Barack Obama 2012 Election odds @ 5dimes

[Fang-Banger]

Currently:

Politics Other Sports * Money Line * *
2012 US Presidential Election
Obama must be President on November 6, 2012 for action
Tue 11/6 * 101*Barack Obama wins 2012 election -145* * ** **
6:00AM * 102*Field wins 2012 election * +125* *


Thoughts? ** **

[Salamander]

Unlikely the odds will change too much for the rest of this year unless Obama is involved in some malicious scandal save your money and wait til the end of the year.

[secretstash]

wait to see who is republican nom.. if its palin.. then obama is a lock.. if its someone else race will be tighter. imo

-stash

[stealthyburrito]

take the field for a unit. there is a really good chance he will get ousted.

if palin ends up being the candidate, then buy back your bet.

[obamaismyuncle]

take the field for a unit. there is a really good chance he will get ousted.

if palin ends up being the candidate, then buy back your bet.

this

[bostonboy]

why would anyone tie up their money for 20 months on a -145 bet? you can find better value on a -110 bet today

[brooks85]

sadly id say Obama is the winner. I dont have any faith in the collective IQ of this country. They are tricked too easily.


Uneducated black people will vote for him again just because they are told he is "black." (rob parker)

All the young people will vote for him again because they think they are causing "change." (the state of colorado)

democrats will vote for Obama just because whoever the Republican nominee is he/she will be compared to Bush. (Pavy and Emily)

[stealthyburrito]

this

sorry to say but your uncle is probably gone

every major republican candidate, sans palin (and even she is not that markedly far behind obama), holds an sizable advantage in surveys over obama at this time. usually at this point the incumbent should be enjoying an advantage over any potential opponent, this is a very rare phenomenon in the election cycle.

the repubs are going to hammer away at his idealized programs that can never came to fruition, his inability to conduct "politics" in dc, and his terrible, terrible disconnect with the common american.

[jw]

every major republican candidate, sans palin (and even she is not that markedly far behind obama), holds an sizable advantage in surveys over obama at this time.

Do you have a link to this - everything i've seen is the exact opposite. Obama is leading over every single possible Republican candidate last I saw in the polls.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/01/ppp-poll-obama-improves-lead-on-2012-gop-contenders.php

are you just making stuff up as you go along as it suits your argument ?

[BIGDAY]

take the field for a unit. there is a really good chance he will get ousted.

if palin ends up being the candidate, then buy back your bet.

I'm on it!

[cant call it]

[stealthyburrito]

i get an email newsletter subscription from a political analyst at my university.

not sure how to post up a link but i will try to dig it up.

i think you can sign up for it for free. Its called "Sabato's Crystal Ball". if you become a subscriber i believe you can view past pages, or simply email them and ask for prior issues.

[jw]

i get an email newsletter subscription from a political analyst at my university.

not sure how to post up a link but i will try to dig it up.

i think you can sign up for it for free. Its called "Sabato's Crystal Ball". if you become a subscriber i believe you can view past pages, or simply email them and ask for prior issues.

Obama has led all political "hypothetical 2012 matchups" since being elected - apart from the one done right around the mid-terms ... since them he has again pulled out a lead on all Republican candidates.

I have seen nothing from any reputable polling company that shares your view that Every major Rep candidate holds a sizable lead"

[DrStale]

sadly id say Obama is the winner. I dont have any faith in the collective IQ of this country. They are tricked too easily.


Uneducated black people will vote for him again just because they are told he is "black." (rob parker)

All the young people will vote for him again because they think they are causing "change." (the state of colorado)

democrats will vote for Obama just because whoever the Republican nominee is he/she will be compared to Bush. (Pavy and Emily)

Yeah, cuz the stupid people always vote for Democrats. Wonder who this guy voted for?

[pavyracer]

The probability of Obama losing the election is very slim after the great job he did so far. Only way to lose is if the unemployment rate hits 20% and the Dow dips to 6,000. People will not vote for the GOP puppet after what Obama has on his resume now.

[Fang-Banger]

If it's Palin than Obama -145 is a stone cold lock. No way Palin gets elected...I think she's too radical in the public's eye to win

[pavyracer]

If it's Palin than Obama -145 is a stone cold lock. No way Palin gets elected...I think she's too radical in the public's eye to win

She is also a woman and many GOP voters (especially those above 60) will rather stay home than vote for her.

[agharah1]

Its going to be 2004 all over again: all the sound and all the fury...and the incumbent will win by an even larger margin than he did the first time. All the activists are going to be too busy activating that they won't even notice the vast majority of moderates are largely satisfied with Obama's performance, just like they were with Bush in 2004.

[Carseller4]

A few states are trying to pass laws making Presidential candidates prove they are natural born citizens. If that happens Obummer is in trouble.

[brooks85]

Yeah, cuz the stupid people always vote for Democrats. Wonder who this guy voted for?

No not just democrats, stupid people vote for a guy who never even ran a company...
Stupid people vote for a guy who says he can actually "change" the world in 4 years...
Stupid people believe you can pass bills without earmarks, one of obamas big promises


I could keep going on but you get the idea, so the question is who did you vote for?


We know who pavy will vote for because Obama did not crash any airplanes and we all know to run the country you can not have crashed any airplanes like Mccain. Very sound reasoning

[stealthyburrito]

Obama has led all political "hypothetical 2012 matchups" since being elected - apart from the one done right around the mid-terms ... since them he has again pulled out a lead on all Republican candidates.

I have seen nothing from any reputable polling company that shares your view that Every major Rep candidate holds a sizable lead"

there are more then one survey out there that has him down at that time.

here is a blurb:

We have just entered the 2012 presidential election cycle, and the news is grim for the incumbent. While at least one recent poll gives Obama the lead against Sarah Palin, he is trailing in hypothetical match-ups against former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Even worse, only 38% in another recent poll said they believed Obama “deserves re-election.”
Take a look at this categorization of states that is based on the best estimate we can make of President Obama’s pre-election job approval level in each state. The Democratic states are those where Obama is still above 50%; the swing states have Obama between 47% and 50%; and the Republican states measure Obama’s job approval below 47%. Keep in mind that the president’s numbers are probably even worse now; they often drop after a devastating defeat such as the one Democrats suffered on November 2.

here are the two polls the article cites:

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM156_bg_41_questionnaire.html

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/11/04/cnn-poll-obama-vs-palin-in-2012/

as far as now, he is still in quite a bit of trouble. the dems were decimated in the swing states, he stands to lose most of them in the upcoming election. the state chambers of half are states are in complete republican control, while only a third are in democratic control (the rest are split).

keep in mind this is a political science experiment not a polling service. they analyze historical trends in election cycles. atm his approval rating is floating ~50% and the repubs have yet to bring out the big guns. if they can effectively mobilize their party (which will be no easy task, but the economic situation in the upcoming months will dictate whether they can or not) then the white house is theres.

[pavyracer]

From my everyday discussions with everyday people the consensus is GOP doesn't have a charismatic leader to lead them. It's like the Kentucky Derby. Obama is the favorite at 2/1 and there are 5 GOP horses at 10/1 chasing him. The public will propel the favorite to win knowing how well he did in earlier spring races.

[THE PROFIT]

no way Obama loses, dont waste your money

[stealthyburrito]

From my everyday discussions with everyday people the consensus is GOP doesn't have a charismatic leader to lead them. It's like the Kentucky Derby. Obama is the favorite at 2/1 and there are 5 GOP horses at 10/1 chasing him. The public will propel the favorite to win knowing how well he did in earlier spring races.

very true paver, it comes down to the economic condition of the country in the upcoming months. it is their largest hurdle to overcome, but i do believe they can mobilize. obama's campaign showed people that a party divided can mend and unite behind their candidate. he and hilary had a brutal stretch, but hilary backers for the most part were absorbed back into the party and backed him.

[jw]

I think the problem here - as Pavy says - is that Republicans are convinced that everybody MUST see the world the way that they do - they cannot even conceive that anybody could ever vote for this idiot ... when in reality - the majority of people are quite happy with the job that he is doing, his poll numbers are up, his approval rating is up, the economy is getting better, unemployment will be down by the time the election rolls around, the Republicans will not have a valid candidate, and all they will have to throw at him come election time will be the same old "He was not born in America", "His middle name is Hussein", "His name sounds like Osama", crapthat they tried to throw at him last time ... I predict a landslide

[VegasInsider]

It's probably going to be Romney v. Obama - I like Mitt +EV all day long

[SportsBettingPro]

The posted line is fair. It would also be unwise to tie up money for such a long period of time even if there was some minor value.

[Grits n' Gravy]

no way Obama loses, dont waste your money

this is the truth.

romney is likely the republican candidate and he has the personality of a foot. no way in hell is a mormon getting my vote.

[talnted]

im listening to the poly-sci major

puntos

[pavyracer]

GOP needs someone like Reagan to have a chance. You know someone who knows nothing about politics but when put in front of a camera can captivate the crowd with his charm and words.

[muldoon]

Most evangelicals consider Mormonism to be a cult (yeah, I see the irony too).

Have to wonder if they'd look past that and vote purely out of hyped up fear or hate they get spoon fed. They are definitely a large enough voting bloc to make a difference.

[alling]

Are you better off funding books/betting online then 2 years ago? Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. has said he would not support efforts to legalize online gambling. Will you even be able to bet on sports online in 2 years? The trend is not the online gambling friend. Change we can believe in.

[triqy]

hmmm this should be a good bet up for speculation. nice odds

[TexansFan]

GOP needs someone like Reagan to have a chance. You know someone who knows nothing about politics but when put in front of a camera can captivate the crowd with his charm and words.

You just described President Pookie perfectly.

[l7ustin]

obama will win, most presidents that dont suck ass get re-elected. and even some that do suck ass like bush get re-elected too