DAY ACTION DAY 2: PITT/NYM Over 7.5 +100

[flyingillini]

Another winner from my boy! Good call Topper!

[CHAZ]

I'm saying that factors like Maholm's day stats this year and Pelfrey's home stats this year were taken into consideration when setting the line -- that's why it was 7.5 and not 8 or 8.5. Although the sample size may be small, they are legitimate because they're the most recent statistics on these two pitchers for this given season.

I'd like to know if you would be on here yucking it up if this game were 2-1 right now. Again, it's stupid to argue about it after the fact. Congrats on the win. It was a very, very small action play for me, so I'm not going to defend it further because it's really not that big of a deal.

If you think that sides and totals aren't set at a certain amount for a reason in baseball, well, good luck post-ASB. The "logic" angle used in betting the over today (so obvious it will go over 7.5! Look who's pitching!) is what wipes out bankrolls down the stretch of the season. You kind of indicated you were fading Pelfrey in this spot who, other than his recent start at NYY, had been very solid lately before today -- especially at home.

Why even bother? Everyone is a critic after the fact. Its always annoying to see someone wanting to put in there own input and criticize others when they have nothing consistent of there own going.

[Lord and Master]

Why even bother? Everyone is a critic after the fact. Its always annoying to see someone wanting to put in there own input and criticize others when they have nothing consistent of there own going.

...

i said earlier the results don't negate the fact that a bet was positive expectation. i have never said you were wrong on the under

[No coincidences]

correct, and that is why talking about day stats or a starter's home ERA is useless because the market knows this

You're assuming the casual bettor knows information like this, or even bothers to look stuff like that up? I guarantee anyone just glancing at this game knowing a little about the two teams/pitchers but not digging any deeper pounded this over today, not even thinking twice about why the number was what it was.

Again, this is all moot because the over passed with flying colors. You're speaking from an educated bettor's perspective, though, when you point out the knowledge of the market. As we know, there aren't a lot of educated bettors in the public. The number was low and juiced for a reason, and it wasn't to make sure everyone cashed an easy over play at + money.

I'd rather respect the knowledge of the oddsmakers and the power of sharp money than figure they're giving people an easy path to victory.

[AribaAriba]

you're right it was a whacky game to be on the right side of this game LOL

[Lord and Master]

You're assuming the casual bettor knows information like this, or even bothers to look stuff like that up?

it doesn't matter if a casual bettor knows it or not. anyways people on this board are a pretty good representation of the casual bettor from what i've read.....you said it was already taken into account in the line so how could it possibly be relevant when picking a side? you get what im saying right? im not sure if you do

I guarantee anyone just glancing at this game knowing a little about the two teams/pitchers but not digging any deeper pounded this over today

bet % on over was only 58%, i'd hardly call that pounding

Again, this is all moot because the over passed with flying colors.

no its not moot. just because the over hit doesn't mean the under was a bad bet. are you really this results-oriented?

As we know, there aren't a lot of educated bettors in the public.

no, but we would disagree on what constitutes an educated bettor. the vast vast majority of what i've seen here would not fit that description.

The number was low and juiced for a reason, and it wasn't to make sure everyone cashed an easy over play at + money.

the reason was because thats where the books thought the line should be, i didn't see anything in particular in this game that would make pinnacle think there was going to be a heavy action bias one way or the other

[No coincidences]

it doesn't matter if a casual bettor knows it or not. anyways people on this board are a pretty good representation of the casual bettor from what i've read.....you said it was already taken into account in the line so how could it possibly be relevant when picking a side? you get what im saying right? im not sure if you do

Because setting it at 7.5 indicated oddsmakers were expecting a low-scoring game. Like I said, there's no other reason for it to be below 8 or 8.5 even. If I had to guess, I'd say they saw a 4-3 or 5-2 final score. But those trends and statistics are taken into consideration before every line is set, so none of it is relevant in your eyes when considering a side?

bet % on over was only 58%, i'd hardly call that pounding

Still the majority, but not as high as I figured. I thought it'd be in the 70% range. Guess I should have checked.

no its not moot. just because the over hit doesn't mean the under was a bad bet. are you really this results-oriented?

no, but we would disagree on what constitutes an educated bettor. the vast vast majority of what i've seen here would not fit that description.

the reason was because thats where the books thought the line should be, i didn't see anything in particular in this game that would make pinnacle think there was going to be a heavy action bias one way or the other

I'm not disagreeing with anything you say here. I feel like you're just arguing for the sake of arguing.

Who are you again? Seriously -- I'm getting a weird feeling of deja vu right now.

[topgame85]

I heart gambling forum geniuses, guys like LM act as if they know so much and do so well gambling that they must be millionaires but still choose to spend hours trolling public forums to try to berate or try to prove themselves more cunning than the next man. Are there no statistics forums on the web where you can all use your superior intelect to duel? Make some plays and win some money, the way or reason people select their plays should not matter to you and would not if you were busy scouting your own wagers. The reason I do not do write ups for my plays is just because of "know it alls" like you who think there is one path to making money LM. Some people know the games and not just math, math is your friend but not your savior. Odds, sample sizes, and percentages ARE open to interpretation because they are constantly changing based on what happens on the field any given day. What happens on the field any given day is what makes the long term results what they are and those who know how to find a spot are the only ones who will survive. What happened in 100 samples may be contradictory to what happens in 1000 contradictoy to 10,000 which may be contradictedn at 100,000. There is no begin and end just a continous line of data.

[No coincidences]

I heart gambling forum geniuses, they act as if they know so much and do so well gambling that they must be millionaires but still choose to spend hours trolling public forums to try to berate or prove themselves more cunning than the next man. Make some plays and win some money, the way or reason people select their plays should not matter to you and would not if you were busy scouting your own wagers. The reason I do not do write ups for my plays is just because of "know it alls" like you who think there is one path to making money LM. Some people know the games and not just math, math is your friend but not your savior. odds, sample sizes, and percentages ARE open to interpretation because because they are constantly changing based on what happens on the field any given day. Waht happens on the field any given day is what makes the long term results what they are and those who know how to find a spot are the only ones who will survive. What happened in 1000 samples may be contradictory to what happens in 10000 and in 10,000 may contradict 100,000. There is no begin and end just a continous line of data.

Are you talking to me? I'm not saying line movement is the only way to make money -- far from it. And it isn't anywhere near 100%. If you'd check my thread, you see I post plays quite often the night before without even knowing what has happened public-wise or even line movement-wise. I do think it's a helpful tool, without question, but with baseball especially, it is about trends, streaks, matchups and recent performance more than anything else.

I "know the game" and watch the game. I've made tens of thousands of dollars through fantasy sports. Please don't peg me as someone who only watches line movement. I absolutely follow it, but that's not the only factor I use when making a bet.

Anyway, congrats on hitting the over. If only they were all that easy.

[No coincidences]

My bad -- I think you were referring to Lord and Master with "lm" -- I thought it was for line movement.

Anyway, I'd like to know whose ghost this guy is.

[Lord and Master]

Because setting it at 7.5 indicated oddsmakers were expecting a low-scoring game. Like I said, there's no other reason for it to be below 8 or 8.5 even. If I had to guess, I'd say they saw a 4-3 or 5-2 final score. But those trends and statistics are taken into consideration before every line is set, so none of it is relevant in your eyes when considering a side?

i'll answer with a question...how could any trends/statistics that were used in making the line help you ascertain if one side or the other is profitable? i'll explain if you don't understand..

say the rangers are playing tigers and the line is rangers -140 and tigers +130...rangers SP is bad in day games, had a few good recent stars...tigers bats are super hot, their pitcher though struggles against this type of lineup...

if all of this info is used to get the true line of -135/+135, how can you possibly use that exact same info and get a true line outside of the -140/+130 range. see what im saying?

I'm not disagreeing with anything you say here. I feel like you're just arguing for the sake of arguing.

i'm arguing because i think your reasoning for picking a side was square, you seem to be more level headed than others here so i thought i could engage you in a discussion. how you get to a decision on a side is the most important part(btw i had the under around breakeven so at least you were on the right side)

[Lord and Master]

I heart gambling forum geniuses, guys like LM act as if they know so much and do so well gambling that they must be millionaires but still choose to spend hours trolling public forums to try to berate or try to prove themselves more cunning than the next man. Are there no statistics forums on the web where you can all use your superior intelect to duel? Make some plays and win some money, the way or reason people select their plays should not matter to you and would not if you were busy scouting your own wagers. The reason I do not do write ups for my plays is just because of "know it alls" like you who think there is one path to making money LM. Some people know the games and not just math, math is your friend but not your savior. Odds, sample sizes, and percentages ARE open to interpretation because they are constantly changing based on what happens on the field any given day. What happens on the field any given day is what makes the long term results what they are and those who know how to find a spot are the only ones who will survive. What happened in 100 samples may be contradictory to what happens in 1000 contradictoy to 10,000 which may be contradictedn at 100,000. There is no begin and end just a continous line of data.

trying to have an intelligent discussion here please step aside

[Lord and Master]

What happened in 100 samples may be contradictory to what happens in 1000 contradictoy to 10,000 which may be contradictedn at 100,000. There is no begin and end just a continous line of data.

that is going to depend on your sd but this is still nonsense regardless

[No coincidences]

i'll answer with a question...how could any trends/statistics that were used in making the line help you ascertain if one side or the other is profitable? i'll explain if you don't understand..

say the rangers are playing tigers and the line is rangers -140 and tigers +130...rangers SP is bad in day games, had a few good recent stars...tigers bats are super hot, their pitcher though struggles against this type of lineup...

if all of this info is used to get the true line of -135/+135, how can you possibly use that exact same info and get a true line outside of the -140/+130 range. see what im saying?

I absolutely see what you're saying, but in that line sometimes (not always, but more often than not) clues you in to who is the right play. In taking your example above, there is a reason why the Rangers would be -140 or the Tigers would be +130, and a lot of times, the casual bettor doesn't stop to think why the line is where it is in the first place. They just see extreme value with one number or the other, when in all actuality, oddsmakers are oftentimes tipping their hand and pointing you in the right direction with the number they've set.

i'm arguing because i think your reasoning for picking a side was square, you seem to be more level headed than others here so i thought i could engage you in a discussion. how you get to a decision on a side is the most important part(btw i had the under around breakeven so at least you were on the right side)

The square/sharp way to pick a side or total is subjective, as is most everything we're discussing here. In fact, it's borderline irrelevant. There are only winning bets and losing bets, regardless of how you come to your own personal conclusions in your wagering.

I appreciate the dialect, but to pretend there is a "right" or "wrong" answer here or that you or I are 100% right in our approaches and opinions is asinine.

[topgame85]

I love Lordmaster already. The common response of a mathman, they don't post plays because they are too good (or scared). And whenever they lose they explain away their loss with "well its just one match long term I will hit" and when they lose over 100 matches well they will be up over 1000 because math says so and so on it continues. They are too narrow sighted and dillusional to the fact a real living breathing world exists outside that textbook they spent their pimple faced, friendless, pathetic youth in. These are also the clowns who usually don't believe in faith or God either, atheist to the extreme I would wager LM? I think I have a distinct +EV advantage betting a mathman is a Atheist, no? Troll on my friend.

[topgame85]

I absolutely see what you're saying, but in that line sometimes (not always, but more often than not) clues you in to who is the right play. In taking your example above, there is a reason why the Rangers would be -140 or the Tigers would be +130, and a lot of times, the casual bettor doesn't stop to think why the line is where it is in the first place. They just see extreme value with one number or the other, when in all actuality, oddsmakers are oftentimes tipping their hand and pointing you in the right direction with the number they've set.

The square/sharp way to pick a side or total is subjective, as is most everything we're discussing here. In fact, it's borderline irrelevant. There are only winning bets and losing bets, regardless of how you come to your own personal conclusions in your wagering.

I appreciate the dialect, but to pretend there is a "right" or "wrong" answer here or that you or I are 100% right in our approaches and opinions is asinine.

Correct

[Lord and Master]

I absolutely see what you're saying, but in that line sometimes (not always, but more often than not) clues you in to who is the right play. In taking your example above, there is a reason why the Rangers would be -140 or the Tigers would be +130, and a lot of times, the casual bettor doesn't stop to think why the line is where it is in the first place. They just see extreme value with one number or the other

i'd agree with all of that

, when in all actuality, oddsmakers are oftentimes tipping their hand and pointing you in the right direction with the number they've set.

i'd say that this is not true in the sense of just looking only at a line or line movement and thinking you can pick a side, but combining what you've said with additional info that gives you an indication why the line is there(i realize you said this above) then you're right. i guess where i'd disagree with you is that the "additional info" doesn't include such anything like pitcher's day record or starter's home era

The square/sharp way to pick a side or total is subjective

any way that just picks a winner or loser without thought of the true line and doesn't assign an expectation value to a bet is a square way period. also, making bets based on statistically insignificant sample sizes or correlations that have no logical basis is also square(for example a pitchers record vs the mets the last 3 years)

There are only winning bets and losing bets, regardless of how you come to your own personal conclusions in your wagering.

i'd say there are only positive expectation and negative expectation bets

I appreciate the dialect, but to pretend there is a "right" or "wrong" answer here or that you or I are 100% right in our approaches and opinions is asinine.

just by the nature of sports betting its very easy to have the wrong approach because of the vig. if you were lucky enough to be betting baseball using matchbook then you really can't have a wrong approach

[Lord and Master]

[/B]

Correct

remedial classes are down the hall

[topgame85]

Good one, I may as well indulge your witty response with one of my own "you would know wouldn't you" The drastically overeducated are just as, if not more, obnoxious and pathetic than the completely uneducated. This guys a hamburger JJ he would not survive a minute in your neighborhood. His expectation to survive the streets of newark is -ev. This hamburger has a better shot at winning the mega millions than surviving ten minutes in JJ's hood.

[Lord and Master]

I love Lordmaster already. The common response of a mathman, they don't post plays because they are too good (or scared).

i don't post plays because i don't care to share hard work for free on a message board

They are too narrow sighted and dillusional to the fact a real living breathing world exists outside that textbook they spent their pimple faced, friendless, pathetic youth in.

wow you've got some pent up anger inside you. don't know where this came from

[Lord and Master]

His expectation to survive the streets of newark is -ev.

my expectation to survive the high rises of manhattan is +ev though

[No coincidences]

i don't post plays because i don't care to share hard work for free on a message board

Then why even visit this site?

[gshock1]

Then why even visit this site?

Because this is a ghost that got GG banned again.

[Lord and Master]

Then why even visit this site?

i meant in the sense of starting a pick thread and posting everything i play. i have no problem offering up something in the right thread

i visited this site hoping for some interesting discussion with intelligent sports bettors but that hasn't been what i've encountered so far

[No coincidences]

i meant in the sense of starting a pick thread and posting everything i play. i have no problem offering up something in the right thread

i visited this site hoping for some interesting discussion with intelligent sports bettors but that hasn't been what i've encountered so far

Well first, you have to stop acting like your shit doesn't stink.

I can tell you know what you're talking about, but you seem to have a lot of Goat Milk in you.

[Lord and Master]

Well first, you have to stop acting like your shit doesn't stink.

sorry its the company, i was just lectured about how i would never survive the streets of newark and that i probably don't believe in god when trying to discuss how to ascertain value from a line

I can tell you know what you're talking about, but you seem to have a lot of Goat Milk in you.

i've only read a post of his in the tennis forum but lets just say he seems about as clueless as they come

[face]

does chasing steam work out in the long haul?

[No coincidences]

sorry its the company, i was just lectured about how i would never survive the streets of newark and that i probably don't believe in god when trying to discuss how to ascertain value from a line



i've only read a post of his in the tennis forum but lets just say he seems about as clueless as they come

[No coincidences]

does chasing steam work out in the long haul?

Not a bad idea to keep an eye on it -- especially if you're on the other side -- but I wouldn't suggest blindly following it either.

[face]

more for warning you not to play, got it, thanks

[topgame85]

sorry its the company, i was just lectured about how i would never survive the streets of newark and that i probably don't believe in god when trying to discuss how to ascertain value from a line



i've only read a post of his in the tennis forum but lets just say he seems about as clueless as they come

exactly what I said, you are a hamburger. Stay in the think tank, the players talk is for us real gamblers who fight the good fight and can have nit-witted banter along the way. There are several posters here just as jaded and stiff as you are and I am sure they would love you to join their ranks. You come into the part of the forum intended for fun banter and selections you would like to share and have fellow posters play and treat it like we are discussing Cancer or something. You are one of those dipsticks who goes to a bar and complains drunk people are everywhere smoking cigs. Don't like it? Go home. You wish deep down you knew how to enjoy the better things in life and have a good time but because you can not you try to stop others from enjoying themselves. Not gonna work not with me at least, I enjoy miserable people like you. i have seen the inside of universities as well as the inside of jails, lived in neighborhoods people hope they never accidentally drive into at night and houses 90% of the country could not dream of. I have seen all angels and types of people and taken it all in stride, relaxed, and enjoy everyday. I can have a drink with a wise ass like you or the guy hanginging out at the corner store and have a good time all the same. You are better than noone and may know more about math than most but that won't make you happy I rather hit 55% and not be critical of everyone around than be able to hit 57% and have a superiority complex. Hell I rather hit 30% than ever be a judgemental ass. Enjoy your stay and play Wash/ARZ under tonight. If it happens to lose I look forward to your rant about how your a big shot winner and us dumbies are so inferior.

[gilly6864]

LM...start posting your math plays and let people see if you can win long term..