Buy or Sale points

**Illusion** · 03-14-06, 02:58 PM

I just use Pinnacle's drop down menu. I usually sell points to get a better line. Note, I only sell points when I feel real strong about a game.

**pags11** · 03-14-06, 05:58 PM

I sell points sometimes with the drop down menu...

**El Guapo** · 03-15-06, 10:37 AM

Thank you for the answer s. This is probaly most for more experience gamblers. Do you get more for sale points at some sights than other sights?

Paul

**Razz** · 03-15-06, 10:43 AM

Just remember that the lower the total (or expected score) the more valuable the points. In a game like West Virginia/Southern Illinois this weekend, selling points wouldn't be a great idea, but in a game like UCONN/Albany, it would make more sense.

**pags11** · 03-15-06, 05:28 PM

pinny is the only site I play with where I can sell points...

**Ganchrow** · 03-16-06, 04:49 AM

Originally posted by Razz

Just remember that the lower the total (or expected score) the more valuable the points.

There's no question that this is indeed a factor. Its theoretical justification is that due to the greater sparsity of likely outcomes for "low" totals as opposed to "high", there's also a greater liikelihood of realizing any given MOV under a "low" total scneario. And indeed, this certainly has a large imapct in baseball. In basketball, however, it gets a little more complicated.

If you look at NCAA Basketball spreads over the past 8 or 9 years and partition the data set into a "high" total subset and a "low" total subset what you find is that while for most spreads push probabilities when you move from the "high" total subset to the "low" do increase (as predicted by theory), there are a few spread clusters (most notable of which may be the 3-4-5 spread cluster) where figure probabilities actually decrease. Assuming that this isn't a data anomaly (and the texture of the probability differences surrounding the clusters suggest that indeed it isn't), this suggests that there exists some other factor, which for certain spread groups and as a function of expected total score, exerts an impact on push probabilities opposite to that of sparsity. (And of course it stands to reason that for other spread groups the factor's effect is in the same direction as that of sparsity.)

The macro explanation for this theoretical factor is certainly up for debate. I do have my own hypothesis about it but I'd be interested in seeing if anyone else has any thoughts before I poison the well with my own bombastic flavor of expression.

**imgv94** · 03-16-06, 05:59 AM

When I have infatuation for a game the 1st thing I envision is Pinnacle and
selling points. Getting +115 or so on a game where you assume the line is
inaccurate, is without question profitable and lucrative for a professional
and skillful handicapper.

With that being said the only time I would recommend selling points
is if you are infatuated with a particular game or the spread is sizable
i.e -10 or more. Ganchrow great work my friend! Who is going to
be the win the NCAA tourney this year?

**El Guapo** · 03-16-06, 09:56 AM

This is all good to read for a new comer like me. Thank you.

Paul

**ucdrummer00** · 03-19-06, 01:09 AM

Here are a few links you might want to look at, I'm pretty new to this sports stuff, but basically it looks like once you have a good idea of the push frequency for each number (you'd do well to automate this by writing a program to analyze past score data or getting someone to do it for you), you should be able to figure out any change in EV buying on or off of a number would create.

EDIT - No links

EDIT - No links

EDIT - No links

EDIT - No links

Hope this helps, I'm finding that there are many interesting things to this sports betting stuff, handicapping (assuming it can be done), money management, and line shopping among others.

Hope this helps!

Bryan

**pags11** · 03-19-06, 02:40 AM

great thread here guys...

**ucdrummer00** · 03-19-06, 03:52 AM

Oppps, guess we can't post links here, the threads I referenced are from Fezzik's Place and SSB, anyone interested, just PM me or go searching at those places.

**onlooker** · 03-19-06, 03:58 AM

Originally posted by ucdrummer00

Oppps, guess we can't post links here, the threads I referenced are from Fezzik's Place and SSB, anyone interested, just PM me or go searching at those places.

They are in the Promotions and Links forum. I copied the thread up to that post there. So they can be checked out from there.

**bostonceltics13** · 03-20-06, 03:28 PM

When it comes to buying and selling points, I like to consider the game and sport. Football is a great example. A spread of 3 1/2 in a close game might be a situation when you'd purchase 1/2 point or a full point. This gets you a tie or win on a game decided by a field goal. Basketball is typically a different story. That depends on the confidence you have in the bet. Selling points can increase the value of your bet but it could also lose you that bet. Be careful and cautious while you learn the ins and outs of buying and selling points. Good luck

**El Guapo** · 03-21-06, 10:44 AM

It is good to read storys form more experenced bettors. Thank you all for the help and kee p your advise comeing.

Paul