The Inside Wagering Line From Pinnacle Sports Book By Simon Noble
With big busts and Georgetown, Bradley, Wichita State and George Mason
delivering big upsets, we say goodbye to the reigning champs and all
representatives from the Big Ten as the mid-majors march on in the NCAA
Tournament.
As we move into the second week of the tourney with the Sweet 16
delivering a mix of perennial powers and Cinderella stories, I’d like to
focus this week’s Pulse on an often overlooked, but potentially highly
lucrative area for savvy bettors * second half wagering.
One of the most important things in evaluating a second half spread is
assessing what happened in the first half of the game and trying to
interpret what affect it will have on the remainder of the game. Was one
team remarkably cold or on fire in the first half? Are any key players in
foul trouble or were there any injuries? Does the pace of the game or the
way the referees are calling it favor one team more than another?
If you’re looking to find an edge on a second half spread, then a good
place to focus your attention are games that are lined to go through zero
in the second half. A game can never fall zero and one point victories
are the rarest of any of the single digit numbers in college basketball.
Oddsmakers and bettors often underestimate the mathematical significance
of this.
For example, if a team is down by 2 points and is favored to win the
second half by 3.5 points, there is a good chance that there will be some
value laying the points. However, if handicapping still leads you to a
play on the underdog in this scenario, a wager on the dog on the moneyline
would generally be a strong play. As a rule, the equivalent moneyline for
a +3.5 (-105) underdog in this situation is around +139. Almost without
fail you can expect to find +150 or higher as bettors drive the line up,
underestimating the influence of the spread going through the zero.
Another area where you can also often find an advantage in College hoops
are second half totals, which can be some of the most interesting wagers
out there. Unlike the NBA where the second half total is usually close to
the line on the first half of the game, second half totals in College
basketball are on average almost 8 points higher than first half totals
for the same game.
This is due to the shot clock and its affect on fouling late in the game,
which leads to some interesting handicapping scenarios for the total. If a
team is up by a lot at the half and you think they can maintain a big
enough lead to avoid late fouling situations, the under can be a strong
play. In addition, the chance of an under ruining overtime would also be
lessened.
Another mathematical angle to consider with these 8 point differentials is
that they aren't constant across all games. Match-ups that have a higher
game total (above 145 for the full forty minutes) will have on average
less than 8 extra points scored in the second half. Interestingly
match-ups with a total below 130 for the full game will generally have
more than 8 extra points scored on average during the second half. It all
seems counterintuitive, but will hopefully help lead you to a better
mathematical line than the market bears.
These are all factors to consider as well as ensuring that you always play
at the best price available. As regular readers of this column will know,
this is one of the easiest ways for any player to increase their potential
winnings. Pinnacle Sports Book uses -105 style pricing on second half
sides and totals which offers bettors up to 50% better value than other
bookies.
At Pinnacle Sportsbetting you can even move the second half lines in your
favor on all NBA and NCAA tournament games using our unique second half
alternates. This is where we set up alternate lines for the second half
where the spread is adjusted by a further 5 to 9 points depending on the
closeness of the game.
While you consider these insider tips for wagering on the second half, you
may want to consider how the players been betting the games themselves.
LSU (+6 -105) vs. Duke
Before the tourney, Duke’s inexperience was highlighted as its biggest
weakness, but it was the Blue Devils freshmen that powered the team to a
74-61 victory over George Washington in the second round with a 1-2
Redick, Williams punch.
Despite being unable to cover in its second round victory over Texas A&M,
Louisiana State’s ability to weather a defensive struggle should serve the
Tigers well against Duke. LSU’s big men will be looking to shut down the
Blue Devils forwards in similar fashion as they limited the Aggies
second-leading scorer and top rebounder Joseph Jones to just six points
and four boards at the weekend.
Duke opened as a 5.5 point favorite and speculators quickly pushed the
line up to 6.5. Sharp money came in buying to 7 which prevented the line
from going higher. One syndicate quickly pushed the line out from 6.5 to
7.5 but this move was quickly rejected by the market and the line was
driven back to 6. We expect to receive public money on Duke for the rest
of the way until tip off with the sharps firing on LSU and probably
overpowering the public money. We think the game is a toss up that could
easily see LSU winning outright.
Gonzaga (+3.5 -108) vs. UCLA
The Zags proved they're much more than a one-man show Saturday in the
second round of the tournament, defeating Indiana 90-80 even though Adam
Morrison earned just 14 points on 5-of-17 shooting. With five other
players booking double digits, Gonzaga didn’t need the Player of the Year
frontrunner, but they’ll need him from here on out. No. 2 seed UCLA’s
tough defense doesn’t give up cheap points and they will be trying to get
back to the Final Four for the first time since their 1995 national
championship.
We opened UCLA as a 4 point favorite and received immediate two way action
at this number. Following a move by sharp money, the number was pushed
down to 3 where the majority of the money seems to be coming in on UCLA.
We anticipate that the line is likely to stay around 3.5 where we are now
seeing sharp action on both sides in a heavy volume game.
George Mason (-2 -107) vs. Wichita State
The upstart Patriots knocked the defending National Champions and
third-seeded Tar Heels out of the tournament with a 65-60 upset victory to
set up this mid-major match-up in the Sweet Sixteen. Wichita State, the
team who beat the Southeastern Conference's East division champions,
already knew how good George Mason was. Before the Patriots knocked off
two of last year’s Final Four teams in the opening rounds, they beat the
Shockers 70-67 last month as a 3.5 point underdog at Wichita State.
We opened the game with George Mason as a 1 point favorite and the line
was bet down to a pick’em. Since then we have seen steady sharp money on
the Patriots pushing the line back to -2 -107, as bettors expect George
Mason playing close to home to overcome the Wichita State Shockers.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds
on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and
online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet
betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting
requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now
with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
With big busts and Georgetown, Bradley, Wichita State and George Mason
delivering big upsets, we say goodbye to the reigning champs and all
representatives from the Big Ten as the mid-majors march on in the NCAA
Tournament.
As we move into the second week of the tourney with the Sweet 16
delivering a mix of perennial powers and Cinderella stories, I’d like to
focus this week’s Pulse on an often overlooked, but potentially highly
lucrative area for savvy bettors * second half wagering.
One of the most important things in evaluating a second half spread is
assessing what happened in the first half of the game and trying to
interpret what affect it will have on the remainder of the game. Was one
team remarkably cold or on fire in the first half? Are any key players in
foul trouble or were there any injuries? Does the pace of the game or the
way the referees are calling it favor one team more than another?
If you’re looking to find an edge on a second half spread, then a good
place to focus your attention are games that are lined to go through zero
in the second half. A game can never fall zero and one point victories
are the rarest of any of the single digit numbers in college basketball.
Oddsmakers and bettors often underestimate the mathematical significance
of this.
For example, if a team is down by 2 points and is favored to win the
second half by 3.5 points, there is a good chance that there will be some
value laying the points. However, if handicapping still leads you to a
play on the underdog in this scenario, a wager on the dog on the moneyline
would generally be a strong play. As a rule, the equivalent moneyline for
a +3.5 (-105) underdog in this situation is around +139. Almost without
fail you can expect to find +150 or higher as bettors drive the line up,
underestimating the influence of the spread going through the zero.
Another area where you can also often find an advantage in College hoops
are second half totals, which can be some of the most interesting wagers
out there. Unlike the NBA where the second half total is usually close to
the line on the first half of the game, second half totals in College
basketball are on average almost 8 points higher than first half totals
for the same game.
This is due to the shot clock and its affect on fouling late in the game,
which leads to some interesting handicapping scenarios for the total. If a
team is up by a lot at the half and you think they can maintain a big
enough lead to avoid late fouling situations, the under can be a strong
play. In addition, the chance of an under ruining overtime would also be
lessened.
Another mathematical angle to consider with these 8 point differentials is
that they aren't constant across all games. Match-ups that have a higher
game total (above 145 for the full forty minutes) will have on average
less than 8 extra points scored in the second half. Interestingly
match-ups with a total below 130 for the full game will generally have
more than 8 extra points scored on average during the second half. It all
seems counterintuitive, but will hopefully help lead you to a better
mathematical line than the market bears.
These are all factors to consider as well as ensuring that you always play
at the best price available. As regular readers of this column will know,
this is one of the easiest ways for any player to increase their potential
winnings. Pinnacle Sports Book uses -105 style pricing on second half
sides and totals which offers bettors up to 50% better value than other
bookies.
At Pinnacle Sportsbetting you can even move the second half lines in your
favor on all NBA and NCAA tournament games using our unique second half
alternates. This is where we set up alternate lines for the second half
where the spread is adjusted by a further 5 to 9 points depending on the
closeness of the game.
While you consider these insider tips for wagering on the second half, you
may want to consider how the players been betting the games themselves.
LSU (+6 -105) vs. Duke
Before the tourney, Duke’s inexperience was highlighted as its biggest
weakness, but it was the Blue Devils freshmen that powered the team to a
74-61 victory over George Washington in the second round with a 1-2
Redick, Williams punch.
Despite being unable to cover in its second round victory over Texas A&M,
Louisiana State’s ability to weather a defensive struggle should serve the
Tigers well against Duke. LSU’s big men will be looking to shut down the
Blue Devils forwards in similar fashion as they limited the Aggies
second-leading scorer and top rebounder Joseph Jones to just six points
and four boards at the weekend.
Duke opened as a 5.5 point favorite and speculators quickly pushed the
line up to 6.5. Sharp money came in buying to 7 which prevented the line
from going higher. One syndicate quickly pushed the line out from 6.5 to
7.5 but this move was quickly rejected by the market and the line was
driven back to 6. We expect to receive public money on Duke for the rest
of the way until tip off with the sharps firing on LSU and probably
overpowering the public money. We think the game is a toss up that could
easily see LSU winning outright.
Gonzaga (+3.5 -108) vs. UCLA
The Zags proved they're much more than a one-man show Saturday in the
second round of the tournament, defeating Indiana 90-80 even though Adam
Morrison earned just 14 points on 5-of-17 shooting. With five other
players booking double digits, Gonzaga didn’t need the Player of the Year
frontrunner, but they’ll need him from here on out. No. 2 seed UCLA’s
tough defense doesn’t give up cheap points and they will be trying to get
back to the Final Four for the first time since their 1995 national
championship.
We opened UCLA as a 4 point favorite and received immediate two way action
at this number. Following a move by sharp money, the number was pushed
down to 3 where the majority of the money seems to be coming in on UCLA.
We anticipate that the line is likely to stay around 3.5 where we are now
seeing sharp action on both sides in a heavy volume game.
George Mason (-2 -107) vs. Wichita State
The upstart Patriots knocked the defending National Champions and
third-seeded Tar Heels out of the tournament with a 65-60 upset victory to
set up this mid-major match-up in the Sweet Sixteen. Wichita State, the
team who beat the Southeastern Conference's East division champions,
already knew how good George Mason was. Before the Patriots knocked off
two of last year’s Final Four teams in the opening rounds, they beat the
Shockers 70-67 last month as a 3.5 point underdog at Wichita State.
We opened the game with George Mason as a 1 point favorite and the line
was bet down to a pick’em. Since then we have seen steady sharp money on
the Patriots pushing the line back to -2 -107, as bettors expect George
Mason playing close to home to overcome the Wichita State Shockers.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook is an online betting company providing the best odds
on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and
online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet
betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting
requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting so sign-up now
with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today!
