even watch sports, never really did. Maybe the Superbowl here or there, thats about it. Rooting for teams you play or thinking that watching the game will help is dumb. I lived in Vegas for years and watched degenerates live and die on every pitch of a baseball game, watched guys move in when they were 24 or 25 right out of college with a little bit of money leave with gray hair and busted in just a few months, needing to borrow bus fare money to get out of town before the landlord found them.
Take the one thing most people gamble for out of the equation...the excitement. Not something many people can do. But if you can do that then you have a vastly superior chance to do well at it.
Forums are a perfect case study into what is wrong with people. Guys looking for attention, making statements to the extreme looking to become famous or a martyr. Guys that seek the approval of a bunch of anonymous degenerates like themselves are really not people you should be looking to admire anyway. Theyre probably people you wouldnt even look at on the street in real life. But on the forums they are almost deities. Just shows the power of a monicker of a make believe world and what effect it has on peopel when they see that name in print.
Some guys get physically ill or excited seeing poster names or having some poster (they have probably never ever met) say something positive or negative about their poster name on a forum full of losers. People actually identify others and themselves by that poster name. Especially if it is a name they have had for along time or is well known in the cesspool of the internet forums.
Yeah I know getting off topic, but it still goes to the mindset of guys who gamble. They seek things through gambling they couldnt attain any other way. And they dont attain them through gambling either. They just use gambling as the convenient excuse as to why they dont have a successful life. Some people use booze, some people use ex wives, guys here use gambling. Theyre all just weak individuals who could succeed at anything even with every opportunity given to them.Comment -
lol want....im not reading that shit because im busy right now but you usually have some really good things to say- but youre just always so long-winded.
im gonna compile all your posts into a book a sell it. ill buy the rights with sbr points.Comment -
big difference, I dont post a laundry list of teams or plays. I just state stuff I have done in the context of discussing the topic.
You dont see me posting stupid "if this doesnt win I quit" threads or "how do I withdraw (fill in the blank here) money from (fill in the shit book that advertsies on this joint)" threads. I also dont post "I made this much this weekend" threads, or "wow what a bad beat" threads. Never did when I was posting fairly regularly at all the forums around the net.
Now if I started a thread that said "HERE IS HOW I MADE MILLIONS GAMBLING" Of course in all caps. Then went on a rant about stuff that I may or may not have done and then gone ahead and proceeded to post a bunch of nonsense, or even some sense stuff that would be a little different. Never did that either. Hell I really never said anything about how much I made until someone posted stuff on another forum about who I was and what I did. But those internet detectives dont have too much else to do and all day to do it, so it is surprising they dont do it more.
Either way I dont gamble much anymore, just goof around with a couple locals here and a couple guys in vegas putting in some plays for me to help them out a little bit. No money in it these days, just a nice pass time but unless youre in it for the high then no real sense doing it anymore. Unless you live in Vegas and want to make 25-30K a year and not work too hard.Comment -
Wantitall4moi,
You sure give a lot of advice for someone who doesn't even regularly wager any more. Well here's some advice for you: things have changed in the 10-15 years since you supposedly wagered professional. In fact, it's changed A LOT. Most of your advice is silly in the context of the current state of sports betting. You might want to consider that before you didactically respond to every post in the Think Tank.
Congratulations on your past success, though.Comment -
this is in players talk, or both I guess.
I was betting full time until about 2008, So it has only been 3 years. The only thing that has changed significantly since then is the books are a lot worse now, at least offshore ones. But then again anyone that plans on doing it for a living would find ways to place wagers at the books they arent supposed to be able to play at i.e. US players playing at books closed to US players.
I have also still fooled around with baseball and by fooled around I mean I probably still make more doing that 'part time' than most so called full time bettors do. So that involves taking correct leads and going forward. And no it is not 100% fool proof, but I still can get on the right sideof line moves about 9 out of 10 times and have the ability to eject fast enough on the ones I am 'wrong' about not to get beat up too bad. But that is the way it has always been. But betting limit size plays into overnight lines will guarantee you some movement on its own so even if everyone is against you you generally have an insurance penny or two to reduce major problems.
So basically what I call part time is what most guys would consider full time, I just dont rely on my gambling as my sole source of income anymore so therefore to me it is fooling aorund. I make money through other avenues right now. But still enough from gambling to be worthwhile. Free money is still free. I just dont do it every single day like I used to.
regardless of all that I have been around gambling since the early 80s and have seen it all and have gone through every sort of manifestation of it. From sitting in gyms in the middle of the winter watching practices and taking notes, to finding out whose girlfriend was knocked up and needed money for an abortion, to watching boosters and agents and scumbags go in and buy and sell guys like groceries. Then the internet era hit and it sort of took off from there. Computer guys and math guys and people with slide rules and calculators and search engines and stats and you name it they had it. And in those 30 years or so it is still basically the same thing. Just more people are exposed to more of the same thing. A complete homogenization of it all to the lowest common denominator. If a guy in Philly has a cold you know about it instantly now, back then not many people knew. if some guy in Cleveland bets 50K on a game you now know or at least get wind. If the line moves somewhere now everyone moves. Used to be a line in Boston could be -10 and in Dallas it was -5. But I have surely been around and betting long after those things changed. So it isnt like the whole book has been re-written, and even though I dont do it for my income I still have forgotten more about sports betting than most guys ever thought they knew. Some right, some wrong. But I dont question 'success'. But then again success is a relative term, what I do/did isnt anything anyone else cant do, they just choose not to.
But because I dont like to bet one way action doesnt mean I cant or dont. it just doesnt always pay. I can handicap and drop sports knowledge as well if not better than the next guy. I can break down teams from all sorts of angles, get into stats and hidden stats and why a game was fake due to what people think they saw rather than what really happened. But in the end that still doesnt matter, because games still have flukes and bad bounces and bad beats. And rather than dodge those bullets it is much better to lock in a profit.Comment -
What dumbshit nonsense. If your analysis is different than and superior to what other people can do (lol right), then the line, by definition, won't reliably move to your analysis because you're the only one doing it. So the *only* way to profit from the superiority of your analysis (lol again) is to let it ride dirty. But it's not like dinosaur posers like you and Chubby are a demographic well-known for ever making any sense about anything.Comment
