Nadal Is More Of A Threat Than Fed To Overtake Sampras

[jjgold]

I think Fed can win 2 more majors tops, he definitely has lost a little but still a threat to win majors. Raffy is going to win at least 6-8 French Opens, 3-5 Wimbeldons, 2-4 Aussies, 3-5 USA Opens


Of Course barring injuires

[SBR Lou]

Pretty accurate post.

[jjgold]

I have never seen a guy in Nadal with so much power, speed and finesse.

Johnny Mac thinks this guy has all the tools to be the best ever.

[EaglesPhan36]

If he wins the Aussie or US Open, then I think he does. Also will be interesting next year to see how he responds at Wimbledon after the big break through.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

The big risk with Nadal is burnout. Most of the clay court runner-bunnies achieve most in their early 20s, and disappear by 25. It even happened to Borg.

Also, he's shown nothing to suggest he can win hard court slams yet. His best effort at the US is one quarter final, and last time he went out in the 4th round. His one semi final at the Aussie Open this year, he got murdered by Tsonga. The new Australian court type makes it even more difficult - 2007 was a court speed more suited to him, yet he still got soundly beaten by Gonzalez.

Of course, plenty time to improve, but winning Wimbledon means nothing wrt hard court slams. So few players out there can move properly on grass - Nadal is a total natural. At the hard court slams, you have ten times the number of players competent on the surface, and thus so many that can beat him from the back of the court. On clay and now grass, no-one can.

[WileOut]

Nadal is not good on hard courts. Thats 2 majors a year he will never win. Johny Mac has said a billion times that Federer is the best ever and he is right. Fed is the best player of all time. He can play on all courts. Nadal cannot play on hard courts and unfortunately for him half the tournaments are played on hard courts.

I think Nadal is on some kind of performance enhancer. The shots he hit today are physically impossible. The soft clay and grass courts are forgiving on his neanderthal body. He is already starting to show the large brow. He wont blow out a knee on them but he will if he tries it on hard courts. He still almost lost even though he was probably cheating. Its a shame really, Fed should be the record holder for 6 straight Wimbledons.

[hoopster42]

jj, dude, i love rafa and have propped him up many times on this very board, but slow down bro, you're getting way too ahead of yourself,

rafa has done NOTHING at the US Open and NOTHING at the Aussie except one semifinal (2008) where Tsonga destroyed him

rafa's game does not translate well to hard court, plus Djokovic is the best hardcourt player in the game right now,

rafa's game is so physical and his knees so bad, that he'll only play at a high level for about 5 more yrs, give or take, i give him 4 more french's and 1 more wimbledon, and that's it

10 GRAND SLAMS for RAFA in his entire career, write that down and we'll talk about it in 5 yrs

btw, i absolutely love rafa's gm, and he's a great kid also, but this talk about him taking over tennis when he's done nothing at 2 of the slams is ludicrous

UNLESS THE AUSSIE AND US OPENS SWITCH TO CLAY OR GRASS, RAFA WILL CONTINUE STRUGGLING THERE, YOU'LL SEE IN LATE AUGUST and again in JANUARY, he struggles on hard courts and it will not change until Federer, Tsonga, Djokovic and the other big hitters are all gone, and guess what:

Djokovic and Tsonga are not going anywhere. shit, even andy murray can beat rafa on a hard court

come on JJ, you're better than this

[hoopster42]

Nadal is not good on hard courts. Thats 2 majors a year he will never win. Johny Mac has said a billion times that Federer is the best ever and he is right. Fed is the best player of all time. He can play on all courts. Nadal cannot play on hard courts and unfortunately for him half the tournaments are played on hard courts.

I think Nadal is on some kind of performance enhancer. The shots he hit today are physically impossible. The soft clay and grass courts are forgiving on his neanderthal body. He is already starting to show the large brow. He wont blow out a knee on them but he will if he tries it on hard courts. He still almost lost even though he was probably cheating. Its a shame really, Fed should be the record holder for 6 straight Wimbledons.

you, Sir, understand tennis. GREAT POST,

[BuddyBear]

No. It seems weird to say this but Nadal may be better than Federer (12-6 hh) but Federer will go down as a better player than Nadal when all is said and done.

Nadal will eventually burn out. Clay is a very difficult surface to play on and takes its toll on a players feets and knees. Even though Nadal has been largely injury free in his career, he has begun to show signs of injuries popping up here and there. He might experience the same fate as Gustavo Kuerten did. Great clay court player but had all sort of injuries. Even so, Nadal will go down as the greatest clay court player in tennis history.

[hoopster42]

The big risk with Nadal is burnout. Most of the clay court runner-bunnies achieve most in their early 20s, and disappear by 25. It even happened to Borg.

Also, he's shown nothing to suggest he can win hard court slams yet. His best effort at the US is one quarter final, and last time he went out in the 4th round. His one semi final at the Aussie Open this year, he got murdered by Tsonga. The new Australian court type makes it even more difficult - 2007 was a court speed more suited to him, yet he still got soundly beaten by Gonzalez.

Of course, plenty time to improve, but winning Wimbledon means nothing wrt hard court slams. So few players out there can move properly on grass - Nadal is a total natural. At the hard court slams, you have ten times the number of players competent on the surface, and thus so many that can beat him from the back of the court. On clay and now grass, no-one can.

i didn't read this earlier, another GREAT POST just like wile's

[hoopster42]

No. It seems weird to say this but Nadal may be better than Federer (12-6 hh) but Federer will go down as a better player than Nadal when all is said and done.

Nadal will eventually burn out. Clay is a very difficult surface to play on and takes its toll on a players feets and knees. Even though Nadal has been largely injury free in his career, he has begun to show signs of injuries popping up here and there. He might experience the same fate as Gustavo Kuerten did. Great clay court player but had all sort of injuries. Even so, Nadal will go down as the greatest clay court player in tennis history.

buddy, is your 12-6 number the slams totals?

if it is, its actually federer 12, nadal 5 (4 french's + wimbledon)

[hoopster42]

oh sorry, it's 12-6 head to head, got it.

[hoopster42]

rafa is 115-2 in his last 117 on clay, plus he had the record 81 match winning streak on clay, so yeah, you've gotta say he's either the best clay courter ever, or tied with borg for the best ever right now, hopefully to surpass borg in the next yr or 2

[mathdotcom]

like hoopster said

Nadal is way behind on hard courts

[BuddyBear]

buddy, is your 12-6 number the slams totals?

if it is, its actually federer 12, nadal 5 (4 french's + wimbledon)

Yes, FED has 12 grand slams and Nadal has 5 grand slams.

But the oddity lies in the fact that when Federer and Nadal have played against one another, Nadal has won 12 of the 18 matches. Hence the 12-6 head to head lead for Nadal.

Nadal is one of just a handful of tennis players who has a winning record vs. Federer and certainly the most wins than any other player.

[jjgold]

We shall see

No one thought Nadal could ever win a set off Fed on grass and now he has his number. He almost beat him last year and wins this year.

[hoopster42]

We shall see

No one thought Nadal could ever win a set off Fed on grass and now he has his number. He almost beat him last year and wins this year.

we shall see is right. JJ, i've known about rafa since he was on the junior circuit before all the johnnie-come-lately newbies came around and started to tout him -- not making a judgement on you, just a point. i knew nadal would become a force on grass because the wimbledon sod was changed in 2001 to a slower court and the tennis balls were switched out to slightly larger, slower balls (hold the stupid sexual jokes please). i'm not gonna say i knew he would beat fed, but i told my buddies in 06 and 07 that he had a great shot to make the final, this yr i said he had a great chance to get to and win the final

federer has had some problems against his toughest opponents this yr, djokovic at aussie, nadal on clay, nadal now on grass.

you are overreacting to nadal's win today on grass, thinking it will translate to hardcourt success, and it won't. the hard courts cannot be changed like grass can, they remain too fast and too hard on his knees, and there are also more hard court specialists than grass or clay specialist.

all of the following guys are better than nadal on hard court or very capable of beating him:

Djokovic (best hardcourt player in the world)
Federer (2nd best current hardcourt player in the world)
Davydenko
Ferrer
Roddick
Blake
Tsonga
Murray
Nalbandian
Gonzalez

shit, even Carlos Moya made the semis at the US Open last yr

and also, JJ, think about historically, do you think Nadal is more talented for his time period than these guys were:

Lendl (8 slams)
Connors (8 slams)
Agassi (8 slams)
McEnroe (7)
Wilander (7)
Becker (6)
Edberg (6)

do you have any idea HOW GREAT these 7 guys were that i mentioned? and they couldn't even win more than 8. they are tennis immortals, all of them household names in the late 70's and 80's

you're trying to give Nadal 15 and he beats Sampras's record?

Aint happening, and you'll remember me in 5-7 yrs and say, damn, that guy hoopster knew his shit

[pimike]

Nadal will NOT win the US OPEN

[SBR Lou]

Nadal will NOT win the US OPEN

Federer's only shot at winning another Wimbledon or a French Open is for Rafa to get injured and withdraw. Nadal is now a clear #1, and Federer is #2.

[hoopster42]

Federer's only shot at winning another Wimbledon or a French Open is for Rafa to get injured and withdraw. Nadal is now a clear #1, and Federer is #2.

clay courts, no way federer beats a healthy nadal, but on grass, this match was very close today, federer had numerous break points, tons of them, but blew almost all of them, if they played again in 3 days, federer could easily win the 5-setter by correcting the mistakes, ie, a little better luck and Nadal a little less luck,

if you think Nadal dominated Federer today, you need to watch the whole match again tomorrow evening at 7 pm eastern time on espn classic,

[jjgold]

Everyone in Tennis world already agrees Nadal is best clay court player ever and he is only 22. He can dominate clay and grass and go down as best ever period. Very few players win on all surfaces.

[WileOut]

you, Sir, understand tennis. GREAT POST,

Thanks. Nadal is definately ahead of Fed on clay, but that could change. Fed is capable of the doing the impossible. Fed will win the French before its over.

On grass Fed is still the better player. Yes he lost by a hair today but if they play 10 times Fed wins 6 or 7.

On hard courts Fed is better as well.

So Fed is better on 2 out of 3 surfaces. That means Fed is the better player.

Watch what I tell you, Fed will find out if Nadal is on the juice and if he is Fed will get on the juice as well. Then you will see Fed obliterate Nadal consistently.

Can you imagine Fed on performance enhancers like Nadal is on?

[SBR Lou]

Wile out, what's your basis for believing Nadal is taking performance enhancers, his physique?

[jjgold]

I have never seen a tennis player so powerful as Nadal he is young and strong.

[hoopster42]

Thanks. Nadal is definately ahead of Fed on clay, but that could change. Fed is capable of the doing the impossible. Fed will win the French before its over.

On grass Fed is still the better player. Yes he lost by a hair today but if they play 10 times Fed wins 6 or 7.

On hard courts Fed is better as well.

So Fed is better on 2 out of 3 surfaces. That means Fed is the better player.

Watch what I tell you, Fed will find out if Nadal is on the juice and if he is Fed will get on the juice as well. Then you will see Fed obliterate Nadal consistently.

Can you imagine Fed on performance enhancers like Nadal is on?

i do not believe Nadal is on anything -- these guys are tested regularly, and the dopers get busted. maybe he's using a masker, but keep in mind that he has great sports pedigree in this family, his uncle toni who coaches him was a pro player, tennis. nadal has good genes in his family.

and to your point that Fed will win the french before he's done, i don't believe it will happen unless rafa gets hurt and misses the french. since 2005, nadal is 4-0 against him and 12-3 in sets won vs. federer, just complete domination, obliteration,

dude, federer will be 27 next month, nearly 28 by the time the french 09 comes around in late may next yr, how in the world will he get it done, if anything, he's regressing, nadal absolutely destroyed him in straight sets at the french this yr

fed has about 5-7 more chances to win another 2 grand slams to tie pete or another 3 to surpass him (08 us open, 09 aussie, wimbledon and us open, 2010 aussie, wimbledon, and us open)
and then he turns 29 and he's basically done.

did you notice i did not mention the french in there? thats because as long as rafa is 80% healthy, he will destroy fed there because rafa is only 22, he will continue getting better until he's 26 or 27,

and djokovic is the best hardcourt player in the world, fed better look the hell out

[WileOut]

The way he plays crazyl. I played competitive tennis for 10 years. Never could afford a coach like other kids but still won 4 tourneys and was ranked in the top 15 in Georgia which was at the time the 2nd most competitive state for my age bracket behind California. My cousin won the Georgia state singles championship as a Junior in high school. He could have easily gone pro, he was better than me but he got into drugs and died from an overdose at 26. I practiced against him from a kid on. We couldnt afford a coach and lessons like the other kids.

So what I'm saying is that I have lots of playing experience and have seen and played against great players. The shots Nadal hit on the run today at 100 MPH from his ankles with the topspin and precision he put on the ball is physically impossible from what I have seen. Also, and the main thing, is the balls he ran down. On grass you cannot run down balls at all. He made it look like Fed was hitting into a clay court. He is on something.

Also, he puts so much topspin on the ball he was making Fed miss gimme shots like in the last point. Its ludacris to think a person can put so much topspin on the ball as to make the best player who ever lived miss a shot that was hit to him right up the middle and landed on the service line. He creates the most spin on the ball than anybody ever has on his ground strokes. His serve is not as strong because serving requires more flexibility and his arms are too big for him to ever have a very big serve like his groundstrokes are.

[SBR Lou]

The way he plays crazyl. I played competitive tennis for 10 years. Never could afford a coach like other kids but still won 4 tourneys and was ranked in the top 15 in Georgia which was at the time the 2nd most competitive state for my age bracket behind California. My cousin won the Georgia state singles championship as a Junior in high school. He could have easily gone pro, he was better than me but he got into drugs and died from an overdose at 26. I practiced against him from a kid on. We couldnt afford a coach and lessons like the other kids.

So what I'm saying is that I have lots of playing experience and have seen and played against great players. The shots Nadal hit on the run today at 100 MPH from his ankles with the topspin and precision he put on the ball is physically impossible from what I have seen. Also, and the main thing, is the balls he ran down. On grass you cannot run down balls at all. He made it look like Fed was hitting into a clay court. He is on something.

Also, he puts so much topspin on the ball he was making Fed miss gimme shots like in the last point. Its ludacris to think a person can put so much topspin on the ball as to make the best player who ever lived miss a shot that was hit to him right up the middle and landed on the service line. He creates the most spin on the ball than anybody ever has on his ground strokes. His serve is not as strong because serving requires more flexibility and his arms are too big for him to ever have a very big serve like his groundstrokes are.

Sorry to hear about your cousin and thanks for sharing your experiences and insight in this. I have no tennis experience to doubt what you're saying, I would just hope that things are on the up and up but then again sometimes things simply aren't. Even if it's true, I still think Fed will beat Nadal in a big finals before all is said and done.

[WileOut]

Hoopster Fed is having an off year. Agassi did the same thing many times. Took years off. He will get on something like the other players and come back with guns one year and dust off Nadal on the clay.

Very easy to get past the drug testing in tennis because it is not scrutinized yet for that. It will change soon mark my words. I predict Fed gets on the juice and completes the grand slam next year with nobody coming close. That opens an investigation as other players complain about him like they probably are now about Nadal. Then tennis will be exposed with steroids. Just about every other sport has it. Its naive to think tennis, a one on one sport, doesnt.

[WileOut]

Crazyl thanks for the sympathy. He really threw away great talent.

[hoopster42]

2 pts wileout to counter what you are saying above:

#1) it has been talked about ad nauseum that the grass courts at wimbledon have become more like clay courts since 2001 because a) they changed the grass type there, and b) the tennis balls are larger. every tennis expert on tv and on the internet who writes for publications, agrees that the new wimbledon is much different from the old wimbledon, and it hurts big servers like roddick because the court plays much slower than before. this explains how nadal can track down balls.

frankly, i'm surprised that you haven't heard of or are not talking about the slower grass court at wimbledon

#2) if tennis can test and bust the Mariano Puerta's and the Guillermo Canas' of the world for doping then why can't they catch nadal?

the truth is, you can tell that his muscles are more natural than the above guys i mentioned. when i saw the above guys it was obvious they were on something because there entire body was bulked up, not just their arms. nadal looks naturally big.

i can tell when a chick has fake , and i can tell when a dude is on something that his helping him build muscle, whether steroids or whatever

#3) Federer will NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER take a banned substance, i guarantee it

he made it this far naturally and would NEVER jeopardize his legacy like barry bonds, clemens and these other shit heads did

[HeeeHAWWWW]

i do not believe Nadal is on anything -- these guys are tested regularly, and the dopers get busted. maybe he's using a masker, but keep in mind that he has great sports pedigree in this family, his uncle toni who coaches him was a pro player, tennis. nadal has good genes in his family.

His other uncle wasn't too bad at sports either. 5 Spanish titles with Barcelona, a Champion's league winners medal and a bazillion caps for Spain.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

So what I'm saying is that I have lots of playing experience and have seen and played against great players. The shots Nadal hit on the run today at 100 MPH from his ankles with the topspin and precision he put on the ball is physically impossible from what I have seen. Also, and the main thing, is the balls he ran down. On grass you cannot run down balls at all. He made it look like Fed was hitting into a clay court. He is on something.

Wimbledon is slower than it used to be, and Nadal is the fastest tennis player on tour. Nothing more sinister than that I think - you're just seeing a true great at work.

Watch Nadal on the faster American hard courts in a few weeks, won't be able to run down anything like as many balls. Most of them are faster courts than Wimbledon nowadays.

[mathdotcom]

Nadal +500 to win US Open.
Federer -125
Djoko +300

Federer will take it.

[WileOut]

hoopster I just read your post. Yes I knew about how they slowed the courts down at Wimbledon. But it is still grass so it is still fast. Mainly though the ball bouces much lower than clay courts where the ball jumps up high. The slowest grass court is a lot faster than the fastest clay court. At Wimbledon despite the slowing down the ball still stays low and skids, and with the way Federer flattens out his shots Nadal is forced to make those shots from below his waist. On the run. And it is much harder to get your footing on a grass court than on a clay court. Which makes his passing shots on the run even more improbable.

Remember its not just the speed of the ball coming off the court its the way it bounces. Even on the slower type of grass courts they have now the ball still stays low and skids and the footing is not there to run.

On grass you cannot slide into the shot like you can on clay. Grass is tougher to get your footing than any other court. I think he is cheating. Thats just my opinion. We will see in the future.

As for the hard courts they vary. The US Open is faster than the Australian because of the type of surface.

Wimbledon is still faster than the US Open. They have slowed down Wimbledon to get longer rallies but it is still the fastest major. Not even comparable to the French which is slow as molasses and the ball will bounce up toward your head on the kick serves some of those guys have. The 3 different surfaces mainly used are all very different from each other. 3 different games.

I'm actually reading now that they are slowing down the hard court tourneys too including the US Open.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/tennis/2006-07-16-surface-tension_x.htm

[hoopster42]

good discussion wile, i really respect your knowledge. i just dont agree much with the article. the article was written 2 yrs ago, and since then the us open finals have featured fedex over roddick and fedex over djokovic. 3 fast court players who all excelled even after the courts supposedly became slower, it doesnt jive with the article