The Seer's 2011 NCAAF & NFL thread

[jihadvillager]

Any thoughts on possible 2h under?

[The Seer]

Any thoughts on possible 2h under?

doubtful I will have anything else on this game but will see what they put up

[jihadvillager]

any lean on o/u 2h?

[The Seer]

any lean on o/u 2h?

slightly on under

[The Seer]

saw some 6s and 24s but I like what I have

[The Seer]

off to a good start
adding:
Den/NE under 51 -105 1 unit
On top of the other factors, Bill Belichick has coached in 7 Divisional round games and the under is 6-1. The only OVER came last year when the Pats/Jets scored 14 in the final 2 minutes.

[The Seer]

adding:
under 63-115 .5 unit

[The Seer]

2nd half Dnv/NE under 23 .5 unit

[jihadvillager]

damn seer if we bet all the big faves and overs this year we'd be rolling in dough. at least we got some back on the under adds though- there must be a conspiracy to bankrupt sharp bettors

[jihadvillager]

Packers down to 7 on some lines

[jihadvillager]

looks like line back to 7.5

[The Seer]

damn seer if we bet all the big faves and overs this year we'd be rolling in dough. at least we got some back on the under adds though- there must be a conspiracy to bankrupt sharp bettors

so far in the playoffs:Home teams 6-0 ATS , Favs 4-2 ATS and 5 of 6 games have gone over. The public is mainly on NYG and split in the other. I like what I have.

I figure I'll be against the Pats next week anyway but here's a tidbit: Nfl teams are 3-19 ats in the playoffs since 1996 the week after scoring 40 pts

[jihadvillager]

so far in the playoffs:Home teams 6-0 ATS , Favs 4-2 ATS and 5 of 6 games have gone over. The public is mainly on both dogs today. I like what I have.

I figure I'll be against the Pats next week anyway but here's a tidbit: Nfl teams are 3-19 ats in the playoffs since 1996 the week after scoring 40 pts

lets get this teaser!- i think public is actually on baltimore in the early game, but we only need them to win anyways

[The Seer]

lets get this teaser!- i think public is actually on baltimore in the early game, but we only need them to win anyways

Now I'm seeing it anywhere from 53% to 62% but definitely staying with those bets

[The Seer]

here's the plays posted from friday, might throw in a live total later

7 pt teaser Baltimore -.5 & GB -.5 -130 3 units may lay the points with Balt later plus a play on the total These 2 teams played earlier this year with Balt winning 29-14. Matt Shaub was at QB for the Texans in that game. Cundiff kicked 5 fgs in that game for the ravens. The Ravens won by 15 despite having a -2 turnover differential. They also had an average of 6.2 yard gain per play compared to Houston's 4.4. The Texans are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Ravens are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six outings against teams with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff games as a favorite.Houston and Baltimore both allow less than 17 pts per game. In the 5 games in which Houston surrendered 20 or more points, the Texans went 0-5. They went 10-1 in the others. Interestingly, The under is 16-5 in the Ravens’ last 21 home games against teams with a winning road record. The defense steps up their game even more at home vs good teams. Balt sports the 2nd ranked rushing defense and Houston has the 4th. This will be a battle of field position and the Ravens’ average starting field position at home is the 31 yard line (3rd in the NFL) so they have the edge there. I think Houston will be too one dimensional and that spells trouble for TJ Yates with Ed Reed lurking in the secondary. For the Texans: Playing at home in the franchise's first playoff game is one thing but playing on the road at Baltimore is quite another. Balt is 18-1 straight up in their last 19 home games. Green Bay -7 -125 2 units I still believe the Packers are being undervalued in this spot but the public only remembers what they saw last. That was 3 straight strong games from the Giants. In fact, the general public is remembering what the Giants did just a few years back on their last SB run and are drawing parallels. Add to that the game back on Dec 4th in which GB outlasted the Giants at home, 38-35. Also, public perception has changed somewhat on the Packers after their loss to KC. Reality is GB has been banged up and hasn't had much to play for. Recently, the offensive line has suffered multiple injuries and Jennings has been out. GB is still the best team in the league and will be playing home fully healthy. Also, Rogers' amazing season has been slightly forgotten with what Brees and the Saints did the last few weeks. GB went 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS at home this season. Green Bay is 4-0 ATS in their last four January games and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record. In the NYG's 7 losses, they averaged 21.5 carries per game. They averaged just under 29 carries in the 9 wins. They carried the ball 31 times in their wins over the Cowboys and Falcons. Also in the Giants 9 wins the defense averaged 263 passing yards per game. GB averages 334 passing yards per game at home. There's almost no chance that the Giants will hold GB to 263 passing yards or less. Although, missing a week can be disruptive, I think it has helped GB with injuries more than it has hurt with timing. They may start a little slow to get back their rhythm, however, I expect the GB defense to play well at home and Rogers (with all of his weapons at his disposal) to show everyone that he is still the best player in the league right now. The Packers went over the total 11 times. Many of the Packer players are still around that remember NY celebrating on their field the overtime win in the 2007 NFC championship. There may be a slow start so taking the over during an in game may be another play to consider. Some interesting couple of stats for what it's worth are:the number 1 seed in the NFC won 19 of the last 21 divisional playoff games going 15-6 ATS. They were 9-1 ATS vs a wildcard team coming in winning by 13 or more.

[jihadvillager]

wheres the obvious holding call ont hat play.

[jihadvillager]

Rice needs to get more touches

[The Seer]

Rice needs to get more touches

I agree. I got a -6 -115 for a unit after the Texans fg but was late to post it so I won't claim it as a win if it does win . Sorry I didn't get it on here in time. That was the first time.

[jihadvillager]

Wow everything going over-- gun to my head I still take the under on night game though

[The Seer]

Wow everything going over-- gun to my head I still take the under on night game though

faves and overs have been hitting all year. I coulda retired after betting that this year. Hopefully we will see alot dogs and unders after an overcorrection next year.

[jihadvillager]

Always sweaty

[The Seer]

adding: 2nd half Balt -3 .5 unit
Ravens defense will adjust to the outside zone

[k13]

faves and overs have been hitting all year. I coulda retired after betting that this year. Hopefully we will see alot dogs and unders after an overcorrection next year.

50% and 51%

I don't know if that's called hitting all year.

[The Seer]

50% and 51% I don't know if that's called hitting all year.

it's been higher on the games i bet, which is usually against the top 10 in college (Stanford, OK St, Oregon, LSU, BAma,etc). Those teams covered over 65% this year. It looks like all high profile public games (NFL playoffs included) are trending that way.

[The Seer]

Now all we need is GB to kick a little as and we are in for a huge day.

[jihadvillager]

Crazy that game went under I was gla to see the line back to juiced 7.5 off he 7 last night

[The Seer]

adding:
GB team total over 31 -120 .5 unit

[jihadvillager]

on all 3 of my lines, the Giantts Moineyhline went up from +280 to +320 in the last couple hours

[The Seer]

I'm going to see if I can get a 51 or less on an ingame and will put a unit on the over.

[jihadvillager]

I'm going to see if I can get a 51 or less on an ingame and will put a unit on the over.

thanks for the heads up

[The Seer]

adding:
live bet NYG/GB over 51 1 unit

[jihadvillager]

Ground caused fumble shouldbt stand

[The Seer]

Ground caused fumble shouldbt stand

yep and got that over on the somewhat key number of 51. I didn't think anyone would post anything under that yet.

[The Seer]

Rogers is a killer. The guy could take 5 months off and throw ropes.

[jihadvillager]

Rodgers is on point we have so many drops