Mansion change in format? Sellers now pay 1% and buyers 0%?...

pags11 · 03-31-06, 07:31 PM

anyone else get this email?...

rm18 · 03-31-06, 07:35 PM

you are right about what you said in the 1st post, don't understand the motivation though. Although this will make them a -104 book though

bookie · 03-31-06, 07:54 PM

I find this incredible. Since they have so few people offering bets dis-incentivizing them isn't going to touch their bottom line one way or another, but you would think they would have kept it like they had it.

I guess that wasn't working, so they decided on some change for the sake of change.

To me they're now saying, "The heck with being an exchange. Let's get ready to rumble."

pags11 · 03-31-06, 10:34 PM

I think they did this so that more of their money moves through the market...fine with me, since I get a lot of my -102's, +100's and +102's at pinnacle and matchbook...kind of nice knowing I won't have to pay more that -104 for a wager next football season...

acw · 04-01-06, 01:13 AM

In my point of view the only reason why they have to charge something on either side is to avoid that the exchange will be used for person-to-person transfers.

Anyhow how much longer will it take them to knock BetFair out of business?
I still do not understand why Mansion does not have the betting-in-running yet, 70% of the normal action.
Also their exchange remains the most user unfriendly.

Doug · 04-01-06, 01:53 AM

Originally posted by acw

In my point of view the only reason why they have to charge something on either side is to avoid that the exchange will be used for person-to-person transfers.

Anyhow how much longer will it take them to knock BetFair out of business?
I still do not understand why Mansion does not have the betting-in-running yet, 70% of the normal action.
Also their exchange remains the most user unfriendly.

How exactly would an exchange make any money by not charging anybody anything ? Isn't that the same as a book having both sides at +100 ?

From what I know Betfair is a giant.

acw · 04-01-06, 07:54 AM

Originally posted by Doug

How exactly would an exchange make any money by not charging anybody anything ? Isn't that the same as a book having both sides at +100 ?

Huh, who ever told you that Mansion is supposed to make money?

slacker00 · 04-01-06, 09:21 AM

I got this email as well. I had just pulled out all of my money from Mansion, so I thought they were giving me a personalized special offer to lure me back. Basically, they were offering the same lines as Pinnacle, so I figured why bother with two accounts and decided to just use Pinnacle. It'll be interesting to see if Mansion stays with this format or not. If they still have this going for football season, maybe I'll try them again. I was impressed with their quick payouts and fast customer service response to emails.

bubba · 04-01-06, 09:54 AM

can someone explain how mansion works. im kinda confused. are there low limits. it seems like there prices are the best, but im not a member there. is it different when logged in? i dont see a review anywhere.

Mudcat · 04-01-06, 10:12 AM

Here is something for starters, bubba

Mansion may have the same juice as Pinnacle but, if things are like last year, the lines will be staggered.

For me, I absolutely gotta have both.

And this change only makes things better.

pags11 · 04-01-06, 07:29 PM

yeah, if you are using other exchanges this is definitely better...you can still make your offers, but you can't really beat -104 24/7 from a great book/ exchange...

dog · 04-02-06, 11:15 PM

Mansion was really good before, and I really like the change, now you pay no exchange fees when you win, the 1% was just a bother to deal with as much as anything else.

I understand Betfair doesn't take players from the U.S., otherwise I'd play there also.

jumper · 04-02-06, 11:48 PM

mansion is great.now its -104 instead of -105,without the pinnacle lean.you can often get the best odds here.learn something new everyday.i need to transfer money with a friend,ill use an exchange and save the 3%neteller fee,good post

noyb · 04-03-06, 05:42 AM

speaking of mansion: while trying to load their exchange now i get the message "Welcome to MANSION.com. Please wait while the site loads... " and nothing happens. am i the only one?

noyb · 04-03-06, 05:47 AM

and talking about their commission structure: it's been said, but it just doesn't make any sense. the old structure encouraged making offers instead of matching them, and thus increasing liquidity on the exchange.
in this new structure to avoid the 1% commission you just have to back instead of lay (that's how I read it in any case), especially in 1 2 markets backing the one is equal to laying the other, so if the offers are kind of equal you just gotta remember to back instead of lay and you avoid the 1%. I don't see the point from Mansion's standpoint.

aca · 04-03-06, 06:28 AM

Yesterday I get -115 for CWS!

Pinncle haved -116 in that moments!

Betfair is big crap for US sports! They have 5% comisions on winning amounts!

CWS was -119 and with 5% pay you get -125

Masion is very nice place for small player like me!

When smart player lay, ask for a few % lower price (odds) and 1% will not make big problem him! Buyer will now have 1% lower odds and no commisions!

slacker00 · 04-03-06, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by noyb

speaking of mansion: while trying to load their exchange now i get the message "Welcome to MANSION.com. Please wait while the site loads... " and nothing happens. am i the only one?

I had the same problem at first. You've got to load/upgrade some kind of shockwave add-on, you should get some kind of error message or something eventually. This was my only complaint about Mansion. Nobody else uses shockwave, plus not everyone has broadband, or even DSL, so installing this stuff can be a pain.

pags11 · 04-04-06, 02:15 AM

it definitely will increase liquidity as most people don't want to wait around to see if their offers get matched...

imgv94 · 04-04-06, 03:22 AM

Their lines wont be that much better than pinny? Right?

noyb · 04-04-06, 04:56 AM

thanks slacker for the advice, the problem seems to have solved itself though..

pags, i don't see your point at all. you're right most people don't want to wait around to see if their offer gets matched, that's why in the old structure these people didn't have to pay any commission as a sort of bonus.
this incentive is now gone, so why would anyone still offer something and wait around? as a consequence liquidity will drop as there is less money available for people to match, because there are less offers.
ofcourse this is all purely theoretical, and mansion will problably have some practical reasons for the change, it's just that i don't see them.

acw · 04-04-06, 05:58 AM

noyb,

Mansion does not want others to make offers!
They only want to make them themselves.

Hope this explains.

JoshW · 04-04-06, 06:14 AM

There has been no indication yet that Mansion has any type of short term plan to make money. I have to believe they only way they will ever make make any of tens of millions they have spent is to have either their casino or more likely poker site take off.

This move seems to me a giving up or at least a realization that lots of offers by players aren't going to be made, so now they go back to booking but just using the exchange which is what they were doing anyway, now betting with them is just a little cheaper. Not much of a shift of 1% to 1% but for active buyers will be nice over long term.

Mansion story continues LOL :|

Ganchrow · 04-04-06, 09:25 AM

In theory it doesn't really matter who actually pays the commission. The extent to which the real cost is allocated to buyer versus seller is a function more of market tenor than of who ultimately tenders payment. Because a seller knows that he'll need to fork over 1% of his winnings, a rational seller would place his offer slightly higher than he would absent commissions.

This is akin to what we see in most real-estate markets. Only the seller of a property physically pays brokerage fees, but yet the property's buyer is nevertheless impacted by their presence insofar as they inflates the seller's offering price.

But while it doesn't matter from a value perspective whether the buyer or seller ultimately pays exchange fees, there is nevertheless in this case a very good structural reason as to why such fees are better borne by the seller. Specifically, we would expect that (in general) most Mansion sellers are more sophisticated investors than their buy side counterparts. As such they not only do they better understand the concept of exchange fees, but also they are likely more comfortable doing the necessary calculations in order to deterrmine the true cost of a contract in the presence of such fees. In this manner, making a wager at an exchange as a buyer (a price taker) will be no different than it would be at a normal sportsbook -- there will be no extra commissions and the exact price the buyer sees will be the exact price he pays.

So the next time a person comes to the forum asking about how the Mansion exchange works, rather than needing to refer him to Mudcat's rather excellent Mansion exchange tutorial, he could more simply be told that if all he wants to do is place a bet, then the Mansion exchange would be functionally no different than Bodog or Sportsbook.com ...

tacomax · 04-04-06, 09:33 AM

Originally posted by ganchrow

As such they not only do they better understand the concept of exchange fees, but also they are likely more comfortable doing the necessary calculations in order to deterrmine the true cost of a contract in the presence of such fees. In this manner, making a wager at an exchange as a buyer (a price taker) will be no different than it would be at a normal sportsbook -- there will be no extra commissions and the exact price the buyer sees will be the exact price he pays.

I'd say that's the primary advantage from Mansion's side. To people betting, it's like a sportsbook but it's still an exchange for anyone wanting to offer prices.

Also I don't quite understand how it can be said that Mansion don't want people to make offers. Matchbook charge 2% on offers, Betfair charge 5% and Mansion charge only 1%. That's a big incentive to make offers on an exchange if you ask me.

Ganchrow · 04-04-06, 02:25 PM

I've already been asked this a couple of times today:

Q: If you place an offer on the Mansion exchange at a line of L, what would the equivalent line be at a sportsbook?

for L <= -101.01 (-102, -103, etc.)
sportsbook equivalent = -L * 99%
for -100 <= L < -101.01
sportsbook equivalent = 10,000 / ( L * 99%)
for L >= +100
sportsbook equivalent = -L / 99%

Examples:

A Mansion offer at -110 is the equivalent of buying at a sportsbook at -(-110)*99% = +108.9.
A Mansion offer at -101 is the equivalent of buying at a sportsbook at 10,000 / (-101 * 99%) = -100.01.
A Mansion offer at +150 is the equivalent of buying at a sportsbook at -150/99% = -151.52.

So if we presuppose that buyer and seller each assume an equal share of the contingent commission, then this would imply that the closer the line is to even, the greater the fee paid on a percentage basis. For example, a line offered and taken at +100, would be the equivalent of slightly more than a 0.25% theoretical hold, while a line offered and taken at -1000 would correspond to a sportsbook theoretical hold of 0.083% (one-twelfth of a percent).

JoshW · 04-04-06, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by ganchrow

So the next time a person comes to the forum asking about how the Mansion exchange works, rather than needing to refer them to Mudcat's rather excellent Mansion exchange tutorial, they could more simply be told that if all they want to do is make a bet, then the Mansion exchange should be functionally no different than Bodog or Sportsbook.com ...

I think this is the key point.

marc · 04-04-06, 05:33 PM

ganchrow,

Excellent post. I also could not understand the logic for the change, but what you say makes sense.

Personally I think charign the buyer makes more sense. Assuming grnachow is right and the sellers are more sophisticated and will know to add in the correct amount juice, whereas the buyers typically aren't as bright, under the old system the odds actually looked better than they really were. Now the odds that the buyers see while being the true odds the lines will looks worse than they sued to be. It just seems from amarketing astandpoint you would rather disseminate better markets that don't reflect the true costs, then dissemnate a market that does reflect the true costs (though the latter is probably the more honest approach)

jumper · 04-04-06, 05:34 PM

mansions lines beat pinnacles an all my mlb plays today,hats off to mansion.hope they geyt a ton of action this baseball season

pags11 · 04-04-06, 05:44 PM

acw,

thanks for your explanation...

noyb,

I definitely think they did this to get more of their money into play...the incentive now is to take the -104 and not think twice as it will beat most offers anywhere else a majority of the time...I also think they were getting hammered with winning bets from sharps that were always getting +102, +100 lines...so, they'll make the sharp pay a little more and create more of an incentive for buyers not to wait around as much for offers (as most gamblers are just that and not handicappers, in a rush all of the time and let emotion get the best of them, thus taking the -104)...kind of like the buy it now option on eBay...people will pay a little more to secure a bet, especially if they don't have a chance to check to see if their offer is matched the day of the game...

pags11 · 04-04-06, 05:48 PM

ganchrow, god damn...you continue to amaze me brother...and you finish third in the bracket pool...

TLD · 04-05-06, 01:11 AM

Just wanted to say I appreciate Ganchrow’s posts that I’ve read. Consistently intelligent and civil. I’m a big James Randi fan too, so that helps.

Ganchrow · 04-05-06, 01:17 AM

Originally posted by TLD

I’m a big James Randi fan too, so that helps.

Yep, James Randi certainly is one hell of a good guy.

imgv94 · 04-05-06, 01:39 AM

Originally posted by ganchrow

Yep, James Randi certainly is one hell of a good guy.

Has anyone attempted his million dollar challenge yet?

Ganchrow · 04-05-06, 01:42 AM

Originally posted by imgv94

Has anyone attempted his million dollar challenge yet?

There have been more than 1,000 applicants to date.