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DAY ACTION DAY 2: PITT/NYM Over 7.5 +100

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  • topgame85
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-30-08
    • 12325

    #1
    DAY ACTION DAY 2: PITT/NYM Over 7.5 +100
    Dropped yesterdays play with noone being able to generate any runs. 2-1 since return of daily total posts. this will most likely be leg 1 of a 2 play day. Just making sure there is not a pitcher change in the other game before I post it. Gl today and hope we can get back on track with this game. Have a feeling this will be a whacky game this afternoon. Few abnormalities in the numbers which I think can open this one up.
  • Redscot
    SBR MVP
    • 05-16-11
    • 2571

    #2
    Thanx Top

    Having Reyes back won't hurt either.
    Comment
    • donkdown
      Restricted User
      • 07-09-09
      • 4423

      #3
      TG u got a horrible price the over 7.5 is available at a lot of places +110 or at least +105..
      Comment
      • Redscot
        SBR MVP
        • 05-16-11
        • 2571

        #4
        Mets Thursday lineup vs. Pittsburgh: Reyes-SS, Turner-3B, Beltran-RF, Bay-LF, Pagan-CF, Paulino-C, Evans-1B, Tejada-2B, Pelfrey-RHP
        Comment
        • topgame85
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 03-30-08
          • 12325

          #5
          redscot like it, donk only funded at betjam currently so ate what they were serving, glad other guys can get better prices though
          Comment
          • donkdown
            Restricted User
            • 07-09-09
            • 4423

            #6
            Im going to ride with u!! Lets get it!!
            Comment
            • pokerpro44
              SBR MVP
              • 08-20-07
              • 3138

              #7
              thanks for the play.gl.
              Comment
              • No coincidences
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 01-18-10
                • 76300

                #8
                +110 at Pinny and +113 at Matchy.

                I don't know about this. Books leaning pretty heavy on the under so far. I'd definitely take under FF.
                Comment
                • lakerboy
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 04-02-09
                  • 94463

                  #9
                  I'm on under 7.5
                  Comment
                  • No coincidences
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 01-18-10
                    • 76300

                    #10
                    Originally posted by lakerboy
                    I'm on under 7.5
                    Hey LB -- look at what Pinny and Matchy are offering the Giants at right now vs. other books, and look at the line movement after the pitching change was announced.
                    Comment
                    • cankid
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 08-22-08
                      • 7268

                      #11
                      im on the under, not sure i like it that much but the pitchers have both shown better form in recent starts
                      Comment
                      • Redscot
                        SBR MVP
                        • 05-16-11
                        • 2571

                        #12
                        Just dropped to 7 on my local and the Mets jumped to -135 for the side
                        Comment
                        • topgame85
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 03-30-08
                          • 12325

                          #13
                          Even split it seems as far as the players are concerned, there are def. some things that look like an under on the face but the more in depth you go there are some odd numbers which brought me to believe the Over is a good play especially at + money. Just hope I am not overthinking myself here but am confident in the data that has helped me in the past guide this to a cashed ticket. Enjoy the day baseball boys.
                          Comment
                          • firedawg
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 10-08-08
                            • 39230

                            #14
                            goodluck top
                            Comment
                            • Crayzee
                              SBR MVP
                              • 10-27-06
                              • 4942

                              #15
                              rather just bet on pittsburgh
                              Comment
                              • BiffTFinancial
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 01-29-09
                                • 22670

                                #16
                                i also like the over and am a little discouraged by the line movement. then again, i felt the same way yesterday when i had Phils/Nats under 7.5 and it went all the way to 8.5, and that worked out fine. BOL today.
                                Comment
                                • donkdown
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 07-09-09
                                  • 4423

                                  #17
                                  under just got steamed its 7o -20 now
                                  Comment
                                  • vyomguy
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 12-08-09
                                    • 5794

                                    #18
                                    all you fukkers betting under realize that the wind is blowing out of right field right?

                                    if anything, I like the over here...but the line movement is scaring me.
                                    Comment
                                    • pavyracer
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 04-12-07
                                      • 82667

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by vyomguy
                                      all you fukkers betting under realize that the wind is blowing out of right field right?

                                      if anything, I like the over here...but the line movement is scaring me.
                                      I think the wind is blowing in from the north west so any fly balls hit by right hand batters will be held in and most fly balls hit by left handed batters will be foul balls to right field.

                                      So the wind is definitely not helping the over. In fact it is hurting it.
                                      Comment
                                      • topgame85
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 03-30-08
                                        • 12325

                                        #20
                                        Wind is being overestimated here and part of the reason the number is what it is. Don't think these teams will be nailing down the runs hitting out of the park anyways although I would not mind if they did.
                                        Comment
                                        • pavyracer
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 04-12-07
                                          • 82667

                                          #21
                                          When a pitcher knows the wind is blowing in he throws more off speed strikes knowing that if contact is made the ball will stay in the park allowing him to be more agressive in attacking the strike zone.
                                          Comment
                                          • BiffTFinancial
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 01-29-09
                                            • 22670

                                            #22
                                            total just jumped across the board. my over 7.5 +105 looking better.
                                            Comment
                                            • topgame85
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 03-30-08
                                              • 12325

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by pavyracer
                                              When a pitcher knows the wind is blowing in he throws more off speed strikes knowing that if contact is made the ball will stay in the park allowing him to be more agressive in attacking the strike zone.
                                              Correct but is this not factored in as part of the line being posted? Weather played the largest roll in an o/u of 13 in wrigley the other day. the question is given the data and circumstances will the pitchers or hitters be more effective. From what I see I believe the runs will come.
                                              Comment
                                              • iceminers26
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 10-13-08
                                                • 15600

                                                #24
                                                Pauly is known to give up runs earlier, wouldn't mind if the Mets put up a 4 spot in the 1st, on Mets RL here, just too much value @ +175 to pass up. GL with the over.
                                                Comment
                                                • gilbert91016
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 04-29-09
                                                  • 1479

                                                  #25
                                                  Let's get this Top. Bol
                                                  Comment
                                                  • pavyracer
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 04-12-07
                                                    • 82667

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by topgame85
                                                    Correct but is this not factored in as part of the line being posted? Weather played the largest roll in an o/u of 13 in wrigley the other day. the question is given the data and circumstances will the pitchers or hitters be more effective. From what I see I believe the runs will come.
                                                    I think the line was set at 7.5 because this is the last game of the series and they usually have back up catchers and position players play. I don't think the line was set last night for the wind. The wind is actually what moved the line this morning.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • topgame85
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 03-30-08
                                                      • 12325

                                                      #27
                                                      Well you are certainly correct that is a piece of the puzzle but I suppose we will see how this one plays out in about 30 minutes here. GL on your plays today pavy.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • jjgold
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 07-20-05
                                                        • 388208

                                                        #28
                                                        Windy

                                                        You better know the wind direction today
                                                        Comment
                                                        • firedawg
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 10-08-08
                                                          • 39230

                                                          #29
                                                          fukk it im in toper gl
                                                          Comment
                                                          • topgame85
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 03-30-08
                                                            • 12325

                                                            #30
                                                            Lets get it FD. Sounds like JJ likes the Under, can't be a bad thing for us.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • firedawg
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 10-08-08
                                                              • 39230

                                                              #31
                                                              true
                                                              Originally posted by topgame85
                                                              Lets get it FD. Sounds like JJ likes the Under, can't be a bad thing for us.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • pavyracer
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 04-12-07
                                                                • 82667

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by topgame85
                                                                Lets get it FD. Sounds like JJ likes the Under, can't be a bad thing for us.
                                                                Actually it sounds like JJ doesn't even know what direction the wind blows and he lives closer to the ballpark than all of us.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • jjgold
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 07-20-05
                                                                  • 388208

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Paver it is swirling although not there

                                                                  Paver I have no desire to know

                                                                  My main concern with wind is MPH and only because of my rug

                                                                  Strong gusts could knock it off and cause a problem for me (right to left seems more of a threat to me)

                                                                  Paver sometimes you do not get it
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • rfr3sh
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 11-07-09
                                                                    • 10229

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                                    +110 at Pinny and +113 at Matchy. I don't know about this. Books leaning pretty heavy on the under so far. I'd definitely take under FF.
                                                                    has dropped a lot since then

                                                                    I am laying off this game
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • topgame85
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 03-30-08
                                                                      • 12325

                                                                      #35
                                                                      He is too busy throwing bubble gum to the kids outside his window. He noticed the wind was carrying the gum out into the street because all the big timers in cadillacs driving by had to swerve to miss the kids as they scrambled for the joe blow.
                                                                      Comment
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