DAY ACTION DAY 2: PITT/NYM Over 7.5 +100

[EaglesPhan36]

Wind blowing W-NW, believe that is blowing OUT to RF-CF.

[donkdown]

Paver it is swirling although not there

Paver I have no desire to know

My main concern with wind is MPH and only because of my rug

Strong gusts could knock it off and cause a problem for me (right to left seems more of a threat to me)

Paver sometimes you do not get it

On sportsoptions it is saying wind is left to right 10-20 mph Big Gust so jj is right!!

[pavyracer]

On sportsoptions it is saying wind is left to right 10-20 mph Big Gust so jj is right!!

Well is left to right if JJ walks in north direction. What happens when JJ is walking south, east or west? If he keeps walking north all day he will end up in Canada.

[donkdown]

im sure he knows which way the ball park is paver!!

[donkdown]

gold go outside and do a video with your rug on but dont use the glue, so we can determine the wind for this play! thnks

[jjgold]

Well is left to right if JJ walks in north direction. What happens when JJ is walking south, east or west? If he keeps walking north all day he will end up in Canada.

[gilly6864]

who cares about the wind! these teams dont hit alot of home runs anyway..

[topgame85]

3 in the top of the first, could have been more, nice start

[firedawg]

like

[CHAZ]

Pirates are raping here lol

NIce call on the over

[vyomguy]

i guess this is going over.....6 runs already after top 2.

[No coincidences]

Who knew it would be this easy.

I took the under small, and I'd do it again given Pelfrey's home stats and Maholm's day stats.

Meh.

[topgame85]

Did not think it would be that big of a bang so quickly but saw the potential for some big innings.

[Lord and Master]

Who knew it would be this easy.

I took the under small, and I'd do it again given Pelfrey's home stats and Maholm's day stats.

Meh.

day stats? lol. this board is hilarious

[Rose']

Did not think it would be that big of a bang so quickly but saw the potential for some big innings.

Whats the second play big dawg?

[Cuse4tw]

[BiffTFinancial]

woot!

[Redscot]

Cash it! Nice call bro .

[EaglesPhan36]

day stats? lol. this board is hilarious

You miss the boat if you don't look at things like that. There are some dominant pitchers who for whatever reason are horrible when they make a day start and vice versa ... horrible overall pitchers that may throw well during the day. May not make sense, but it's definitely worth considering.

Nice win!

[No coincidences]

day stats? lol. this board is hilarious

Maholm has struggled against certain Met hitters in the past, but he had also given up just 5 ER in 26.2 day IP so far this season (1.69 ERA).

[topgame85]

10 runs 3 innings no sweating the game out today, giving this second play a little longer before I release it. Need my phone call from flyingillini on the 703 line .

[drfunkmaster]

easy winner!!

[Lord and Master]

Maholm has struggled against certain Met hitters in the past, but he had also given up just 5 ER in 26.2 day IP so far this season (1.69 ERA).

sample size my man

[donkdown]

[No coincidences]

sample size my man

I'm not saying it was a tell-all stat by any means, but it was worth considering -- same as how well Pelfrey has (had) pitched at home.

[Lord and Master]

I'm not saying it was a tell-all stat by any means, but it was worth considering -- same as how well Pelfrey has (had) pitched at home.

and so how much extra value over the true line did you grade both of these statistically insignificant considerations as?

[No coincidences]

and so how much extra value over the true line did you grade both of these statistically insignificant considerations as?

Well given the fact that the line was set at 7.5 and the under was being juiced, I wasn't the only one who saw a possible under play here. There was no other reason for this line to be less than 8 or even 8.5 -- especially if those statistics were as "insignificant" as you say.

Kind of stupid to be arguing about it after the fact, given the current score in the game.

[Lord and Master]

you didn't answer my question but....

Well given the fact that the line was set at 7.5 and the under was being juiced, I wasn't the only one who saw a possible under play here.

so because you had lay a decent price on 7.5 that made the under a play? lol

There was no other reason for this line to be less than 8 or even 8.5

so then by your handicapping the over was a clear bet....but you bet the under?

Kind of stupid to be arguing about it after the fact, given the current score in the game.

just because it went over doesn't mean under was a bad bet, i'm just laughing at your reasons for betting under

[No coincidences]

you didn't answer my question but....



so because you had lay a decent price on 7.5 that made the under a play? lol




so then by your handicapping the over was a clear bet....but you bet the under?




just because it went over doesn't mean under was a bad bet, i'm just laughing at your reasons for betting under

I'm saying that factors like Maholm's day stats this year and Pelfrey's home stats this year were taken into consideration when setting the line -- that's why it was 7.5 and not 8 or 8.5. Although the sample size may be small, they are legitimate because they're the most recent statistics on these two pitchers for this given season.

I'd like to know if you would be on here yucking it up if this game were 2-1 right now. Again, it's stupid to argue about it after the fact. Congrats on the win. It was a very, very small action play for me, so I'm not going to defend it further because it's really not that big of a deal.

If you think that sides and totals aren't set at a certain amount for a reason in baseball, well, good luck post-ASB. The "logic" angle used in betting the over today (so obvious it will go over 7.5! Look who's pitching!) is what wipes out bankrolls down the stretch of the season. You kind of indicated you were fading Pelfrey in this spot who, other than his recent start at NYY, had been very solid lately before today -- especially at home.

[Lord and Master]

I'm saying that factors like Maholm's day stats this year and Pelfrey's home stats this year were taken into consideration when setting the line

if they were already baked into the line then considering them is irrelevant

that's why it was 7.5 and not 8 or 8.5. Although the sample size may be small, they are legitimate because they're the most recent statistics on these two pitchers for this given season.

quite possible

I'd like to know if you would be on here yucking it up if this game were 2-1 right now.

i would, i said earlier the results don't negate the fact that a bet was positive expectation. i have never said you were wrong on the under, just that your reasoning for under seems ludicrous

Again, it's stupid to argue about it after the fact. Congrats on the win. It was a very, very small action play for me, so I'm not going to defend it further because it's really not that big of a deal.

i did not bet

If you think that sides and totals aren't set at a certain amount for a reason in baseball, well, good luck post-ASB.

of course they are but the point you can't beat a line by picking a side based on information that is used to set the line

The "logic" angle used in betting the over today (so obvious it will go over 7.5! Look who's pitching!) is what wipes out bankrolls down the stretch of the season.

what just as easily wipes bankrolls is betting based on superfluous reasoning

[topgame85]

All numbers are open to interpretation and stats and trends could always end up being too small a sample size. All of that information is open to speculation. As handicappers we are set with the task of 1st knowing the sport 2nd knowing the condition and 3rd knowing the stats, numbers etc. If you don't have a feel for the sport and the condition of "today" then the numbers mean nothing. I started as a horse player and the one thing you learn fast is although the numbers are a good general guide and play an important role what happens today does not always make sense with what happened last time or over the last 3 months or years. You must dig deep and find what the rest of the people don't see or understand or else you can't and won't win. This bomb just exploded 7-7 .

[firedawg]

nice call top

[Lord and Master]

All numbers are open to interpretation

wtf? that makes no sense

As handicappers we are set with the task of 1st knowing the sport 2nd knowing the condition and 3rd knowing the stats, numbers etc.

the math is 1st, 2nd, and 3rd....

If you don't have a feel for the sport and the condition of "today" then the numbers mean nothing.

if i had read this first i wouldn't have bothered to respond but i'm this far so i'll keep going

what happens today does not always make sense with what happened last time or over the last 3 months or years

correct, but you can assign a probability of x happening

You must dig deep and find what the rest of the people don't see or understand or else you can't and won't win.

correct, and that is why talking about day stats or a starter's home ERA is useless because the market knows this

[topgame85]

Play 2: WASH/ARI UNDER 9

Cake cash on the day game moving to 3-1, now it is time to get down on the late night action. Looking to cash this under when my home town Nats face Arizona tonight. First pitch 9:40pm good luck on tonights card gentleman.

[gilbert91016]