Why cap for two hours?

[chipski]

i agree with jj. nicky is sharp. he is different than all the "smart" people on this forum. he knows what he's talking about.

which ghost is this ? you know nicky ? get the fucl outta here .

[pico]

nicky is solid. he knows his stuff.

[Nicky Santoro]

chippy, what's with that attitude man??? chippy, there's not one person here that can look at a line and say that line is off.. people think that all the time, including myself when the lakers opens up at -8.5 and we all say, omg, that line is way low, but in reality, it's not.. how many times have you thought a fav was too low at -8.5, then it closes at -7.. if it was way off and too low, why did it close at -7 instead of -10?

chippy, no one knows what an off line is, but when you bet a game and it wins big, i bet you say, man, i should have bet big, that line was too low.. well guess what chippy, it wasnt low, you just happened to call the right side of the coin landing. how many times you thought a game was too low, you bet big on it, and you lose 126-84.. were you off on your opinion? no, but that line was the good line.


jj, you are a genius. you know exactly.. people cap because it makes them feel smart when they pick a game and they win. they feel like they've outsmarted the linesmakers, when in reality, they did not outsmart anyone. they just called the right side of the coin on that game. people don't want to just pick on bad #'s because it's boring and not challenging. they like to pick their own games to make them feel good.. they don't want to be robots.. but in reality, if you are a robot and let the books pick your games by them moving #'s too far and you take the other side, and you shop around at reduced juice places, your chances of winning is much much better than just picking your own games at the right price.

[donjuan]

If point spreads were always truly 50-50 (efficient) why would they ever move except in the case of an injury?

[Nicky Santoro]

If point spreads were always truly 50-50 (efficient) why would they ever move except in the case of an injury?

to balance their action so they are not heavy on one side. books dont want 29 dimes on DET and 2 dimes on ORL.. they want 15 dimes on each so they make 1500 on that game no matter what. that's how books make their money

[chipski]

no attitude here . not sure what your bottom line is to what you are trying to convey . you are talking about winning is a coin flip and 50/50 , that goes without saying . that is saying something but saying nothing at the same time if that is your conclusion .
if you are talking about basketball with pt spreads then we would have to classify that in a category by itself . nfl is in a category by itself , baseball , hockey , different categories altogether .

how do you wager a game ? your thought process ? you talking about coin flips and bad and good lines is not showing me anything .
pick a game and talk about how it fits into your way of thinking PERTAINING TO your POSTS in this thread .

BEFORE THE GAME STARTS <<<<<<

[Nicky Santoro]

nba, nfl is 50-50 against the spread. if a team is -160, you will win 60% of the time.. if a line -300, you will win about 75% of time (approx), but the m.l. is figured into the line. of course you will win 75% of the time on a big fav, but when you do lose that 25% of the time, you will lay 3 to 1.. so all bets, whether spreads or moneylines, in reality, are like 50-50 because you have no advantage.


i dont want to talk about this anymore chippy, sorry man, i am bored now. i want to watch american idol..take care man.

[chipski]

I feel ya , the lines on games are the same year after year . never changes too much . and your #s are pretty accurate . i guess all that matters is being right on our wager , if we are right it's all good , if not its shi# . later

[chandler1981]

The line doesn't always make it a 50/50 scenerio.

There are situations where the line is off due to the public's "anticipated" reaction. I am not talking about a better line at one book, but a bad line in general. If you don't follow teams very closely, you should do a little research.

Anybody who "just guesses or flips a coin" is NEVER going to win longterm. But, somebody with some knowledge of sports and a little time to review articles and stats etc, will win IF THEY USE SMART MONEY MANAGEMENT.

Take this post for what it is worth.

Some of you really dont understand what sports betting is about.

It isnt about betting everyday. It is not about getting rich quick. It is about making money over the long haul, and using sound, strict money mgmt skills.

Keep flippin coins and you will be flippin burgers if you aren't already.

[Nicky Santoro]

chandy,

you have no clue what you are talking about. I'll tell you what, i will send money to sbr john to hold, you do that too. i will take every game on the board that you want me to take and i will take +103 on every one of those games.. so if you love a game, i have the opposite at +103 and we will see who will win at the end. so whatever you like, i have opposite at +103.. it's that simple..

we will go by the greek's closing line #..

[jjgold]

Does anyone realize turnovers whatever sport it is decides approx 80% of pointspread winners/losers? Now how to you cape turnovers?? Well you don't.

[donjuan]

to balance their action so they are not heavy on one side. books dont want 29 dimes on DET and 2 dimes on ORL.. they want 15 dimes on each so they make 1500 on that game no matter what. that's how books make their money

This is basically wrong and has been discussed before. Many books take positions on games, but much like the advantage bettor, they need to manage their risk. Managing risk does not mean balancing the action 50/50, but it does mean not maximizing their expected value as expected growth is more important. Also, if lines move due to public action as you say, then the spread is no longer 50/50 after the line move.

[donjuan]

Now how to you cape turnovers?? Well you don't.

It depends on the sport, but it's part of the probability distribution.