Why cap for two hours?

[Stacocakes]

Just wondering why you guys cap games for 2 hours or more.What is the point?It is basically like saying I am going to study the probability that a coin that is being flipped will land on heads or tails. There is no point
Many factors that we don't know about as the public could be happening and they would drastically affect the outcomes of the events.Things like players getting paid off, personal problems with a particular player, injuries that we don't know about. Anything could be happening.
Why waste two hours of your day looking at the numbers when you can be out and having fun.Doing something productive
A prime example of why it is useless to cap games for hours is the game I bet on last night.Toronto/Tampa Bay over 8. If you look at the numbers and see that the Jays hadn't allowed over 3 runs in a whole wackload of games and the pitching matchup was half decent, the numbers would all point to the game being under the 8 or 8.5.Of course the game went over so basically the capping of that game would be wrong.
Just my two cents. I tell everyone I know that the best way to make money on sports is to bet them in-running.This way you can watch the game and get a feel for it. Think of how many times you have bet on a game and then it starts and a couple of mins in you are pissed off because your team shit the bed and its over.
Anyways,screw the capping, bet in-game and go out and enjoy your day.That way instead of wasting 10-12 hours a day gambling you can only spend 6 hours max

[mofome]

you could have asked this question with nothing more than the title, but you went on and on. idk, some people feel more secure with their stance if they have explored things more thoroughly; others do not. I spend over an hour writing up a single game, but i could cap it much more quickly if i wasn't writing it and making it viewer friendly.

[Stacocakes]

Figured I would go on about it a bit in the post so I have something to back up my point instead of just saying that its useless and have everyone get on me for it.

[Nicky Santoro]

this guy here i could tell is one knowledgeable guy.. i keep saying the same thing to every poster/gambler out there, but they never seem to listen..

capping means squat. he said it right by saying. it's like capping a coin flip.. you can't. i know guys that go to casino, bet roulette and say to me, you gotta bet red, it's hot, or bet black, it's due.. these are the biggest squares. they are all down their life savings. gamblers are sick people..


you want to make money gambling..forget capping pitchers and crap. who cares if a pitcher is 7-0 on grass when pitching under the lights against west teams who are below .500.. all this means crap.. it's totally irrelevant.. it's the f-ckin past. means shit.. plus, it's only 7 games, which is such a small sample. if it was 37000 games, that's different.


the only way anyone has a chance at winning in gambling is bet an off number.. that's right, if the celtics are -6.5, and some book has it -5.5, take the celts. if the celts are -6.5 and some book has it -7.5, take the +7.5..

if the cubs are -145/+135 and some book has it at -158/+148, take the dog.. keep doing this, get the best #, don't have any opinion, and i guarantee you, you will win at the end.


no such thing as a good capper. that is why 99.6% of all gamblers lose. the more you know, the less successful you are. these lines are so accurate.


always always always always bet the best line out there.

[pico]

this guy here i could tell is one knowledgeable guy.. i keep saying the same thing to every poster/gambler out there, but they never seem to listen..

capping means squat. he said it right by saying. it's like capping a coin flip.. you can't. i know guys that go to casino, bet roulette and say to me, you gotta bet red, it's hot, or bet black, it's due.. these are the biggest squares. they are all down their life savings. gamblers are sick people..


you want to make money gambling..forget capping pitchers and crap. who cares if a pitcher is 7-0 on grass when pitching under the lights against west teams who are below .500.. all this means crap.. it's totally irrelevant.. it's the f-ckin past. means shit.. plus, it's only 7 games, which is such a small sample. if it was 37000 games, that's different.


the only way anyone has a chance at winning in gambling is bet an off number.. that's right, if the celtics are -6.5, and some book has it -5.5, take the celts. if the celts are -6.5 and some book has it -7.5, take the +7.5..

if the cubs are -145/+135 and some book has it at -158/+148, take the dog.. keep doing this, get the best #, don't have any opinion, and i guarantee you, you will win at the end.


no such thing as a good capper. that is why 99.6% of all gamblers lose. the more you know, the less successful you are. these lines are so accurate.


always always always always bet the best line out there.

[mofome]

Figured I would go on about it a bit in the post so I have something to back up my point instead of just saying that its useless and have everyone get on me for it.

People who get mad about posts

[mofome]

this guy here i could tell is one knowledgeable guy.. i keep saying the same thing to every poster/gambler out there, but they never seem to listen..

capping means squat. he said it right by saying. it's like capping a coin flip.. you can't. i know guys that go to casino, bet roulette and say to me, you gotta bet red, it's hot, or bet black, it's due.. these are the biggest squares. they are all down their life savings. gamblers are sick people..


you want to make money gambling..forget capping pitchers and crap. who cares if a pitcher is 7-0 on grass when pitching under the lights against west teams who are below .500.. all this means crap.. it's totally irrelevant.. it's the f-ckin past. means shit.. plus, it's only 7 games, which is such a small sample. if it was 37000 games, that's different.


the only way anyone has a chance at winning in gambling is bet an off number.. that's right, if the celtics are -6.5, and some book has it -5.5, take the celts. if the celts are -6.5 and some book has it -7.5, take the +7.5..

if the cubs are -145/+135 and some book has it at -158/+148, take the dog.. keep doing this, get the best #, don't have any opinion, and i guarantee you, you will win at the end.


no such thing as a good capper. that is why 99.6% of all gamblers lose. the more you know, the less successful you are. these lines are so accurate.


always always always always bet the best line out there.

Blindly take the best line and do it 100% of the time if there is a large enough difference from other shops?

[Stacocakes]

Glad to see that some people agree at least

[Nicky Santoro]

when i was a young lad and i first started gambling, i was like everyone else. i was picking my own games. i had my own opinion. and at first, i started winning like crazy. i was betting 20-70 small dollars a game.. my first 6 months, i was up 2800, and i thought this was going to be the easiest money i will ever make. i might as well quit my job.. i am going to be professional gambler by picking my own games because i am that good.

then i started losing, and losing and losing, and i lost it all back, PLUS my last 18,000 i had in the bank that i saved up from age 15-18 living at home. i was paying off my bookie for 2 yrs in installments, plus, i had to get another job to pay off my debts. the losing never stopped. i was no longer invincible.

then i decided to no longer cap games and just play bad lines. well, i am not saying i am making tons of money now, because i am not.. but i am definitely still in the game.. it's a grind. it's so tough to make money gambling, you have no idea. but had i continued to cap games and play into any lines and not shop around, i'd be on the street today eating in soup kitchens. shopping around for best lines and betting off lines has kept me in the game.

IF YOU DON'T SHOP AND BET ONLY OFF LINES, YOU WILL LOSE IT ALL, TRUST ME ON THIS ONE. IT WILL EVENTUALLY CATCH UP TO YOU.

[pico]

when i was a young lad and i first started gambling, i was like everyone else. i was picking my own games. i had my own opinion. and at first, i started winning like crazy. i was betting 20-70 small dollars a game.. my first 6 months, i was up 2800, and i thought this was going to be the easiest money i will ever make. i might as well quit my job.. i am going to be professional gambler by picking my own games because i am that good.

then i started losing, and losing and losing, and i lost it all back, PLUS my last 18,000 i had in the bank that i saved up from age 15-18 living at home. i was paying off my bookie for 2 yrs in installments, plus, i had to get another job to pay off my debts. the losing never stopped. i was no longer invincible.

then i decided to no longer cap games and just play bad lines. well, i am not saying i am making tons of money now, because i am not.. but i am definitely still in the game.. it's a grind. it's so tough to make money gambling, you have no idea. but had i continued to cap games and play into any lines and not shop around, i'd be on the street today eating in soup kitchens. shopping around for best lines and betting off lines has kept me in the game.

IF YOU DON'T SHOP AND BET ONLY OFF LINES, YOU WILL LOSE IT ALL, TRUST ME ON THIS ONE. IT WILL EVENTUALLY CATCH UP TO YOU.

however, some people here are just betting for fun.

[MrX]

Anyone spending hours capping a game needs to do some serious work on his efficiency.

[Reload]

I remember posting about this a few times before. It's been clear that I've had the same degree of success with plays that I took 3 days reviewing/capping than plays I spent 3 minutes thinking about. I do like writing up plays and will always try to think of the most possible to justify a play. But it's no secret that plays made more impulsively can have the same success. Halftime lines are a good example - not much time to think about it, but they can be some of the most profitable plays out there.

[Nicky Santoro]

to prove this theory of capping games is useless. we can do this..


someone should post his 300 strongest plays in baseball this summer for us to see. we will track his plays..

after the 300 games, he will then flip a coin for the next 300 games. heads = dog... tails = fav...


and i will bet anyone here any amount of money that both will be sooooooooo close.. or maybe even the coin might win more games.. and if the coin doesn't win, it will be very very close.

[fiveteamer]

How can it POSSIBLY take you 2 hours to come up with a side you like?

[Arnold]

Anyone spending hours capping a game needs to do some serious work on his efficiency.

I agree. Capping for hours is impossible in the long run. It will wear you out and your judging abilities. I don't want to spend more than half an hour per day capping. It's just not worth it. It's like solving crazy long math problems for school homework - and the same shit every day. It is better to spend the time researching for more efficient methods, rather than wasting your time capping for hours and getting no where in the end.

[jjgold]

Stacker and Nicky gets posts of the year here. I spend about 20 seconds per game and get the same results as most here that study 2 hrs.

[Stacocakes]

[frostno98]

Looking at trends and whats more likely to happen will greatly improve that coin flip percentage. Takes about few minutes that's all.

[Stacocakes]

Just trying to save everyone a couple of hours each day that can be more productively used snorting cocaine, drinking or chasing young women. Whatever you like

[bettilimbroke999]

On NFL it's so you can put extra cash in your pocket, on NBA and MLB it's so you can feel smart when your team shoots lights out or hits 7 homers and feel like an idiot when Allen/Pierce score 4 pts combined and you lose.

[Nicky Santoro]

jj, you got to make stacker the leading candidate as we speak for poster of the month for the month of may after this great thread. he is the favorite as we speak. he's got a long way to go though.. he has 24 more days to prove himself. this thing is not won by 1 post.. he has to be consistent. i will be watching very closely this guy to make sure he keeps up the good work.


oh wait a second, he's canadian.. forget it, he's been officially disqualified.. the rules and regulations state that in order to be eligible for poster of the month, you can be from anywhere, except canada. i hate canadians, they brought us celine dion..


ok, fine, as long as stacker is not from montreal or the province of quebec, he's eligible. stacker, please tell me you are not from montreal?

[Stacocakes]

Nah not from Montreal so you don't have to worry
I rest in the west,see some nice breasts in the west,smoke some nice sess in the West

[Stacocakes]

By the way on a side note,I would still hit Celine Dion eventhough she is annoying and all

[Cannon]

Waste of time.

[Mattn3236]

Read Espn on a consistent basis....that's as close to capping as I get. No point

[twitchy]

okay guys if capping doesnt help you win then u are capping wrong... let me guess you are all using STATS and STATS only... STATS TRENDS WEATHER that bs.. yeah there is ohhh so much more... lol


First of all they make the LINE OFF STATS so if u go by stats / trends all that bs u will be about 50 - 50... but if u find some other info on the game and get some insides and actually Learn to FULLY CAP A GAME... trust me u will be more succesfull then just flipping a coin in the LONG RUN.... <3

[shady610]

its more about justifying your pick more than picking a winner.

[chipski]

if you wager money without any thourough research then that's like getting married without being together first . not asking questions . not trying to find out (through visual evidence ) if what you are about to do is a good move .
buying a house without looking inside and underneath the house for buried bodies . lmao

is like eating something strange , ( like the royals ) before you look at it to make sure there are no worms or razor blades in it .
blind faith ? interesting . i know what you guys mean but is much better to study overall . is work basically .

many times you will save yourself an L if you do some research . sure the research will not pay off many times , but in retrospect it can in fact pay off even if you lose that much researched game because you use the info on the next game involving the same team or teams and it pays off . is deep yes .

[Nicky Santoro]

chippy, that's what the lines are there for.. you have it wrong, it's not like marrying a woman you don't know.. a line makes a game 50-50.. it's like saying, i love heads this flip because heads has been on a good run..


i agree that it helps to know Webb is pitching at home agains SF and Zito and that webb is probably going to win, but it doesn't help in betting him because even if webb wins this game 77% of the time, you are laying probably -280, which now makes this game have no longer an advantage for you..


it doesn't matter what you know, because that's what the line is there for.. the line makes it 50-50, no matter who is playing who, or where they're playing, or how hot a team is.. it's 50-50 because the line will make it 50-50.. people don't seem to understand this.
people actually think they know way more than the oddsmakers. the oddsmakers don't just put up a line because they are bored. there is so much research put into this, you have no idea.

here's a perfect example. we all know that richkas is an alcoholic..now a safe bet would be that he will drink at least 1 beer tomorrow, right? now of course you would bet 1,000 on it that he will drink at least 1 beer tomorrow.. because 99% chance he will drink.. but if you had to lay -10000 on it, it's no longer a good bet.. he could get sick, he could get hit by a car.. he might die.. the line makes every game 50-50, no matter how much you know.


just be safe and bet every bad line, and you will be ok.. this is the safest way..

[chipski]

lol , you a trip . well i'm not sure we can ever say there is any such thing as a fav in baseball . is complicated . because webb is pitching is only a good half of the factor involved in who will win that said game . you are right is not worth -200 plus because a great starter is starting . not sure that the line means anything in mlb because is pretty even result as a whole .
you can feel safe betting 7 of the dogs out of the 15 games every night with a full board and come out ahead good most of the time . the dogs that happen to win , or the favs that happen to win in the 8/7 or 7/8 final count ? we could not go back and look at the lines after we see which 7 dogs won and say the lines meant anything neccessarily .
sure , you can find some to meet your theory but you will find many that will not meet your strategy thinking , will break even right .

what is a bad line ? example ?
you would have to tell me before the game started though . we always look afterwards and remember it backing our theory but we forget the ones where our thinking did not back the final result .
magic -4.5 is bad line right ?

[jjgold]

Most people cape games because of an ego that they outsmarted the line but in reality luck made them win the bet.

This guy Nicky from LA is sharp

[diogee]

JJ...Nicky is losing his ass bad. Not sure what you are talking about.

I think we cap games so we don't get our asses handed to us every day...that is the exact thing that happens when just "picking games" instead of capping games. I know this from personal experience.

[pico]

i agree with jj. nicky is sharp. he is different than all the "smart" people on this forum. he knows what he's talking about.

[TheLock]

I know where Nicky is coming from but to say capping is absolutely useless is a bit of a stretch.


But anyone who spends 2 hours capping is maybe going overboard.

[chipski]

so tell me a bad line before the game starts . are you people for real ? picoman comes in just in time , good feedback , you are brillant pico . joke