The Seer's 2011 NCAAF & NFL thread

[jgray]

Seer, that had to have been the worst offensive game plan coupled with poor execution I've ever seen in a legitimate game. Wow is all I can say.

[The Kraken]

Seer, you are annually one of our best cappers. Seer, look forward to next year.

[The Seer]

Seer, that had to have been the worst offensive game plan coupled with poor execution I've ever seen in a legitimate game. Wow is all I can say.

I agree and I've never seen a team play with so little emotion. It's evident they didn't feel they should be having to play them again. I was totally wrong, nothing new these last couple of weeks.

[jihadvillager]

i appreciate your picks win or lose, you're very honest with your picks and always get them out on time- there are no guarantees in gambling even if you cap well. Some of the games we just plain lost, but we've definitely had our share of bad luck in several nailbiters that would have made a 15-20 unit swing at the least- will continue tailling for the rest of NFL if you still put any plays out - many people on the forums dont have the balls to put all their plays in one thread to get scrutinized by others when things dont go their way. I commend you for that and appreciate the plays once again.

[paco]

Seer, enjoyed ur write ups this football season. Tough stretch down the end of bowl season but GL in the remaining nfl games bro,

[jgray]

I agree and I've never seen a team play with so little emotion. It's evident they didn't feel they should be having to play them again. I was totally wrong, nothing new these last couple of weeks.

They weren't disinterested on the defensive side of the ball, though. Given the little amount of help they were getting from the offense (and how much they were left on the field) I thought the LSU defense came to play. I'm not going to suggest that they were better than the Alabama D. There's going to be a lot of Alabama love for the defense and, as good as it was, they weren't given much of a challenge.

Did you catch Les's interview with Erin Andrews? He's almost incoherent trying to talk about what happened on offense. Sort of explains what happened.

[The Seer]

Seer, you are annually one of our best cappers. Seer, look forward to next year.

Thanks Kracken, I appreciate it. It's been a tough year especially being a majority dog player. I thought I had a chance to finish up strong the way the bowls started but it fell apart with some tough beats and it clearly affected my handicapping the rest of the way. At least I can concentrate on one league now. Hopefully it ends better. GL the rest of the way.

[jjgold]

Good work Stud

One of top football threads of the year

[jihadvillager]

Any early leans for this weekend's nfl seer? With the public high on the giants i like the packers to win convincingly and ravens seem like they should stuff the run and get to Yates who is a rookie and looked very nervous at home last week. Still, Houston has a strong defense an flacco can be inconsistent- ravens -1.5 packers -1.5 teaser seems too easy to me- any thoughts?

[The Seer]

Any early leans for this weekend's nfl seer? With the public high on the giants i like the packers to win convincingly and ravens seem like they should stuff the run and get to Yates who is a rookie and looked very nervous at home last week. Still, Houston has a strong defense an flacco can be inconsistent- ravens -1.5 packers -1.5 teaser seems too easy to me- any thoughts?

lol we think alike. Yes, I am on SFran and GB for a couple of units each and have that exact teaser of Balt and GB for 3 units. I'll try and do a write up this afternoon.

[jihadvillager]

lol we think alike. Yes, I am on SFran and GB for a couple of units each and have that exact teaser of Balt and GB for 3 units. I'll try and do a write up this afternoon.

Thank you seer- probably lock in whatever you have already locked in.

[jihadvillager]

What did you lock in so far seer?

[The Seer]

Seer, enjoyed ur write ups this football season. Tough stretch down the end of bowl season but GL in the remaining nfl games bro,

thanks bud

Good work Stud

One of top football threads of the year

thanks chief

What did you lock in so far seer?

coming up

[The Seer]

San Fran +4 2 units
may add more on the side a play on the total before game time
Even though teams with a bye haven't faired well in recent years. This game is an exception. SF is not laying points and they play football similar to teams of old and aren't as reliant on timing and rhythm. The Saints did go 9-0 straight up and ATS at home but how quickly people forget though that this team went 5-3 straight up and 4-4 against the spread on the road. This includes losses at St Louis and Tampa Bay with a narrow escape at TN. They scored 20, 21, &22 pts in those games. The saints forced just 3 turnovers and held the ball under 28:37 in their 3 road losses to GB, TB, & St L. Brees' QB rating is 22 points lower on the road as well. The last 7 redzone drives for the Saints in outdoor games netted 1 TD and 5 FGs. It's clear they are a much different team on the road than at home. The 49ers are the perfect team to get Brees out of rhythm. The feature the 4th ranked defense and a ball control offense. Greg Williams blitzed Alex Smith 18 times and sacked him 6 times in the first half of a preseason game when SF was putting in a new offense.. This didn't sit well with the 49ers and will be looking for major payback. San Francisco gives up 10.9 points at home. The Saints have the 6th ranked rushing offense but the 9ers have the number 1 rushing defense allowing only 77 yds per game. They didn't give up a rushing TD til the 2nd to last game. This will make the Saints one dimensional. Also of note: In their last 3 home games, SF has given up a total of 10 points. San Francisco is 18-6-3 ATS in their last 27 home games. New Orleans is 0-4 in playoff road games. There is no coaching edge for NO as coaches in their first playoff game while at home have covered 22 of 34 ATS. In fact, Belichick, Fox, Kubiak, Johh Harbaugh, Payton, Coughlin, McCarthy all won their first-ever playoff games.

Denver +14-115 1 unit
Bettors remember that it wasn't but a few weeks ago that Denver was stroked at home 41-23 by the Pats.
Let's also remember that Pats haven't won in the post season since 2008. They are 0-6 ATS in their last six playoff games. 3 of those they were DD faves plus a -9.5 last year.
The Broncos went 6-2 ATS on the road this season and are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.
Denver went 0-5 in 2011 when committing three or more turnovers but went 5-1 when giving up the ball once or none. Keep in mind that New England ranked third in the NFL in takeaways during the regular season with 34 but also consider that they still have the 31st ranked defense. 3 costly turnovers by the Broncos led to 13 points for the Pats in the teams last meeting. If the Broncos can play near mistake-free football, this game will be closer than 14. Belichick is 15-5 straight up in the post season but 9-11-1 ATS. Fox is 7-2 ATS in 9 post season games including 6-1 ATS as a dog. 5 of those covers were outright wins. Basically, we are seeing one team that's overvalued playing another than has been undervalued.

7 pt teaser Baltimore -.5 & GB -.5 -130 3 units
may lay the points with Balt later plus a play on the total
These 2 teams played earlier this year with Balt winning 29-14. Matt Shaub was at QB for the Texans in that game. Cundiff kicked 5 fgs in that game for the ravens. The Ravens won by 15 despite having a -2 turnover differential. They also had an average of 6.2 yard gain per play compared to Houston's 4.4. The Texans are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Ravens are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six outings against teams with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff games as a favorite.Houston and Baltimore both allow less than 17 pts per game. In the 5 games in which Houston surrendered 20 or more points, the Texans went 0-5. They went 10-1 in the others. Interestingly, The under is 16-5 in the Ravens’ last 21 home games against teams with a winning road record. The defense steps up their game even more at home vs good teams. Balt sports the 2nd ranked rushing defense and Houston has the 4th. This will be a battle of field position and the Ravens’ average starting field position at home is the 31 yard line (3rd in the NFL) so they have the edge there. I think Houston will be too one dimensional and that spells trouble for TJ Yates with Ed Reed lurking in the secondary. For the Texans: Playing at home in the franchise's first playoff game is one thing but playing on the road at Baltimore is quite another. Balt is 18-1 straight up in their last 19 home games.

Green Bay -7 -125 2 units
I still believe the Packers are being undervalued in this spot but the public only remembers what they saw last. That was 3 straight strong games from the Giants. In fact, the general public is remembering what the Giants did just a few years back on their last SB run and are drawing parallels. Add to that the game back on Dec 4th in which GB outlasted the Giants at home, 38-35. Also, public perception has changed somewhat on the Packers after their loss to KC. Reality is GB has been banged up and hasn't had much to play for. Recently, the offensive line has suffered multiple injuries and Jennings has been out. GB is still the best team in the league and will be playing home fully healthy. Also, Rogers' amazing season has been slightly forgotten with what Brees and the Saints did the last few weeks. GB went 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS at home this season. Green Bay is 4-0 ATS in their last four January games and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record. In the NYG's 7 losses, they averaged 21.5 carries per game. They averaged just under 29 carries in the 9 wins. They carried the ball 31 times in their wins over the Cowboys and Falcons. Also in the Giants 9 wins the defense averaged 263 passing yards per game. GB averages 334 passing yards per game at home. There's almost no chance that the Giants will hold GB to 263 passing yards or less. Although, missing a week can be disruptive, I think it has helped GB with injuries more than it has hurt with timing. They may start a little slow to get back their rhythm, however, I expect the GB defense to play well at home and Rogers (with all of his weapons at his disposal) to show everyone that he is still the best player in the league right now. The Packers went over the total 11 times. Many of the Packer players are still around that remember NY celebrating on their field the overtime win in the 2007 NFC championship. There may be a slow start so taking the over during an in game may be another play to consider. Some interesting couple of stats for what it's worth are:the number 1 seed in the NFC won 19 of the last 21 divisional playoff games going 15-6 ATS. They were 9-1 ATS vs a wildcard team coming in winning by 13 or more.

There should be some live betting opportunities in all of these games & I might add a play or to before these games kick off.

[Ace_of_Spades]

Good Stuff Seer

[jihadvillager]

Thank you seer

[jihadvillager]

Redoing my bet w the book so I do the 7pt tease like you- I don't want to lose if ravens win by 1 in a field goal battle

[ZetaPsi808]

good luck pal

[opie1988]

Excellent write-up's as always, pal. Really appreciate all the effort that you put into your plays. Best football thread around, in my opinion.

Going to be tailing you out here in Vegas on these.

Here's to a good day for us both.

[The Seer]

Good Stuff Seer

Thank you seer

good luck pal

thanks

Excellent write-up's as always, pal. Really appreciate all the effort that you put into your plays. Best football thread around, in my opinion.

Going to be tailing you out here in Vegas on these.

Here's to a good day for us both.

[The Seer]

a few more tid bits on NE/DEN: Broncos opponents’ record: 139-117. Patriots opponents’ record: 116-140. The Pats only beat one playoff team which was Den. NE is 3-14 last 17 as DD faves.
If Denver can keep from turning it over, they're in this thing.

[dodger33]

Love those stats! Go Timmy!

[Louisvillekid1]

like 'em,

[The Seer]

Love those stats! Go Timmy!

one more thing: The last time these 2 teams played it was in the 60s. Today, game temperatures are expected to be in the 20s. I'd rather back a running team in those conditions than I would a team that throws the ball around the yard. I'm thinking seriously about putting another unit on Denver. NE's defense still gave up over 400 yds in their last meeting. I wish someone could tell me that Denver would only turn it over 1 time or less though.

like 'em,

[The Seer]

adding to my earlier plays:
6 point teaser SF +10 & Denver +20 -110 1 unit

you can get those numbers at bovado

[freeVICK]

Part of me hopes for a denver win, the other part of me hopes for tebow to tear his ACL

[shocktopme]

.

Great stuff as usual bud!!!Glad your on 9ers and points too!!!!!Wish I could pull trigger on o/u but just too tough to call!!!49ers will have some tricks in thier playbook and hell any team that onside kicks to open half of super bowl(saints) will probably be up to some hijinx too!!!Will the tide be up(field below sea level)making for crappy playing surface affecting Saints receivers ability to run crisp routes????Could go on....Thanx for the season and look fwd to next!!!!!!

[jihadvillager]

Diggin your new avatar seer - is that our boy Timmy the ladies' man?

[The Seer]

Part of me hopes for a denver win, the other part of me hopes for tebow to tear his ACL

I don't wish players to get hurt, it's bad Karma. It would be damn bad Karma to wish it for Tebow. GL

Great stuff as usual bud!!!Glad your on 9ers and points too!!!!!Wish I could pull trigger on o/u but just too tough to call!!!49ers will have some tricks in thier playbook and hell any team that onside kicks to open half of super bowl(saints) will probably be up to some hijinx too!!!Will the tide be up(field below sea level)making for crappy playing surface affecting Saints receivers ability to run crisp routes????Could go on....Thanx for the season and look fwd to next!!!!!!

thanks chief! Bad footing is worse for DBs. All reports say the field is in good shape. I think good footing actually favors the speed of the 9ers defense.

Diggin your new avatar seer - is that our boy Timmy the ladies' man?

Yes it is. I really like today's plays. I think the break from games for a few days got me back on track. These almost seemed easy (although I hate saying that). We shall see.

[sweethook]

Part of me hopes for a denver win, the other part of me hopes for tebow to tear his ACL

are you really full of hate

[The Seer]

adding:
NO/SF under 47 -115 .5 unit
field in good shape actually favors 49ers speed on defense especially at LBer

[jihadvillager]

adding:
NO/SF under 47 -115 .5 unit
field in good shape actually favors 49ers speed on defense especially at LBer

like it!-BOL to us

[jihadvillager]

Bs pi

[jihadvillager]

Fumble to sf!

[The Seer]

Fumble to sf!

That defense is just too physical for the Saints. Fumble and already knocked out two players. There has been some damn hard ass hits out there. I love that old school football.